Geopolitical Alpha An Investment Framework For Predicting
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Forecast geopolitics and markets with this clear and insightful resource Geopolitical Alpha – An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights. Geopolitical Alpha posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from "smoke-filled rooms," and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers. In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate Geopolitical Alpha. In the process, the book discusses: What paradigm shifts will drive investment returns over the next decade Why investment and corporate professionals can no longer treat geopolitics as an exogenous risk How to ignore the media and focus on what drives market narratives that generate returns Perfect for investors, C-suite executives, and investment professionals, Geopolitical Alpha belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and finance.
Forecast geopolitics and markets with this clear and insightful resource Geopolitical Alpha – An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights. Geopolitical Alpha posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from "smoke-filled rooms," and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers. In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate Geopolitical Alpha. In the process, the book discusses: What paradigm shifts will drive investment returns over the next decade Why investment and corporate professionals can no longer treat geopolitics as an exogenous risk How to ignore the media and focus on what drives market narratives that generate returns Perfect for investors, C-suite executives, and investment professionals, Geopolitical Alpha belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and finance.
The Rise of Carry: The Dangerous Consequences of Volatility Suppression and the New Financial Order of Decaying Growth and Recurring Crisis by Tim Lee,Jamie Lee,Kevin Coldiron Pdf
Protect yourself from the next financial meltdown with this game-changing primer on financial markets, the economy—and the meteoric rise of carry. The financial shelves are filled with books that explain how popular carry trading has become in recent years. But none has revealed just how significant a role it plays in the global economy—until now. A groundbreaking book sure to leave its mark in the canon of investing literature, The Rise of Carry explains how carry trading has virtually shaped the global economic picture—one of decaying economic growth, recurring crises, wealth disparity, and, in too many places, social and political upheaval. The authors explain how carry trades work—particularly in the currency and stock markets—and provide a compelling case for how carry trades have come to dominate the entire global business cycle. They provide thorough analyses of critical but often overlooked topics and issues, including: •The active role stock prices play in causing recessions—as opposed to the common belief that recessions cause price crashes •The real driving force behind financial asset prices •The ways that carry, volatility selling, leverage, liquidity, and profitability affect the business cycle •How positive returns to carry over time are related to market volatility—and how central bank policies have supercharged these returns Simply put, carry trading is now the primary determinant of the global business cycle—a pattern of long, steady but unspectacular expansions punctuated by catastrophic crises. The Rise of Carry provides foundational knowledge and expert insights you need to protect yourself from what have come to be common market upheavals—as well as the next major crisis.
Brings global macro trading down to earth for individual and professional traders, investors and asset managers, as well being a useful reference handbook Global Macro Trading is an indispensable guide for traders and investors who want to trade Global Macro – it provides Trading Strategies and overviews of the four asset classes in Global Macro which include equities, currencies, fixed income and commodities. Greg Gliner, who has worked for some of the largest global macro hedge funds, shares ways in which an array of global macro participants seek to capitalize on this strategy, while also serving as a useful reference tool. Whether you are a retail investor, manage your own portfolio, or a finance professional, this book equips you with the knowledge and skills you need to capitalize in global macro. Provides a comprehensive overview of global macro trading, which consists of portfolio construction, risk management, biases and essentials to query building Equips the reader with introductions and tools for each of the four asset classes; equities, currencies, fixed income and commodities Arms you with a range of powerful global-macro trading and investing strategies, that include introductions to discretionary and systematic macro Introduces the role of central banking, importance of global macroeconomic data releases and demographics, as they relate to global macro trading
PRAISE FOR THE LONG GOOD BUY: "Oppenheimer offers brilliant insights, sage advice and entertaining anecdotes. Anyone wishing to understand how financial markets behave – and misbehave – should read this book now." Stephen D. King, economist and author of Grave New World: The End of Globalisation, the Return of History "Peter has always been one of the masters of dissecting financial markets performance into an understandable narrative, and in this book, he pulls together much of his great thinking and style from his career, and it should be useful for anyone trying to understand what drives markets, especially equities." Lord Jim O'Neill, Chair, Chatham House "A deeply insightful analysis of market cycles and their drivers that really does add to our practical understanding of what moves markets and long-term investment returns." Keith Skeoch, CEO, Standard Life Aberdeen "This book eloquently blends the author's vast experience with behavioural finance insights to document and understand financial booms and busts. The book should be basic reading for any student of finance." Elias Papaioannou, Professor of Economics, London Business School "This is an excellent book, capturing the insights of a leading market practitioner within the structured analytical framework he has developed over many years. It offers a lively and unique perspective on how markets work and where they are headed." Huw Pill, Senior Lecturer, Harvard Business School "The Long Good Buy is an excellent introduction to understanding the cycles, trends and crises in financial markets over the past 100 years. Its purpose is to help investors assess risk and the probabilities of different outcomes. It is lucidly written in a simple logical way, requires no mathematical expertise and draws on an amazing collection of historical data and research. For me it is the best and most comprehensive introduction to the subject that exists." Lord Brian Griffiths, Chairman - Centre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, Oxford
Author : Joseph Wang Publisher : Joseph Wang Page : 196 pages File Size : 48,8 Mb Release : 2020-01-18 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9780999136751
Central banking is magic. With a few words, the Fed can lift the stock market out of desperation and catapult it towards euphoric highs. With a few keystrokes, the Fed can conjure up trillions of dollars and fund virtually unlimited Federal spending. And with a few poor decisions, the Fed can plunge the entire world into a recession. The Federal Reserve is one of the most powerful institutions in the world, and also one of the most difficult to understand. The Fed acts through its Open Markets Desk, which sits at the heart of the global financial system as the world’s ultimate and limitless provider of dollars. On behalf of policy makers, the Desk gathers market intelligence from all the major market participants, sifts through reams of internal data, and works behind the scenes keep the financial system intact. It is responsible for all of the Fed's market operations, from trillions in quantitative easing to hundreds of billions in repo and FX-swap loans. The financial crises of 2008 and 2020 abated only through the emergency interventions of the Desk. Joseph Wang spent five years studying the monetary system as a trader on the Desk. From that vantage point, Joseph saw firsthand how the Fed operates and how the financial system really works. This book is a distillation of his experience that aims to educate and demystify. After reading this book, you will understand how money is created, how the global dollar system is structured, and how it all fits into the broader financial system. The views in this book do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.
Inside the House of Money lifts the veil on the typically opaque world of hedge funds, offering a rare glimpse at how today's highest paid money managers approach their craft. Author Steven Drobny demystifies how these star traders make billions for well-heeled investors, revealing their theories, strategies and approaches to markets. Drobny, cofounder of Drobny Global Advisors, an international macroeconomic research and advisory firm, has tapped into his network and beyond in order assemble this collection of thirteen interviews with the industry's best minds. Along the way, you'll get an inside look at firsthand trading experiences through some of the major world financial crises of the last few decades. Whether Russian bonds, Pakistani stocks, Southeast Asian currencies or stakes in African brewing companies, no market or instrument is out of bounds for these elite global macro hedge fund managers. Highly accessible and filled with in-depth expert opinion, Inside the House of Money is a must-read for financial professionals and anyone else interested in understanding the complexities at stake in world financial markets. "The ruminations of supposedly hush-hush hedge fund operators are richly illuminating." --New York Times
Michael Chandler,Martin Gellert,Alan M. Lambowitz,Phoebe A. Rice,Suzanne B. Sandmeyer
Author : Michael Chandler,Martin Gellert,Alan M. Lambowitz,Phoebe A. Rice,Suzanne B. Sandmeyer Publisher : John Wiley & Sons Page : 1321 pages File Size : 44,8 Mb Release : 2020-07-24 Category : Science ISBN : 9781555819217
Mobile DNA III by Michael Chandler,Martin Gellert,Alan M. Lambowitz,Phoebe A. Rice,Suzanne B. Sandmeyer Pdf
An exploration of the raw power of genetic material to refashion itself to any purpose... Virtually all organisms contain multiple mobile DNAs that can move from place to place, and in some organisms, mobile DNA elements make up a significant portion of the genome. Mobile DNA III provides a comprehensive review of recent research, including findings suggesting the important role that mobile elements play in genome evolution and stability. Editor-in-Chief Nancy L. Craig assembled a team of multidisciplinary experts to develop this cutting-edge resource that covers the specific molecular mechanisms involved in recombination, including a detailed structural analysis of the enzymes responsible presents a detailed account of the many different recombination systems that can rearrange genomes examines the tremendous impact of mobile DNA in virtually all organisms Mobile DNA III is valuable as an in-depth supplemental reading for upper level life sciences students and as a reference for investigators exploring new biological systems. Biomedical researchers will find documentation of recent advances in understanding immune-antigen conflict between host and pathogen. It introduces biotechnicians to amazing tools for in vivo control of designer DNAs. It allows specialists to pick and choose advanced reviews of specific elements and to be drawn in by unexpected parallels and contrasts among the elements in diverse organisms. Mobile DNA III provides the most lucid reviews of these complex topics available anywhere.
The Investor's Guide to Active Asset Allocation by Martin Pring Pdf
The Investor's Guide to Active Asset Allocation offers you the background and analytical tools required to take full advantage of the opportunities found in asset allocation, sector rotation, ETFs, and the business cycle. Written by renowned technical analyst and best-selling author Martin Pring, the book presents Pring's unique Six Business Cycle Stages, explaining why certain asset categories perform better or worse during different phases of the business cycle, and demonstrating how to use intermarket tools and technical analysis to recognize what business cycle stage the market is in. Pring shows you how to apply active asset allocation, rotating among sectors and major markets (stocks, bonds, and futures) as the business cycle stage changes, to develop optimum allocation strategies. He focuses on exchange traded funds (ETFs) as the best vehicle for asset allocation rotation, since they are easily traded and have much more flexibility than mutual funds. He also offers specific guidelines for what sectors to be in, depending on the business cycle stage. The Investor's Guide to Active Asset Allocation provides you with proven investing expertise on: Basic Principles of Money Management How the Business Cycle Drives the Prices of Bonds, Stocks, and Commodities The Pring Six Business Cycle Stages Technical Tools that Help to Identify Trend Reversals Putting Things into a Long-Term Perspective Recognizing Stages Using Easy-to-Follow Indicators as well as Models How the Ten Market Sectors Fit into the Rotation Process How Individual Sectors and Groups Performed in Each of the Six Stages Asset Allocation for Specific Stages This dynamic investing resource also gives you access to downloadable content, which contains supplementary information that will help you execute the strategies described in the book. You'll find links to useful websites that contain a wide-ranging library of ETFs, database sources, historical data files in Excel format, and a collection of historical multi-colored PowerPoint charts. An essential tool for improving your analytical skills, The Investor's Guide to Active Asset Allocation shows you how to move from a passive to an active allocation model and explains the link between business cycle and stock market cycle for more effective - and profitable - trading and investing.
The Secrets of Economic Indicators by Bernard Baumohl Pdf
Every day, stocks, bonds, and currencies bounce wildly in response to new economic indicators. Money managers obsess over those statistics, because they provide crucial clues about the future of the economy and the financial markets. Now "you "can use these indicators to make smarter investment decisions, just like the professionals do.You don't need an economics degree, or a CPA... just this easy-to-use book. Former "TIME "Magazine senior economics reporter Bernard Baumohl has done the impossible: he's made economic indicators "fascinating." Using real-world examples and stories, Baumohl illuminates every U.S. and foreign indicator that matters.Where to find them.What they look like. What the insiders know about their track records. And "exactly "how to interpret them. Whether you're an investor, broker, portfolio manager, researcher, journalist, or student, you'll find this book indispensable.Nobody can predict the future with certainty. But "The Secrets of Economic Indicators "will get you as close as humanly possible. What the numbers "really "mean... ...to stocks, bonds, rates, currencies, and you Ahead of the curve: spotting turning points Calling recessions and recoveries in time to profit from them Leading indicators: where's the economy "really "heading Decoding initial unemployment claims, housing starts, the yield curve, and other predictors Beyond the borders Why foreign indicators are increasingly important-and how to use them Making sense of indicators in conflict What to do when the numbers disagree Finding the data Free web resources for the latest economic dataInvestments ""This is the most up-to-date guide to economic indicators and their importance to financial markets in print. For anyone trying to follow the economic data, this should be next to your "computer so that you can understand and find the data on the Internet." David Wyss, Chief Economist, Standard and Poor's ""I find Baumohl's writing fascinating. Just about anyone who's serious about understanding which way the economy is headed will want to read this book. It could be a classic."" Harry Domash, Columnist for MSN Money and Publisher, Winning Investing Newsletter ""Every business person or investor should keep a copy of Baumohl's book close-at-hand. It is great, at long last, to have someone who has eliminated what may have been so perplexing to so many and to have done so with such remarkable clarity."" Hugh Johnson, Chief Investment Officer, First Albany ""Bernie Baumohl has written a "must read" educational and reference book that every individual investor will find indispensable for watching, monitoring, and interpreting the markets."" Allen Sinai, President and Chief Global Economist, Decision Economics, Inc. ""Baumohl has a gift for taking a complicated subject and allowing it to read like a fast-moving novel. I recommend this book if you care about your future finances."" Morris E. Lasky, CEO, Lodging Unlimited, Inc.-manager and consultant for $6 billion in hotel assets; Chairman, Lodging Conference; Chairman, International Hotel Conference ""I think this is an excellent book. It's well written, accessible to a variety of readers, deals with an interesting and important subject, and covers the topic well. It deserves to get a lot of notice and use."" D. Quinn Mills, Alfred J. Weatherhead Jr., Professor of Business Administration, Harvard Business School "The fascinating, plain-English guide to economic indicators: what they mean, and how to use them." "Unemployment. Inflation. Consumer confidence. Retail sales.".. Every morning brings new economic statistics. Which economic indicators really matter? What do they mean for stocks, bonds, interest rates, currencies..."your portfolio?" How can you use them to make faster, smarter investment decisions? Simple, clear, non-technical, friendly, "usable."..the "only "book of its kind! By former renowned "TIME "Magazine economics journalist Bernard Baumohl. (c) Copyright Pearson Education. All rights reserved.
Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns: Evidence from Inter-Korea Geopolitics by Seungho Jung,Jongmin Lee,Seohyun Lee Pdf
We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed using automated keyword searches in South Korean media. The GPRNK index, designed to capture both upside and downside risk, corroborates that geopolitical risk sharply increases with the occurrence of nuclear tests, missile launches, or military confrontations, and decreases significantly around the times of summit meetings or multilateral talks. Using firm-level data, we find that heightened geopolitical risk reduces stock returns, and that the reductions in stock returns are greater especially for large firms, firms with a higher share of domestic investors, and for firms with a higher ratio of fixed assets to total assets. These results suggest that international portfolio diversification and investment irreversibility are important channels through which geopolitical risk affects stock returns.
Beyond Diversification: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Asset Allocation by Sebastien Page Pdf
Generate solid, long-term profits with a portfolio allocated for your investing needs Asset allocation is the key to investing performance. Unfortunately, no single approach works perfectly—developing the right balance requires a clear-eyed look at the many models available to you, various investing methodologies, and your or your client’s level of risk tolerance. And that’s where this important guide comes in. Written by a leading allocation expert from T. Rowe Price, Beyond Diversification provides the knowledge, insights, and approaches you need to make the best allocation decisions for your goals. This deep dive into the how’s and why’s of asset allocation is organized by the three decisive components of a successfully allocated portfolio: Return Forecasting discusses the desired return investors seek. Risk Forecasting covers the level of risk investors are prepared to assume to achieve that return. Portfolio Construction calibrates the stock-bond mix that balances the risks and returns. With examples from T. Rowe Price’s asset allocation team showing you how the process works in the real world, Beyond Diversification provides everything you need to find the asset combination that will deliver the results you seek. You’ll learn how to choose the right tradeoffs, build the most effective asset allocation combination for your needs, and dramatically increase your odds of success for the long run.
The Hunt for Unicorns by Winston Ma,Paul Downs Pdf
Who holds the power in financial markets? For many, the answer would probably be the large investment banks, big asset managers, and hedge funds that are often in the media's spotlight. But more and more a new group of sovereign investors, which includes some of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds, government pension funds, central bank reserve funds, state-owned enterprises, and other sovereign capital-enabled entities, have emerged to become the most influential capital markets players and investment firms, with $30 trillion in assets under management (“super asset owners”). Their ample resources, preference for lower profile, passive investing, their long-time horizon and adherence to sustainability as well as their need to diversify globally and by sector have helped to transform the investment world and, in particular, private markets for digital companies. They have helped create and sustain an environment that has fostered the rise of the likes of Uber, Alibaba, Spotify and other transformative players in the digital economy, while providing their founders and business models the benefit of long-term capital. Despite this increasingly important impact, sovereign investors remain mostly unknown, often maintaining a low profile in global markets. For the same reason, they’re also among the most widely misunderstood, as many view investments made by sovereign investors as purely driven by political aims. The general perception is that most sovereign investors lack transparency and have questionable governance controls, causing an investee nation to fear exposure to risks of unfair competition, data security, corruption, and non-financially or non-economically motivated investments. The current global tensions around the AI race and tech competition – and now the corona virus pandemic – have exacerbated such misperceptions, spawning controversies around sovereign investors and capital markets, governments, new technologies, cross-border investments, and related laws and regulations. As such, sovereign capital and the global digital economy are undergoing an unprecedented, contentious moment. In short, the emergence of sovereign funds symbolizes a major shift of the world’s economic power. For the first time, investment funds from developing countries are playing with OECD financial giants as equals. Furthermore, their investments into high tech enable them to participate at the cutting-edge of the fourth industrial revolution, challenging traditional innovation powerhouses like the US and Germany. For all stakeholders, from tech unicorns, VC funds, asset managers, financial firms, to policymakers, law firms, academics, and the general public, this is the must-have book to get to know these new venture capitalists and “super asset owners”.
