Prediction Projection And Forecasting

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Prediction, Projection and Forecasting

Thomas L. Saaty,Luis G. Vargas
Prediction Projection and Forecasting Book PDF

Author : Thomas L. Saaty,Luis G. Vargas
Publisher : Springer
Page : 254 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2012-12-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9401579547

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Prediction, Projection and Forecasting by Thomas L. Saaty,Luis G. Vargas Pdf

We predict when we say in advance, foretell, or prophesy what is likely to happen in the future. We project when we calculate the numerical value associated with a future event. We forecast, a special kind of prediction, on data of past happenings to generate or cast data for future by relying happenings. Generally, one predicts (yes, no) a war, an earthquake or the outcome of a chess match, projects the value of the GNP or of unemployment, and forecasts the weather and, more scientifically, the economic trends. Prediction, projection, and forecasting must be constrained in time and space: when and where. Often the accuracy of a forecast is of interest along with how sensitive the outcome is to changes in the factors involved. Is there a basis for improving the wisdom we need to make correct and useful predictions? We believe there is, and that it can be cultivated by studying the approach given here along with the various examples. To the best of our knowledge, no other work has approached prediction in the scientific framework of hierarchies. Prediction is the synthesis of past and present in an attempt to foretell the future. In our view, creation is not the ultimate phenomenon of the world. Nature creates forms and so do we. The problem is to surmise the eventual purpose, impact, and use of creation. It is the synthesis or outcome of bringing together the results of creation that we need to predict.

Prediction, Projection and Forecasting

Thomas L. Saaty,Luis G. Vargas
Prediction Projection and Forecasting Book PDF

Author : Thomas L. Saaty,Luis G. Vargas
Publisher : Springer
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 1990-12-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9401579520

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Prediction, Projection and Forecasting by Thomas L. Saaty,Luis G. Vargas Pdf

We predict when we say in advance, foretell, or prophesy what is likely to happen in the future. We project when we calculate the numerical value associated with a future event. We forecast, a special kind of prediction, on data of past happenings to generate or cast data for future by relying happenings. Generally, one predicts (yes, no) a war, an earthquake or the outcome of a chess match, projects the value of the GNP or of unemployment, and forecasts the weather and, more scientifically, the economic trends. Prediction, projection, and forecasting must be constrained in time and space: when and where. Often the accuracy of a forecast is of interest along with how sensitive the outcome is to changes in the factors involved. Is there a basis for improving the wisdom we need to make correct and useful predictions? We believe there is, and that it can be cultivated by studying the approach given here along with the various examples. To the best of our knowledge, no other work has approached prediction in the scientific framework of hierarchies. Prediction is the synthesis of past and present in an attempt to foretell the future. In our view, creation is not the ultimate phenomenon of the world. Nature creates forms and so do we. The problem is to surmise the eventual purpose, impact, and use of creation. It is the synthesis or outcome of bringing together the results of creation that we need to predict.

Forecasting: principles and practice

Rob J Hyndman,George Athanasopoulos
Forecasting principles and practice Book PDF

Author : Rob J Hyndman,George Athanasopoulos
Publisher : OTexts
Page : 380 pages
File Size : 45,5 Mb
Release : 2018-05-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780987507112

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Forecasting: principles and practice by Rob J Hyndman,George Athanasopoulos Pdf

Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Forecasting

David Hendry,Jennifer Castle,Michael Clements
Forecasting Book PDF

Author : David Hendry,Jennifer Castle,Michael Clements
Publisher : Yale University Press
Page : 232 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2019-06-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780300248241

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Forecasting by David Hendry,Jennifer Castle,Michael Clements Pdf

Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive—this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve’s record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.

Business Forecasting

Michael Gilliland,Len Tashman,Udo Sglavo
Business Forecasting Book PDF

Author : Michael Gilliland,Len Tashman,Udo Sglavo
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 419 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2016-01-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781119224563

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Business Forecasting by Michael Gilliland,Len Tashman,Udo Sglavo Pdf

A comprehensive collection of the field's most provocative, influential new work Business Forecasting compiles some of the field's important and influential literature into a single, comprehensive reference for forecast modeling and process improvement. It is packed with provocative ideas from forecasting researchers and practitioners, on topics including accuracy metrics, benchmarking, modeling of problem data, and overcoming dysfunctional behaviors. Its coverage includes often-overlooked issues at the forefront of research, such as uncertainty, randomness, and forecastability, as well as emerging areas like data mining for forecasting. The articles present critical analysis of current practices and consideration of new ideas. With a mix of formal, rigorous pieces and brief introductory chapters, the book provides practitioners with a comprehensive examination of the current state of the business forecasting field. Forecasting performance is ultimately limited by the 'forecastability' of the data. Yet failing to recognize this, many organizations continue to squander resources pursuing unachievable levels of accuracy. This book provides a wealth of ideas for improving all aspects of the process, including the avoidance of wasted efforts that fail to improve (or even harm) forecast accuracy. Analyzes the most prominent issues in business forecasting Investigates emerging approaches and new methods of analysis Combines forecasts to improve accuracy Utilizes Forecast Value Added to identify process inefficiency The business environment is evolving, and forecasting methods must evolve alongside it. This compilation delivers an array of new tools and research that can enable more efficient processes and more accurate results. Business Forecasting provides an expert's-eye view of the field's latest developments to help you achieve your desired business outcomes.

Feature Papers of Forecasting

Sonia Leva
Feature Papers of Forecasting Book PDF

Author : Sonia Leva
Publisher : MDPI
Page : 188 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2021-08-06
Category : Science
ISBN : 9783036510309

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Feature Papers of Forecasting by Sonia Leva Pdf

Nowadays, forecast applications are receiving unprecedent attention thanks to their capability to improve the decision-making processes by providing useful indications. A large number of forecast approaches related to different forecast horizons and to the specific problem that have to be predicted have been proposed in recent scientific literature, from physical models to data-driven statistic and machine learning approaches. In this Special Issue, the most recent and high-quality researches about forecast are collected. A total of nine papers have been selected to represent a wide range of applications, from weather and environmental predictions to economic and management forecasts. Finally, some applications related to the forecasting of the different phases of COVID in Spain and the photovoltaic power production have been presented.

Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction of Discrete Time Series

Robert Goodell Brown
Smoothing Forecasting and Prediction of Discrete Time Series Book PDF

Author : Robert Goodell Brown
Publisher : Courier Corporation
Page : 486 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2004-01-01
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 0486495922

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Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction of Discrete Time Series by Robert Goodell Brown Pdf

Computer application techniques are applied to routine short-term forecasting and prediction in this classic of operations research. The text begins with a consideration of data sources and sampling intervals, progressing to discussions of time series models and probability models. An extensive overview of smoothing techniques surveys the mathematical techniques for periodically raising the estimates of coefficients in forecasting problems. Sections on forecasting and error measurement and analysis are followed by an exploration of alternatives and the applications of the forecast to specific problems, and a treatment of the handling of systems design problems ranges from observed data to decision rules. 1963 ed.

Forecasting

Spyros G. Makridakis,Steven C. Wheelwright,Rob J. Hyndman
Forecasting Book PDF

Author : Spyros G. Makridakis,Steven C. Wheelwright,Rob J. Hyndman
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 664 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 1998-01-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : STANFORD:36105110355877

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Forecasting by Spyros G. Makridakis,Steven C. Wheelwright,Rob J. Hyndman Pdf

Known from its last editions as the "Bible of Forecasting", the third edition of this authoritative text has adopted a new approach-one that is as new as the latest trends in the field: "Explaining the past is not adequate for predicting the future". In other words, accurate forecasting requires more than just the fitting of models to historical data. Inside, readers will find the latest techniques used by managers in business today, discover the importance of forecasting and learn how it's accomplished. And readers will develop the necessary skills to meet the increased demand for thoughtful and realistic forecasts.

Future Ready

Steve Morlidge,Steve Player
Future Ready Book PDF

Author : Steve Morlidge,Steve Player
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 328 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2010-01-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780470747056

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Future Ready by Steve Morlidge,Steve Player Pdf

The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe. It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. ’Good enough’ forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future. Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as: What makes a good forecast? What period should a forecast cover? How frequently should it be updated? What information should it contain? What is the best way to produce a forecast? How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation? How should a forecast be used? How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable? How accurate does it need to be? How should you deal with risk and uncertainty What is the best way to organize a forecast process? Do you need multiple forecasts? What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting? Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management. Praise for Future Ready "Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward" —Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC "Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one" —Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro "A timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement." —Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many standard texts including Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis, Introduction to Management Accounting, and Financial Accounting "In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market." —Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group

Time-Series Forecasting

Chris Chatfield
Time Series Forecasting Book PDF

Author : Chris Chatfield
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 281 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2000-10-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781420036206

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Time-Series Forecasting by Chris Chatfield Pdf

From the author of the bestselling "Analysis of Time Series," Time-Series Forecasting offers a comprehensive, up-to-date review of forecasting methods. It provides a summary of time-series modelling procedures, followed by a brief catalogue of many different time-series forecasting methods, ranging from ad-hoc methods through ARIMA and state-space

Economic Forecasting

Graham Elliott,Allan Timmermann
Economic Forecasting Book PDF

Author : Graham Elliott,Allan Timmermann
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 568 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2016-04-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781400880898

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Economic Forecasting by Graham Elliott,Allan Timmermann Pdf

A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike

Business Forecasting

Michael Gilliland,Len Tashman,Udo Sglavo
Business Forecasting Book PDF

Author : Michael Gilliland,Len Tashman,Udo Sglavo
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 432 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2021-04-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781119782582

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Business Forecasting by Michael Gilliland,Len Tashman,Udo Sglavo Pdf

Discover the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence in business forecasting from some of the brightest minds in the field In Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning accomplished authors Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo deliver relevant and timely insights from some of the most important and influential authors in the field of forecasting. You'll learn about the role played by machine learning and AI in the forecasting process and discover brand-new research, case studies, and thoughtful discussions covering an array of practical topics. The book offers multiple perspectives on issues like monitoring forecast performance, forecasting process, communication and accountability for forecasts, and the use of big data in forecasting. You will find: Discussions on deep learning in forecasting, including current trends and challenges Explorations of neural network-based forecasting strategies A treatment of the future of artificial intelligence in business forecasting Analyses of forecasting methods, including modeling, selection, and monitoring In addition to the Foreword by renowned researchers Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, the book also includes 16 "opinion/editorial" Afterwords by a diverse range of top academics, consultants, vendors, and industry practitioners, each providing their own unique vision of the issues, current state, and future direction of business forecasting. Perfect for financial controllers, chief financial officers, business analysts, forecast analysts, and demand planners, Business Forecasting will also earn a place in the libraries of other executives and managers who seek a one-stop resource to help them critically assess and improve their own organization's forecasting efforts.

Superforecasting

Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
Superforecasting Book PDF

Author : Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
Publisher : Crown
Page : 352 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2015-09-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780804136709

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Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner Pdf

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Forecasting Economic Time Series

C. W. J. Granger,Paul Newbold
Forecasting Economic Time Series Book PDF

Author : C. W. J. Granger,Paul Newbold
Publisher : Academic Press
Page : 353 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2014-05-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781483273242

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Forecasting Economic Time Series by C. W. J. Granger,Paul Newbold Pdf

Economic Theory, Econometrics, and Mathematical Economics, Second Edition: Forecasting Economic Time Series presents the developments in time series analysis and forecasting theory and practice. This book discusses the application of time series procedures in mainstream economic theory and econometric model building. Organized into 10 chapters, this edition begins with an overview of the problem of dealing with time series possessing a deterministic seasonal component. This text then provides a description of time series in terms of models known as the time-domain approach. Other chapters consider an alternative approach, known as spectral or frequency-domain analysis, that often provides useful insights into the properties of a series. This book discusses as well a unified approach to the fitting of linear models to a given time series. The final chapter deals with the main advantage of having a Gaussian series wherein the optimal single series, least-squares forecast will be a linear forecast. This book is a valuable resource for economists.

Statistical Forecasting

Warren Gilchrist
Statistical Forecasting Book PDF

Author : Warren Gilchrist
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 324 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 1976
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : MINN:31951001186316T

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Statistical Forecasting by Warren Gilchrist Pdf

Forecasting for some basic models; The forecasting process.