Lost Decade In Translation What Japan S Crisis Could Portend About Recovery From The Great Recession
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“Lost Decade” in Translation - What Japan’s Crisis could Portend about Recovery from the Great Recession by Mr.Murtaza H. Syed,Kiichi Tokuoka,Mr.Kenneth Kang Pdf
Is the recovery from the global financial crisis now secured? A strikingly similar crisis that stalled Japan's growth miracle two decades ago could provide some clues. This paper explores the parallels and draws potential implications for the current global outlook and policies. Japan's experiences suggest four broad lessons. First, green shoots do not guarantee a recovery, implying a need to be cautious about the outlook. Second, financial fragilities can leave an economy vulnerable to adverse shocks and should be resolved for a durable recovery. Third, well-calibrated macroeconomic stimulus can facilitate this adjustment, but carries increasing costs. And fourth, while judging the best time to exit from policy support is difficult, clear medium-term plans may help.
The post-Cold War era has been difficult for Japan. A country once heralded for evolving a superior form of capitalism and seemingly ready to surpass the United States as the world’s largest economy lost its way in the early 1990s. The bursting of the bubble in 1991 ushered in a period of political and economic uncertainty that has lasted for over two decades. There were hopes that the triple catastrophe of March 11, 2011—a massive earthquake, tsunami, and accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant—would break Japan out of its torpor and spur the country to embrace change that would restart the growth and optimism of the go-go years. But several years later, Japan is still waiting for needed transformation, and Brad Glosserman concludes that the fact that even disaster has not spurred radical enough reform reveals something about Japan's political system and Japanese society. Glosserman explains why Japan has not and will not change, concluding that Japanese horizons are shrinking and that the Japanese public has given up the bold ambitions of previous generations and its current leadership. This is a critical insight into contemporary Japan and one that should shape our thinking about this vital country.
Global Financial Contagion by Shalendra D. Sharma Pdf
This book is an authoritative account of the economic and political roots of the 2008 financial crisis. It examines why it was triggered in the United States, why it morphed into the Great Recession, and why the contagion spread with such ferocity around the globe. It also examines how and why economies - including the Eurozone, Russia, China, India, East Asia, and the Middle East - have been impacted and explores their response to the unprecedented challenges of the crisis and the effectiveness of their policy measures. Global Financial Contagion specifically looks at how the Obama administration's policy missteps have contributed to America's huge debt and slow recovery, why the Eurozone's response to its existential crisis has become a never-ending saga, and why the G-20's efforts to create a new international financial architecture may fall short. This book will long be regarded as the standard account of the crisis and its aftermath.
World Economic Outlook, October 2016 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf
According to the October 2016 "World Economic Outlook," global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2016 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2017. The forecast, revised down by 0.1 percentage point for 2016 and 2017 relative to April’s report, reflects a more subdued outlook for advanced economies following the June U.K. vote in favor of leaving the European Union (Brexit) and weaker-than-expected growth in the United States. These developments have put further downward pressure on global interest rates, as monetary policy is now expected to remain accommodative for longer. Although the market reaction to the Brexit shock was reassuringly orderly, the ultimate impact remains very unclear, as the fate of institutional and trade arrangements between the United Kingdom and the European Union is uncertain. Financial market sentiment toward emerging market economies has improved with expectations of lower interest rates in advanced economies, reduced concern about China’s near-term prospects following policy support to growth, and some firming of commodity prices. But prospects differ sharply across countries and regions, with emerging Asia in general and India in particular showing robust growth and sub-Saharan Africa experiencing a sharp slowdown. In advanced economies, a subdued outlook subject to sizable uncertainty and downside risks may fuel further political discontent, with anti-integration policy platforms gaining more traction. Several emerging market and developing economies still face daunting policy challenges in adjusting to weaker commodity prices. These worrisome prospects make the need for a broad-based policy response to raise growth and manage vulnerabilities more urgent than ever.
Financial Crises by Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose,Mr.Luc Laeven,Mr.Fabian Valencia Pdf
The lingering effects of the economic crisis are still visible—this shows a clear need to improve our understanding of financial crises. This book surveys a wide range of crises, including banking, balance of payments, and sovereign debt crises. It begins with an overview of the various types of crises and introduces a comprehensive database of crises. Broad lessons on crisis prevention and management, as well as the short-term economic effects of crises, recessions, and recoveries, are discussed.
Korea’s Challenges Ahead—Lessons from Japan’s Experience by Ms.Edda Zoli Pdf
This paper draws out the parallels between Korea and Japan in terms of demographics, potential growth, balance sheets, asset prices and inflation. Korea’s demographic trends seem to track Japan’s with a lag of about 20 years. Low productivity in the service sector and labor market duality are common to both countries and need to be addressed with structural reforms. While Korea’s corporate balance sheets are stronger than Japan’s in the early 1990s, Korea needs to progress with the restructuring of nonviable firms to avoid the adverse consequences of delayed balance-sheet repair that Japan experienced. Given its strong fiscal balance sheet position, Korea can afford using fiscal policy actively to incentivize corporate restructuring and structural reforms and cushion their possible short-term adverse impact. Korea can prevent bubbles in asset prices that were at the origin of Japan’s initial crisis with the continued use of macroprudential policies. Although Korea does not appear to be headed toward deflation, new econometric analysis presented in the paper suggests that aging will exert a downward drag on its inflation going forward.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 90 pages File Size : 55,5 Mb Release : 2016-08-26 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781475529920
Republic of Korea by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Pdf
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Korea’s growth has slowed after decades of impressive economic progress. The economy is facing a number of structural headwinds, including unfavorable demographic developments, heavy export reliance, pockets of corporate vulnerability, labor market distortions, lagging productivity, and high household debt. Inequality and poverty are also of concern. Growth is projected to tick up to 2.7 percent in 2016 and 3.0 percent in 2017, with inflation remaining subdued. Credit is expected to continue to grow, partly reflecting the impact of interest rate cuts, but at a slower pace consistent with the tightening of prudential measures and the envisaged moderation in construction investment after 2017.
World Economic Outlook, October 2014 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf
The pace of recovery has disappointed in recent years, and downside risks have increased, including from heightened geopolitical tensions. These increased risks make it a priority to raise actual and potential growth. In a number of economies, an increase in public infrastructure investment can also provide support to demand and help boost potential output. And in advanced economies as well as emerging and developing economies there is a general, urgent need for structural reforms to strengthen growth potential or make growth more sustainable. The four individual chapters examine the overall global outlook, the prospects for individual countries and regions, the benefits of increased public infrastructure investment in terms of raising output, and the extent to which global imbalances have narrowed significantly since their peak in 2006.
Examining Japan's Lost Decades by Yoichi Funabashi,Barak Kushner Pdf
This book examines five features of Japan’s ‘Lost Decades’: the speed of the economic decline in Japan compared to Japan’s earlier global prowess; a rapidly declining population; considerable political instability and failed reform attempts; shifting balances of power in the region and changing relations with Asian neighbouring nations; and the lingering legacy of World War Two. Addressing the question of why the decades were lost, this book offers 15 new perspectives ranging from economics to ideology and beyond. Investigating problems such as the risk-averse behaviour of Japan’s bureaucracy and the absence of strong political leadership, the authors analyse how the delay of ‘loss-cutting policies’ led to the 1997 financial crisis and a state of political gridlock where policymakers could not decide on firm strategies that would benefit national interests. To discuss the rebuilding of Japan, the authors argue that it is first essential to critically examine Japan’s ‘Lost Decades’ and this book offers a comprehensive overview of Japan’s recent 20 years of crisis. The book reveals that the ‘Lost Decades’ is not an issue unique to the Japanese context but has global relevance, and its study can provide important insights into challenges being faced in other mature economies. With chapters written by some of the world’s leading Japan specialists and chapters focusing on a variety of disciplines, this book will be of interest to students and scholars in the areas of Japan studies, Politics, International Relations, Security Studies, Government Policy and History.
'Recent events have rendered Japan's lost decades all the more relevant to the rest of us. Rick Garside, in this wide-ranging and accessible account, explores the political economy of Japan's great stagnation with an eye toward describing how other advanced economies can avoid going down the same path.' – Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley, US 'Professor Garside's timely book transcends the national preoccupation suggested by its title. From one viewpoint this is a case study (admittedly on a grand scale) of the experience of one country in one historical period. But in analyzing the dynamic relationship between Japan's post-war economic miracle and its chronic stagnation from the 1990's he offers a penetrating insight into the links between profound and embedded institutional and ideological influences, global upheaval, and almost disastrous national economic performance. Hence, Japan's Great Stagnation – the unfolding story of that country's declining experience from masterful economic power to seeming economic paralysis – provides us with an all-too familiar scenario with which to approach the contemporaneous ills of the world's developed economies. The interaction between banking crises, unwieldy institutions (especially, but not only, financial institutions), policy frailties, and stagnating demand – all conspired to create crisis and then handicap or prevent recovery. And the familiarity of the story is aggravated by the global financial crisis which now threatens to engulf us. History never fully repeats itself, but Professor Garside's illuminating examination of Japan's recent experiences must surely provide important points of relevance for the world's current malaise. He is to be congratulated on the depth and scope of what he has achieved – and for its relevance to what we are experiencing.' – Barry Supple, University of Cambridge, UK This timely book presents a critical examination of the developmental premises of Japan's high-growth success and its subsequent drift into recession, stagnation and piecemeal reform. The country, which within a few decades of wartime defeat mounted a serious challenge to American hegemony, appeared incapable of fully adjusting to shifting economic circumstance once the impulses of catch-up growth and the good fortune of an accommodating international environment faded. The banking crises, spiralling government debt, and stagnant growth experienced by major industrialized nations in recent years have evoked renewed interest in Japan's economic denouement since the 1990s. To many, Japan's drift into recession and financial crisis during the early 1990s, and later into stagnation and prolonged deflation, demonstrated precisely what not to do when fashioning remedial policy. This book details the legacies of Japan's high-growth success and how they affected Japan's capacity to cope with shifting national and international circumstance from the 1980s. It reviews the contentious debates over the causes and consequences of the 'bubble economy' and the 'lost decade', and assesses the extent to which reforms since 1997 have been compromised by lingering attachments to Japan's distinctive post-war political economy. Providing an analytical overview of both the high growth and recessionary periods and of subsequent reform agendas, this timely book will appeal to students, academics and researchers of economic history, development and politics, particularly those with an interest in Japan and Asian studies more generally.
Author : W. Miles Fletcher III,Peter W. von Staden Publisher : Routledge Page : 218 pages File Size : 53,6 Mb Release : 2014-06-11 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781317977025
Japan's 'Lost Decade' by W. Miles Fletcher III,Peter W. von Staden Pdf
Understanding the 'lost decade' of the 1990s is central to explaining Japan today. Following a period of record high growth, the chronic downturn after 1990 raised fundamental questions about the course of the world's third largest economy. This crisis also presented Japan with the opportunity for transformative change. Changes have followed, some of them less than might be expected, and some of them far more sweeping than is generally realized. This volume presents a wide range of international perspectives on post-bubble Japan, exploring the effects of the long downturn on the views of the Japanese business community, management practices, and national policies. To what degree has Japan's traumatic experience prompted basic reforms in terms of legal changes, corporate governance, business strategy, and the longterm national vision for the economy? This book was originally published as a special issue of Asia Pacific Business Review.
Lost decade in translation: Did the United States learn from Japan ́s post-bubble mistakes? by Philip Tien Pdf
Studienarbeit aus dem Jahr 2007 im Fachbereich BWL - Wirtschaftspolitik, Note: 1,7, Universität Osnabrück, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: 1.1 Problemhintergrund Ende der 1990er Jahre wurden Beobachter aufmerksam auf den starken Anstieg des amerikanischen Aktienmarktes und stellten Vergleiche zu Japan Ende der 1980er auf. Ökonomen machte sich Sorgen, ob die Erfahrung die Japan mit der geplatzten Blase und einer zehn Jahre langen Stagnation auch die USA treffen könnte. Viele Ähnlichkeiten wie der starke Wirtschaftswachstum und rasches Steigen des Aktienmarktes konnten festgestellt werden. Emerging Japanese Superstate oder Japan as Number One, diese Bezeichnung erhielt Japan in den 1980er Jahren auch von amerikanischen Volkswirten. Mit einer Wachstumsrate von durchschnittlich 3,9% des BIP ließ man die Welt aufhorchen. Nach dem Platzen der Bubbles allerdings stagnierte die Wirtschaft. Ähnliches wurde auch in den USA befürchtet. Nach dem Platzen der Aktienblase wurde deutlich, dass die USA nicht in eine Stagnation gefallen war. Es braucht halt mehr "than a bubble to become Japan". 1.2 [...] 1.3 Problemstellung Ziel dieser Arbeit ist die Beantwortung der Frage, ob die USA aus den Fehlern der Japaner im Post-bubble Verhalten gelernt haben. Dafür ist es notwendig festzustellen, ob die Situationen der beiden Länder vergleichbar waren und ob die Japaner Fehler gemacht haben. Nur wenn dies der Fall ist, können die USA dieses Fehlverhalten vermieden haben. Inhaltsverzeichnis 1 Einleitung 1 1.1 Problemhintergrund 1 1.2 Begriffliche Grundlagen 1 1.3 Problemstellung 2 1.4 Gang der Untersuchung 2 2 Japan in den 1980ern und die USA in den 1990ern 2 2.1 Finanzielle Lage 3 2.2 Wirtschaftslage 4 2.3 Fiskalpolitik 5 2.4 Geldpolitik 5 2.5 Unterschiede 7 3 Situation in der Post-bubble Phase 8 3.1 Probleme in Japan Anfang der 1990er Jahre 8 3.2 Ungleichgewicht zwischen Sparen und Investitionsnachfrage 9 3.3 Probleme im Bankenwesen 10 3.4 Wechselkursbedingte Argumentation der Krise 12 3.5
Japan's Lost Decade by Gary Saxonhouse,Robert Stern Pdf
This volume explores the origins of Japan’s current economic crisis and assesses the country’s prospects for recovery. An exploration of the origins and consequences of Japan’s current economic crisis. Examines the collapse of the equity and real estate market bubbles in the late 1980s. Analyses the failure of Japanese monetary and fiscal policies to reverse the ensuing economic decline. Evaluates unorthodox options available to policy makers that might enable Japan to recover from its ‘lost decade’. Suggests that Japan’s prospects for economic recovery are still uncertain.
Japan’s Lost Decade by Naoyuki Yoshino,Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary Pdf
This book discusses Japan’s long-term economic recession and provides remedies for that recession that are useful for other Asian economies. The book addresses why Japan’s economy has stagnated since the bursting of its economic bubble in the 1990s. Its empirical analysis challenges the beliefs of some economists, such as Paul Krugman, that the Japanese economy is caught in a liquidity trap. This book argues that Japan’s economic stagnation stems from a vertical “investment–saving” (IS) curve rather than a liquidity trap. The impact of fiscal policy has declined drastically, and the Japanese economy faces structural problems rather than a temporary downturn. These structural problems have many causes: an aging demographic (a problem that is frequently overlooked), an over-reliance by local governments on transfers from the central government, and Basel capital requirements that have made Japanese banks reluctant to lend money to start-up businesses and small and medium-sized enterprises. This latter issue has discouraged Japanese innovation and technological progress. All these issues are addressed empirically and theoretically, and several remedies for Japan’s long-lasting recession are provided. This volume will be of interest to researchers and policy makers not only in Japan but also the People’s Republic of China, many countries in the eurozone, and the United States, which may face similar challenges in the future.
