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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 152 pages File Size : 41,9 Mb Release : 2018-04-18 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781484338292
Global Financial Stability Report, April 2018 by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf
The April 2018 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) finds that short-term risks to financial stability have increased somewhat since the previous GFSR. Medium-term risks are still elevated as financial vulnerabilities, which have built up during the years of accommodative policies, could mean a bumpy road ahead and put growth at risk. This GFSR also examines the short- and medium-term implications for downside risks to growth and financial stability of the riskiness of corporate credit allocation. It documents the cyclical nature of the riskiness of corporate credit allocation at the global and country levels and its sensitivity to financial conditions, lending standards, and policy and institutional settings. Another chapter analyzes whether and how house prices move in tandem across countries and major cities around the world—that is, global house price synchronicity.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 109 pages File Size : 53,7 Mb Release : 2019-10-16 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781498324021
Global Financial Stability Report, October 2019 by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf
The October 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) identifies the current key vulnerabilities in the global financial system as the rise in corporate debt burdens, increasing holdings of riskier and more illiquid assets by institutional investors, and growing reliance on external borrowing by emerging and frontier market economies. The report proposes that policymakers mitigate these risks through stricter supervisory and macroprudential oversight of firms, strengthened oversight and disclosure for institutional investors, and the implementation of prudent sovereign debt management practices and frameworks for emerging and frontier market economies.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 94 pages File Size : 52,7 Mb Release : 2012-04-18 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781616352479
Global Financial Stability Report, April 2012 by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf
The April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report assesses changes in risks to financial stability over the past six months, focusing on sovereign vulnerabilities, risks stemming from private sector deleveraging, and assessing the continued resilience of emerging markets. The report probes the implications of recent reforms in the financial system for market perception of safe assets, and investigates the growing public and private costs of increased longevity risk from aging populations.
Author : International Monetary Fund Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 92 pages File Size : 44,7 Mb Release : 2021-04-06 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781513569673
Global Financial Stability Report, April 2021 by International Monetary Fund Pdf
Extraordinary policy measures have eased financial conditions and supported the economy, helping to contain financial stability risks. Chapter 1 warns that there is a pressing need to act to avoid a legacy of vulnerabilities while avoiding a broad tightening of financial conditions. Actions taken during the pandemic may have unintended consequences such as stretched valuations and rising financial vulnerabilities. The recovery is also expected to be asynchronous and divergent between advanced and emerging market economies. Given large external financing needs, several emerging markets face challenges, especially if a persistent rise in US rates brings about a repricing of risk and tighter financial conditions. The corporate sector in many countries is emerging from the pandemic overindebted, with notable differences depending on firm size and sector. Concerns about the credit quality of hard-hit borrowers and profitability are likely to weigh on the risk appetite of banks. Chapter 2 studies leverage in the nonfinancial private sector before and during the COVID-19 crisis, pointing out that policymakers face a trade-off between boosting growth in the short term by facilitating an easing of financial conditions and containing future downside risks. This trade-off may be amplified by the existing high and rapidly building leverage, increasing downside risks to future growth. The appropriate timing for deployment of macroprudential tools should be country-specific, depending on the pace of recovery, vulnerabilities, and policy tools available. Chapter 3 turns to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the commercial real estate sector. While there is little evidence of large price misalignments at the onset of the pandemic, signs of overvaluation have now emerged in some economies. Misalignments in commercial real estate prices, especially if they interact with other vulnerabilities, increase downside risks to future growth due to the possibility of sharp price corrections.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 135 pages File Size : 52,9 Mb Release : 2016-04-11 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781498363280
Global Financial Stability Report, April 2016 by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf
The current Global Financial Stability Report (April 2016) finds that global financial stability risks have risen since the last report in October 2015. The new report finds that the outlook has deteriorated in advanced economies because of heightened uncertainty and setbacks to growth and confidence, while declines in oil and commodity prices and slower growth have kept risks elevated in emerging markets. These developments have tightened financial conditions, reduced risk appetite, raised credit risks, and stymied balance sheet repair. A broad-based policy response is needed to secure financial stability. Advanced economies must deal with crisis legacy issues, emerging markets need to bolster their resilience to global headwinds, and the resilience of market liquidity should be enhanced. The report also examines financial spillovers from emerging market economies and finds that they have risen substantially. This implies that when assessing macro-financial conditions, policymakers may need to increasingly take into account economic developments in emerging market economies. Finally, the report assesses changes in the systemic importance of insurers, finding that across advanced economies the contribution of life insurers to systemic risk has increased in recent years. The results suggest that supervisors and regulators should take a more macroprudential approach to the sector.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 99 pages File Size : 43,8 Mb Release : 2018-10-10 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781484375594
Global Financial Stability Report, October 2018 by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf
In the 10 years since the global financial crisis, regulatory frameworks have been enhanced and the banking system has become stronger, but new vulnerabilities have emerged, and the resilience of the global financial system has yet to be tested.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 126 pages File Size : 54,6 Mb Release : 2017-04-19 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781475590722
Global Financial Stability Report, April 2017 by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf
Financial stability has continued to improve since the October 2016 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR). Economic activity has gained momentum, as outlined in the April 2017 World Economic Outlook (WEO), amid broadly accommodative monetary and financial conditions, spurring hopes for reflation. Chapter 2 analyzes the potential long-term impact of a scenario of sustained low growth and low real and nominal rates for the business models of financial institutions and the products offered by the financial sector. Chapter 3 examines whether countries still retain influence over their domestic financial conditions in a globally integrated financial system. The chapter develops financial conditions indices that make it possible to compare a large set of advanced and emerging market economies.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Page : 118 pages File Size : 49,9 Mb Release : 2020-10-23 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 1513554220
Global Financial Stability Report, October 2020 by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf
Near-term global financial stability risks have been contained as an unprecedented policy response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has helped avert a financial meltdown and maintain the flow of credit to the economy. For the first time, many emerging market central banks have launched asset purchase programs to support the smooth functioning of financial markets and the overall economy. But the outlook remains highly uncertain, and vulnerabilities are rising, representing potential headwinds to recovery. The report presents an assessment of the real-financial disconnect, as well as forward-looking analysis of nonfinancial firms, banks, and emerging market capital flows. After the outbreak, firms’ cash flows were adversely affected as economic activity declined sharply. More vulnerable firms—those with weaker solvency and liquidity positions and smaller size—experienced greater financial stress than their peers in the early stages of the crisis. As the crisis unfolds, corporate liquidity pressures may morph into insolvencies, especially if the recovery is delayed. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are more vulnerable than large firms with access to capital markets. Although the global banking system is well capitalized, some banking systems may experience capital shortfalls in an adverse scenario, even with the currently deployed policy measures. The report also assesses the pandemic’s impact on firms’ environmental performance to gauge the extent to which the crisis may result in a reversal of the gains posted in recent years.
The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques,Qianying Chen,Claudio Raddatz,Jérôme Vandenbussche,Peichu Xie Pdf
We explore empirically how the time-varying allocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous credit quality matters for financial stability outcomes. Using firm-level data for 55 countries over 1991-2016, we show that the riskiness of credit allocation, captured by Greenwood and Hanson (2013)’s ISS indicator, helps predict downside risks to GDP growth and systemic banking crises, two to three years ahead. Our analysis indicates that the riskiness of credit allocation is both a measure of corporate vulnerability and of investor sentiment. Economic forecasters wrongly predict a positive association between the riskiness of credit allocation and future growth, suggesting a flawed expectations process.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 160 pages File Size : 54,9 Mb Release : 2013-04-17 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781475589580
Global Financial Stability Report, April 2013 by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf
The Global Financial Stability Report examines current risks facing the global financial system and policy actions that may mitigate these. It analyzes the key challenges facing financial and nonfinancial firms as they continue to repair their balance sheets. Chapter 2 takes a closer look at whether sovereign credit default swaps markets are good indicators of sovereign credit risk. Chapter 3 examines unconventional monetary policy in some depth, including the policies pursued by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the U.S. Federal Reserve.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept. Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 106 pages File Size : 44,6 Mb Release : 2019-04-10 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781498302135
Global Financial Stability Report, April 2019 by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept. Pdf
The April 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) finds that despite significant variability over the past two quarters, financial conditions remain accommodative. As a result, financial vulnerabilities have continued to build in the sovereign, corporate, and nonbank financial sectors in several systemically important countries, leading to elevated medium-term risks. The report attempts to provide a comprehensive assessment of these vulnerabilities while focusing specifically on corporate sector debt in advanced economies, the sovereign–financial sector nexus in the euro area, China’s financial imbalances, volatile portfolio flows to emerging markets, and downside risks to the housing market. These vulnerabilities require action by policymakers, including through the clear communication of any changes in their monetary policy outlook, the deployment and expansion of macroprudential tools, the stepping up of measures to repair public and private sector balance sheets, and the strengthening of emerging market resilience to foreign portfolio outflows. This GFSR also takes an in depth look at house prices at risk, a measure of downside risks to future house price growth—using theory, insights from past analyses, and new statistical techniques applied to 32 advanced and emerging market economies and major cities. The chapter finds that lower house price momentum, overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions predict heightened downside risks to house prices up to three years ahead. The measure of house prices at risk helps forecast downside risks to GDP growth and adds to early-warning models for financial crises. Policymakers can use estimates of house prices at risk to complement other surveillance indicators of housing market vulnerabilities and guide macroprudential policy actions aimed at building buffers and reducing vulnerabilities. Downside risks to house prices could also be relevant for monetary policymakers when forming their views on the downside risks to the economic and inflation outlook. Authorities considering measures to manage capital flows might also find such information useful when a surge in capital inflows increases downside risks to house prices and when other policy options are limited.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept. Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 139 pages File Size : 53,6 Mb Release : 2017-10-11 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781484308394
Global Financial Stability Report, October 2017 by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept. Pdf
The October 2017 Global Financial Stability Report finds that the global financial system continues to strengthen in response to extraordinary policy support, regulatory enhancements, and the cyclical upturn in growth. It also includes a chapter that examines the short- and medium-term implications for economic growth and financial stability of the past decades’ rise in household debt. It documents large differences in household debt-to-GDP ratios across countries but a common increasing trajectory that was moderated but not reversed by the global financial crisis. Another chapter develops a new macroeconomic measure of financial stability by linking financial conditions to the probability distribution of future GDP growth and applies it to a set of 20 major advanced and emerging market economies. The chapter shows that changes in financial conditions shift the whole distribution of future GDP growth.
Global Financial Stability Report, October 2021 by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. Pdf
Financial stability risks have been contained so far, reflecting ongoing policy support and a rebound in the global economy earlier this year. Chapter 1 explains that financial conditions have eased further in net in advanced economies but changed little in emerging markets. However, the optimism that propelled markets earlier in the year has faded on growing concerns about the strength of the global recovery, and ongoing supply chain disruptions intensified inflation concerns. Signs of stretched asset valuations in some market segments persist, and pockets of vulnerabilities remain in the nonbank financial sector; recovery is uneven in the corporate sector. Chapter 2 discusses the opportunities and challenges of the crypto ecosystem. Crypto asset providers’ lack of operational or cyber resilience poses risks, and significant data gaps imperil financial integrity. Crypto assets in emerging markets may accelerate dollarization risks. Chapter 3 shows that sustainable funds can support the global transition to a green economy but must be scaled up to have a major impact. It also discusses how a disorderly transition could disrupt the broader investment fund sector in the future.
Author : International Monetary Fund Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 184 pages File Size : 50,6 Mb Release : 2014-04-09 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781475577662
Global Financial Stability Report, April 2014 by International Monetary Fund Pdf
The April 2014 Global Financial Stability Report finds that, despite much progress, the global financial system remains in a transitional period with stability conditions far from normal. Advanced and emerging market economies alike need to make a successful shift from liquidity- to growth-driven markets, which will require a number of elements, including a normalization of U.S. monetary policy; financial rebalancing in emerging markets; further progress in the euro area integration; and continued implementation of “Abenomics” in Japan. This report also examines how changes in the investor base and financial deepening affect emerging market economies as well as looks at the issue of banks considered too important to fail, providing new estimates of the implicit funding subsidy these banks receive.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 162 pages File Size : 52,7 Mb Release : 2015-04-15 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781475547580
Global Financial Stability Report, April 2015 by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf
The current report finds that, despite an improvement in economic prospects in some key advanced economies, new challenges to global financial stability have arisen. The global financial system is being buffeted by a series of changes, including lower oil prices and, in some cases, diverging growth patterns and monetary policies. Expectations for rising U.S. policy rates sparked a significant appreciation of the U.S. dollar, while long term bond yields in many advanced economies have decreased—and have turned negative for almost a third of euro area sovereign bonds—on disinflation concerns and the prospect of continued monetary accommodation. Emerging markets are caught in these global cross currents, with some oil exporters and other facing new stability challenges, while others have gained more policy space as a result of lower fuel prices and reduced inflationary pressures. The report also examines changes in international banking since the global financial crisis and finds that these changes are likely to promote more stable bank lending in host countries. Finally, the report finds that the asset management industry needs to strengthen its oversight framework to address financial stability risks from incentive problems between end-investors and portfolio managers and the risk of runs due to liquidity mismatches.