Probabilistic Expert Systems

Author : Robert G. Cowell,Philip Dawid,Steffen L. Lauritzen,David J. Spiegelhalter
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 340 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2007-07-16
Category : Computers
ISBN : 0387718230

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Probabilistic Networks and Expert Systems by Robert G. Cowell,Philip Dawid,Steffen L. Lauritzen,David J. Spiegelhalter Pdf

Probabilistic expert systems are graphical networks which support the modeling of uncertainty and decisions in large complex domains, while retaining ease of calculation. Building on original research by the authors, this book gives a thorough and rigorous mathematical treatment of the underlying ideas, structures, and algorithms. The book will be of interest to researchers in both artificial intelligence and statistics, who desire an introduction to this fascinating and rapidly developing field. The book, winner of the DeGroot Prize 2002, the only book prize in the field of statistics, is new in paperback.

Author : Enrique Castillo,Jose M. Gutierrez,Ali S. Hadi
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 612 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781461222705

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Expert Systems and Probabilistic Network Models by Enrique Castillo,Jose M. Gutierrez,Ali S. Hadi Pdf

Artificial intelligence and expert systems have seen a great deal of research in recent years, much of which has been devoted to methods for incorporating uncertainty into models. This book is devoted to providing a thorough and up-to-date survey of this field for researchers and students.

Author : Richard E. Neapolitan
Publisher : CreateSpace
Page : 448 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2012-06-01
Category : Computers
ISBN : 1477452540

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Probabilistic Reasoning in Expert Systems by Richard E. Neapolitan Pdf

This text is a reprint of the seminal 1989 book Probabilistic Reasoning in Expert systems: Theory and Algorithms, which helped serve to create the field we now call Bayesian networks. It introduces the properties of Bayesian networks (called causal networks in the text), discusses algorithms for doing inference in Bayesian networks, covers abductive inference, and provides an introduction to decision analysis. Furthermore, it compares rule-base experts systems to ones based on Bayesian networks, and it introduces the frequentist and Bayesian approaches to probability. Finally, it provides a critique of the maximum entropy formalism. Probabilistic Reasoning in Expert Systems was written from the perspective of a mathematician with the emphasis being on the development of theorems and algorithms. Every effort was made to make the material accessible. There are ample examples throughout the text. This text is important reading for anyone interested in both the fundamentals of Bayesian networks and in the history of how they came to be. It also provides an insightful comparison of the two most prominent approaches to probability.

Author : Glenn Shafer
Publisher : SIAM
Page : 88 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 1996-01-01
Category : Computers
ISBN : 1611970040

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Probabilistic Expert Systems by Glenn Shafer Pdf

Probabilistic Expert Systems emphasizes the basic computational principles that make probabilistic reasoning feasible in expert systems. The key to computation in these systems is the modularity of the probabilistic model. Shafer describes and compares the principal architectures for exploiting this modularity in the computation of prior and posterior probabilities. He also indicates how these similar yet different architectures apply to a wide variety of other problems of recursive computation in applied mathematics and operations research. The field of probabilistic expert systems has continued to flourish since the author delivered his lectures on the topic in June 1992, but the understanding of join-tree architectures has remained missing from the literature. This monograph fills this void by providing an analysis of join-tree methods for the computation of prior and posterior probabilities in belief nets. These methods, pioneered in the mid to late 1980s, continue to be central to the theory and practice of probabilistic expert systems. In addition to purely probabilistic expert systems, join-tree methods are also used in expert systems based on Dempster-Shafer belief functions or on possibility measures. Variations are also used for computation in relational databases, in linear optimization, and in constraint satisfaction. This book describes probabilistic expert systems in a more rigorous and focused way than existing literature, and provides an annotated bibliography that includes pointers to conferences and software. Also included are exercises that will help the reader begin to explore the problem of generalizing from probability to broader domains of recursive computation.

Author : Richard E. Neapolitan
Publisher : Wiley-Interscience
Page : 492 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 1990-03-16
Category : Computers
ISBN : UOM:39015017023329

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Probabilistic Reasoning in Expert Systems by Richard E. Neapolitan Pdf

Addresses the use probability theory as a tool for designing with and implementing uncertainity reasoning. Provides many concrete algorithms, explores techniques for solving multimembership classification problems not based directly on causal networks, and offers practical recommendations, matching specific methods with sample expert systems.

Author : Judea Pearl
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 552 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2014-06-28
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9780080514895

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Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems by Judea Pearl Pdf

Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems is a complete and accessible account of the theoretical foundations and computational methods that underlie plausible reasoning under uncertainty. The author provides a coherent explication of probability as a language for reasoning with partial belief and offers a unifying perspective on other AI approaches to uncertainty, such as the Dempster-Shafer formalism, truth maintenance systems, and nonmonotonic logic. The author distinguishes syntactic and semantic approaches to uncertainty--and offers techniques, based on belief networks, that provide a mechanism for making semantics-based systems operational. Specifically, network-propagation techniques serve as a mechanism for combining the theoretical coherence of probability theory with modern demands of reasoning-systems technology: modular declarative inputs, conceptually meaningful inferences, and parallel distributed computation. Application areas include diagnosis, forecasting, image interpretation, multi-sensor fusion, decision support systems, plan recognition, planning, speech recognition--in short, almost every task requiring that conclusions be drawn from uncertain clues and incomplete information. Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems will be of special interest to scholars and researchers in AI, decision theory, statistics, logic, philosophy, cognitive psychology, and the management sciences. Professionals in the areas of knowledge-based systems, operations research, engineering, and statistics will find theoretical and computational tools of immediate practical use. The book can also be used as an excellent text for graduate-level courses in AI, operations research, or applied probability.

Author : Petr Hajek,Tomas Havranek,Radim Jirousek
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 310 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 1992-06-29
Category : Computers
ISBN : 0849363683

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Uncertain Information Processing In Expert Systems by Petr Hajek,Tomas Havranek,Radim Jirousek Pdf

Uncertain Information Processing in Expert Systems systematically and critically examines probabilistic and rule-based (compositional, MYCIN-like) systems, the two most important families of expert systems dealing with uncertainty. The book features a detailed introduction to probabilistic systems (including methods using graphical models and methods of knowledge integration), an analysis of compositional systems based on algebraic considerations, an application of graphical models, and the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence and its use in expert systems. The book will be useful to anyone working in artificial intelligence, statistical computing, symbolic logic, and expert systems.

Author : David E. Heckerman
Publisher : MIT Press (MA)
Page : 272 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 1991
Category : Computers
ISBN : UOM:39015025008452

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Probabilistic Similarity Networks by David E. Heckerman Pdf

In this remarkable blend of formal theory and practical application, David Heckerman develops methods for building normative expert systems—expert systems that encode knowledge in a decision-theoretic framework. Heckerman introduces the similarity network and partition, two extensions to the influence diagram representation. He uses the new representations to construct Pathfinder, a large, normative expert system for the diagnosis of lymph-node diseases. Heckerman shows that such expert systems can be built efficiently, and that the use of a normative theory as the framework for representing knowledge can dramatically improve the quality of expertise that is delivered to the user. He concludes with a formal evaluation of the power of his methods for building normative expert systems. David Heckerman is Assistant Professor of Computer Science at the University of Southern California. He received his doctoral degree in Medical Information Sciences from Stanford University. Contents: Introduction. Similarity Networks and Partitions: A Simple Example. Theory of Similarity Networks. Pathfinder: A Case Study. An Evaluation of Pathfinder. Conclusions and Future Work.

Author : Robert G. Cowell,Philip Dawid,Steffen L. Lauritzen,David J. Spiegelhalter
Publisher : Springer
Page : 324 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2007-07-25
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 0387718265

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Probabilistic Networks and Expert Systems by Robert G. Cowell,Philip Dawid,Steffen L. Lauritzen,David J. Spiegelhalter Pdf

Probabilistic expert systems are graphical networks which support the modeling of uncertainty and decisions in large complex domains, while retaining ease of calculation. Building on original research by the authors, this book gives a thorough and rigorous mathematical treatment of the underlying ideas, structures, and algorithms. The book will be of interest to researchers in both artificial intelligence and statistics, who desire an introduction to this fascinating and rapidly developing field. The book, winner of the DeGroot Prize 2002, the only book prize in the field of statistics, is new in paperback.

Author : Robert Babuška,Frans C.A. Groen
Publisher : Springer
Page : 586 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2010-03-22
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783642116889

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Interactive Collaborative Information Systems by Robert Babuška,Frans C.A. Groen Pdf

The increasing complexity of our world demands new perspectives on the role of technology in decision making. Human decision making has its li- tations in terms of information-processing capacity. We need new technology to cope with the increasingly complex and information-rich nature of our modern society. This is particularly true for critical environments such as crisis management and tra?c management, where humans need to engage in close collaborations with arti?cial systems to observe and understand the situation and respond in a sensible way. We believe that close collaborations between humans and arti?cial systems will become essential and that the importance of research into Interactive Collaborative Information Systems (ICIS) is self-evident. Developments in information and communication technology have ra- cally changed our working environments. The vast amount of information available nowadays and the wirelessly networked nature of our modern so- ety open up new opportunities to handle di?cult decision-making situations such as computer-supported situation assessment and distributed decision making. To make good use of these new possibilities, we need to update our traditional views on the role and capabilities of information systems. The aim of the Interactive Collaborative Information Systems project is to develop techniques that support humans in complex information en- ronments and that facilitate distributed decision-making capabilities. ICIS emphasizes the importance of building actor-agent communities: close c- laborations between human and arti?cial actors that highlight their comp- mentary capabilities, and in which task distribution is ?exible and adaptive.

Author : Frank Puppe
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 353 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783642779718

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Systematic Introduction to Expert Systems by Frank Puppe Pdf

At present one of the main obstacles to a broader application of expert systems is the lack of a theory to tell us which problem-solving methods areavailable for a given problem class. Such a theory could lead to significant progress in the following central aims of the expert system technique: - Evaluating the technical feasibility of expert system projects: This depends on whether there is a suitable problem-solving method, and if possible a corresponding tool, for the given problem class. - Simplifying knowledge acquisition and maintenance: The problem-solving methods provide direct assistance as interpretation models in knowledge acquisition. Also, they make possible the development of problem-specific expert system tools with graphical knowledge acquisition components, which can be used even by experts without programming experience. - Making use of expert systems as a knowledge medium: The structured knowledge in expert systems can be used not only for problem solving but also for knowledge communication and tutorial purposes. With such a theory in mind, this book provides a systematic introduction to expert systems. It describes the basic knowledge representations and the present situation with regard tothe identification, realization, and integration of problem-solving methods for the main problem classes of expert systems: classification (diagnostics), construction, and simulation.

Author : Fahiem Bacchus
Publisher : Cambridge, Mass. : MIT Press
Page : 264 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 1990
Category : Computers
ISBN : UOM:39015021630440

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Representing and Reasoning with Probabilistic Knowledge by Fahiem Bacchus Pdf

Probabilistic information has many uses in an intelligent system. This book explores logical formalisms for representing and reasoning with probabilistic information that will be of particular value to researchers in nonmonotonic reasoning, applications of probabilities, and knowledge representation. It demonstrates that probabilities are not limited to particular applications, like expert systems; they have an important role to play in the formal design and specification of intelligent systems in general. Fahiem Bacchus focuses on two distinct notions of probabilities: one propositional, involving degrees of belief, the other proportional, involving statistics. He constructs distinct logics with different semantics for each type of probability that are a significant advance in the formal tools available for representing and reasoning with probabilities. These logics can represent an extensive variety of qualitative assertions, eliminating requirements for exact point-valued probabilities, and they can represent firstshy;order logical information. The logics also have proof theories which give a formal specification for a class of reasoning that subsumes and integrates most of the probabilistic reasoning schemes so far developed in AI. Using the new logical tools to connect statistical with propositional probability, Bacchus also proposes a system of direct inference in which degrees of belief can be inferred from statistical knowledge and demonstrates how this mechanism can be applied to yield a powerful and intuitively satisfying system of defeasible or default reasoning. Fahiem Bacchus is Assistant Professor of Computer Science at the University of Waterloo, Ontario. Contents: Introduction. Propositional Probabilities. Statistical Probabilities. Combining Statistical and Propositional Probabilities Default Inferences from Statistical Knowledge.

Author : Romano Scozzafava
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 218 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 1993
Category : Expert systems (Computer science)
ISBN : UOM:39015063187861

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Probabilistic Methods in Expert Systems by Romano Scozzafava Pdf

Author : Bryan S. Todd
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 95 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 1992
Category : Computer software
ISBN : 0902928732

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An Introduction to Expert Systems by Bryan S. Todd Pdf

Abstract: "This monograph provides an introduction to the theory of expert systems. The task of medical diagnosis is used as a unifying theme throughout. A broad perspective is taken, ranging from the role of diagnostic programs to methods of evaluation. While much emphasis is placed on probability theory, other calculi of uncertainty are given due consideration."

Author : Peter Lucas,Linda van der Gaag
Publisher : Addison Wesley Publishing Company
Page : 544 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 1991
Category : Computers
ISBN : UOM:39015024931589

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Principles of Expert Systems by Peter Lucas,Linda van der Gaag Pdf