International Sovereign Bonds By Emerging Markets And Developing Economies

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International Sovereign Bonds by Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Andrea Presbitero,Mr.Dhaneshwar Ghura,Mr.Olumuyiwa Adedeji,Lamin Njie
International Sovereign Bonds by Emerging Markets and Developing Economies Book PDF

Author : Andrea Presbitero,Mr.Dhaneshwar Ghura,Mr.Olumuyiwa Adedeji,Lamin Njie
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2015-12-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513581729

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International Sovereign Bonds by Emerging Markets and Developing Economies by Andrea Presbitero,Mr.Dhaneshwar Ghura,Mr.Olumuyiwa Adedeji,Lamin Njie Pdf

What determines the ability of low-income developing countries to issue bonds in international capital and what explains the spreads on these bonds? This paper examines these questions using a dataset that includes emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) that issued sovereign bonds at least once during the period 1995-2013 as well as those that did not. We find that an EMDE is more likely to issue a bond when, in comparison with non-issuing peers, it is larger in economic size, has higher per capita GDP, and has stronger macroeconomic fundamentals and government. Spreads on sovereign bonds are lower for countries with strong external and fiscal positions, as well as robust economic growth and government effectiveness. With regard to global factors, the results show that sovereign bond spreads are reduced in periods of lower market volatility.

International Sovereign Bonds by Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Andrea Presbitero
International Sovereign Bonds by Emerging Markets and Developing Economies Book PDF

Author : Andrea Presbitero
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2015
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1513594907

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International Sovereign Bonds by Emerging Markets and Developing Economies by Andrea Presbitero Pdf

What determines the ability of low-income developing countries to issue bonds in international capital and what explains the spreads on these bonds? This paper examines these questions using a dataset that includes emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) that issued sovereign bonds at least once during the period 1995-2013 as well as those that did not. We find that an EMDE is more likely to issue a bond when, in comparison with non-issuing peers, it is larger in economic size, has higher per capita GDP, and has stronger macroeconomic fundamentals and government. Spreads on sovereign.

Emerging Markets and Financial Globalization

Paolo Mauro,Nathan Sussman,Yishay Yafeh
Emerging Markets and Financial Globalization Book PDF

Author : Paolo Mauro,Nathan Sussman,Yishay Yafeh
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 204 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2006-03-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780199272693

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Emerging Markets and Financial Globalization by Paolo Mauro,Nathan Sussman,Yishay Yafeh Pdf

The frequency and virulence of recent financial crises have led to calls for reform of the current international financial architecture. In an effort to learn more about today's international financial environment, the authors turn to an earlier era of financial globalization between 1870 and 1913. By examining data on sovereign bonds issued by borrowing developing countries in this earlier period and in the present day, the authors are able to identify the characteristics ofsuccessful borrowers in the two periods. They are then able to show that global crises or contagion are a feature of the 1990s which was hardly known in the previous era of globalization. Finally, the authors draw lessons for today from archival data on mechanisms used by British investors in the 19thcentury to address sovereign defaults. Using new qualitative and quantitative data, the authors skilfully apply a variety of approaches in order to better understand how problems of volatility and debt crises are dealt with in international financial markets.

Global Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Markets

Mr.Christian Ebeke,Ms.Annette Kyobe
Global Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Markets Book PDF

Author : Mr.Christian Ebeke,Ms.Annette Kyobe
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 22 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2015-06-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513552750

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Global Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Markets by Mr.Christian Ebeke,Ms.Annette Kyobe Pdf

Foreign holdings of emerging markets (EMs) government bonds have increased substantially over the last decade. While foreign participation in local-currency sovereign bond markets provides an additional source of financing and reduces sovereign yields, it raises concerns about increased sensitivity of yields to shifts in market sentiment. The analysis in this paper suggests that foreign participation and an undiversified investor base transmit global financial shocks to local-currency sovereign bond markets by increasing yield volatility and, beyond a certain threshold, amplify these spillovers. These estimates are robust to a range of econometric techniques including panel smooth threshold regression.

Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads

Iva Petrova,Mr.Michael G Papaioannou,Mr.Dimitri Bellas
Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads Book PDF

Author : Iva Petrova,Mr.Michael G Papaioannou,Mr.Dimitri Bellas
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2010-12-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455210886

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Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads by Iva Petrova,Mr.Michael G Papaioannou,Mr.Dimitri Bellas Pdf

This paper analyses the determimants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads by examining the short and long-run effects of fundamental (macroeconomic) and temporary (financial market) factors on these spreads. During the current global financial and economic crisis, sovereign bond spreads widened dramatically for both developed and emerging market economies. This deterioration has widely been attributed to rapidly growing public debts and balance sheet risks. Our results indicate that in the long run, fundamentals are significant determinants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads, while in the short run, financial volatility is a more important determinant of sperads than fundamentals indicators.

On the Determinants of First-Time Sovereign Bond Issues

Mr.David A. Grigorian
On the Determinants of First Time Sovereign Bond Issues Book PDF

Author : Mr.David A. Grigorian
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 24 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2003-09-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451859386

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On the Determinants of First-Time Sovereign Bond Issues by Mr.David A. Grigorian Pdf

In recent years, the number of countries which have borrowed in international capital markets by issuing sovereign bonds has increased substantially. For these countries, capital market access meant a de facto acknowledgement of their policy successes and improvements in their creditworthiness that enabled them to graduate from the group of official financing recipients into a more advanced group of emerging market economies. The paper looks at the determinants of sovereign bond issuances and derives the relationship between internal and external factors and market access using a simple macro model. The market access condition is then translated into a simple rule that requires an excess demand for the sovereign bonds in question. Regression results based on this model offer some insights into peculiarities of first-time sovereign bond issues that could be used in policy deliberations.

Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets

Mr.Udaibir S. Das,Mr.Michael G. Papaioannou,Christoph Trebesch
Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets Book PDF

Author : Mr.Udaibir S. Das,Mr.Michael G. Papaioannou,Christoph Trebesch
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2010-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451961942

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Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets by Mr.Udaibir S. Das,Mr.Michael G. Papaioannou,Christoph Trebesch Pdf

Top down spillovers of sovereign default risk can have serious consequences for the private sector in emerging markets. This paper analyzes the effects of these spillovers using firm-level data from 31 emerging market economies. We assess how sovereign risk affects corporate access to international capital markets, in the form of external credit (loans and bond issuances) and equity issuances. The study first analyzes the impact of sovereign debt crises during the 1980s and 1990s. It goes on to examine the 1993 to 2007 period, using additional measures of sovereign risk-sovereign bond spreads and sovereign ratings-as explanatory variables. Overall, we find that sovereign default risk is a crucial determinant of private sector access to capital, be it external debt or equity. We also find that crisis resolution patterns matter and that defaults towards private creditors have stronger adverse consequences than defaults to official creditors.

Foreign Participation in Emerging Markets’ Local Currency Bond Markets

Mr.Shanaka J. Peiris
Foreign Participation in Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond Markets Book PDF

Author : Mr.Shanaka J. Peiris
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 21 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2010-04-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451982602

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Foreign Participation in Emerging Markets’ Local Currency Bond Markets by Mr.Shanaka J. Peiris Pdf

This paper estimates the impact of foreign participation in determining long-term local currency government bond yields and volatility in a group of emerging markets from 2000-2009. The results of a panel data analysis of 10 emerging markets show that greater foreign participation in the domestic government bond market tends to significantly reduce long-term government yields. Moreover, greater foreign participation does not necessarily result in increased volatility in bond yields in emerging markets and, in fact, could even dampen volatility in some instances.

Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads

Mr.Fabio Comelli
Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads Book PDF

Author : Mr.Fabio Comelli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 43 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2012-08-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475505627

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Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads by Mr.Fabio Comelli Pdf

We estimate sovereign bond spreads of 28 emerging economies over the period January 1998-December 2011 and test the ability of the model in generating accurate in-sample predictions for emerging economies bond spreads. The impact and significance of country-specific and global explanatory variables on bond spreads varies across regions, as well as economic periods. During crisis times, good macroeconomic fundamentals are helpful in containing bond spreads, but less than in non-crisis times, possibly reflecting the impact of extra-economic forces on bond spreads when a financial crisis occurs. For some emerging economies, in-sample predictions of the monthly changes in bond spreads obtained with rolling regression routines are significantly more accurate than forecasts obtained with a random walk. Rolling regression-based bond spread predictions appear to convey more information than those obtained with a linear prediction method. By contrast, bond spreads forecasts obtained with a linear prediction method are less accurate than those obtained with random guessing.

Real Money Investors and Sovereign Bond Yields

Laura Jaramillo,Ms.Yuanyan Sophia Zhang
Real Money Investors and Sovereign Bond Yields Book PDF

Author : Laura Jaramillo,Ms.Yuanyan Sophia Zhang
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 24 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2013-12-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475541540

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Real Money Investors and Sovereign Bond Yields by Laura Jaramillo,Ms.Yuanyan Sophia Zhang Pdf

Experience from the global financial crisis suggests that countries’ borrowing costs are not solely determined by macro and fiscal fundamentals. Factors such as ownership structures of government securities, among others, also play a significant role. This paper investigates the effect of “real money investors”—domestic nonbanks and national and foreign central banks—on bond yields for a sample of 45 advanced and emerging market economies. The results show that, while bond yields rise with the debt to GDP ratio, this increase is partly offset if this debt falls in the hands of real money investors. Nonetheless, for some countries there is the risk that such ownership structure could change over the long run, which would impose upward pressure on borrowing costs, especially where fiscal positions are weak.

First-Time International Bond Issuance—New Opportunities and Emerging Risks

Ms.Anastasia Guscina,Mr.Guilherme Pedras,Gabriel Presciuttini
First Time International Bond Issuance New Opportunities and Emerging Risks Book PDF

Author : Ms.Anastasia Guscina,Mr.Guilherme Pedras,Gabriel Presciuttini
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2014-07-18
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498390699

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First-Time International Bond Issuance—New Opportunities and Emerging Risks by Ms.Anastasia Guscina,Mr.Guilherme Pedras,Gabriel Presciuttini Pdf

International bond issuance by debut issuers has risen in recent years. The uptick was a result of both demand and supply factors. The search for yield and demand for portfolio diversification have resulted in demand-driven easy financing conditions. At the same time, rising financing needs for many debut issuers, coupled with reduced access to concessional financing, relatively undeveloped domestic markets, and a favorable interest rate environment have made international bonds an attractive financing alternative for many countries. As bonds issued in the international markets are typically denominated in hard currencies, have large volumes and a bullet structure, exposure to exchange rate and refinancing risk has increased. Therefore, risk-mitigating policy actions are needed to prepare for redemption, support debt sustainability, and secure adequate debt management capacity.

Resource Windfalls and Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads

Mr.Rabah Arezki,Markus Bruckner
Resource Windfalls and Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads Book PDF

Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki,Markus Bruckner
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 13 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2010-07-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455202133

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Resource Windfalls and Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads by Mr.Rabah Arezki,Markus Bruckner Pdf

We examine the effect that revenue windfalls from international commodity price shocks have on sovereign bond spreads using panel data for 30 emerging market economies during the period 1997-2007. Our main finding is that positive commodity price shocks lead to a significant reduction in the sovereign bond spread in democracies, but to a significant increase in the spread in autocracies. To explain our finding we show that, consistent with the political economy literature on the resource curse, revenue windfalls from international commodity price shocks significantly increased real per capita GDP growth in democracies, while in autocracies GDP per capita growth decreased.

Sovereign Credit Ratings and Spreads in Emerging Markets

Laura Jaramillo,Ms.Michelle Michelle Tejada
Sovereign Credit Ratings and Spreads in Emerging Markets Book PDF

Author : Laura Jaramillo,Ms.Michelle Michelle Tejada
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 19 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2011-03-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455218981

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Sovereign Credit Ratings and Spreads in Emerging Markets by Laura Jaramillo,Ms.Michelle Michelle Tejada Pdf

Sovereign investment grade status is often associated with lower spreads in international markets. Using a panel framework for 35 emerging markets between 1997 and 2010, thispaper finds that investment grade status reduces spreads by 36 percent, above and beyond what is implied by macroeconomic fundamentals. This compares to a 5-10 percent reduction in spreads following upgrades within the investment grade asset class, and no impact formovements within the speculative grade asset class, ceteris paribus. While global financial conditions play a central role in determining spreads, market sentiment improves with lower external public debt to GDP levels and higher domestic growth rates.

Emerging Markets and Sovereign Risk

N. Finch
Emerging Markets and Sovereign Risk Book PDF

Author : N. Finch
Publisher : Springer
Page : 298 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2014-12-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781137450661

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Emerging Markets and Sovereign Risk by N. Finch Pdf

Emerging Markets and Sovereign Risk provides case studies, commentary and analysis on the financial risk management and measurement in the context of frontier and developing counties from international experts covering three key areas of emerging market investments, the rating sovereign risk and managing sovereign risk.

Puttable and Extendible Bonds

Salih N. Neftci,Mr.Andre Santos
Puttable and Extendible Bonds Book PDF

Author : Salih N. Neftci,Mr.Andre Santos
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 31 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2003-10-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451874372

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Puttable and Extendible Bonds by Salih N. Neftci,Mr.Andre Santos Pdf

This paper analyzes the price stabilizing properties of puttable and extendible bonds, their potential to help develop interest-rate derivative markets, and their use by governments. Their stabilizing properties imply that, when bond prices fall, prices for puttable and extendible bonds fall by less. Their embedded options work as a cushion and replicate the trading gains from hedging long-term bonds with interest rate derivatives. These bonds can help develop interest-rate derivative markets in developing countries and eventually increase demand for long-term government bonds. Informal evidence from OECD countries suggests that these bonds were useful in the 1980s, when interest rates were volatile.