Integrated Cost Schedule Risk Analysis

Author : Dr David Hulett
Publisher : Gower Publishing, Ltd.
Page : 241 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2012-09-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781409459101

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Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis by Dr David Hulett Pdf

Project managers tend to believe their cost estimates - whether they have exceeded budgets in the past or not. It is dangerous to accept the engineering cost estimates, which are often optimistic or unrealistic. Though cost estimates incorporate contingency reserves below-the-line, these estimates of reserves often do not benefit from a rigorous assessment of risk to project costs. Risks to cost come from multiple sources including uncertain project duration, which is often ignored in cost risk analyses. In short, experience shows that cost estimating on projects is rarely successful - cost overruns routinely occur. There are effective ways to estimate the impact on the cost of complex projects from project risks of all types, including traditional cost-type risks and the indirect but often substantial impact from risks usually thought of as affecting project schedules. Integrated cost-schedule risk anlaysis helps us determine how likely the project will go over budget with the current plan, how much contingency reserve is required to achieve a desired level of certainty, and which risks are most important so the project manager can mitigate them and achieve a better result. Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis provides solutions for these and other challenges. This book follows on from David Hulett's highly-praised Practical Schedule Risk Analysis. It focuses on the way that schedule risk can generate cost risk, and how to handle this relationship. It also applies the Risk Driver Method to the analysis so that you can clearly and transparently identify the key risks, rather than just the most risky cost line items. With detailed worked examples and over 70 illustrations, Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis offers the definitive guide to this critically important aspect of project management from surely the world's leading commentator.

Author : David T. Hulett
Publisher : Gower Publishing, Ltd.
Page : 248 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2011
Category : Cost control
ISBN : 0566091666

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Integrated Cost-schedule Risk Analysis by David T. Hulett Pdf

This companion volume to Practical Schedule Risk Analysis explores the second area where projects so often go horribly wrong - project cost. Many cost estimates are fundamentally flawed in their conception, become written in stone when the project is approved and consequently fall apart during the project implementation and delivery. David Hulett explains the true value of project cost estimating and how to manage the risks associated with project costs and project schedules. Given the scale of the investment in many modern projects, this is surely a book that is worth its weight in gold.

Author : David Hulett
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 239 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2016-05-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317115304

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Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis by David Hulett Pdf

Project managers tend to believe their cost estimates - whether they have exceeded budgets in the past or not. It is dangerous to accept the engineering cost estimates, which are often optimistic or unrealistic. Though cost estimates incorporate contingency reserves below-the-line, these estimates of reserves often do not benefit from a rigorous assessment of risk to project costs. Risks to cost come from multiple sources including uncertain project duration, which is often ignored in cost risk analyses. In short, experience shows that cost estimating on projects is rarely successful - cost overruns routinely occur. There are effective ways to estimate the impact on the cost of complex projects from project risks of all types, including traditional cost-type risks and the indirect but often substantial impact from risks usually thought of as affecting project schedules. Integrated cost-schedule risk anlaysis helps us determine how likely the project will go over budget with the current plan, how much contingency reserve is required to achieve a desired level of certainty, and which risks are most important so the project manager can mitigate them and achieve a better result. Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis provides solutions for these and other challenges. This book follows on from David Hulett's highly-praised Practical Schedule Risk Analysis. It focuses on the way that schedule risk can generate cost risk, and how to handle this relationship. It also applies the Risk Driver Method to the analysis so that you can clearly and transparently identify the key risks, rather than just the most risky cost line items. With detailed worked examples and over 70 illustrations, Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis offers the definitive guide to this critically important aspect of project management from surely the world's leading commentator.

Author : David Hulett
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 240 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2016-04-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317076698

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Practical Schedule Risk Analysis by David Hulett Pdf

Project scheduling is required for good project management, and the schedule represents the project plan under a specific set of assumptions, often that it will avoid new risks or even those that have occurred on previous occasions. The typical Critical Path Method (CPM) schedule assumes that the project team knows how long the scheduled activities will take. Yet, the experienced project manager knows that duration values so precisely stated are actually only estimates based on assumptions that could be wrong. A schedule risk analysis explores the implications for the project's schedule of risk to the activity durations and also identifies the most important schedule risks. This analysis, building on and extending CPM scheduling, will result in a more accurate estimate of completion and provide an early opportunity for planning effective risk mitigation actions. Practical Schedule Risk Analysis contains a complete treatment of schedule risk analysis from basic to advanced concepts. The methods are introduced at the simplest level: * Why is the duration uncertain? * And how do we represent this uncertainty with a probability distribution? These are then progressively elaborated: * How does uncertainty of activities along a path lead to more uncertainty of the path's completion date? * How can a schedule with parallel paths be riskier than each of the paths individually? * How can we represent risks about activities that are not in the schedule at all? Culminating in a discussion of the most powerful and advanced capabilities available in current commercial software. Schedule risk analysis is a process that is industry-independent, and the methods explained in this volume have been used by the author with positive effect in such industries as construction, oil and gas, information systems, environmental restoration and aerospace/defense. The result is a book that is not only highly practical; something that people within all types of projects and in all industries can apply themselves; but that is an extraordinarily complete guide to creating and managing a rigorous project schedule.

Author : DAVID. HULETT
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2019
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1138248061

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PRACTICAL SCHEDULE RISK ANALYSIS AND INTEGRATED COST-SCHEDULE RISK ANALYSIS. by DAVID. HULETT Pdf

Author : John K. Hollmann
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 416 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2016-06-28
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1941075029

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Project Risk Quantification by John K. Hollmann Pdf

Project Risk Quantification presents the most practical, realistic, and integrated approach to project cost and schedule Risk Quantification that is available today. It offers proven, empirically-valid methods and tools applicable to projects of all types and at all decision gates. The text is written for both the manager and the risk analysis practitioner. It will bring reliable accuracy and contingency determination to your capital project organization.

Author : Raydugin, Yuri
Publisher : IGI Global
Page : 504 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2016-11-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781522517917

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Handbook of Research on Leveraging Risk and Uncertainties for Effective Project Management by Raydugin, Yuri Pdf

The proper understanding and managing of project risks and uncertainties is crucial to any organization. It is of paramount importance at all phases of project development and execution to avoid poor project results from meager economics, overspending, reputation and environmental damage, and even loss of life. The Handbook of Research on Leveraging Risk and Uncertainties for Effective Project Management is a comprehensive reference source for emerging perspectives of managing risks associated with the execution and development of projects. Highlighting innovative coverage written by top industry specialists, such as complexity theory, psychological bias and risk management fallacies, probabilistic risk analysis, and various aspects of project decision making, this book is ideally designed for project and risk managers, project engineers, cost estimators, schedulers, safety and environmental protection specialists, corporate planners, financial and insurance specialists, corporate decision makers, as well as academics and lecturers working in the area of project management and students pursing PMP, PMI-RMP, ISO 31000, etc. certification.

Author : Mario Vanhoucke
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 318 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2013-11-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783642404382

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Project Management with Dynamic Scheduling by Mario Vanhoucke Pdf

The topic of this book is known as dynamic scheduling, and is used to refer to three dimensions of project management and scheduling: the construction of a baseline schedule and the analysis of a project schedule’s risk as preparation of the project control phase during project progress. This dynamic scheduling point of view implicitly assumes that the usability of a project’s baseline schedule is rather limited and only acts as a point of reference in the project life cycle. Consequently, a project schedule should especially be considered as nothing more than a predictive model that can be used for resource efficiency calculations, time and cost risk analyses, project tracking and performance measurement, and so on. In this book, the three dimensions of dynamic scheduling are highlighted in detail and are based on and inspired by a combination of academic research studies at Ghent University (www.ugent.be), in-company trainings at Vlerick Business School (www.vlerick.com) and consultancy projects at OR-AS (www.or-as.be). First, the construction of a project baseline schedule is a central theme throughout the various chapters of the book, and is discussed from a complexity point of view with and without the presence of project resources. Second, the creation of an awareness of the weak parts in a baseline schedule is discussed at the end of the two baseline scheduling parts as schedule risk analysis techniques that can be applied on top of the baseline schedule. Third, the baseline schedule and its risk analyses can be used as guidelines during the project control step where actual deviations can be corrected within the margins of the project’s time and cost reserves. The second edition of this book has seen corrections, additions and amendments in detail throughout the book. Moreover Chapter 15 on "Dynamic Scheduling with ProTrack" has been completely rewritten and extended with a section on "ProTrack as a research tool".

Author : National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Board on Infrastructure and the Constructed Environment,Committee for Oversight and Assessment of U.S. Department of Energy Project Management
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 102 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2005-03-25
Category : Transportation
ISBN : 9780309095181

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The Owner's Role in Project Risk Management by National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Board on Infrastructure and the Constructed Environment,Committee for Oversight and Assessment of U.S. Department of Energy Project Management Pdf

Effective risk management is essential for the success of large projects built and operated by the Department of Energy (DOE), particularly for the one-of-a-kind projects that characterize much of its mission. To enhance DOE's risk management efforts, the department asked the NRC to prepare a summary of the most effective practices used by leading owner organizations. The study's primary objective was to provide DOE project managers with a basic understanding of both the project owner's risk management role and effective oversight of those risk management activities delegated to contractors.

Author : Yan Tan
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 221 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2020-04-02
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9780429753671

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Large-Scale Construction Project Management by Yan Tan Pdf

A majority of large-scale construction and major infrastructure projects are funded by public funds from taxpayers. However, these projects are often subject to severe delays and cost overruns. Large-Scale Construction Project Management: Understanding Legal and Contract Requirements introduces integrated approaches to project management and control mechanisms to effectively manage large-scale construction projects. It explains the contractual requirements and associated legal principles under the latest edition of the leading standard forms of contracts, including FIDIC 2017, NEC4, and JCT 2016. It explains integrated project governance regarding time, cost, risk, change, contract management, and more. Further, it discusses the legal issues of scheduling delays and disruptions regarding the Delay and Disruption Protocol (Society of Construction Law) as well as Forensic Schedule Analysis guidance (American Association of Cost Engineering). Features: Provides strategies to effectively resolve disputes during construction projects Examines Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis (QSRA) and Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis (QCRA) Introduces the most recent software and techniques used in managing large-scale construction projects This book serves as a useful resource for project control and management professionals, researchers in construction management and project management, and students in building construction management and project management.

Author : Ovidiu Cretu,Robert B. Stewart,Terry Berends
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2011-05-04
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781118028636

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Risk Management for Design and Construction by Ovidiu Cretu,Robert B. Stewart,Terry Berends Pdf

The essential risk assessment guide for civil engineering, design, and construction Risk management allows construction professionals to identify the risks inherent in all projects, and to provide the tools for evaluating the probabilities and impacts to minimize the risk potential. This book introduces risk as a central pillar of project management and shows how a project manager can be prepared for dealing with uncertainty. Written by experts in the field, Risk Management for Design and Construction uses clear, straightforward terminology to demystify the concepts of project uncertainty and risk. Highlights include: Integrated cost and schedule risk analysis An introduction to a ready-to-use system of analyzing a project's risks and tools to proactively manage risks A methodology that was developed and used by the Washington State Department of Transportation Case studies and examples on the proper application of principles Information about combining value analysis with risk analysis "This book is a must for professionals who are seeking to move towards a proactive risk-centric management style. It is a valuable resource for students who are discovering the intricacies of uncertainties and risks within value estimation. For professionals, the book advocates for identifying and analyzing 'only' risks whose impact are of consequence to a project's performance." JOHN MILTON, PHD, PE Director of Enterprise Risk Management, Washington State Department of Transportation

Author : Wayne J. Del Pico
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 240 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2013-08-21
Category : Architecture
ISBN : 9781118421062

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Project Control by Wayne J. Del Pico Pdf

The key to successful project control is the fusing of cost to schedule whereby the management of one helps to manage the other. Project Control: Integrating Cost and Schedule in Construction explores the reasons behind and the methodologies for proper planning, monitoring, and controlling both project costs and schedule. Filling a current void the topic of project control applied to the construction industry, it is essential reading for students and professionals alike.

Author : Mario Vanhoucke
Publisher : Springer
Page : 141 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2014-07-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319043319

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Integrated Project Management and Control by Mario Vanhoucke Pdf

This book presents an integrated approach to monitoring projects in progress using Earned Value and Earned Schedule Management combined with Schedule Risk Analysis. Monitoring and controlling projects involves processes for identifying potential problems in a timely manner. When necessary, corrective actions can be taken to exploit project opportunities or to get faltering projects back on track. The prerequisite is that project performance is observed and measured regularly to identify variances from the project baseline schedule. Therefore, monitoring the performance of projects in progress requires a set of tools and techniques that should ideally be combined into a single integrated system. The book offers a valuable resource for anyone who wants to understand the theory first and then to use it in practice with software tools. It is intended for students, professionals and academics with an interest and/or experience in running projects as well as for newcomers in the area of project control with a basic grasp of the Earned Value, Earned Schedule and Schedule Risk Analysis concepts.

Author : Tom Kendrick
Publisher : AMACOM
Page : 370 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2009-02-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780814413418

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Identifying and Managing Project Risk by Tom Kendrick Pdf

Winner of the Project Management Institute’s David I. Cleland Project Management Literature Award 2010 It’s no wonder that project managers spend so much time focusing their attention on risk identification. Important projects tend to be time constrained, pose huge technical challenges, and suffer from a lack of adequate resources. Identifying and Managing Project Risk, now updated and consistent with the very latest Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK)® Guide, takes readers through every phase of a project, showing them how to consider the possible risks involved at every point in the process. Drawing on real-world situations and hundreds of examples, the book outlines proven methods, demonstrating key ideas for project risk planning and showing how to use high-level risk assessment tools. Analyzing aspects such as available resources, project scope, and scheduling, this new edition also explores the growing area of Enterprise Risk Management. Comprehensive and completely up-to-date, this book helps readers determine risk factors thoroughly and decisively...before a project gets derailed.

Author : Sam L. Savage
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 423 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2012-03-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781118373583

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The Flaw of Averages by Sam L. Savage Pdf

A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savageknown for his creative exposition of difficult subjects describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader’s intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages “Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage’s lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages.” —William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense “Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible.” —Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics