Procyclicality And The Search For Early Warning Indicators

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Procyclicality and the Search for Early Warning Indicators

Mr.Hyun Song Shin
Procyclicality and the Search for Early Warning Indicators Book PDF

Author : Mr.Hyun Song Shin
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 16 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2013-12-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484321348

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Procyclicality and the Search for Early Warning Indicators by Mr.Hyun Song Shin Pdf

This paper compares three types of early warning indicators of financial instability – those based on financial market prices, those based on normalized measures of total credit and those based on liabilities of financial intermediaries. Prices perform well as concurrent indicators of market conditions but are not suitable as early warning indicators. Total credit and liabilities convey similar information and perform better as early warning indicators, but liabilities are more transparent and the decomposition between core and non-core liabilities convey additional useful information.

Managing Elevated Risk

Iwan J. Azis,Hyun Song Shin
Managing Elevated Risk Book PDF

Author : Iwan J. Azis,Hyun Song Shin
Publisher : Springer
Page : 124 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2014-12-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789812872845

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Managing Elevated Risk by Iwan J. Azis,Hyun Song Shin Pdf

This book discusses the risks and opportunities that arise in Emerging Asia given the context of a new environment in global liquidity and capital flows. It elaborates on the need to ensure financial and overall economic stability in the region through improved financial regulation and other policy measures to minimize the emergent risks. "Managing Elevated Risk: Global Liquidity, Capital Flows, and Macroprudential Policy—An Asian Perspective" also explores the range of policy options that may be deployed to address the impact of global liquidity on domestic financial and socio-economic conditions including income inequality. The book is primarily aimed at policy makers, financial market regulators and supervisory agencies to help them improve national regulatory systems and to promote harmonization of national regulations and practices in line with global standards. Scholars and researchers will also gain important information and knowledge about the overall impacts of changing global liquidity from the book.

Financial Crises

Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose,Mr.Luc Laeven,Mr.Fabian Valencia
Financial Crises Book PDF

Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose,Mr.Luc Laeven,Mr.Fabian Valencia
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 754 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2014-02-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484355268

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Financial Crises by Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose,Mr.Luc Laeven,Mr.Fabian Valencia Pdf

The lingering effects of the economic crisis are still visible—this shows a clear need to improve our understanding of financial crises. This book surveys a wide range of crises, including banking, balance of payments, and sovereign debt crises. It begins with an overview of the various types of crises and introduces a comprehensive database of crises. Broad lessons on crisis prevention and management, as well as the short-term economic effects of crises, recessions, and recoveries, are discussed.

Financial Cycles – Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises?

Ms. Sally Chen,Katsiaryna Svirydzenka
Financial Cycles Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises Book PDF

Author : Ms. Sally Chen,Katsiaryna Svirydzenka
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 79 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2021-04-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513582306

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Financial Cycles – Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises? by Ms. Sally Chen,Katsiaryna Svirydzenka Pdf

Can the upturns and downturns in financial variables serve as early warning indicators of banking crises? Using data from 59 advanced and emerging economies, we show that financial overheating can be detected in real time. Equity prices and output gap are the best leading indicators in advanced markets; in emerging markets, these are equity and property prices and credit gap. Moreover, aggregating this information flags financial crisis many years before the crisis. Lastly, we find that the length of financial cycles is of medium-term frequency, calling into question the longer frequency widely used in the estimation of countercyclical capital buffers.

Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications

Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose
Financial Crises Explanations Types and Implications Book PDF

Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 66 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2013-01-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475561005

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Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications by Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose Pdf

This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy

International Monetary Fund
Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2014-06-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498342629

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Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy by International Monetary Fund Pdf

This note provides guidance to facilitate the staff’s advice on macroprudential policy in Fund surveillance. It elaborates on the principles set out in the “Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy,” taking into account the work of international standard setters as well as the evolving country experience with macroprudential policy. The main note is accompanied by supplements offering Detailed Guidance on Instruments and Considerations for Low Income Countries

Institutional Structure of Financial Regulation

Robin Hui Huang,Dirk Schoenmaker
Institutional Structure of Financial Regulation Book PDF

Author : Robin Hui Huang,Dirk Schoenmaker
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 284 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2014-06-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317910633

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Institutional Structure of Financial Regulation by Robin Hui Huang,Dirk Schoenmaker Pdf

In light of on-going global financial crises, the institutional structure of financial regulation is currently a subject of significant academic and practical interest. The financial crisis has called into question the adequacy of financial regulation at the national and supranational levels, and has instigated financial regulatory reforms in major markets overseas. This has included the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Act in the US, and the programme to split the Financial Services Authority in the UK. This book examines the institutional structure reform of financial regulation from a comparative perspective, exploring both fundamental theories and international experiences. The book explores the three main institutional structures of financial regulation in the world; the sectors-based model, adopted in the US, Mainland China and Hong Kong; the twin-peaks model with Australia and the Netherlands as its pioneers; and the single-regulator model as represented by the former Financial Services Authority in the UK and the Financial Services Agency in Japan. The book contains contributions from renowned experts in the field of financial regulation including Douglas Arner, Jeffrey Carmichael, Robin Hui Huang, Dirk Schoenmaker, and Michael Taylor, and will be of interest to students and researchers of banking and finance law, and comparative economics.

Cyclical Patterns of Systemic Risk Metrics: Cross-Country Analysis

Mr.Plamen K Iossifov,Tomas Dutra Schmidt
Cyclical Patterns of Systemic Risk Metrics Cross Country Analysis Book PDF

Author : Mr.Plamen K Iossifov,Tomas Dutra Schmidt
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2021-02-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513568652

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Cyclical Patterns of Systemic Risk Metrics: Cross-Country Analysis by Mr.Plamen K Iossifov,Tomas Dutra Schmidt Pdf

We analyze a range of macrofinancial indicators to extract signals about cyclical systemic risk across 107 economies over 1995–2020. We construct composite indices of underlying liquidity, solvency and mispricing risks and analyze their patterns over the financial cycle. We find that liquidity and solvency risk indicators tend to be counter-cyclical, whereas mispricing risk ones are procyclical, and they all lead the credit cycle. Our results lend support to high-level accounts that risks were underestimated by stress indicators in the run-up to the 2008 global financial crisis. The policy implications of conflicting risk signals would depend on the phase of the credit cycle.

IMF Research Bulletin, March 2014

International Monetary Fund
IMF Research Bulletin March 2014 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 15 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2014-03-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475534238

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IMF Research Bulletin, March 2014 by International Monetary Fund Pdf

The Research Summaries in the March 2014 Research Bulletin focus on efficiency of health expenditure (Francesco Grigoli and Javier Kapsoli) and employment growth in European Union countries (Bas B. Bakker and Li Zeng). The Q&A article looks at “Seven Questions on Financial Interconnectedness” (Co-Pierre Georg and Camelia Minoiu). The Research Bulletin also includes a listing of IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore. Information on the IMF Economic Review—the research journal of the IMF—is also provided.

Dynamic Modeling, Empirical Macroeconomics, and Finance

Lucas Bernard,Unurjargal Nyambuu
Dynamic Modeling Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance Book PDF

Author : Lucas Bernard,Unurjargal Nyambuu
Publisher : Springer
Page : 325 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2016-10-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319398877

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Dynamic Modeling, Empirical Macroeconomics, and Finance by Lucas Bernard,Unurjargal Nyambuu Pdf

This edited volume, with contributions by area experts, offers discussions on a range of evolving topics in economics and social development. At center are important issues central to sustainable development, economic growth, technological change, the economics of climate change, commodity markets, long wave theory, non-linear dynamic models, and boom-bust cycles. This is an excellent reference for academic and professional economists interested in emerging areas of empirical macroeconomics and finance. For policy makers and curious readers alike, it is also an outstanding introduction to the economic thinking of those who seek a holistic and all-compassing approach in economic theory and policy. Looking into new data and methodology, this book offers fresh approaches in a post-crisis environment. Set in a profound understanding of the diverse currents within the many traditions of economic thought, this book pushes the established frontiers of economic thinking. It is dedicated to a leading scholar in the areas covered in this book, Willi Semmler.

Rules, Discretion, and Macro-Prudential Policy

Mr.Itai Agur,Mr.Sunil Sharma
Rules Discretion and Macro Prudential Policy Book PDF

Author : Mr.Itai Agur,Mr.Sunil Sharma
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 59 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2013-03-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475553390

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Rules, Discretion, and Macro-Prudential Policy by Mr.Itai Agur,Mr.Sunil Sharma Pdf

The paper examines the implementation of macro-prudential policy. Given the coordination, flow of information, analysis, and communication required, macro-prudential frameworks will have weaknesses that make it hard to implement policy. And dealing with the political economy is also likely to be challenging. But limiting discretion through the formulation of macro-prudential rules is complicated by the difficulties in detecting and measuring systemic risk. The paper suggests that oversight is best served by having a strong baseline regulatory regime on which a time-varying macro-prudential policy can be added as conditions warrant and permit.

Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy - Detailed Guidance on Instruments

International Monetary Fund
Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy Detailed Guidance on Instruments Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 129 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2014-07-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498342605

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Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy - Detailed Guidance on Instruments by International Monetary Fund Pdf

This note covers considerations that can guide the staff’s policy advice on the use of a broad range of macroprudential tools. It discusses the transmission and likely effectiveness of these tools in mitigating systemic risks and the set of indicators that can be used in surveillance to assess the need for changes in macroprudential policy settings. This note is a supplement to the Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy.

EIB Working Papers 2019/11 - Macro-based asset allocation

European Investment Bank
EIB Working Papers 2019 11 Macro based asset allocation Book PDF

Author : European Investment Bank
Publisher : European Investment Bank
Page : 96 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2020-02-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789286144905

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EIB Working Papers 2019/11 - Macro-based asset allocation by European Investment Bank Pdf

Macro-based asset allocation is based on the identification of turning points in macro-financial cycles. This paper suggests that macro-based asset allocation informed by trends in continuous business and financial cycle indicators could be a promising alternative for medium- and long-term investment strategies. Despite changes during the last three decades, the most promising specifications of this approach did roughly anticipate turning points in asset price cycles, implying favourable returns and low portfolio volatility.

Frontiers of Economic Policy Communications

Ms.Olga Ilinichna Stankova
Frontiers of Economic Policy Communications Book PDF

Author : Ms.Olga Ilinichna Stankova
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 72 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2019-05-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498315807

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Frontiers of Economic Policy Communications by Ms.Olga Ilinichna Stankova Pdf

The paper provides an overall view of communications across various areas of economic policy, aiming to help country authorities as they increasingly use communications as a policy tool in its own right. The paper identifies frontier communications challenges, drawing on a large body of research on the salient issues. Although communications can never be a substitute for good policies, economic reforms are more likely to fail or even be reversed if they are not understood or accepted by those whom they affect.

Preparing for the Next Financial Crisis

Esa Jokivuolle,Radu Tunaru
Preparing for the Next Financial Crisis Book PDF

Author : Esa Jokivuolle,Radu Tunaru
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 205 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2017-11-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781107185593

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Preparing for the Next Financial Crisis by Esa Jokivuolle,Radu Tunaru Pdf

This book uses perspectives of finance and banking to offer predictions on future financial crises, and how we can prepare for them.