Investment Expectations And Uncertainty

Author : Robert K. Dixit,Robert S. Pindyck
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 484 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2012-07-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781400830176

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Investment under Uncertainty by Robert K. Dixit,Robert S. Pindyck Pdf

How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.

Author : Ciaran Driver,David Moreton
Publisher : Wiley-Blackwell
Page : 176 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 1992
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 063117334X

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Investment, Expectations, and Uncertainty by Ciaran Driver,David Moreton Pdf

Author : Robert S. Pindyck
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 58 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 1989
Category : Capital investments
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment by Robert S. Pindyck Pdf

Irreversible investment is especially sensitive to such risk factors as volatile exchange rates and uncertainty about tariff structures and future cash flows. If the goal of macroeconomic policy is to stimulate investment, stability and credibility may be more important than tax incentives or interest rates.

Author : Gerald Ashley
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 188 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2005-08-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780470864708

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Uncertainty and Expectation by Gerald Ashley Pdf

In this entertaining and thoughtful book, Gerald Ashley sets out to explain what trading is, and lays out a modus operandi for being a trader and investor. He draws upon market anecdotes and examples from the past, seeking to debunk many myths surrounding financial markets, and to try and make the reader understand the real processes, risks and rewards that drive investment. In particular he examines ideas in market and individual investor behaviour, and questions the usefulness of many of todays standard investment techniques including benchmarks, charts, analysts and 'gurus'. He also lays out simple precepts for understanding investment risk and suggests ideas for managing your investments in today's markets.

Author : Eric Barthalon
Publisher : Columbia University Press
Page : 445 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2014-11-18
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780231538305

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Uncertainty, Expectations, and Financial Instability by Eric Barthalon Pdf

Eric Barthalon applies the neglected theory of psychological time and memory decay of Nobel Prize–winning economist Maurice Allais (1911–2010) to model investors' psychology in the present context of recurrent financial crises. Shaped by the behavior of the demand for money during episodes of hyperinflation, Allais's theory suggests economic agents perceive the flow of clocks' time and forget the past at a context-dependent pace: rapidly in the presence of persistent and accelerating inflation and slowly in the event of the opposite situation. Barthalon recasts Allais's work as a general theory of "expectations" under uncertainty, narrowing the gap between economic theory and investors' behavior. Barthalon extends Allais's theory to the field of financial instability, demonstrating its relevance to nominal interest rates in a variety of empirical scenarios and the positive nonlinear feedback that exists between asset price inflation and the demand for risky assets. Reviewing the works of the leading protagonists in the expectations controversy, Barthalon exposes the limitations of adaptive and rational expectations models and, by means of the perceived risk of loss, calls attention to the speculative bubbles that lacked the positive displacement discussed in Kindleberger's model of financial crises. He ultimately extrapolates Allaisian theory into a pragmatic approach to investor behavior and the natural instability of financial markets. He concludes with the policy implications for governments and regulators. Balanced and coherent, this book will be invaluable to researchers working in macreconomics, financial economics, behavioral finance, decision theory, and the history of economic thought.

Author : Ian Charles Runge
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 232 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2000
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : STANFORD:36105025050472

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Capital and Uncertainty by Ian Charles Runge Pdf

Analyzes capital investment as a process in which an individual, entrepreneur, or organization comes to understand "value" before making a choice. Runge, an economist and mining engineer based in Australia, maintains that subjective value and uncertainty inform investment decision-making far more than the calculus of simple neoclassical choice suggests. His model of the capital investment process within a firm analyzes uncertainty and where it translates into risk. Runge sets out theories and tools for choosing between alternatives with differing risk and return profiles. His model provides a framework for decision-making that can lead to choices with lower overall risk, higher returns, and increased value. Annotation copyrighted by Book News Inc., Portland, OR

Author : Aymo Brunetti,Beatrice Weder
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 46 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 1997-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0821341596

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Investment and Institutional Uncertainty by Aymo Brunetti,Beatrice Weder Pdf

Looking decades ahead into the future, many informed observers see China moving steadily to the top of the world's economic league. Several sources, including the OECD, forecast that the country will be the world's largest economy by 2020. China's urban economy has been the driving force behind the country's recent trends of accelerated growth. By the same token, deterioration in the urban centers could constrain future growth. The Dynamics of Urban Growth in Three Chinese Cities looks at the interplay between geography, size, and industrial structure that determines the industrial vigor of cities. Their conclusions, abundantly illustrated through the experience of the Chinese cities of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou, is that each of these factors must be made to work for the city through effective policymaking. The authors compare these cities with each other in the context of the changes sweeping China's economy, review their history and their reform programs from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s, and examine their infrastructure and human capital. The volume includes maps of the cities and their outlying areas and of China's road and rail system, as well as figures depicting the industrial structure of each city. Published for the World Bank by Oxford University Press.

Author : Robert Lensink,Hong Bo,Elmer Sterken
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 176 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2001-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1782541241

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Investment, Capital Market Imperfections, and Uncertainty by Robert Lensink,Hong Bo,Elmer Sterken Pdf

This book presents an up-to-date overview of the theory as well as the empirics of the relationship between investment, financial imperfections and uncertainty. After reviewing the capital market imperfections literature and the empirical results, the authors discuss both traditional investment models with uncertainty and the more modern option based models. They present an overview of empirical results of the modelling of investment under uncertainty. In these examples the effects of capital market imperfections on investment are carefully considered. The authors conclude that there is overwhelming empirical support for a negative uncertainty-investment relationship. This book should appeal to academics with an interest in investment theory, professionals in the financial sector and students of macroeconomics and finance. "Investment, Capital Market Imperfections, and Uncertainty" assumes only a basic knowledge of mathematics and is easily accessible.

Author : Guerdon T. Ely,Mba Cfp Ely
Publisher : Xulon Press
Page : 190 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2009-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781615795970

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Uncertainty Is a Certainty by Guerdon T. Ely,Mba Cfp Ely Pdf

The certainty of uncertainty is as true for managing investments as it is for potty-training toddlers; if you are not careful you could end up with a real mess! This is especially true for anyone responsible, even indirectly, for money belonging to a relative, friend, trust, charity, pension or other entity. Being a fiduciary is a very serious legal obligation but this book makes learning how to be one actually fun! If you ever need to serve as or hire a trustee, executor, or investment advisor for your own money or that of family or friends, you must understand what "fiduciary responsibility" means. Guerdon Ely's book is the fastest, most boredom-free, way to gain that understanding. Natalie B. Choate, Esq., Author, Life and Death Planning for Retirement Benefits An exceptionally entertaining book that uses a unique story telling format to define fiduciaries and explain their duties in terms that are easily understood. Guerdon's simple and concise summarization of the elements of "prudence" alone makes this book worth reading. David O'Leary, Esq., Senior Counsel, Holland & Knight LLP This book is brilliant! Fiduciary responsibility can be very dry reading but the author's use of autobiographical tales makes it an extremely enjoyable process. June Hunt, Retired CFO Superbly written, Ely brings the objective standards of modern prudent fiduciary investing to life. A must read for anyone entrusted with the duties of a fiduciary. Katherine Simmonds, Director of Financial Planning Ely brings a common sense approach to fiduciary investing. I find myself reading his stories to friends and colleagues, not only for the content but also for the humor! CPAs and attorneys must recommend this book to all their clients who are fiduciaries. Glenn Freed, PhD, Vice President, A Major Investment Management Firm Former Accounting Professor, University of Southern California

Author : Donald Eugene Farrar
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 112 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 1967
Category : Capital investments
ISBN : UOM:35128000122026

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The Investment Decision Under Uncertainty by Donald Eugene Farrar Pdf

Author : Haim Levy
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 384 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2013-03-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475728408

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Stochastic Dominance by Haim Levy Pdf

This book is devoted to investment decision-making under uncertainty. The book covers three basic approaches to this process: a) The stochastic dominance approach, developed on the foundation of von Neumann and Morgenstern' expected utility paradigm. 2 b) The mean-variance approach developed by Markowitz on the foundation of von-Neumann and Morgenstem's expected utility or simply on the assumption of a utility function based on mean and variance. c) The non-expected utility approach, focusing on prospect theory and its modi fied version, cumulative prospect theory. This theory is based on an experi mental finding that subjects participating in laboratory experiments often violate expected utility maximization: They tend to use · subjective probability beliefs that differ systematically from the objective probabilities and to base their decisions on changes in wealth rather than on total wealth. The above approaches are discussed and compared in this book. W e also discuss cases in which stochastic dominance rules coincide with the mean-variance rule and cases in which contradictions between these two approaches may occur. We then discuss the relationship between stochastic dominance rules and prospect theory, and establish a new investment decision rule which combines the two and which we call prospect stochastic dominance. Although all three approaches are discussed, most of the book is devoted to the stochastic dominance paradigm.

Author : Frank H. Knight
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
Page : 401 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2006-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781602060050

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Risk, Uncertainty and Profit by Frank H. Knight Pdf

A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Author : G. L. S. Shackle
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 292 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2010-08-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 052115331X

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Uncertainty in Economics and Other Reflections by G. L. S. Shackle Pdf

This book is a collection of some of Professor Shackle's papers written between 1939 and 1953 is largely concerned with the problems of 'expectation' and 'uncertainty' and with reducing these universal factors to some sort of plausible rules. Also included are essays on interest rates, on investment and employment, and on the philosophy of economics. This book, by one of the finest economic writers of his time, will appeal to anyone with an interest in the history of economics.

Author : Haim Levy
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 439 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2006-08-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780387293110

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Stochastic Dominance by Haim Levy Pdf

This book is devoted to investment decision-making under uncertainty. The book covers three basic approaches to this process: the stochastic dominance approach; the mean-variance approach; and the non-expected utility approach, focusing on prospect theory and its modified version, cumulative prospect theory. Each approach is discussed and compared. In addition, this volume examines cases in which stochastic dominance rules coincide with the mean-variance rule and considers how contradictions between these two approaches may occur.

Author : Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 1997-12-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451858303

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Investment, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility in Ghana by Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo Pdf

Panel data on Ghanaian manufacturing firms are used to test predictions from models of irreversible investment under uncertainty. Information on the entrepreneur’s subjective probability distribution over future demand for the firm’s products is used to construct the expected variance of demand, which is used as a measure of uncertainty. Empirical results support the prediction that firms wait to invest until the marginal revenue product of capital reaches a firm-specific hurdle level. Moreover, higher uncertainty raises the hurdle level that triggers investment, and uncertainty has a negative effect on investment levels that is greater for firms with more irreversible investment.