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The Return of the Policy That Shall Not Be Named: Principles of Industrial Policy

Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov
The Return of the Policy That Shall Not Be Named Principles of Industrial Policy Book PDF

Author : Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 79 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2019-03-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498305563

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The Return of the Policy That Shall Not Be Named: Principles of Industrial Policy by Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov Pdf

Industrial policy is tainted with bad reputation among policymakers and academics and is often viewed as the road to perdition for developing economies. Yet the success of the Asian Miracles with industrial policy stands as an uncomfortable story that many ignore or claim it cannot be replicated. Using a theory and empirical evidence, we argue that one can learn more from miracles than failures. We suggest three key principles behind their success: (i) the support of domestic producers in sophisticated industries, beyond the initial comparative advantage; (ii) export orientation; and (iii) the pursuit of fierce competition with strict accountability.

Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years?

Leandro Medina,Mr.Friedrich Schneider
Shadow Economies Around the World What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years Book PDF

Author : Leandro Medina,Mr.Friedrich Schneider
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 114 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2018-01-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484339176

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Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years? by Leandro Medina,Mr.Friedrich Schneider Pdf

We undertake an extended discussion of the latest developments about the existing and new estimation methods of the shadow economy. New results on the shadow economy for 158 countries all over the world are presented over 1991 to 2015. Strengths and weaknesses of these methods are assessed and a critical comparison and evaluation of the methods is carried out. The average size of the shadow economy of the 158 countries over 1991 to 2015 is 31.9 percent. The largest ones are Zimbabwe with 60.6 percent, and Bolivia with 62.3 percent of GDP. The lowest ones are Austria with 8.9 percent, and Switzerland with 7.2 percent. The new methods, especially the new macro method, Currency Demand Approach (CDA) and Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) in a structured hybrid-model based estimation procedure, are promising approaches from an econometric standpoint, alongside some new micro estimates. These estimations come quite close to others used by statistical offices or based on surveys.

Breaking Through the Zero Lower Bound

Ruchir Agarwal
Breaking Through the Zero Lower Bound Book PDF

Author : Ruchir Agarwal
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2015-10-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513536910

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Breaking Through the Zero Lower Bound by Ruchir Agarwal Pdf

There has been much discussion about eliminating the “zero lower bound” by eliminating paper currency. But such a radical and difficult approach as eliminating paper currency is not necessary. Much as during the Great Depression—when countries were able to revive their economies by going off the gold standard—all that is needed to empower monetary policy to cut interest rates as much as needed for economic stimulus now is to change from a paper standard to an electronic money standard, and to be willing to have paper currency go away from par. This paper develops the idea further and shows how such a mechanism can be implemented in a minimalist way by using a time-varying paper currency deposit fee between private banks and the central bank. This allows the central bank to create a crawling-peg exchange rate between paper currency and electronic money; the paper currency interest rate can be either lowered below zero or raised above zero. Such an ability to vary the paper currency interest rate along with other key interest rates, makes it possible to stimulate investment and net exports as much as needed to revive the economy, even when inflation, interest rates, and economic activity are quite low, as they are currently in many countries. The paper also examines different options available to the central bank to return to par when negative interest rates are no longer needed, and the associated implications for the financial sector and debt contracts. Finally, the paper discusses various legal, political, and economic challenges of putting in place such a framework and how policymakers could address them.

Usability of Bank Capital Buffers: The Role of Market Expectations

José Abad,Antonio I Garcia Pascual
Usability of Bank Capital Buffers The Role of Market Expectations Book PDF

Author : José Abad,Antonio I Garcia Pascual
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 61 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2022-01-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781616358938

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Usability of Bank Capital Buffers: The Role of Market Expectations by José Abad,Antonio I Garcia Pascual Pdf

Following the COVID shock, supervisors encouraged banks to use capital buffers to support the recovery. However, banks have been reluctant to do so. Provided the market expects a bank to rebuild its buffers, any draw-down will open up a capital shortfall that will weigh on its share price. Therefore, a bank will only decide to use its buffers if the value creation from a larger loan book offsets the costs associated with a capital shortfall. Using market expectations, we calibrate a framework for assessing the usability of buffers. Our results suggest that the cases in which the use of buffers make economic sense are rare in practice.

A Survey of Research on Retail Central Bank Digital Currency

Mr.John Kiff,Jihad Alwazir,Sonja Davidovic,Aquiles Farias,Mr.Ashraf Khan,Mr.Tanai Khiaonarong,Majid Malaika,Mr.Hunter K Monroe,Nobu Sugimoto,Hervé Tourpe,Peter Zhou
A Survey of Research on Retail Central Bank Digital Currency Book PDF

Author : Mr.John Kiff,Jihad Alwazir,Sonja Davidovic,Aquiles Farias,Mr.Ashraf Khan,Mr.Tanai Khiaonarong,Majid Malaika,Mr.Hunter K Monroe,Nobu Sugimoto,Hervé Tourpe,Peter Zhou
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 66 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2020-06-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513547787

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A Survey of Research on Retail Central Bank Digital Currency by Mr.John Kiff,Jihad Alwazir,Sonja Davidovic,Aquiles Farias,Mr.Ashraf Khan,Mr.Tanai Khiaonarong,Majid Malaika,Mr.Hunter K Monroe,Nobu Sugimoto,Hervé Tourpe,Peter Zhou Pdf

This paper examines key considerations around central bank digital currency (CBDC) for use by the general public, based on a comprehensive review of recent research, central bank experiments, and ongoing discussions among stakeholders. It looks at the reasons why central banks are exploring retail CBDC issuance, policy and design considerations; legal, governance and regulatory perspectives; plus cybersecurity and other risk considerations. This paper makes a contribution to the CBDC literature by suggesting a structured framework to organize discussions on whether or not to issue CBDC, with an operational focus and a project management perspective.

Financial Inclusion: What Have We Learned So Far? What Do We Have to Learn?

Adolfo Barajas,Thorsten Beck,Mohammed Belhaj,Sami Ben Naceur
Financial Inclusion What Have We Learned So Far What Do We Have to Learn Book PDF

Author : Adolfo Barajas,Thorsten Beck,Mohammed Belhaj,Sami Ben Naceur
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 51 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2020-08-07
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1513553003

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Financial Inclusion: What Have We Learned So Far? What Do We Have to Learn? by Adolfo Barajas,Thorsten Beck,Mohammed Belhaj,Sami Ben Naceur Pdf

The past two decades have seen a rapid increase in interest in financial inclusion, both from policymakers and researchers. This paper surveys the main findings from the literature, documenting the trends over time and gaps that have arisen across regions, income levels, and gender, among others. It points out that structural, as well as policy-related, factors, such as encouraging banking competition or channeling government payments through bank accounts, play an important role, and describes the potential macro and microeconomic benefits that can be derived from greater financial inclusion. It argues that policy should aim to identify and reduce frictions holding back financial inclusion, rather than targeting specific levels of inclusion. Finally, it suggests areas for future research.

NAFTA to USMCA: What is Gained?

Mary E. Burfisher,Frederic Lambert,Mr.Troy D Matheson
NAFTA to USMCA What is Gained Book PDF

Author : Mary E. Burfisher,Frederic Lambert,Mr.Troy D Matheson
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2019-03-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498303286

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NAFTA to USMCA: What is Gained? by Mary E. Burfisher,Frederic Lambert,Mr.Troy D Matheson Pdf

The United States – Mexico – Canada Agreement (USMCA) was signed on November 30, 2018 and aims to replace and modernize the North-American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). This paper uses a global, multisector, computable-general-equilibrium model to provide an analytical assessment of five key provisions in the new agreement, including tighter rules of origin in the automotive, textiles and apparel sectors, more liberalized agricultural trade, and other trade facilitation measures. The results show that together these provisions would adversely affect trade in the automotive, textiles and apparel sectors, while generating modest aggregate gains in terms of welfare, mostly driven by improved goods market access, with a negligible effect on real GDP. The welfare benefits from USMCA would be greatly enhanced with the elimination of U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada and Mexico and the elimination of the Canadian and Mexican import surtaxes imposed after the U.S. tariffs were put in place.

Cash Use Across Countries and the Demand for Central Bank Digital Currency

Mr.Tanai Khiaonarong,David Humphrey
Cash Use Across Countries and the Demand for Central Bank Digital Currency Book PDF

Author : Mr.Tanai Khiaonarong,David Humphrey
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 43 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2019-03-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484399606

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Cash Use Across Countries and the Demand for Central Bank Digital Currency by Mr.Tanai Khiaonarong,David Humphrey Pdf

The level and trend in cash use in a country will influence the demand for central bank digital currency (CBDC). While access to digital currency will be more convenient than traveling to an ATM, it only makes CBDC like a bank debit card—not better. Demand for digital currency will thus be weak in countries where cash use is already very low, due to a preference for cash substitutes (cards, electronic money, mobile phone payments). Where cash use is very high, demand should be stronger, due to a lack of cash substitutes. As the demand for CBDC is tied to the current level of cash use, we estimate the level and trend in cash use for 11 countries using four different measures. A tentative forecast of cash use is also made. After showing that declining cash use is largely associated with demographic change, we tie the level of cash use to the likely demand for CBDC in different countries. In this process, we suggest that one measure of cash use is more useful than the others. If cash is important for monetary policy, payment instrument competition, or as an alternative payment instrument in the event of operational problems with privately supplied payment methods, the introduction of CBDC may best be introduced before cash substitutes become so ubiquitous that the viability of CBDC could be in doubt.

Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies Remain Large: An Update Based on Country-Level Estimates

Mr.David Coady,Ian Parry,Nghia-Piotr Le,Baoping Shang
Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies Remain Large An Update Based on Country Level Estimates Book PDF

Author : Mr.David Coady,Ian Parry,Nghia-Piotr Le,Baoping Shang
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 39 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2019-05-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484393178

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Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies Remain Large: An Update Based on Country-Level Estimates by Mr.David Coady,Ian Parry,Nghia-Piotr Le,Baoping Shang Pdf

This paper updates estimates of fossil fuel subsidies, defined as fuel consumption times the gap between existing and efficient prices (i.e., prices warranted by supply costs, environmental costs, and revenue considerations), for 191 countries. Globally, subsidies remained large at $4.7 trillion (6.3 percent of global GDP) in 2015 and are projected at $5.2 trillion (6.5 percent of GDP) in 2017. The largest subsidizers in 2015 were China ($1.4 trillion), United States ($649 billion), Russia ($551 billion), European Union ($289 billion), and India ($209 billion). About three quarters of global subsidies are due to domestic factors—energy pricing reform thus remains largely in countries’ own national interest—while coal and petroleum together account for 85 percent of global subsidies. Efficient fossil fuel pricing in 2015 would have lowered global carbon emissions by 28 percent and fossil fuel air pollution deaths by 46 percent, and increased government revenue by 3.8 percent of GDP.

Still Not Getting Energy Prices Right: A Global and Country Update of Fossil Fuel Subsidies

Ian Parry,Mr. Simon Black,Nate Vernon
Still Not Getting Energy Prices Right A Global and Country Update of Fossil Fuel Subsidies Book PDF

Author : Ian Parry,Mr. Simon Black,Nate Vernon
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2021-09-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513595405

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Still Not Getting Energy Prices Right: A Global and Country Update of Fossil Fuel Subsidies by Ian Parry,Mr. Simon Black,Nate Vernon Pdf

This paper provides a comprehensive global, regional, and country-level update of: (i) efficient fossil fuel prices to reflect their full private and social costs; and (ii) subsidies implied by mispricing fuels. The methodology improves over previous IMF analyses through more sophisticated estimation of costs and impacts of reform. Globally, fossil fuel subsidies were $5.9 trillion in 2020 or about 6.8 percent of GDP, and are expected to rise to 7.4 percent of GDP in 2025. Just 8 percent of the 2020 subsidy reflects undercharging for supply costs (explicit subsidies) and 92 percent for undercharging for environmental costs and foregone consumption taxes (implicit subsidies). Efficient fuel pricing in 2025 would reduce global carbon dioxide emissions 36 percent below baseline levels, which is in line with keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees, while raising revenues worth 3.8 percent of global GDP and preventing 0.9 million local air pollution deaths. Accompanying spreadsheets provide detailed results for 191 countries.

The Chicago Plan Revisited

Mr.Jaromir Benes,Mr.Michael Kumhof
The Chicago Plan Revisited Book PDF

Author : Mr.Jaromir Benes,Mr.Michael Kumhof
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 71 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2012-08-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475505528

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The Chicago Plan Revisited by Mr.Jaromir Benes,Mr.Michael Kumhof Pdf

At the height of the Great Depression a number of leading U.S. economists advanced a proposal for monetary reform that became known as the Chicago Plan. It envisaged the separation of the monetary and credit functions of the banking system, by requiring 100% reserve backing for deposits. Irving Fisher (1936) claimed the following advantages for this plan: (1) Much better control of a major source of business cycle fluctuations, sudden increases and contractions of bank credit and of the supply of bank-created money. (2) Complete elimination of bank runs. (3) Dramatic reduction of the (net) public debt. (4) Dramatic reduction of private debt, as money creation no longer requires simultaneous debt creation. We study these claims by embedding a comprehensive and carefully calibrated model of the banking system in a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. We find support for all four of Fisher's claims. Furthermore, output gains approach 10 percent, and steady state inflation can drop to zero without posing problems for the conduct of monetary policy.

Money Laundering and the International Financial System

Mr.Vito Tanzi
Money Laundering and the International Financial System Book PDF

Author : Mr.Vito Tanzi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 18 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 1996-05-01
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9781451847598

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Money Laundering and the International Financial System by Mr.Vito Tanzi Pdf

The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.

Struggling to Make the Grade: A Review of the Causes and Consequences of the Weak Outcomes of South Africa’s Education System

Mr.Montfort Mlachila,Tlhalefang Moeletsi
Struggling to Make the Grade A Review of the Causes and Consequences of the Weak Outcomes of South Africa s Education System Book PDF

Author : Mr.Montfort Mlachila,Tlhalefang Moeletsi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 61 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2019-03-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498301855

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Struggling to Make the Grade: A Review of the Causes and Consequences of the Weak Outcomes of South Africa’s Education System by Mr.Montfort Mlachila,Tlhalefang Moeletsi Pdf

While South Africa has made significant improvements in basic and tertiary education enrollment, the country still suffers from significant challenges in the quality of educational achievement by almost any international metric. The paper finds that money is clearly not the main issue since the South Africa’s education budget is comparable to OECD countries as a percent of GDP and exceeds that of most peer sub-Saharan African countries in per capita terms. The main explanatory factors are complex and multifaceted, and are associated with insufficient subject knowledge of some teachers, history, race, language, geographic location, and socio-economic status. Low educational achievement contributes to low productivity growth, and high levels of poverty, unemployment, and inequality. Drawing on the literature, the paper sketches some policy considerations to guide the debate on what works and what does not.

Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications

Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose
Financial Crises Explanations Types and Implications Book PDF

Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 66 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2013-01-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475561005

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Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications by Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose Pdf

This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs

Davide Furceri,Swarnali Ahmed Hannan,Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Andrew K. Rose
Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs Book PDF

Author : Davide Furceri,Swarnali Ahmed Hannan,Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Andrew K. Rose
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 57 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2019-01-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484390061

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Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs by Davide Furceri,Swarnali Ahmed Hannan,Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Andrew K. Rose Pdf

We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data.