Prediction Markets

Author : Leighton Vaughan Williams
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 289 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2011-06-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781136715693

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Prediction Markets by Leighton Vaughan Williams Pdf

How does one effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ‘wisdom of the crowd’? Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies, for example, in providing improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services. The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza to the spread of infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like opinion surveys, group deliberations, panels of experts and focus groups. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes. This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should be of interest to anyone looking at monetary economics, economic forecasting and microeconomics.

Author : Stefan Luckner,Jan Schröder,Christian Slamka,Bernd Skiera,Martin Spann,Christof Weinhardt,Andreas Geyer-Schulz,Markus Franke
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 141 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2011-11-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783834970855

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Prediction Markets by Stefan Luckner,Jan Schröder,Christian Slamka,Bernd Skiera,Martin Spann,Christof Weinhardt,Andreas Geyer-Schulz,Markus Franke Pdf

Accurate predictions are essential in many areas such as corporate decision making, weather forecasting and technology forecasting. Prediction markets help to aggregate information and gain a better understanding of the future by leveraging the wisdom of the crowds. Trading prices in prediction markets thus reflect the traders’ aggregated expectations on the outcome of uncertain future events and can be used to predict the likelihood of these events. This book demonstrates that markets are accurate predictors. Results from several empirical studies reported in this work show the importance of designing such markets properly in order to derive valuable predictions. Therefore, the findings are valuable for designing future prediction markets.

Author : Leighton Vaughan Williams
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 318 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2011-06-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781136715686

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Prediction Markets by Leighton Vaughan Williams Pdf

How does one effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ‘wisdom of the crowd’? Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies, for example, in providing improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services. The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza to the spread of infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like opinion surveys, group deliberations, panels of experts and focus groups. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes. This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should be of interest to anyone looking at monetary economics, economic forecasting and microeconomics.

Author : Jan Schröder
Publisher : KIT Scientific Publishing
Page : 180 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2009
Category : Business
ISBN : 9783866443440

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Manipulations in Prediction Markets by Jan Schröder Pdf

Fraud and manipulation in prediction markets are systematic results of incentive incompatibility, which, if present, have to be detected and balanced. ""Manipulations in Prediction Markets"" gives a critical insight into manipulations that are most likely to occur in prediction markets. In a general approach the book discusses the issue of incentives in markets and the breakdown of the incentive system. On this basis a new way of detecting irregular trading behaviour is introduced.

Author : Donald N. Thompson
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
Page : 274 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2012-05-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781422183199

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Oracles by Donald N. Thompson Pdf

Why Prediction Markets Are Good for Business From selecting the lead actress in a Broadway musical, to predicting a crucial delay in the delivery of Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner months before the CEO knew about it, to accurately forecasting US presidential elections—prediction markets have realized some amazing successes by aggregating the wisdom of crowds. Until now, the potential for this unique approach has remained merely an interesting curiosity. But a handful of innovative organizations—GE, Google, Motorola, Microsoft, Eli Lily, even the CIA—has successfully tapped employee insights to change how business gets done. In Oracles, Don Thompson explains how these and other firms use prediction markets to make better decisions, describing what could be the origins of a social revolution. Thompson shows how prediction markets can: • draw on the hidden knowledge of every employee • tap the “intellectual bandwidth” of retired employees • replace surveys • substitute for endless meetings By showing successes and failures of real organizations, and identifying the common roadblocks they’ve overcome, Oracles offers a guide to begin testing expertise against the collective wisdom of employees and the market—all to the benefit of their bottom line.

Author : Donald N. Thompson
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
Page : 274 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2012
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781422183175

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Oracles by Donald N. Thompson Pdf

In this volume, Don Thompson explains how firms use prediction markets to make better decisions, describing what could be the origins of a social revolution -- Publisher description.

Author : James P. O'Shaughnessy
Publisher : Penguin
Page : 272 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2006-03-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781101218389

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Predicting the Markets of Tomorrow by James P. O'Shaughnessy Pdf

A unique and timely new wealth-building strategy from a legendary investment guru In his national bestsellers How to Retire Rich and What Works on Wall Street, portfolio manager extraordinaire James P. O’Shaughnessy offered investors practical advice based on rigorous quantitative analysis—advice that has consistently beaten the market. But in a recent analysis of market data, O’Shaughnessy uncovered some astonishing trends not discussed in his previous books. The Markets of Tomorrow explains O’Shaughnessy’s new research and tells ordinary investors what they must do now to revamp their portfolios. According to O’Shaughnessy, the year 2000 marked the end of a twenty-year cycle that was dominated by the stocks of larger, fastergrowing companies like those in the S&P 500. In the new cycle, the stocks of small and midsize companies are the ones that will outperform the market, along with large company value stocks and intermediate term bonds. O’Shaughnessy describes the number crunching behind his analysis and then shows individual investors exactly how to select the right mix of investments and pick top-performing small and midcap stocks. The Markets of Tomorrow is a loud and clear call to action for every investor who doesn’t want to be left behind.

Author : Edward Yardeni
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2018-02-12
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1948025000

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Predicting the Markets by Edward Yardeni Pdf

I started my career on Wall Street in 1978. For the past 40 years on the Street, I have been thinking and writing about the economy and financial markets as both an economist and an investment strategist. While I have a solid academic background to be a Wall Street prognosticator, I learned a great deal on the job. In this book, I share my professional insights into predicting the economy and financial markets.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2004
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1243078513

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Prediction Markets by Anonim Pdf

Author : Michael Abramowicz
Publisher : Yale University Press
Page : 364 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2008-10-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780300144956

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Predictocracy by Michael Abramowicz Pdf

Predicting the future is serious business for virtually all public and private institutions, for they must often make important decisions based upon such predictions. This text explores how institutions might improve their predictions and arrive at better decisions by means of prediction markets.

Author : Michael McDonald
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 218 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2002-10-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780471271574

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Predict Market Swings With Technical Analysis by Michael McDonald Pdf

A fresh perspective on predicting the market The experience of Wall Street investment manager and analyst Michael McDonald offers a new perspective on how to navigate the turbulent ups and downs of the markets. His innovative approach to the stock market teaches investors how to use new investment strategies intended to replace the "buy and hold forever" strategies of yesterday. McDonald discusses what a "trading range" market is-a roller-coaster ride in which the market will neither gain nor lose much ground-and guides readers through this market with his proven investment strategies. This book provides an understandable way to make sense of the unpredictable stock market, taking into account more complex theories, including chaos and contrarian approaches. Along with his expert advice, McDonald presents four investing paradoxes that will help investors make smarter decisions now and predict where the market is heading, using his proven theories.

Author : Sanmay Das,Michael Ostrovsky,David Pennock,Boleslaw K. Szymanski
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 116 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2009-07-31
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783642038211

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Auctions, Market Mechanisms and Their Applications by Sanmay Das,Michael Ostrovsky,David Pennock,Boleslaw K. Szymanski Pdf

These proceedings present the technical contributions to the First Conference on A- tions, Market Mechanisms, and Their Applications (AMMA), held May 8-9, 2009 in Boston, Massachusetts, USA. The conference was devoted to issues that arise in all stages of deploying a market mechanism to solve a problem, including theoretical and empirical examinations. In addition to more traditional academic papers, the conf- ence placed emphasis on experiences from the real world, including case studies and new applications. The main goal of AMMA was to explore the synergy required for good mechanism design. This includes an understanding of the economic and game-theoretic issues, the ability to design protocols and algorithms for realizing desired outcomes, and the knowledge of specific institutional details that are important in practical applications. We were lucky enough to attract papers and talks from economists and computer scientists, theorists and empiricists, academics and practitioners. The program, as reflected in these proceedings, ranged from fundamental theory on auctions and m- kets to empirical design and analysis of matching mechanisms, peer-to-peer-systems, and prediction markets.

Author : Robert Passikoff
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 256 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2006-12-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780470088791

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Predicting Market Success by Robert Passikoff Pdf

Praise for Predicting Market Success "Predicting Market Success has come at the right time for major companies. The value of understanding the dimensions of your brand's unique appeal and strength of preference is indispensable for brand strategy today. This book is well worth your time." —Joseph T. Plummer, Chief Research OfficerThe Advertising Research Foundation "In the competitive world of branding, understanding what drives consumer loyalty is the cornerstone of a brand's continued success. Passikoff's market-driven insights on how to obtain, analyze, and utilize loyalty metrics will help you make strategic, brand-enhancing decisions." —Seth M. Siegel, Cochairman, The Beanstalk Group "Passikoff is the guy who can explain to me why people buy certain things from certain companies, even though other things by other companies seem just as good. With his great feel for pop culture and almost philosophical outlook, he understands what makes consumers tick-and stick." —Lenore Skenazy, syndicated columnist "Loyalty is a key component of the strength of a brand and brand equity, and Passikoff understands loyalty like few others. In this book, he captures the essence of loyalty and branding in a practical way-showing how loyalty drives profitability." —Erich Joachimsthaler, Chairman, Vivaldi Partners "If you want a business book that will make you feel justified, complimented, and comfortable, don't read this. If you want a book to challenge your beliefs about brand marketing right down to the core, you can't afford not to." —John Gaffney, Executive Editor, Peppers & Rogers Group

Author : Donald A. Bradley
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 76 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 1948
Category : Astrology
ISBN : UIUC:30112032887173

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Stock Market Prediction by Donald A. Bradley Pdf

Author : Michael Sincere
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
Page : 224 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2014-04-18
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781440571725

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Predict the Next Bull or Bear Market and Win by Michael Sincere Pdf

The secrets to making money--no matter what the market conditions! A fundamental guide to investing, Predict the Next Bull or Bear Market and Win shows you how to build your wealth and protect your investments in an ever-changing market. With author and financial expert Michael Sincere's guidance, you'll learn everything you need to know about the key economic indicators that can help you predict the market's performance and better understand when to sell and when to buy. Unlike competing books that attempt a comprehensive survey of all market indicators, Sincere focuses only on those that make a real impact. His clear, concise strategies show you how to prosper during bull markets, be cautious during sideways markets, and make a profit when the market is going down. Predict the Next Bull or Bear Market and Win thoroughly educates you on the small number of indicators that are essential to a growing portfolio in a tumultuous market. By understanding the right economic indicators, you'll learn how to make money in any kind of market!