Peak Oil Climate Change And The Limits To China S Economic Growth
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Peak Oil, Climate Change, and the Limits to China’s Economic Growth by Minqi Li Pdf
This book studies the limits imposed by the depletion of fossil fuels and the requirements of climate stabilization on economic growth with a focus on China. The book intends to examine the potentials of various energy resources, including oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, wind, solar, and other renewables, as well as energy efficiency. Unlike many other books on the subject, this book intends to argue that, despite the large potentials of renewable energies and energy efficiency, economic growth eventually will have to be brought to an end as China and the world undertake the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energies. China has overtaken the US to become the world’s largest energy consumer and greenhouse gas emitter. Their energy consumption is dominated by coal and China now accounts for one quarter of the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions. Moreover, China is set to become the world’s largest oil importer in the next decade. This book will consider energy development in the broader context of economic and social changes, especially the historical dynamics of the capitalist world system. Historical lessons of capitalism and socialism will be discussed. The book will evaluate the implications of ecological limits to growth on the economic system and argue that the existing capitalist system is fundamentally incompatible with ecological sustainability.
China's Dilemma - Economic Growth, the Environment and Climate Change examines the challenges China will have to confront in order to maintain rapid growth while coping with the global financial turbulence, some rising socially destabilising tensions such as income inequality, an over-exploited environment and the long-term pressures of global warming. China's Dilemma discusses key questions that will have an impact on China's growth path and offers some in-depth analyses as to how China could confront these challenges. The authors address the effect of the global credit crunch and financial shocks on China's economic growth; China's contribution to greenhouse gas emissions and emissions reduction schemes; the environmental consequences of foreign direct investment in China; the relationship between air pollution and mortality; the effect of climate change on agricultural output; the coal industry's compliance with tougher regulations; and the constraints water shortages may impose on China's economy. It also emphasises the importance of managing the rising demand for energy to moderate oil price increases and placating domestic and international concerns about global warming. In the thirty years since China started on the path of reform, it has emerged as one of the largest and most dynamic economies in the world. This carries with it the responsibility to balance the requirements of key industries that are driving its development with the need to ensure that its growth is both equitable and sustainable. China's Dilemma highlights key lessons learned from the past thirty years of reform in order to pave the way for balanced and sustained growth in the future.
The Chinese Oil Industry by Lianyong Feng,Yan Hu,Charles A. S. Hall,Jianliang Wang Pdf
The Chinese Oil Industry: History and Future presents a wealth of tables and figures with new data on Chinese fossil fuel production and consumption, together with a peak oil model to forecast future trends in energy supply and demand. Energy experts in China and the United States provide you with a unique overview of the entire Chinese oil industry. The authors discuss trends in production and consumption of global significance through to the middle of the 21st century, including the energy returned on energy invested (EROI) for China’s oil and gas. The role of oil in the industrialization of China is described as are four phases in the history of the Chinese oil industry. Detailed coverage of resources and exploration, pipeline development, refining and marketing, petroleum and natural gas pricing policies, and international cooperation is followed by consideration of conservation, renewable energy, and environmental impact. The authors also address the importance of coal and the probable future of coal production. - Offers a comprehensive view of the Chinese oil industry - Presents new and previously unpublished data - Covers history and future trends in production and consumption - Introduces a new peak oil model for China - Discusses EROI trend of oil and natural gas and its consequences for the Chinese economy - Written from an objective viewpoint by leading energy experts
The World After Cheap Oil by Rauli Partanen,Harri Paloheimo,Heikki Waris Pdf
Substantial evidence suggests that we are currently living at the peak of oil production with few prospects for cheap oil ever returning. Yet the media, politicians and regular people have hardly started to talk about what this means. Oil literally runs our societies from transportation to food production to economic activity. Without oil, everything stops. There are powerful arguments that if we fail to increase oil production, we will also fail to grow our economy as a whole. For oil importing western nations the news is bleak; higher oil prices seem to put a glass ceiling on their economic growth, making current debt problems worse no matter what monetary and economic policies we might choose. The World After Cheap Oil offers a thorough package of information about oil; its uses and its role in our society’s important sectors. It presents the most prominent substitutes and alternatives, and their limits and promises. It also delves deep into the many risks, problems and mechanisms that can make the world after cheap oil a much more unstable place for nations and humanity as a whole. The book also explains why there has been so little public debate on the subject, and what the future might look like after oil production starts its final, terminal decline.
A major new analysis and action plan to deal with two linked challenges to human ingenuity and human survival - the crisis of climate change and the world economic crash. 'Gilding says that our current economic model is driving the system over a cliff. We are already living beyond the planet's capacity to support us and a crisis is no longer avoidable' The Times 'If you're planning to stick around for the 21st century, this might be a useful book to consult' Bill McKibben, author of Eaarth and The End of Nature It's time to stop just worrying about climate change, says Paul Gilding. Instead we need to brace for impact, because global crisis is no longer avoidable. The 'Great Disruption' started in 2008, with spiking food and oil prices and dramatic ecological change like the melting polar icecap. It is not simply about fossil fuels and carbon footprints. We have come to the end of Economic Growth, Version 1.0, a world economy based on consumption and waste, where we lived beyond the means of our planet's ecosystems and resources. The Great Disruption offers a stark and unflinching look at the challenge humanity faces - yet also a deeply optimistic message. The coming decades will see loss, suffering and conflict as our planetary overdraft is paid. However, they will also bring out the best humanity can offer: compassion, innovation, resilience and adaptability. Gilding tells us how to fight, and win, what he calls 'the One Degree War' to prevent catastrophic warming of the earth, and how to start today. The crisis we are in represents a rare chance to replace our addiction to growth with an ethic of sustainability, and it's already happening. It's also an unmatched business opportunity: old industries will collapse while new companies literally reshape our economy. In the aftermath of the Great Disruption, we will measure 'growth' in a new way. It will mean not quantity of stuff, but quality, and happiness, of life. And, yes, there is life after shopping. The Great Disruption is an invigorating and well-informed polemic by an advocate for sustainability and climate change who has dedicated his life to campaigning for a balanced use of Earth's limited resources. It is essential reading.
Global Trends 2040 by National Intelligence Council Pdf
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
China's Economic Rise by Congressional Research Service Pdf
Prior to the initiation of economic reforms and trade liberalization 36 years ago, China maintained policies that kept the economy very poor, stagnant, centrally-controlled, vastly inefficient, and relatively isolated from the global economy. Since opening up to foreign trade and investment and implementing free market reforms in 1979, China has been among the world's fastest-growing economies, with real annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging nearly 10% through 2016. In recent years, China has emerged as a major global economic power. It is now the world's largest economy (on a purchasing power parity basis), manufacturer, merchandise trader, and holder of foreign exchange reserves.The global economic crisis that began in 2008 greatly affected China's economy. China's exports, imports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows declined, GDP growth slowed, and millions of Chinese workers reportedly lost their jobs. The Chinese government responded by implementing a $586 billion economic stimulus package and loosening monetary policies to increase bank lending. Such policies enabled China to effectively weather the effects of the sharp global fall in demand for Chinese products, but may have contributed to overcapacity in several industries and increased debt by Chinese firms and local government. China's economy has slowed in recent years. Real GDP growth has slowed in each of the past six years, dropping from 10.6% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2016, and is projected to slow to 5.7% by 2022.The Chinese government has attempted to steer the economy to a "new normal" of slower, but more stable and sustainable, economic growth. Yet, concerns have deepened in recent years over the health of the Chinese economy. On August 11, 2015, the Chinese government announced that the daily reference rate of the renminbi (RMB) would become more "market-oriented." Over the next three days, the RMB depreciated against the dollar and led to charges that China's goal was to boost exports to help stimulate the economy (which some suspect is in worse shape than indicated by official Chinese economic statistics). Concerns over the state of the Chinese economy appear to have often contributed to volatility in global stock indexes in recent years.The ability of China to maintain a rapidly growing economy in the long run will likely depend largely on the ability of the Chinese government to implement comprehensive economic reforms that more quickly hasten China's transition to a free market economy; rebalance the Chinese economy by making consumer demand, rather than exporting and fixed investment, the main engine of economic growth; boost productivity and innovation; address growing income disparities; and enhance environmental protection. The Chinese government has acknowledged that its current economic growth model needs to be altered and has announced several initiatives to address various economic challenges. In November 2013, the Communist Party of China held the Third Plenum of its 18th Party Congress, which outlined a number of broad policy reforms to boost competition and economic efficiency. For example, the communique stated that the market would now play a "decisive" role in allocating resources in the economy. At the same time, however, the communique emphasized the continued important role of the state sector in China's economy. In addition, many foreign firms have complained that the business climate in China has worsened in recent years. Thus, it remains unclear how committed the Chinese government is to implementing new comprehensive economic reforms.China's economic rise has significant implications for the United States and hence is of major interest to Congress. This report provides background on China's economic rise; describes its current economic structure; identifies the challenges China faces to maintain economic growth; and discusses the challenges, opportunities, and implications of China's economic rise.
Climate Change, Policy and Security by Donald Wallace,Daniel Silander Pdf
This book examines the multiple strategies proposed by the international community for addressing global climate change (GCC) from both human and state-security perspectives. It examines what is needed from major states working within the UN framework to engage with the multiple dimensions of a strategy that addresses GCC and its impacts, where such engagement promotes both human and state security. Two broad frameworks for approaching these issues provide the basis of discussion for the individual chapters, which discuss the strategies being undertaken by major state powers (the US, the EU, China, India, Japan, and Russia). The first framework considers the multiple strategies, mitigation, adaptation, and capacity-building required of the international community to address the effects of GCC. The second framework considers the differentiation of GCC policies in terms of security and how the efficacy of these strategies could be impacted by whether priority is given to state security over human security concerns. This book will be of much interest to students of human security, climate change, foreign policy, and International Relations.
Author : Scott L. Montgomery Publisher : University of Chicago Press Page : 366 pages File Size : 47,6 Mb Release : 2010-07-15 Category : Science ISBN : 9780226535012
Thirty years ago, our global energy landscape did not look remarkably different from what it does today. Three or four decades from now, it certainly will: dwindling oil reserves will clash with skyrocketing demand, as developing nations around the world lead their citizens into the modern energy economy, and all the while, the grave threat of catastrophic climate change looms ever larger. Energy worries are at an all-time high—just how will we power our future? With The Powers That Be, Scott L. Montgomery cuts through the hype, alarmism, and confusion to give us a straightforward, informed account of where we are now, and a map of where we’re going. Starting with the inescapable fact of our current dependence on fossil fuels—which supply 80% of all our energy needs today—Montgomery clearly and carefully lays out the many alternative energy options available, ranging from the familiar, like water and solar, to such nascent but promising sources as hydrogen and geothermal power. What is crucial, Montgomery explains, is understanding that our future will depend not on some single, wondrous breakthrough; instead, we should focus on developing a more diverse, adaptable energy future, one that draws on a variety of sources—and is thus less vulnerable to disruption or failure. An admirably evenhanded and always realistic guide, Montgomery enables readers to understand the implications of energy funding, research, and politics at a global scale. At the same time, he doesn’t neglect the ultimate connection between those decisions and the average citizen flipping a light switch or sliding behind the wheel of a car, making The Powers That Be indispensible for our ever-more energy conscious age.
Sustainability and the Political Economy of Welfare by Max Koch,Oksana Mont Pdf
Welfare is commonly conceptualized in socio-economic terms of equity, highlighting distributive issues within growing economies. While GDP, income growth and rising material standards of living are normally not questioned as priorities in welfare theories and policy making, there is growing evidence that Western welfare standards are not generalizable to the rest of the planet if environmental concerns, such as resource depletion or climate change, are considered. Sustainability and the Political Economy of Welfare raises the issue of what is required to make welfare societies ecologically sustainable. Consisting of three parts, this book regards the current financial, economic and political crisis in welfare state institutions and addresses methodological, theoretical and wider conceptual issues in integrating sustainability. Furthermore, this text is concerned with the main institutional obstacles to the achievement of sustainable welfare and wellbeing, and how these may feasibly be overcome. How can researchers assist policymakers in promoting synergy between economic, social and environmental policies conducive to globally sustainable welfare systems? Co-authored by a variety of cross-disciplinary contributors, a diversity of research perspectives and methods is reflected in a unique mixture of conceptual chapters, historical analysis of different societal sectors, and case studies of several EU countries, China and the US. This book is well suited for those who are interested in and study welfare, ecological economics and political economy.
100 Years of World Wars and Post-War Regional Collaboration by Kumiko Haba,Alfredo Canavero,Satoshi Mizobata Pdf
This book is about the 100 years of World Wars and Regional Collaboration in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, investigating and considering how to foster Good Governance and New World Order. The world is currently at the historical turning point. The twentieth century witnessed two World Wars (WWI and WWII), followed by the Cold War that dominated geopolitics. Amidst the post-war devastation, the European Community, soon succeeded by the European Union, came into being. Peaceful governance was nurtured by building economic collaboration and institutions and by establishing liberalism, democracy and the rule of law. In Asia, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) also pursued regional governance after WWII, but in East Asia, the American Divide and Rule policy is continuing until now by the influence of China, North Korea and Russia. In the contemporary world in the twenty-first century, a new nationalism, Populism and Authoritarianism are spreading. At the same time, a wave of rapid economic growth is occurring in developing countries, especially in China and India. Destabilization is spreading in East Asia, Southeast Asia, and South Asia concurrently with the search for “Democratization”. Through the two World Wars and the Cold War which originated in 100 years of the twentieth century, what types of regional institutions and governance have been developed to avoid endless wars and conflicts? In this book, it is examined, what kind of order is necessary to stabilize the regions from conflicts and wars in both Europe and Asia. The themes of the Tokyo Conferences and the Kyoto Conference by SCJ (Science Council of Japan) in December 2020, were investigated and clarified, how the countries that were caught up in global wars have considered regional coexistence in each period, and how to establish peace, stability, and prosperity by means of new institutionalizations, norms and the rule of law. The aim of the authors is to examine and discuss How to create New World Order, Regional Collaborations and Good Governance in the historical power transition period. This book can inspire many scholars and young researchers to join in discussing how to create New World Order in the twenty-first century, from the midst of the unstable situations of the global geopolitics.
Racing to the Top by William R. Thompson,Leila Zakhirova Pdf
In the international political economy of the last two millennia, there tends to be one state leading the world as the foremost producer of energy and new technology. In Racing to the Top, William R. Thompson and Leila Zakhirova argue that the US and China, like previous leading countries, rely on energy transition, or the development of alternative energy, in order to make new technology relatively inexpensive to develop and to fuel. While the US has historically held the lead, its edge in the global energy economy appears to be eroding, and as energy leadership diminishes, so does the country's position in world politics. Thompson and Zakhirova take a long view in order to show what will be necessary for a new power to emerge as the system leader, then map a path forward for energy policy. Informed by a deep knowledge of world history, political economy, and environmental technology, this book is the first complete overview of energy transitions over the past thousand years.
