Panel Nowcasting For Countries Whose Quarterly Gdps Are Unavailable

Author : Omer Faruk Akbal,Mr. Seung M Choi,Mr. Futoshi Narita,Jiaxiong Yao
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 36 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2023-08-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400245053

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Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable by Omer Faruk Akbal,Mr. Seung M Choi,Mr. Futoshi Narita,Jiaxiong Yao Pdf

Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.

Author : Mr.Philip Liu,Mr.Troy Matheson,Rafael Romeu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2011-04-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455254293

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Real-time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies by Mr.Philip Liu,Mr.Troy Matheson,Rafael Romeu Pdf

Macroeconomic policy decisions in real-time are based the assessment of current and future economic conditions. These assessments are made difficult by the presence of incomplete and noisy data. The problem is more acute for emerging market economies, where most economic data are released infrequently with a (sometimes substantial) lag. This paper evaluates "nowcasts" and forecasts of real GDP growth using five alternative models for ten Latin American countries. The results indicate that the flow of monthly data helps to improve forecast accuracy, and the dynamic factor model consistently produces more accurate nowcasts and forecasts relative to other model specifications, across most of the countries we consider.

Author : Laurent Ferrara,Ignacio Hernando,Daniela Marconi
Publisher : Springer
Page : 298 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2018-06-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319790756

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International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by Laurent Ferrara,Ignacio Hernando,Daniela Marconi Pdf

This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.

Author : Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 114 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 1996
Category : Agricultural estimating and reporting
ISBN : 9264148086

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The Agricultural Outlook by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Pdf

The Agricultural Outlook provides a five-year assessment of trends and prospects in the major agricultural commodity markets

Author : United Nations
Publisher : United Nations
Page : 134 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2019-12-18
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9789210045179

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Guidelines on Producing Leading, Composite and Sentiment Indicators by United Nations Pdf

Leading, composite and sentiment indicators offer a powerful way of communication of statistical information and reaching out to users of statistics. The indicators can provide relevant and timely information on aspects of the economy and the social society that are not covered by other statistics. They can also provide information on complex phenomena in simple and condensed form, for instance on the current or expected economic development or on the well-being or sense of happiness of the citizens. These Guidelines provide guidance to statistical offices on their possible roles in developing and producing leading, composite and sentiment indicators and give practical and operational guidance to statistical offices that produce or consider producing these indicators. Existing examples of good practice are also referenced.

Author : Edouard Challe
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 361 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2023-09-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780262549295

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Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Policies by Edouard Challe Pdf

The basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies, applied to concrete issues and presented within an integrated New Keynesian framework. This textbook presents the basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies and applies them to contemporary issues. It employs a unified New Keynesian framework for understanding business cycles, major crises, and macroeconomic policies, introducing students to the approach most often used in academic macroeconomic analysis and by central banks and international institutions. The book addresses such topics as how recessions and crises spread; what instruments central banks and governments have to stimulate activity when private demand is weak; and what “unconventional” macroeconomic policies might work when conventional monetary policy loses its effectiveness (as has happened in many countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession.). The text introduces the foundations of modern business cycle theory through the notions of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and then applies the theory to the study of regular business-cycle fluctuations in output, inflation, and employment. It considers conventional monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing the business cycle, and examines unconventional macroeconomic policies, including forward guidance and quantitative easing, in situations of “liquidity trap”—deep crises in which conventional policies are either ineffective or have very different effects than in normal time. This book is the first to use the New Keynesian framework at the advanced undergraduate level, connecting undergraduate learning not only with the more advanced tools taught at the graduate level but also with the large body of policy-oriented research in academic journals. End-of-chapter problems help students master the materials presented.

Author : Alberto Alesina,Francesco Giavazzi
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 624 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2010-04-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226012858

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Europe and the Euro by Alberto Alesina,Francesco Giavazzi Pdf

It is rare for countries to give up their currencies and thus their ability to influence such critical aspects of their economies as interest and exchange rates. Yet ten years ago a number of European countries did exactly that when they adopted the euro. Despite some dissent, there were a number of arguments in favor of this policy change: it would facilitate exchange of goods, money, and people by decreasing costs; it would increase trade; and it would enhance efficiency and competitiveness at the international level. A decade is an ideal time frame over which to evaluate the success of the euro and whether it has lived up to expectations. To that aim, Europe and the Euro looks at a number of important issues, including the effects of the euro on reform of goods and labor markets; its influence on business cycles and trade among members; and whether the single currency has induced convergence or divergence in the economic performance of member countries. While adoption of the euro may not have met the expectations of its most optimistic proponents, the benefits have been many, and there is reason to believe that the euro is robust enough to survive recent economic shocks. This volume is an essential reference on the first ten years of the euro and the workings of a monetary union.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 31 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2020-07-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513550602

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Zimbabwe by International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept. Pdf

As part of a five-year project of the Enhanced Data Dissemination Initiative (EDDI) 2 Government Finance Statistics (GFS) Module on improving GFS and public-sector debt statistics in selected African countries, a mission was conducted in Harare, Zimbabwe during April 15–26, 2019. This mission was a follow up on a 2018 GFS technical assistance (TA) mission under the EDDI 2. The mission’s objective was to review progress made and assisting with outstanding statistical issues that are important for sound policymaking in Zimbabwe. Some of the key outstanding issues raised by the IMF African Department prior to the mission were, the classification of government subsidies to state owned enterprises (SOEs); the identification of extrabudgetary units (EBUs) and classification of their operations; and the correct classification of other government transactions in line with a Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM) 2014 framework.

Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 402 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2009-12-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781135179779

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Inflation Expectations by Peter J. N. Sinclair Pdf

Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Author : Claudia Foroni,Massimiliano Marcellino,Christian Schumacher
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2011
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 386558781X

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U-MIDAS by Claudia Foroni,Massimiliano Marcellino,Christian Schumacher Pdf

Author : Mr.Futoshi Narita,Rujun Yin
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 51 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2018-12-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484390177

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In Search of Information: Use of Google Trends’ Data to Narrow Information Gaps for Low-income Developing Countries by Mr.Futoshi Narita,Rujun Yin Pdf

Timely data availability is a long-standing challenge in policy-making and analysis for low-income developing countries. This paper explores the use of Google Trends’ data to narrow such information gaps and finds that online search frequencies about a country significantly correlate with macroeconomic variables (e.g., real GDP, inflation, capital flows), conditional on other covariates. The correlation with real GDP is stronger than that of nighttime lights, whereas the opposite is found for emerging market economies. The search frequencies also improve out-of-sample forecasting performance albeit slightly, demonstrating their potential to facilitate timely assessments of economic conditions in low-income developing countries.

Author : Terence J. Baker,Economic and Social Research Institute
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 442 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Industries
ISBN : NWU:35556038945887

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Quarterly Economic Commentary by Terence J. Baker,Economic and Social Research Institute Pdf

Author : Maximo Camacho,Gabriel Perez-Quiros,Pilar Poncela
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 74 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2013-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1601987420

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Short-Term Forecasting for Empirical Economists by Maximo Camacho,Gabriel Perez-Quiros,Pilar Poncela Pdf

Short-term Forecasting for Empirical Economists seeks to close the gap between research and applied short-term forecasting. The authors review some of the key theoretical results and empirical findings in the recent literature on short-term forecasting, and translate these findings into economically meaningful techniques to facilitate their widespread application to compute short-term forecasts in economics, and to monitor the ongoing business cycle developments in real time.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 11 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2023-12-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400261312

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Botswana by International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept. Pdf

A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted by IMF’s Regional Technical Assistance Center for Southern Africa (AFS) during November 2023 to assist Statistics Botswana (SB) in reviewing and finalizing the questionnaires to be used in the Census of Economic Establishments (CEE), sample design and IT processing system in preparation for the rebasing of the national accounts. The draft CEE questionnaires finalized during the previous mission in March 2023, have been tested. The IT system specifications were reviewed, and several improvements were incorporated. The mission and team commenced development of the data collection and data processing manuals. SB are planning to use the tax list to identify the sample frame for this rebase. The deflator issues raised by the IMF country team were discussed.

Author : Jin-Kyu Jung,Manasa Patnam,Anna Ter-Martirosyan
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2018-11-01
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781484380635

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An Algorithmic Crystal Ball: Forecasts-based on Machine Learning by Jin-Kyu Jung,Manasa Patnam,Anna Ter-Martirosyan Pdf

Forecasting macroeconomic variables is key to developing a view on a country's economic outlook. Most traditional forecasting models rely on fitting data to a pre-specified relationship between input and output variables, thereby assuming a specific functional and stochastic process underlying that process. We pursue a new approach to forecasting by employing a number of machine learning algorithms, a method that is data driven, and imposing limited restrictions on the nature of the true relationship between input and output variables. We apply the Elastic Net, SuperLearner, and Recurring Neural Network algorithms on macro data of seven, broadly representative, advanced and emerging economies and find that these algorithms can outperform traditional statistical models, thereby offering a relevant addition to the field of economic forecasting.