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Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises by Paolo Manasse,Mr.Axel Schimmelpfennig,Nouriel Roubini Pdf
We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 percent of quota. By means of logit and binary recursive tree analysis, we identify macroeconomic variables reflecting solvency and liquidity factors that predict a debt-crisis episode one year in advance. The logit model predicts 74 percent of all crises entries while sending few false alarms, and the recursive tree 89 percent while sending more false alarms.
Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises by Paolo Manasse Pdf
We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard amp; Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 percent of quota. By means of logit and binary recursive tree analysis, we identify macroeconomic variables reflecting solvency and liquidity factors that predict a debt-crisis episode one year in advance. The logit model predicts 74 percent of all crises entries while sending few false alarms, and the recursive tree 89 percent while sending more false alarms.
“Rules of Thumb” for Sovereign Debt Crises by Paolo Manasse,Nouriel Roubini Pdf
This paper contains an empirical investigation of the set of economic and political conditions that are associated with a likely occurrence of a sovereign debt crisis. We use a new statistical approach (Binary Recursive Tree) that allows us to derive a collection of "rules of thumb" that help identify the typical characteristics of defaulters. We find that not all crises are equal: they differ depending on whether the government faces insolvency, illiquidity, or various macroeconomic risks. We also characterize the set of fundamentals that can be associated with a relatively "risk free" zone. This classification is important for discussing appropriate policy options to prevent crises and improve response time and prediction.
The Dynamics of Sovereign Debt Crises and Bailouts by Mr.Francisco Roch,Harald Uhlig Pdf
Motivated by the recent European debt crisis, this paper investigates the scope for a bailout guarantee in a sovereign debt crisis. Defaults may arise from negative income shocks, government impatience or a "sunspot"-coordinated buyers strike. We introduce a bailout agency, and characterize the minimal actuarially fair intervention that guarantees the no-buyers-strike fundamental equilibrium, relying on the market for residual financing. The intervention makes it cheaper for governments to borrow, inducing them borrow more, leaving default probabilities possibly rather unchanged. The maximal backstop will be pulled precisely when fundamentals worsen.
Sovereign Debt Defaults and Financing Needs by Mark Kruger,Miguel Messmacher Pdf
We construct a financial vulnerability indicator that is consistent with the theoretical literature on determinants of defaults. It is based on the amount of new foreign financing that is needed to avoid a default or an import adjustment, expressed as a proportion of the country's sources of foreign currency. As the need for new foreign financing increases, so does a country's financial vulnerability. The indicator has a higher correlation with default episodes than other indicators used in previous studies. In addition, the level at which it leads to a high probability of default is comparable across countries.
An intelligent analysis of the dangers, opportunities, and consequences of global sovereign debt Sovereign debt is growing internationally at a terrifying rate, as nations seek to prop up their collapsing economies. One only needs to look at the sovereign risk pressures faced by Greece, Spain, and Ireland to get an idea of how big this problem has become. Understanding this dilemma is now more important than ever, that's why Robert Kolb has compiled Sovereign Debt. With this book as your guide, you'll gain a better perspective on the essential issues surrounding sovereign debt and default through discussions of national defaults, systemic risk, associated costs, and much more. Historical studies are also included to provide a realistic framework of reference. Contains up-to-date research and analysis on sovereign debt from today's leading practitioners and academics Details the dangers of defaults and their associated systemic risks Explores the past, present, and future of sovereign debt The repercussions of a national default are all-encompassing as global markets are intricately interwoven in the modern world. Sovereign Debt examines what it will take to overcome the challenges of this market and how you can deal with the uncertainty surrounding it.
Author : Hippolyte W. Balima,Mr.Amadou N Sy Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 38 pages File Size : 53,5 Mb Release : 2019-01-11 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781484393413
The Impact of Bailouts on the Probability of Sovereign Debt Crises: Evidence from IMF-Supported Programs by Hippolyte W. Balima,Mr.Amadou N Sy Pdf
This paper studies the role of IMF-supported programs in mitigating the likelihood of subsequent sovereign defaults in borrowing countries. Using a panel of 106 developing countries from 1970 to 2016 and an entropy balancing methodology, we find that IMF-supported programs significantly reduce the likelihood of subsequent sovereign defaults. This finding is robust to different specifications of the entropy balancing and alternative identification strategies. Our results suggest that a country that signs a program with the IMF, typically experiences a slight improvement in its sovereign credit rating and a decrease in both government debt-to-GDP and fiscal deficit-to-GDP.
Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises by Ms.Carmen Reinhart,Mr.Kenneth Rogoff Pdf
Even after one of the most severe multi-year crises on record in the advanced economies, the received wisdom in policy circles clings to the notion that high-income countries are completely different from their emerging market counterparts. The current phase of the official policy approach is predicated on the assumption that debt sustainability can be achieved through a mix of austerity, forbearance and growth. The claim is that advanced countries do not need to resort to the standard toolkit of emerging markets, including debt restructurings and conversions, higher inflation, capital controls and other forms of financial repression. As we document, this claim is at odds with the historical track record of most advanced economies, where debt restructuring or conversions, financial Repression, and a tolerance for higher inflation, or a combination of these were an integral part of the resolution of significant past debt overhangs.
Predicting Fiscal Crises by Ms.Svetlana Cerovic,Mrs.Kerstin Gerling,Andrew Hodge,Paulo Medas Pdf
This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods. Previous literature on early warning sistems (EWS) for fiscal crises is scarce and based on small samples of advanced and emerging markets, raising doubts about the robustness of the results. Using a larger sample, our analysis shows that both nonfiscal (external and internal imbalances) and fiscal variables help predict crises among advanced and emerging economies. Our models performed well in out-of-sample forecasting and in predicting the most recent crises, a weakness of EWS in general. We also build EWS for low income countries, which had been overlooked in the literature.
Overcoming Developing Country Debt Crises by Barry Herman,José Antonio Ocampo,Shari Spiegel Pdf
The book looks at historical sovereign debt crises in developing and transition economies, and concludes that these occurrences have been economic and social catastrophes and are likely to happen again in the future due to the boom and bust nature of economic cycles, which can wreak havoc in liberalized financial environments.
Sovereign Debt by Vinod K. Aggarwal,Brigitte Granville Pdf
This work examines the ongoing debate on resolving sovereign debt defaults and alleviating the debt burden of heavily indebted poor countries. Concentrating primarily on the period from the 1982 and focusing on money owed to both the public and the private sector, the volume examines the origins of debt crises, rescheduling tactics, and efforts to create a more enduring solution to the problem of coping with debt, as well as its efficacy. Policy recommendations are put forward for dealing with the onerous problem of debt default and rescheduling.
When Sovereigns Go Bankrupt by Norbert Gaillard Pdf
The public debt crisis that Eurozone countries have experienced since 2010 has been accompanied by a resurgence of sovereign risk. Greece was obliged to restructure its debt in 2012. The credit position of even the wealthy countries is shakier than at any time since the Great Depression. Now more than ever it is essential to understand sovereign risk because the default of a country, or even its lack of credibility, is bound to jeopardize political stability and weaken the credit standing of all other economic actors. This book reviews and analyzes the different means used to forestall and protect against sovereign defaults. In light of the Eurozone’s 2010-2012 sovereign debt crisis, this book also emphasizes the roots of sovereign creditworthiness. Chapter 1 establishes a typology of sovereign defaults. A sovereign “bankruptcy” may take many forms (debt repudiation, moratorium, restructuring, etc.). Chapter 2 presents the different contractual and legal tools used to protect against sovereign defaults. Chapter 3 investigates how some investors have been able to interfere with the debtor’s economic policy by insisting that measures be taken to reduce the risk of default in the short and medium term. Such interference can be direct or may be more subtle. There is a specific focus on the conditionality imposed by the International Monetary Fund. Chapter 4 studies the various tools that investors can use to discriminate among borrowers and forecast debt crises (bond yields and spreads as well as ratings provided by Fitch, Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s, and Euromoney Country Risk). Chapter 4 also demonstrates that sovereign debtors must overcome seven types of risk in order to preserve their creditworthiness: natural disaster, geopolitical risk, institutional and political risk, economic risk, monetary and exchange rate risk, fiscal and tax-system risk, and debt-related risk.
Author : Mr.Amadou N. R. Sy Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 27 pages File Size : 46,6 Mb Release : 2003-06-01 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781451854510
Rating the Rating Agencies by Mr.Amadou N. R. Sy Pdf
In contrast to the early-warning system literature, we find that currency and debt crises are not closely linked in emerging markets. We find that after 1994, credit ratings predict debt crises but fail to anticipate currency crises. When debt crises are defined as sovereign distress-when spreads are higher than 1,000 basis points-we find that countries experience reduced capital market access and high interest rates on their external debt for typically more than two quarters. We also find that lagged ratings and ratings changes, including negative outlooks and credit watches, anticipate such debt crises.
Adjunct Professor at School of International and Public Affairs Chris Jochnick,Chris Jochnick,Fraser A. Preston,Fraser A.. Preston,Oxford University Press
Author : Adjunct Professor at School of International and Public Affairs Chris Jochnick,Chris Jochnick,Fraser A. Preston,Fraser A.. Preston,Oxford University Press Publisher : Oxford University Press on Demand Page : 353 pages File Size : 42,8 Mb Release : 2006-04-13 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 0195168003
Sovereign Debt at the Crossroads by Adjunct Professor at School of International and Public Affairs Chris Jochnick,Chris Jochnick,Fraser A. Preston,Fraser A.. Preston,Oxford University Press Pdf
This is a comprehensive overview of the problems associated with Third World debt and describes new and practical approaches to overcoming them. As contributions come from leading thinkers across a range of disciplines, the text offers a timely guide for understanding and influencing the debt debate.
Global Waves of Debt by M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara Pdf
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
