Overconfidence And War

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Overconfidence and War

Dominic D. P. Johnson
Overconfidence and War Book PDF

Author : Dominic D. P. Johnson
Publisher : Harvard University Press
Page : 289 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2009-07-01
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780674039162

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Overconfidence and War by Dominic D. P. Johnson Pdf

Opponents rarely go to war without thinking they can win--and clearly, one side must be wrong. This conundrum lies at the heart of the so-called "war puzzle": rational states should agree on their differences in power and thus not fight. But as Dominic Johnson argues in Overconfidence and War, states are no more rational than people, who are susceptible to exaggerated ideas of their own virtue, of their ability to control events, and of the future. By looking at this bias--called "positive illusions"--as it figures in evolutionary biology, psychology, and the politics of international conflict, this book offers compelling insights into why states wage war. Johnson traces the effects of positive illusions on four turning points in twentieth-century history: two that erupted into war (World War I and Vietnam); and two that did not (the Munich crisis and the Cuban missile crisis). Examining the two wars, he shows how positive illusions have filtered into politics, causing leaders to overestimate themselves and underestimate their adversaries--and to resort to violence to settle a conflict against unreasonable odds. In the Munich and Cuban missile crises, he shows how lessening positive illusions may allow leaders to pursue peaceful solutions. The human tendency toward overconfidence may have been favored by natural selection throughout our evolutionary history because of the advantages it conferred--heightening combat performance or improving one's ability to bluff an opponent. And yet, as this book suggests--and as the recent conflict in Iraq bears out--in the modern world the consequences of this evolutionary legacy are potentially deadly.

Failing to Win

Dominic D. P. Johnson,Dominic Tierney
Failing to Win Book PDF

Author : Dominic D. P. Johnson,Dominic Tierney
Publisher : Harvard University Press
Page : 358 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2009-07-01
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780674039179

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Failing to Win by Dominic D. P. Johnson,Dominic Tierney Pdf

How do people decide which country came out ahead in a war or a crisis? Why, for instance, was the Mayaguez Incident in May 1975--where 41 U.S. soldiers were killed and dozens more wounded in a botched hostage rescue mission--perceived as a triumph and the 1992-94 U.S. humanitarian intervention in Somalia, which saved thousands of lives, viewed as a disaster? In Failing to Win, Dominic Johnson and Dominic Tierney dissect the psychological factors that predispose leaders, media, and the public to perceive outcomes as victories or defeats--often creating wide gaps between perceptions and reality. To make their case, Johnson and Tierney employ two frameworks: "Scorekeeping," which focuses on actual material gains and losses; and "Match-fixing," where evaluations become skewed by mindsets, symbolic events, and media and elite spin. In case studies ranging from the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and the current War on Terror, the authors show that much of what we accept about international politics and world history is not what it seems--and why, in a time when citizens offer or withdraw support based on an imagined view of the outcome rather than the result on the ground, perceptions of success or failure can shape the results of wars, the fate of leaders, and the "lessons" we draw from history.

Strategic Instincts

Dominic D. P. Johnson
Strategic Instincts Book PDF

Author : Dominic D. P. Johnson
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 392 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2022-08-30
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780691210605

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Strategic Instincts by Dominic D. P. Johnson Pdf

"A very timely book."—Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO of New America How cognitive biases can guide good decision making in politics and international relations A widespread assumption in political science and international relations is that cognitive biases—quirks of the brain we all share as human beings—are detrimental and responsible for policy failures, disasters, and wars. In Strategic Instincts, Dominic Johnson challenges this assumption, explaining that these nonrational behaviors can actually support favorable results in international politics and contribute to political and strategic success. By studying past examples, he considers the ways that cognitive biases act as “strategic instincts,” lending a competitive edge in policy decisions, especially under conditions of unpredictability and imperfect information. Drawing from evolutionary theory and behavioral sciences, Johnson looks at three influential cognitive biases—overconfidence, the fundamental attribution error, and in-group/out-group bias. He then examines the advantageous as well as the detrimental effects of these biases through historical case studies of the American Revolution, the Munich Crisis, and the Pacific campaign in World War II. He acknowledges the dark side of biases—when confidence becomes hubris, when attribution errors become paranoia, and when group bias becomes prejudice. Ultimately, Johnson makes a case for a more nuanced understanding of the causes and consequences of cognitive biases and argues that in the complex world of international relations, strategic instincts can, in the right context, guide better performance. Strategic Instincts shows how an evolutionary perspective can offer the crucial next step in bringing psychological insights to bear on foundational questions in international politics.

Revolution and War

Stephen M. Walt
Revolution and War Book PDF

Author : Stephen M. Walt
Publisher : Cornell University Press
Page : 382 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2013-08-09
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780801470011

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Revolution and War by Stephen M. Walt Pdf

Revolution within a state almost invariably leads to intense security competition between states, and often to war. In Revolution and War, Stephen M. Walt explains why this is so, and suggests how the risk of conflicts brought on by domestic upheaval might be reduced in the future. In doing so, he explores one of the basic questions of international relations: What are the connections between domestic politics and foreign policy? Walt begins by exposing the flaws in existing theories about the relationship between revolution and war. Drawing on the theoretical literature about revolution and the realist perspective on international politics, he argues that revolutions cause wars by altering the balance of threats between a revolutionary state and its rivals. Each state sees the other as both a looming danger and a vulnerable adversary, making war seem both necessary and attractive. Walt traces the dynamics of this argument through detailed studies of the French, Russian, and Iranian revolutions, and through briefer treatment of the American, Mexican, Turkish, and Chinese cases. He also considers the experience of the Soviet Union, whose revolutionary transformation led to conflict within the former Soviet empire but not with the outside world. An important refinement of realist approaches to international politics, this book unites the study of revolution with scholarship on the causes of war.

Blinders, Blunders, and Wars

David C. Gompert,Hans Binnendijk,Bonny Lin
Blinders Blunders and Wars Book PDF

Author : David C. Gompert,Hans Binnendijk,Bonny Lin
Publisher : Rand Corporation
Page : 328 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2014-11-26
Category : History
ISBN : 9780833087782

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Blinders, Blunders, and Wars by David C. Gompert,Hans Binnendijk,Bonny Lin Pdf

The history of wars caused by misjudgments, from Napoleon’s invasion of Russia to America’s invasion of Iraq, reveals that leaders relied on cognitive models that were seriously at odds with objective reality. Blinders, Blunders, and Wars analyzes eight historical examples of strategic blunders regarding war and peace and four examples of decisions that turned out well, and then applies those lessons to the current Sino-American case.

National Security Through a Cockeyed Lens

Steve A. Yetiv
National Security Through a Cockeyed Lens Book PDF

Author : Steve A. Yetiv
Publisher : JHU Press
Page : 167 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2013-12
Category : POLITICAL SCIENCE
ISBN : 9781421411255

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National Security Through a Cockeyed Lens by Steve A. Yetiv Pdf

"What are key mental errors that can undermine good decision making? Drawing on four decades of psychological, historical, and political science research on cognitive biases, this book illuminates key pitfalls in how we and our leaders make decisions. Itshows in five case studies of American foreign and energy policy that such errors--a dozen different cognitive biases--have been more important in shaping and impacting U.S. national interests than we currently understand. In so doing, it also sheds light on U.S. foreign policy toward and interests in the Middle East. That story prominently features non-psychological explanations, but cognitive biases exercised by American and foreign actors also represent a slice of the story that is worth revealing. Asexamples, the book shows how the distorted cognitive lens of Al-Qaeda leaders contributed to the September 11 attacks and the ongoing conflict with America and the West; how overconfidence impacted America's decision to invade Iraq in 2003; and how shortterm thinking--a prominent cognitive bias--hurts America's ability to develop a comprehensive energy policy, making the Middle East more important to the United States and enhancing its proclivity to be involved in the region. The book is aimed chiefly at students and the lay public, though academics may benefit from it"--

Waging War, Planning Peace

Aaron Rapport
Waging War Planning Peace Book PDF

Author : Aaron Rapport
Publisher : Cornell University Press
Page : 281 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 2015-03-19
Category : History
ISBN : 9780801455643

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Waging War, Planning Peace by Aaron Rapport Pdf

As the U.S. experience in Iraq following the 2003 invasion made abundantly clear, failure to properly plan for risks associated with postconflict stabilization and reconstruction can have a devastating impact on the overall success of a military mission. In Waging War, Planning Peace, Aaron Rapport investigates how U.S. presidents and their senior advisers have managed vital noncombat activities while the nation is in the midst of fighting or preparing to fight major wars. He argues that research from psychology—specifically, construal level theory—can help explain how individuals reason about the costs of postconflict noncombat operations that they perceive as lying in the distant future. In addition to preparations for "Phase IV" in the lead-up to the Iraq War, Rapport looks at the occupation of Germany after World War II, the planned occupation of North Korea in 1950, and noncombat operations in Vietnam in 1964 and 1965. Applying his insights to these cases, he finds that civilian and military planners tend to think about near-term tasks in concrete terms, seriously assessing the feasibility of the means they plan to employ to secure valued ends. For tasks they perceive as further removed in time, they tend to focus more on the desirability of the overarching goals they are pursuing rather than the potential costs, risks, and challenges associated with the means necessary to achieve these goals. Construal level theory, Rapport contends, provides a coherent explanation of how a strategic disconnect can occur. It can also show postwar planners how to avoid such perilous missteps.

Perfectly Confident

Don A. Moore
Perfectly Confident Book PDF

Author : Don A. Moore
Publisher : HarperCollins
Page : 272 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2020-05-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780062887771

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Perfectly Confident by Don A. Moore Pdf

An expert on the psychology of decision making at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business helps readers calibrate their confidence, arguing that some confidence is good, but overconfidence can hinder growth. A surge of confidence can feel fantastic—offering a rush of energy, even a dazzling vision of the future. It can give us courage and bolster our determination when facing adversity. But if that self-assurance leads us to pursue impossible goals, it can waste time, money, and energy. Self-help books and motivational speakers tell us that the more confident we are, the better. But this way of thinking can lead to enormous trouble. Decades of research demonstrates that we often have an over-inflated sense of self and are rarely as good as we believe. Perfectly Confident is the first book to bring together the best psychological and economic studies to explain exactly what confidence is, when it can be helpful, and when it can be destructive in our lives. Confidence is an attitude that takes into account both personal feelings and the facts. Don Moore identifies the ways confidence behaves in real life and raises thought-provoking questions. How optimistic should you be about an uncertain future? What justifies your confidence in something amorphous and subjective like your attractiveness or sense of humor? Moore reminds us that the key to success is to avoid being both over- and under-confident. In this essential guide, he shows how to become perfectly confident—how to strive for and maintain the well-calibrated, adaptive confidence that can elevate all areas of our lives.

A Savage War

Williamson Murray,Wayne Hsieh
A Savage War Book PDF

Author : Williamson Murray,Wayne Hsieh
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 616 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2018-05-22
Category : History
ISBN : 9781400889372

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A Savage War by Williamson Murray,Wayne Hsieh Pdf

How the Civil War changed the face of war The Civil War represented a momentous change in the character of war. It combined the projection of military might across a continent on a scale never before seen with an unprecedented mass mobilization of peoples. Yet despite the revolutionizing aspects of the Civil War, its leaders faced the same uncertainties and vagaries of chance that have vexed combatants since the days of Thucydides and the Peloponnesian War. A Savage War sheds critical new light on this defining chapter in military history. In a masterful narrative that propels readers from the first shots fired at Fort Sumter to the surrender of Robert E. Lee's army at Appomattox, Williamson Murray and Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh bring every aspect of the battlefield vividly to life. They show how this new way of waging war was made possible by the powerful historical forces unleashed by the Industrial Revolution and the French Revolution, yet how the war was far from being simply a story of the triumph of superior machines. Despite the Union’s material superiority, a Union victory remained in doubt for most of the war. Murray and Hsieh paint indelible portraits of Abraham Lincoln, Ulysses S. Grant, William Tecumseh Sherman, and other major figures whose leadership, judgment, and personal character played such decisive roles in the fate of a nation. They also examine how the Army of the Potomac, the Army of Northern Virginia, and the other major armies developed entirely different cultures that influenced the war’s outcome. A military history of breathtaking sweep and scope, A Savage War reveals how the Civil War ushered in the age of modern warfare.

Indianomix

Vivek Dehejia,Rupa Subramanya
Indianomix Book PDF

Author : Vivek Dehejia,Rupa Subramanya
Publisher : Random House India
Page : 252 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2015-03-06
Category : Literary Collections
ISBN : 9788184003666

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Indianomix by Vivek Dehejia,Rupa Subramanya Pdf

A quirky look at India using popular economics Why does the stock exchange dip during a lunar eclipse? Why don’t cars with safety features lead to fewer injuries? Why did Nehru ignore the Chinese threat in the lead-up to the 1962 war? Why is it that a stranger might risk his life to save yours on one day, and a street full of passers-by might casually watch you bleed to death on another? Why did pollsters wrongly predict a BJP victory in 2004, and what was the real reason for their defeat? And why is India’s Independence Day not, in fact, on the day on which it’s celebrated? In pithy, sparkling, bite-sized chapters, economists Vivek Dehejia and Rupa Subramanya tackle these seeming mysteries and unearth the real reasons why ‘we are like this only’. The answers are entertaining and surprising at every turn, and reveal a picture of modern India as never seen before.

God is Watching You

Dominic Johnson (Professor of Biopolitics)
God is Watching You Book PDF

Author : Dominic Johnson (Professor of Biopolitics)
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
Page : 305 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2016
Category : Religion
ISBN : 9780199895632

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God is Watching You by Dominic Johnson (Professor of Biopolitics) Pdf

The willingness to believe in some kind of payback or karma remains nearly universal. Retribution awaits those who commit bad deeds; rewards await those who do good. Johnson explores how this belief has developed over time, and how it has shaped the course of human evolution.

Reflections on War

Thean Potgieter,Ian Liebenberg
Reflections on War Book PDF

Author : Thean Potgieter,Ian Liebenberg
Publisher : AFRICAN SUN MeDIA
Page : 298 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2012-10-01
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781920338848

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Reflections on War by Thean Potgieter,Ian Liebenberg Pdf

Reflections on War is a comprehensive and objective investigation into the problems of war. The book explores the crucial link between theory, strategy and objectives in war, taking all the evidence and theory into account, and should be of interest to military practitioners, specialists in defence studies, and others interested in military history. Also notable about the work is its ability to draw insights together from international legal theory, management sciences, history, sociology and the political economy of war ? showing due respect for the moral complexities involved in waging war.

The Handbook of Evolutionary Psychology, Volume 2

David M. Buss
The Handbook of Evolutionary Psychology Volume 2 Book PDF

Author : David M. Buss
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 640 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2015-09-29
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9781118755853

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The Handbook of Evolutionary Psychology, Volume 2 by David M. Buss Pdf

A complete exploration of the real-world applications and implications of evolutionary psychology The exciting and sometimes controversial science of evolutionary psychology is becoming increasingly relevant to more fields of study than ever before. The Handbook of Evolutionary Psychology, Volume 2, Integrations provides students and researchers with new insight into how EP draws from, and is applied in, fields as diverse as economics, anthropology, neuroscience, genetics, and political science, among others. In this thorough revision and expansion of the groundbreaking handbook, luminaries in the field provide an in-depth exploration of the foundations of evolutionary psychology as they relate to public policy, consumer behavior, organizational leadership, and legal issues. Evolutionary psychology seeks to explain the reasons behind friendship, leadership, warfare, morality, religion, and culture — in short, what it means to be human. This enlightening text provides a foundational knowledgebase in EP, along with expert insights and the most up-to-date coverage of recent theories and findings. Explore the vast and expanding applications of evolutionary psychology Discover the psychology of human survival, mating parenting, cooperation and conflict, culture, and more Identify how evolutionary psychology is interwoven with other academic subjects and traditional psychological disciplines Discuss future applications of the conceptual tools of evolutionary psychology As the established standard in the field, The Handbook of Evolutionary Psychology, Volume 2 is the definitive guide for every psychologist and student to understand the latest and most exciting applications of evolutionary psychology.

How Confidence Works

Ian Robertson
How Confidence Works Book PDF

Author : Ian Robertson
Publisher : Random House
Page : 320 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2021-06-03
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9781473579750

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How Confidence Works by Ian Robertson Pdf

'Brilliant ... it will change how you think about confidence.' Johann Hari 'Important for everyone but crucial for women.' Mary Robinson 'Interesting and important.' Steven Pinker __________ Why do boys instinctively bullshit more than girls? How do economic recessions shape a generation's confidence? Can we have too much confidence and, if so, what are the consequences? Imagine we could discover something that could make us richer, healthier, longer-living, smarter, kinder, happier, more motivated and more innovative. Ridiculous, you might say... What is this elixir? Confidence. If you have it, it can empower you to reach heights you never thought possible. But if you don't, it can have a devastating effect on your future. Confidence lies at the core of what makes things happen. Exploring the science and neuroscience behind confidence that has emerged over the last decade, clinical psychologist and neuroscientist Professor Ian Robertson tells us how confidence plays out in our minds, our brains and indeed our bodies. He explains where it comes from and how it spreads - with extraordinary economic and political consequences. And why it's not necessarily something you are born with, but something that can be learned.

The Jossey-Bass Reader on Educational Leadership

Margaret Grogan
The Jossey Bass Reader on Educational Leadership Book PDF

Author : Margaret Grogan
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 560 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2013-04-29
Category : Education
ISBN : 9781118621509

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The Jossey-Bass Reader on Educational Leadership by Margaret Grogan Pdf

The newest edition of the bestselling book on educational leadership This expanded and thoroughly updated edition of the popular anthology contains the articles, book excerpts, and seminal reports that define and drive the field of educational leadership today. Filled with critical insights from bestselling authors, education research, and expert practitioners, this comprehensive volume features six primary areas of concern: The Principles of Leadership; Moral and Trustworthy Leadership; Culture and Change; Leadership for Learning; Diversity and Leadership; The Future of Leadership. Offers a practical guide for timeless and current thinking on educational leadership Includes works by Peter Senge and Tom Sergiovanni From Jossey-Bass publishers, a noted leader in the fields of education and leadership This important resource includes relevant and up-to-date articles for leaders today on gender, diversity, global perspectives, standards/testing, e-learning/technology, and community organizing.