Monitoring The Agri Food System In Myanmar The Rising Costs Of Healthy Diets December 2021 Survey Round
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Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: The rising costs of healthy diets - December 2021 survey round by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Pdf
This Research Note presents the results from ten rounds of a telephone survey with food vendors conducted in rural and urban zones throughout Myanmar and focuses on the results from the latest round completed in December 2021. The purpose of the survey is to provide data and insights on Myanmar’s food markets to interested stakeholders to foster better understanding of the effects of shocks related to COVID-19 and the ongoing political crisis. In particular, the note explores changes in food prices and their impact on the cost of common and healthy diets.
Monitoring the Agri-food System in Myanmar: The rising costs of diets and declining purchasing power of casual wage laborers: June 2020–August 2023 by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Pdf
We assess changes in food prices and purchasing power of casual wage laborers based on largescale surveys of food vendors (fielded from June 2020 until August 2023) and households (fielded in 5 periods in 2022 and 2023) in rural and urban areas and in all state/regions of Myanmar. Key Findings Over the full period (June 2020 - August 2023), the cost of the healthy diet rose by 111 percent and the common diet by 130 percent. After a reprieve from high food inflation in the first half of 2023, prices increased rapidly in Q3 resulting in a 23 and 27 percent increase in the healthy and common diets, respectively, in August 2023 compared to the previous year, when food prices were already very high. Rice – the major staple – prices increased by 67 percent between August 2022 and August 2023. Over the full period (June 2020 to August 2023), pulse, pork, and leafy green prices approximately doubled; rice prices nearly tripled; potato and onion prices more than tripled; and oil prices more than quadrupled. The value of daily wages of construction and agricultural wage laborers relative to common and healthy diet costs declined by about 18 and 16 percent between the Q2 of 2022 and Q2 of 2023. However, rising wages increased more rapidly in the first half of 2023 while food inflation slowed which stabilized diet adjusted wages. Food costs outpaced wages between Q2 of 2022 and Q2 of 2023, making food increasingly unaffordable for wage earners who are among the most vulnerable household groups in Myanmar, particularly in rural areas. Recommended Actions Food should be available at low costs to avoid food security and nutrition problems in the country; assuring a well-functioning agri-food system should therefore be a priority for all stakeholders. As casual wage workers are among the poorest and as their situation is worsening, they should be targeted in social safety net programs.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: The rising costs of diets and declining purchasing power of casual wage laborers: June 2020 - February 2023 by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Pdf
We assess changes in food prices and purchasing power of casual wage laborers based on large-scale surveys of food vendors (fielded from June 2020 until February 2023) and households in rural and urban areas and in all state/regions of Myanmar. Key findings Over the full period (June 2020 - February 2023), the cost of the healthy diet rose by 72 percent and the common diet by 82 percent. Prices for rice –the major staple– increased by 62 percent between March 2022 and February 2023. The costs of a common and healthy diet increased especially over the year 2022, by 50 and 51 percent respectively between Q1 of 2022 and Q4 of 2022. Diet costs increased more in rural areas compared to urban areas and more in the Dry Zone and coastal areas – which are more affected by conflicts – compared to the national average. The value of daily wages of construction and agricultural wage laborers relative to common and healthy diet costs declined by about 25 and 28 percent over the year 2022. Food costs are outpacing wages, making food increasingly unaffordable for wage earners who are among the most vulnerable household groups in Myanmar, particularly in rural areas. Recommended actions Food should be available at low costs to avoid food insecurity and nutrition problems in the country; assuring a well-functioning agri-food system should therefore be a priority for all stakeholders. Casual wage workers are among the poorest and their situation is worsening. They should therefore be targeted in social safety net programs. It is important to closely monitor food prices and the wages of the poor - they are good proxies for purchasing power and welfare and can be measured at high frequency.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Food vendors - December 2021 survey round by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Pdf
This Research Note presents the results from a telephone survey with food vendors conducted in rural and urban zones throughout Myanmar and focuses on the results from the latest round completed in December 2021. The purpose of the survey is to provide data and insights to interested stakeholders in order that they better understand the effects of shocks related to COVID-19 and the ongoing political crisis on Myanmar’s food markets. In particular, the note explores COVID-19 prevention measures, changes in shopping behavior, difficulties in food vendor operations due to the COVID-19 and political crises, changes in availability and prices of foods, and perceived changes in consumption.
Dietary quality and nutrition in Myanmar: Past progress, current and future challenges by Mahrt, Kristi,Headey, Derek D.,Ecker, Olivier,Comstock, Andrew R.,Tauseef, Salauddin Pdf
In the decade prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Myanmar was in the midst of a dietary transition driven by rapid economic growth and urbanization. In this study, we first use national survey data to compare household diets in 2015 to the healthy diet recommendations of food-based dietary guidelines adapted for Myanmar, as well as estimated nutrient consumption relative to recommended intakes. We use these food group and nutrient consumption gaps to estimate a new measure of multidimensional dietary deprivation developed by Pauw et al. (2022), and a novel extension of that index to nutrient deprivation. Both deprivation indices are strongly negatively correlated with total household expenditure. We then use food demand estimation to estimate income and own price elasticities, which reveal strong preferences for animal-sourced foods, but weaker preferences for vegetables and pulses. Expenditure data also point to strong demand for oils/fats – a problem observed throughout developing Asia (Pingali and Abraham 2022) – and for food away from home, which partially explains the rising burden of overweight/obesity in Myanmar. Moreover, since most nutrient-dense foods are income- and price-elastic, estimated income elasticities suggest that recent declines in household income and increases in food prices in Myanmar will result in declining dietary diversity. We show that this is indeed the case utilizing household phone surveys conducted in recent years. We first use a food vendor survey to show that the cost of a healthy diet increased by 61 percent between September 2021 and September 2022. Next, we analyze a rural Dry Zone panel survey implemented 10 times over 2020-2021 and find that maternal and child dietary diversity both declined significantly as Myanmar’s economic situation deteriorated. Then, in a nationally representative phone survey conducted quarterly in 2022 over a period of rapid food inflation, we find further deterioration in diet quality among adults, but no deterioration among children 6-23 months of age, suggesting parents may be trying to insulate their children from the worst effects of the crisis. Finally, we conclude the paper by discussing policy and program options in very difficult political circumstances. Malnutrition is a multidimensional problem requiring multisectoral solutions, but at present the breakdown in the provision of even basic services makes significant progress highly unlikely, and reversing the recent deterioration in dietary quality and nutrition will surely require resolution of Myanmar’s political crisis. In the interim, we discuss three potentially effective types of interventions: (1) rice fortification to reduce micronutrient deficiencies; (2) homestead food production to improve dietary quality in farm households and rural and peri-urban communities; and (3) nutrition-sensitive social protection for vulnerable mothers and young children, with transfers ideally accompanied by nutrition education interventions.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Food vendors - September 2021 survey round by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Pdf
Most food retail prices in September 2021 were found to be substantially higher than in September 2020. Retail prices of the cheapest variety of rice–by far the most important staple in Myanmar–have risen by 8 percent, on average. The relatively more expensive but widely locally consumed rice (pawsan) increased by 17 percent. Relative to September 2020, national-level food price inflation in September 2021 stood at 11 percent. Inflation was highest in the Hills and Mountains areas (15 percent). Households in the poorest quintile were affected by food price inflation more than those in the richest while rural areas (12 percent) were exposed to almost twice the level of food inflation compared to urban areas (6 percent). Food availability is seemingly not a challenge at the national level in September 2021. Food vendors report that availability of most commodities is comparable to the same period in a normal year. However, there are increasing trade frictions with higher transportation costs and more frequent mobility issues due to lockdowns and insecurity problems. COVID-19 prevention measures were widely practiced by market vendors in 2020. While they had been abandoned by a substantial share of vendors surveyed in the middle of the year, these prevention measures were again widely adhered to in September 2021.
Food prices and the wages of the poor: A low-cost, high-value approach to high-frequency food security monitoring by Headey, Derek D.,Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane,Marshall, Quinn,Raghunathan, Kalyani,Mahrt, Kristi Pdf
International food prices have become increasingly volatile in recent decades, with “global food crises” in 2008, 2011 and most recently in 2022. The 2008 crisis prompted international agencies to ambitiously extend their monitoring of domestic food prices in developing countries to strengthen early warning systems and food and nutrition surveillance. However, food inflation by itself is not sufficient for measuring disposable income or food affordability; for that, one must measure either changes in income or changes in an income proxy. Here we propose the use of a low-cost income proxy that can be monitored at the same high frequency and spatial granularity as food prices: the wages of poor unskilled workers. While not all poor people are unskilled wage earners, changes in the real “reservation wages” of low skilled activities are likely to be highly predictive of changes in disposable income for poorer segments of society (Deaton and Dreze 2002). We demonstrate this by estimating changes in “food wages” – wages deflated food price indices – during well-documented food price crises in Ethiopia (2008, 2011 and 2022), Sri Lanka (2022) and Myanmar (2022). In all these instances, food wages declined by 20-30%, often in the space of a few months. Moreover, in Myanmar we use a household panel survey data to show that the decline in food wages over the course of 2022 closely matches estimate declines in household disposable income and proportional increases in income-based poverty. We argue that the affordability of nutritious food for “all people, at all times” is a critically important dimension of food security, and we advocate for monitoring the wages of the poor as a cheap and accurate means of capturing that dimension.
The state of food security and Nutrition in Myanmar 2022-23: Findings from six rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey by Myanmar Agricultural Policy Support Activity Pdf
This working paper explores the state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar using 6 rounds of nationally representative household panel data collected from December 2021 to November 2023. Overall, the state of food security and nutrition has deteriorated in Myanmar in 2022-23. More than 3 percent of households were in moderate to severe hunger in September-November 2023. Hunger was highest in Chin (8.7 percent) and Tanintharyi (7.0 percent). Households with a low food consumption score increased from 9.4 percent in December 2021-February 2022 to 15.9 percent in October-December 2022 and remained high at 14.4 percent in September-November 2023. The shares in September-November 2023 were highest in Chin (38.2 percent), Kayah (22.4 percent), and Magway (20 percent). Inadequate diet diversity among adults rose from 20.6 percent to 30.9 percent over December 2021-February 2022 to October-December 2022, with an increase of 5.9 percentage points in the past one year. Women saw a faster decline in diet quality from December-February 2022 to September-November 2023 (12.1 percentage points increase in poor diet quality vs 8.4 percentage points for men). Decreases in diet quality among adults are driven by lower consumption of milk and dairy products as well as Vitamin A rich fruits, meat, fish, and eggs. 34.5 percent of all children aged 6-23 months and nearly a quarter (23.6 percent) of all children aged 6-59 months had inadequate diet quality in the latest round of survey. Regression analysis reveals low income and limited assets to be important risk factors for food security and adequate diet quality. Wage workers and low wage communities are found to be particularly vulnerable. Rising food prices, conflict and physical insecurity increase the likelihood of poor diet quality. Receiving remittances is a source of resilience; remittance-receiving households are less likely to experience hunger or poor dietary diversity at the household, adult, and child level. To avert a full-blown nutrition crisis in Myanmar, effective multisectoral steps are required to protect nutritionally vulnerable populations. Expanded implementation of nutrition- and gender sensitive social protection programs, including maternal and child cash transfers, particularly to vulnerable groups is called for. Further, given the importance of remittances as an effective coping mechanism, supporting migration and the flow of remittances would help to improve the welfare of the Myanmar population.
Livelihoods, poverty, and food insecurity in Myanmar: Survey evidence from June 2020 to December 2021 by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Pdf
Ten rounds of the Rural-Urban Food Security Survey (RUFSS) have been conducted between June 2020 and December 2021 to assess the impacts of Myanmar’s economic, political, and health crises on various dimensions of household welfare. RUFSS interviews about 2000 mothers of young children per round from urban Yangon, the rural Dry Zone, and recent migrants from these areas.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Food vendors - July 2021 survey round by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Pdf
Most food retail prices in July 2021 were found to be higher than in the same period in 2020. Retail prices of the cheapest variety of rice–by far the most important staple in Myanmar–have risen by 13 percent, on average. Relative to a year ago, national-level food price inflation in July 2021 stood at 7 percent. Food price inflation was relatively higher in rural versus urban areas and in the Dry Zone and the Coastal areas. Households in the poorest quintile faced much higher food price inflation (10.4 percent) than those in the richest quintile (4.3 percent) as rice and cooking oils, which prices have increased substantially over the last year, are relatively more important in the poor’s food basket. Over the last year, prices rose most rapidly in the first half of 2021; the cost of a food basket in July 2021 was 8 percent higher than in December 2020. Food availability is seemingly not a challenge at the national level in July 2021. Food vendors report that the availability of most commodities is comparable to the same period in a normal year. About three-quarters of food vendors indicate that customers are buying less animal-sourced foods (i.e., chicken and pork) compared to normal periods. This likely is an indication of reduced consumer income as well as higher prices for those products. COVID-19 prevention measures were widely practiced by market vendors in 2020. However, they had been abandoned by a substantial share of the vendors surveyed in May 2021. Adoption rates in July 2021 improved compared to the previous survey round in May 2021 but were still below 2020 levels.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural crop traders – September 2021 survey by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Pdf
To understand the effects of COVID-19 and political instability on Myanmar’s crop trade sector, a phone survey of commodity traders was conducted in September 2021. Key Findings The most significant disruptions to crop trading in September were in banking and transportation. Sixty percent of respondents reported higher transportation costs and 47 percent reported difficulties making and receiving payments for crops, respectively. Sixty-one percent of traders reported difficulties collecting repayment from farmers on credit lent out. Although over half the sample offered credit to farmers in the 2021 monsoon season, there was an 8 percent decline relative to the 2020 monsoon season. Overall, 82 percent of the credit lent to farmers has not yet been repaid and 37 percent of traders do not expect full repayment before the 2022 monsoon season. There was also a 9 percent decline in the share of traders taking credit in during the 2021 monsoon season (15 percent) relative to 2020 (24 percent) and 44 percent of the traders taking credit do not expect to fully repay these debts before the 2022 monsoon season. Sixty-three percent of traders reported lower overall trade volumes in September 2021 relative to the same time in 2020. For the main crop traded, average daily turnover was down by 5 percent and storage volumes were down by 6 percent. Hired transportation costs increased by an average of 23 percent relative to September 2020 and 56 percent of traders reported fewer trips to buy crops. Looking ahead If these hurdles persist into the monsoon marketing season, they will present challenges to farmers as they try to sell their harvests. Indeed, there are already signs of reduced marketing opportunities in September going into the harvest season. Removal of curfews and travel restrictions at each administrative level would lessen some of the marketing challenges. Delayed repayment of farmer credit combined with a heavy dependency on cash for transactions may lead to a cycle of reduced credit to farmers for winter and summer seasons.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural input retailers – September 2021 survey round by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Pdf
To understand the effects of COVID-19 and political instability on Myanmar’s agricultural input sector, a phone survey of 123 input retailers throughout the country was conducted in September 2021. Key findings: Input prices, especially fertilizer, have soared compared to a year ago due to a combination of higher international prices, depreciation of the Myanmar Kyat, and higher freight and domestic transport costs. Faced with price increases of 76 percent on average for compound fertilizer and 132 percent for urea (compared to a year ago), farmers reduced their purchases by 38 percent and 42 percent, respectively. If the decline in fertilizer sales is extended to all of Myanmar, estimated monsoon crop production may fall by 8 percent to 12 percent, equivalent to between $670 million and $1 billion at 2017 prices. Recommendations: The post-monsoon cropping season will be an important opportunity to partially compensate for lower monsoon season production. There is no indication that international fertilizer prices will fall significantly before planting time, however. A combination of temporary fertilizer subsidies and expanded seasonal credit will likely be necessary to encourage farmers to increase crop production.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Understanding the rapid price increase of vegetable oils by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Pdf
This Research Note presents the results from an assessment of the evolution of vegetable oil prices in Myanmar. Vegetable oils are an important product in the diet of Myanmar consumers and high food inflation in the country - 19 percent between December 2022 compared to December 2021 (MAPSA 2022) - is partly explained by substantial price increases for vegetable oils. The purpose of this analysis is to provide insights on what might explain the price increases of vegetable oils in local markets. To do this assessment, we rely on different secondary data sources as well as MAPSA’s food vendor survey conducted in March 2022 in all states/regions of the country. In this survey, 419 food vendors provided information on the sale of vegetable oils. We also rely on information from key informants in the sector.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Maize farmers – Monsoon season phone surveys by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Pdf
To understand the effects of recent economic and political disruptions on Myanmar’s maize farmers during the monsoon season, we conducted two telephone surveys with 1,178 farmers in July and September 2021. Key Findings There were widespread disruptions throughout the 2021 monsoon season: 11 percent of respondents were displaced by violence in July, and most farmers had had enforced transportation restrictions in their village tracts (58 percent) and their townships (84 percent). Seventy percent of farmers expect these restrictions to affect their monsoon marketing. Two-thirds of respondents received farm credit for inputs in the 2021 monsoon season, an increase of 3 percentage points relative to 2020, and average credit values increased slightly. Most credit was provided by traders (27 percent receiving), which may be unique to maize production as there are broader credit declines in other parts of the country and maize prices have increased in 2021. Additionally, exports to Thailand have been robust. High fertilizer prices will likely lead to a decline in application rates as 63 percent of farmers reported reduced input use, which will negatively affect yields. Median maize farm sizes fell by one acre in 2021 relative to 2020, though average maize acreages were stable. Pest incidence rates (72 percent reporting problems), especially for fall armyworm (45 percent), were high in July, posing another threat to production. There was a decline in access to formal extension services, particularly for information provided by input companies and government extension agents. Farmers increasingly turned to neighbors for agricultural advice.
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Rice millers – April 2021 survey round by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Pdf
Rice mills are the most important link in Myanmar’s rice value chain. Mills buy paddy from farmers and process it into rice, the primary staple of Myanmar accounting for more than 50 percent of calories consumed in the country. Thus, disruptions to the milling sector have important upstream implications for farm incomes as well as downstream implications for household food security. In this Research Note, we present results and analysis of recent economic disruptions to rice mills from an April 2021 round of a telephone panel survey of 445 millers in Ayeyarwady, Bago, and Yangon. We examine (i) disruptions caused by the current political and COVID-19 crises; (ii) responses to these disruptions; and (iii) and price changes for paddy, head rice, broken rice, and rice bran in April 2021 relative to April 2020 and to January 2021, prior to the political crisis that began on 1 February.
