Managing Risk And Uncertainty

Author : Richard Friberg
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 395 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2015-11-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780262528191

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Managing Risk and Uncertainty by Richard Friberg Pdf

A comprehensive framework for assessing strategies for managing risk and uncertainty, integrating theory and practice and synthesizing insights from many fields. This book offers a framework for making decisions under risk and uncertainty. Synthesizing research from economics, finance, decision theory, management, and other fields, the book provides a set of tools and a way of thinking that determines the relative merits of different strategies. It takes as its premise that we make better decisions if we use the whole toolkit of economics and related fields to inform our decision making. The text explores the distinction between risk and uncertainty and covers standard models of decision making under risk as well as more recent work on decision making under uncertainty, with a particular focus on strategic interaction. It also examines the implications of incomplete markets for managing under uncertainty. It presents four core strategies: a benchmark strategy (proceeding as if risk and uncertainty were low), a financial hedging strategy (valuable if there is much risk), an operational hedging strategy (valuable for conditions of much uncertainty), and a flexible strategy (valuable if there is much risk and/or uncertainty). The book then examines various aspects of these strategies in greater depth, building on empirical work in several different fields. Topics include price-setting, real options and Monte Carlo techniques, organizational structure, and behavioral biases. Many chapters include exercises and appendixes with additional material. The book can be used in graduate or advanced undergraduate courses in risk management, as a guide for researchers, or as a reference for management practitioners.

Author : Richard Friberg
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2016
Category : Corporations
ISBN : 0262331551

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Managing Risk and Uncertainty by Richard Friberg Pdf

This book offers a framework for making decisions under risk and uncertainty. Synthesizing research from economics, finance, decision theory, management, and other fields, the book provides a set of tools and a way of thinking that determines the relative merits of different strategies. It takes as its premise that we make better decisions if we use the whole toolkit of economics and related fields to inform our decision making. The text explores the distinction between risk and uncertainty and covers standard models of decision making under risk as well as more recent work on decision making.

Author : Stephen Ward,Chris Chapman
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 520 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2011-11-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780470686492

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How to Manage Project Opportunity and Risk by Stephen Ward,Chris Chapman Pdf

Since I wrote the Foreword for the second edition of this book, risk management processes have become much more widely used, but controversy about what should be done and how best to do it has grown. Managing risk is a risky business. Chapman and Ward provide an in-depth explanation of why it is important to understand and manage underlying uncertainty in all its forms, in order to realise opportunities more fully and enhance corporate performance. They show what best practice should look like. The implications go well beyond the conventional wisdom of project risk management, providing an enlightening new perspective. —Professor Tony M. Ridley Imperial College London, Past President, Institution of Civil Engineers Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward continue to educate the profession with this masterful exposition of the differences between, and the potentials for combinations of, risk, uncertainty and opportunity. Particularly welcome is the way they integrate this trio into the project lifecycle – the bedrock of project management control and organization. —Peter W.G. Morris Head of School and Professor of Construction and Project Management University College London Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward’s books on Project Risk Management have been an essential part of my repertoire for twenty years, and they are top of my recommended reading for the courses I do on that subject. In this book they have enhanced their previous work to focus on uncertainty management and emphasise more strongly opportunities for improving project performance, rather then just identifying what can go wrong. A structured process is an essential part of managing project uncertainty, and their process is one of the most powerful. This book will be added to my repertoire. —Rodney Turner Professor of Project Management, SKEMA Business School Lille A profoundly important book. With How to Manage Project Opportunity and Risk, Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward take a good thing and make it better. Members of the project management profession have been influenced for years by their insights into project risk management. With this latest instalment the authors demonstrate that risk and uncertainty needn’t be dreaded; in fact, the reverse side of the ‘risk coin’ has always been opportunity. My sincere appreciation to Chapman and Ward for turning this particular coin over and showing readers, academic and practitioner alike, the opportunity embedded in managing projects. —Jeffrey K. Pinto Andrew Morrow and Elizabeth Lee Black Chair in Management of Technology Sam and Irene Black School of Business, Penn State Erie

Author : Hugh Courtney
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
Page : 209 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2001
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1578512662

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20/20 Foresight by Hugh Courtney Pdf

In the midst of a changing economy, most executives continue to use a strategy toolkit designed for yesterday's more stable marketplace. As a result, strategies emerge that neither manage the risks nor take advantage of the opportunities that arise in highly uncertain times. Now, McKinsey shows strategists how to tailor every aspect of the decision-making process-from formulation to implementation-to the level of uncertainty faced, describes the strategic-planning processes readers can use to monitor, update, and revise strategies as necessary in volatile markets, and includes a toolkit for identifying, developing, and testing new strategy options-complete with guidelines for applying the right tool to the right situation at the right time. A comprehensive approach to strategy development under all possible levels of uncertainty and across all kinds of industries, this is the essential guide for making tough strategic choices in a changing world. Hugh Courtney is an Associate Principal with the Global Strategy Practice at McKinsey Company in Washington D.C.

Author : Nick Firoozye,Fauziah Ariff
Publisher : Springer
Page : 265 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2016-04-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781137334541

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Managing Uncertainty, Mitigating Risk by Nick Firoozye,Fauziah Ariff Pdf

Managing Uncertainty, Mitigating Risk proposes that financial risk management broaden its approach, maintaining quantification where possible, but incorporating uncertainty. The author shows that by using broad quantification techniques, and using reason as the guiding principle, practitioners can see a more holistic and complete picture.

Author : Stephen Ward,Chris Chapman
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 520 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2011-09-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781119966654

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How to Manage Project Opportunity and Risk by Stephen Ward,Chris Chapman Pdf

Since I wrote the Foreword for the second edition of this book, risk management processes have become much more widely used, but controversy about what should be done and how best to do it has grown. Managing risk is a risky business. Chapman and Ward provide an in-depth explanation of why it is important to understand and manage underlying uncertainty in all its forms, in order to realise opportunities more fully and enhance corporate performance. They show what best practice should look like. The implications go well beyond the conventional wisdom of project risk management, providing an enlightening new perspective. —Professor Tony M. Ridley Imperial College London, Past President, Institution of Civil Engineers Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward continue to educate the profession with this masterful exposition of the differences between, and the potentials for combinations of, risk, uncertainty and opportunity. Particularly welcome is the way they integrate this trio into the project lifecycle – the bedrock of project management control and organization. —Peter W.G. Morris Head of School and Professor of Construction and Project Management University College London Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward’s books on Project Risk Management have been an essential part of my repertoire for twenty years, and they are top of my recommended reading for the courses I do on that subject. In this book they have enhanced their previous work to focus on uncertainty management and emphasise more strongly opportunities for improving project performance, rather then just identifying what can go wrong. A structured process is an essential part of managing project uncertainty, and their process is one of the most powerful. This book will be added to my repertoire. —Rodney Turner Professor of Project Management, SKEMA Business School Lille A profoundly important book. With How to Manage Project Opportunity and Risk, Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward take a good thing and make it better. Members of the project management profession have been influenced for years by their insights into project risk management. With this latest instalment the authors demonstrate that risk and uncertainty needn’t be dreaded; in fact, the reverse side of the ‘risk coin’ has always been opportunity. My sincere appreciation to Chapman and Ward for turning this particular coin over and showing readers, academic and practitioner alike, the opportunity embedded in managing projects. —Jeffrey K. Pinto Andrew Morrow and Elizabeth Lee Black Chair in Management of Technology Sam and Irene Black School of Business, Penn State Erie

Author : David Cleden
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 131 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 2017-03-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781351920414

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Managing Project Uncertainty by David Cleden Pdf

Dealing effectively with uncertainty requires today's project manager to be familiar with a broad spectrum of strategies, encompassing both 'hard' and 'soft' methods. This theme of unified thinking (i.e. the need to selectively draw upon a wide range of strategies in any given situation) will differentiate the book from its contemporaries. By picking up where traditional risk management techniques begin to fail, it brings together leading-edge thinking from a variety of disciplines and shows how these techniques can be used to conquer uncertainty in projects. The ability to make good decisions when faced with uncertainty is the real challenge. It is a universal truth that a decision is only as good as the information it is based on. But good information is often hard to come by, and all projects are vulnerable to the unknown and the unknowable. Thus, uncertainty becomes the sworn enemy of the project manager. Wherever we try to analyse, quantify, plan and act, uncertainty lies in wait to surprise us with its ambiguity and unpredictability. It lurks in every stage of the project lifecycle: in the planning (how long will this really take?), the initiation (this isn't the situation I expected!), the execution (who could have foreseen that happening?), and even the completion of a project (where are the expected benefits?). But managing uncertainty is a lot more than just applying risk management techniques. It requires a deep appreciation of how uncertainty arises and, by recognising its different guises, the appropriate strategies can be formulated. If we can learn how to reduce uncertainty, we can make better management decisions and increase the chances of the project succeeding. This book addresses five key questions: ¢ Why is there uncertainty in projects? ¢ How do you spot the symptoms of uncertainty, preferably at an early stage? ¢ What can be done to avoid uncertainty? ¢ What strategies can be used to deal with project uncertainty? ¢ How can both the individual and the organisation learn to cope more effectively in the future? The reader is assumed to be a either a project management professional, or a senior manager looking for ways to improve project management strategy within their organisation. As such, a foundation in project management basics is assumed, although not essential. The book then builds on this by exposing new ideas and concepts, and shows how these can be harnessed to tackle uncertainty in its many guises.

Author : Chris Chapman,Stephen Ward
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 520 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2002-10-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UCSD:31822031898158

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Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty by Chris Chapman,Stephen Ward Pdf

This title confidently puts forward a practical, new approach to decision making in an uncertain business world. Many variables are accounted for and the authors are innovative in integrating previous types of decision-making approaches with a more fluid, and therefore realistic model that can be applied across a wide range of contexts and decisions. A new title on a important topic that not only stands well on its own, but also complements Chapman and Ward's previous title Project Risk Management. This book is practical and rigorous yet written in an engaging way. It is perfect for courses, or to be used by practitioners.

Author : Dr Dieter Fink
Publisher : Gower Publishing, Ltd.
Page : 270 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2014-01-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781472419064

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Project Risk Governance by Dr Dieter Fink Pdf

In Project Risk Governance, Dieter Fink breaks new ground in two ways. Firstly, he places project risk management in the context of today’s organisations in which objectives are increasingly implemented through projects to better respond to fast-changing markets. Secondly, he applies a governance perspective to examine project risk at the project and corporate levels, an approach which is significantly under-researched and for which theoretical knowledge and professional practice are at an early stage of maturity. Project risk governance falls between corporate governance and project governance and is attracting increasing attention. The author argues that there are two reasons for this. The first is the ‘projectisation’ of organisations, in particular within organisations conforming to the Project-Based Organisation (PBO) model. The second is the prevalence of a strategic approach to managing risk for the purposes of protecting organisational values and creating competitive advantage. The book addresses governance, strategy, value management and building enterprise-wide Project Risk Governance (PRG) capabilities. Chapters examine the role of projects in organisations and the need to integrate project and business strategy within the framework of the Project-Based Organisation. PRG is introduced via its links with corporate and project governance and its scope is covered in chapters that identify relevant processes, structures and relationship mechanisms. Contextual influences such as the professionalisation of project management are recognised and insights provided to increase readers’ understanding of uncertainty, risk events, and probabilities and of the essential requirements of managing risks at project level. The final chapter provides a roadmap to the stages and dimensions of a PRG maturity model.

Author : V.T. Covello,Lester B. Lave,Alan Moghissi,V.R.R. Uppuluri
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 523 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2013-03-08
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781468453171

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Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making by V.T. Covello,Lester B. Lave,Alan Moghissi,V.R.R. Uppuluri Pdf

The subject of this volume--uncertainties in risk assessment and management--reflects an important theme in health, safety, and environ mental decision making. MOst technological hazards are characterized by substantial uncertainty. Recent examples include nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, asbestos in schools, carcinogens in food, and hazardous waste. realing with such uncertainty is arguably the most difficult and challeng ing task facing risk assessors and managers today. Four primary sources of uncertainty in risk assessment and management can be identified: (1) uncertainties about definitions; (2) uncertainties about scientific facts; (3) uncertainties about risk perceptions and atti tudes; and (4) uncertainties about values. Uncertainties about definitions derive primarily from disagreements about the meaning and interpretation of key concepts, such as probability. Uncertainties about scientific facts derive primarily from disagreements about failure modes, the probability and magnitude of adverse health or environmental consequences, cause and effect relationships, dose-response relationships, and exposure patterns. Uncertainties about risk perceptions and attitudes derive primarily from disagreements about what constitutes a significant or acceptable level of risk. Uncertainties about values derive primarily from disagreements about the desirability or worth of alternative risk management actions or conse quences. The papers in this volume address each of these sources of uncertainty from a variety of perspectives. Reflecting the broad scope of risk assess ment and risk management research, the papers include contributions from safety engineers, epidemiologists, toxicologists, chemists, biostatisticians, biologists, decision analysts, economists, psychologists, political scien tists, sociologists, ethicists, and lawyers.

Author : Carlo C. Jaeger,Thomas Webler,Eugene A. Rosa,Ortwin Renn
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 321 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2013-11-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781134203024

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Risk, Uncertainty and Rational Action by Carlo C. Jaeger,Thomas Webler,Eugene A. Rosa,Ortwin Renn Pdf

Risk as we now know it is a wholly new phenomenon, the by-product of our ever more complex and powerful technologies. In business, policy making, and in everyday life, it demands a new way of looking at technological and environmental uncertainty. In this definitive volume, four of the world's leading risk researchers present a fundamental critique of the prevailing approaches to understanding and managing risk - the 'rational actor paradigm'. They show how risk studies must incorporate the competing interests, values, and rationalities of those involved and find a balance of trust and acceptable risk. Their work points to a comprehensive and significant new theory of risk and uncertainty and of the decision making process they require. The implications for social, political, and environmental theory and practice are enormous. Winner of the 2000-2002 Outstanding Publication Award of the Section on Environment and Technology of the American Sociological Association

Author : Alan R Winberg
Publisher : Westview Press
Page : 314 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 1987-01-18
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UOM:39015058577670

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Managing Risk And Uncertainty In International Trade by Alan R Winberg Pdf

Author : Guy M. Merritt
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 250 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2020-10-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781482278224

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Proactive Risk Management by Guy M. Merritt Pdf

Listed as one of the 30 Best Business Books of 2002 by Executive Book Summaries. Proactive Risk Management's unique approach provides a model of risk that is scalable to any size project or program and easily deployable into any product development or project management life cycle. It offers methods for identifying drivers (causes) of risks so you can manage root causes rather than the symptoms of risks. Providing you with an appropriate quantification of the key factors of a risk allows you to prioritize those risks without introducing errors that render the numbers meaningless. This book stands apart from much of the literature on project risk management in its practical, easy-to-use, fact-based approach to managing all of the risks associated with a project. The depth of actual how-to information and techniques provided here is not available anywhere else.

Author : Christoph H. Loch,Arnoud DeMeyer,Michael Pich
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 393 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2011-11-30
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781118276822

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Managing the Unknown by Christoph H. Loch,Arnoud DeMeyer,Michael Pich Pdf

Managing the Unknown offers a new way of looking at the problem of managing projects in novel and unknown environments. From Europe's leading business school, this book shows how to manage two fundamental approaches that, in combination, offer the possibility of coping with unforeseen influences that inevitably arise in novel projects: * Trial-and-Error Learning allows for redefining the plan and the project as the project unfolds * Selectionism pursues multiple, independent trials in order to pick the best one at the end Managing the Unknown offers expert guidelines to the specific project mindsets, infrastructures, and management methods required to use these project management approaches and achieve success in spite of unforeseen obstacles. This book equips readers with: * Causal explanations of why unforeseeable factors in novel projects make traditional project planning and project risk management insufficient * Directly applicable management tools that help managers to guide novel and high-uncertainty projects * Real-world case studies of both successful and unsuccessful approaches to managing high uncertainty in novel projects

Author : Krista N. Engemann,Kurt J. Engemann,Cliff W. Scott
Publisher : Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
Page : 245 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2022-07-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783110670240

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Organizational Risk Management by Krista N. Engemann,Kurt J. Engemann,Cliff W. Scott Pdf

Every organization faces difficult decisions when managing risk and the potential consequences of its manifestation. For a more thorough outlook on risk, organizations should also evaluate and engage with its advantages. Organizational Risk Management: Managing for Uncertainty and Ambiguity covers a series of perspectives that represent both causal and interpretative frameworks. These perspectives shed light on how organizational structures and processes adapt amid a complex, dynamic organizational environment in an effort to manage and exploit the accompanying risks of that environment. This volume will oftentimes challenge the expectation for and utility of clarity in crisis situations, thereby favoring uncertainty and ambiguity as the necessary conditions to exploit organizational risk and explore opportunities that rely on interpretation, learning, and knowledge among individuals. The ultimate objective of Organizational Risk Management: Managing for Uncertainty and Ambiguity is to promote discussion among practitioners and organizational scholars who venture to understand organizational risk. Setting such a goal is to essentially practice what this volume shall inevitably preach: engage one another in order to proactively monitor and respond to risk. Strengthening ties along the bridge between practice and science will be a welcomed consequence of this volume.