Progress In Utility And Risk Theory

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Progress in Utility and Risk Theory

G.M. Hagen,Fred Wenstøp
Progress in Utility and Risk Theory Book PDF

Author : G.M. Hagen,Fred Wenstøp
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 282 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789400963511

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Progress in Utility and Risk Theory by G.M. Hagen,Fred Wenstøp Pdf

1. PROGRESS IN UTILITY AND RISK THEORY At the First International Congress of Utility and Risk Theory in Oslo 1982 (FUR-82) it appeared to be a widespread feeling among the participants that the conference signalled something like a paradigm shift in the field. This does not necessarily mean that old truths were discarded and replaced by new ones, but rather that new theories and new empirical evidence were brought forth, compelling old theories to be critically analyzed from new angels. Some of the papers presented at FUR-82 have been published by Reidel in 1983 in a volume edited by Stigum and Wenst0p. The present volume contains com mentaries on a number of the papers presented at the conference together with broader outlines of current views on the theory. The observation that utility and risk theory now appears to be in a state of rapid change has prompted us to choose the title PROGRESS IN UTILITY AND RISK THEORY for the book, in the belief that science always moves from poorer to more advanced paradigms or from weaker to more forceful theories. In other words, change is usually progress, even though intermediate stages in a para digm shift may be bewildering, to say the least.

Progress In Decision, Utility And Risk Theory

Attila Chikán,József Kindler,István Kiss,Doris Ostrusska
Progress In Decision Utility And Risk Theory Book PDF

Author : Attila Chikán,József Kindler,István Kiss,Doris Ostrusska
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 356 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789401131469

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Progress In Decision, Utility And Risk Theory by Attila Chikán,József Kindler,István Kiss,Doris Ostrusska Pdf

In this volume we present some of the papers delivered at FUR-IV - the Fourth International Conference on Founda tions and Applications of Utility, Risk and Decision Theory in Budapest, June 1988. The FUR Conferences have provided an appreciated forum every two years since 1982 within which scientists can report recent issues and prospective applications of decision theory, and exchange ideas about controversial questions of this field. Focal points of the presented papers are: expected utility versus alterna tive utility models, concepts of risk and uncertainty, developments of game theory, and investigations of real decision making behaviour under uncertainty and/or in risky situations. We hope that this sample of papers will appeal to a wide spectrum of readers who are interested in and fami liar with this interesting and exciting issues of decision theory. A wide range of theoretical and practical questions is considered in papers included in this volume, and many of them closely related to economics. In fact, there were two Nobel-Laureates in economics among the participants: I. Herbert A. Simon (1978) and Maurice Allais (1988), who won the prize just after the conference. His paper deals with problems of cardinal utility. After a concise overview of the history and theory of cardinal utility he gives an estimate of the invariant cardinal utility function for its whole domain of variation (i. e.

Recent Developments in the Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory

L. Daboni,Aldo M. Montesano,M. Lines
Recent Developments in the Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory Book PDF

Author : L. Daboni,Aldo M. Montesano,M. Lines
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 402 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789400946163

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Recent Developments in the Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory by L. Daboni,Aldo M. Montesano,M. Lines Pdf

The Second International Conference on Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory was held in Venice, June 1984. This volume presents some of the papers delivered at FUR-84. (The First International Conference, FUR-82, was held in Oslo and some of the papers presented on that occasion were published by Reidel in the volume Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications, edited by Bernt P. Stigum and Fred Wenst~p). The theory of choice under uncertainty involves a vast range of controversial issues in many fields like economics, philosophy, psychology, mathematics and statistics. The idea of discussing these problems in international conferences has been successful: two conferences have been held and others will follow. The climate of the debate has changed in the meantime, partly as a result of these conferences. It is no more only a question of attacking or defending the neo-Bernoullian assumptions, but also of proposing wider generalizations and including new elements in the analysis of the decision process. For instance Amartya Sen - comparing the two current notions of rationality, internal consistency and self-interest pursuit introduces the concept of reasoning and considers the irrationality which may result from the failure of a positive correspondence between reasoning and choice or from a limited capacity of reasoning. Rationality is also considered with respect to the controversial axiom of strong independence. John C. Harsanyi introduces the concept of practical certainty, i. e.

The Economics of Risk and Time

Christian Gollier
The Economics of Risk and Time Book PDF

Author : Christian Gollier
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 492 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2001
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0262572249

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The Economics of Risk and Time by Christian Gollier Pdf

Updates and advances the theory of expected utility as applied to risk analysis and financial decision making.

Experiments on Decisions under Risk: The Expected Utility Hypothesis

P.J.H. Schoemaker
Experiments on Decisions under Risk The Expected Utility Hypothesis Book PDF

Author : P.J.H. Schoemaker
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 228 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2013-11-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789401750400

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Experiments on Decisions under Risk: The Expected Utility Hypothesis by P.J.H. Schoemaker Pdf

In this valuable book, Paul Schoemaker summarizes recent experimental and field research that he and others have undertaken regarding the descrip tive validity of expected utility theory as a model of choice under uncer tainty. His principal message is that this paradigm is too narrow in its con ception and misses some of the important elements of a descriptive model of individual choice. In particular, Schoemaker calls attention to the impor tance of individual differences, task effects, and context effects as they influence behavior. The expected utility hypothesis has come under scrutiny in recent years from a number of different quarters. This book brings together these many studies and relates them to the large body of literature on individual de cision making under risk. Although this paradigm may be appropriate for describing behavior under many conditions of uncertainty, Schoemaker presents convincing evidence that it does not do well with respect to protec tion against low-probability events. For example, he shows that the insur ance purchase decision is influenced by the way information is presented to the client, as well as by the statistical knowledge of the respondents.

Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

Mohammed Abdellaoui,John D. Hey
Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Mohammed Abdellaoui,John D. Hey
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 245 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2008-08-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783540684367

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Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty by Mohammed Abdellaoui,John D. Hey Pdf

Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.

Expected Utility Hypotheses and the Allais Paradox

M. Allais,G.M. Hagen
Expected Utility Hypotheses and the Allais Paradox Book PDF

Author : M. Allais,G.M. Hagen
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 706 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2013-03-14
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789401576291

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Expected Utility Hypotheses and the Allais Paradox by M. Allais,G.M. Hagen Pdf

Utility theory or, value theory in general, is certainly the cornerstone of decision theory, game theory, microecon~mics, and all social and political theories which deal with public decisions. Recently the American School of utility, founded by von N eumann Morgenstern, encountered a far-going criticism by the French School of utility represented by its founder Allais. The whole basis of the theory of decisions involving risk has been shaken and put into question. Consequently, basic research in the fundamentals of utility and value theory evolved into a crisis. Like any crisis in basic research, and this one was not an exception, it was very fruitful. One may simply say: Allais versus von Neumann-Morgenstern, or the French School of utility versus the American School, became one of the battlefields of scientific development which proved to be a most creative source of new advances and new developments in all those sciences which are based on evaluation of utilities.

Risky Curves

Daniel Friedman,R. Mark Isaac,Duncan James,Shyam Sunder
Risky Curves Book PDF

Author : Daniel Friedman,R. Mark Isaac,Duncan James,Shyam Sunder
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 171 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2014-02-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317821236

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Risky Curves by Daniel Friedman,R. Mark Isaac,Duncan James,Shyam Sunder Pdf

For several decades, the orthodox economics approach to understanding choice under risk has been to assume that each individual person maximizes some sort of personal utility function defined over purchasing power. This new volume contests that even the best wisdom from the orthodox theory has not yet been able to do better than supposedly naïve models that use rules of thumb, or that focus on the consumption possibilities and economic constraints facing the individual. The authors assert this by first revisiting the origins of orthodox theory. They then recount decades of failed attempts to obtain meaningful empirical validation or calibration of the theory. Estimated shapes and parameters of the "curves" have varied erratically from domain to domain (e.g., individual choice versus aggregate behavior), from context to context, from one elicitation mechanism to another, and even from the same individual at different time periods, sometimes just minutes apart. This book proposes the return to a simpler sort of scientific theory of risky choice, one that focuses not upon unobservable curves but rather upon the potentially observable opportunities and constraints facing decision makers. It argues that such an opportunities-based model offers superior possibilities for scientific advancement. At the very least, linear utility – in the presence of constraints - is a useful bar for the "curved" alternatives to clear.

Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications

Bernt P. Stigum,Fred Wenstop
Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications Book PDF

Author : Bernt P. Stigum,Fred Wenstop
Publisher : Springer
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2010-12-25
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9048183642

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Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications by Bernt P. Stigum,Fred Wenstop Pdf

In this volume we present some o~ the papers that were delivered at FUR-82 - the First International Con~erence on Foundations o~ Utility and Risk Theory in Oslo, June 1982. The purpose o~ the con~erence was to provide a ~orum within which scientists could report on interesting applications o~ modern decision theory and exchange ideas about controversial issues in the ~oundations o~ the theory o~ choice under un certainty. With that purpose in mind we have selected a mixture of applied and theoretical papers that we hope will appeal to a wide spectrum o~ readers ~rom graduate students in social science departments and business schools to people involved in making hardheaded decisions in business and government. In an introductory article Ole Hagen gives an overview o~ various paradoxes in utility and risk theory and discusses these in the light o~ scientific methodology. He concludes the article by calling ~or joint efforts to provide decision makers with warkable theories. Kenneth Arrow takes up the same issue on a broad basis in his paper where he discusses the implications o~ behavior under uncertainty for policy. In the theoretical papers the reader will ~ind attempts at de~initive Statements of the meaning o~ old concepts and suggestions for the adoption o~ new concepts. For instance, Maurice Allais discusses four di~ferent interpretations o~ the axioms o~ probability and explains the need ~or an empirical characterization o~ the concept of chance.

Advances in Public Economics: Utility, Choice and Welfare

Ulrich U. Schmidt,Stefan Traub
Advances in Public Economics Utility Choice and Welfare Book PDF

Author : Ulrich U. Schmidt,Stefan Traub
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 333 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2006-06-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780387257068

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Advances in Public Economics: Utility, Choice and Welfare by Ulrich U. Schmidt,Stefan Traub Pdf

This Festschrift in honor ofChristian Seidl combines a group of prominent authors who are experts in areas like public economics, welfare economic, decision theory, and experimental economics in a unique volume. Christian Seidl who has edited together with Salvador Barber` a ` and Peter Hammond the Handbook of Utility Theory (appearing at Kluwer Academic Publishers/Springer Economics), has dedicated most of his research to utility and decision theory, social choice theory, welfare economics, and public economics. During the last decade, he has turned part of his attention to a research tool that is increasingly gaining in importance in economics: the laboratory experiment. This volume is an attempt to illuminate all facets of Christian Seidl’s ambitious research agenda by presenting a collection of both theoretical and expe- mental papers on Utility,Choice,andWelfare written by his closest friends, former students, and much valued colleagues. Christian Seidl was born on August 5, 1940, in Vienna, Austria. Beginning Winter term 1962/63, he studied Economics and Business Administration at the Vienna School of Economics (then “Hochschule fff ̈ ur ̈ Welthandel”). 1966 he was awarded an MBA by the Vienna School of Economics and 1969 a doctoral degree in Economics. In October 1968 Christian became a research assistant at the Institute of Economics at the University of Vienna. 1973 he acquired his habilitation (right to teach) in Economics — supervised by Wilhelm Weber — from the Department of Law and Economics of the University of Vienna. He was awarded the Dr.

Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice

Jean-Paul Chavas
Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice Book PDF

Author : Jean-Paul Chavas
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 258 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2004-06-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780121706210

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Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice by Jean-Paul Chavas Pdf

The objective of Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice is to present this analytical framework and to illustrate how it can be used in the investigation of economic decisions under risk. In a sense, the economics of risk is a difficult subject: it involves understanding human decisions in the absence of perfect information. How do we make decisions when we do not know some of events affecting us? The complexities of our uncertain world and of how humans obtain and process information make this difficult. In spite of these difficulties, much progress has been made. First, probability theory is the corner stone of risk assessment. This allows us to measure risk in a fashion that can be communicated among decision makers or researchers. Second, risk preferences are now better understood. This provides useful insights into the economic rationality of decision making under uncertainty. Third, over the last decades, good insights have been developed about the value of information. This helps better understand the role of information in human decision making and this book provides a systematic treatment of these issues in the context of both private and public decisions under uncertainty. Balanced treatment of conceptual models and applied analysis Considers both private and public decisions under uncertainty Website presents application exercises in Excel

Non-Expected Utility and Risk Management

Christian Gollier,Mark J. Machina
Non Expected Utility and Risk Management Book PDF

Author : Christian Gollier,Mark J. Machina
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 147 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2013-03-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789401724401

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Non-Expected Utility and Risk Management by Christian Gollier,Mark J. Machina Pdf

Expected utility provides simple, testable properties of the optimum behavior that should be displayed by risk-averse individuals in risky decisions. Simultaneously, given the existence of paradoxes under the expected utility paradigm, expected utility can only be regarded as an approximation of actual behavior. A more realistic model is needed. This is particularly true when treating attitudes toward small probability events: the standard situation for insurable risks. Non-Expected Utility and Risk Management examines whether the existing results in insurance economics are robust to more general models of behavior under risk.

Revolutionary Changes in Understanding Man and Society

Johann Götschl
Revolutionary Changes in Understanding Man and Society Book PDF

Author : Johann Götschl
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9789401103695

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Revolutionary Changes in Understanding Man and Society by Johann Götschl Pdf

JOHANN GOTSCHL Over the last decades, social philosophers, economists. sociologists, utility and game theorists, biologists, mathematicians, moral philosophers and philosophers have created totally new concepts and methods of understanding the function and role of humans in their modern societies. The years between 1953 and 1990 brought drastic changes in the scientific foundations and dynamic of today's society. A burst of entirely new, revolutionary ideas, similar to those which heralded the beginning of the twentieth century in physics, dominates the picture. This book also discusses the ongoing refutation of old concepts in the social sciences. Some of them are: the traditional concepts ofrationality, for example, based on maximization of interests, the linearity of axiomatic methods, methodological individualism, and the concept of a static society. Today the revolutionary change from a static view of our society to an evolutionary one reverberates through all social sciences and will dominate the twenty-first century. In an uncertain and risky world where cooperation and teamwork is getting more and more important, one cannot any longer call the maximization of one's own expectations of utility or interests "rational" .

Risk, Uncertainty and Profit

Frank H. Knight
Risk Uncertainty and Profit Book PDF

Author : Frank H. Knight
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
Page : 401 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2006-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781602060050

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Risk, Uncertainty and Profit by Frank H. Knight Pdf

A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Cardinalism

M. Allais,O. Hagen
Cardinalism Book PDF

Author : M. Allais,O. Hagen
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 317 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9789401108881

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Cardinalism by M. Allais,O. Hagen Pdf

THE CONCEPTION OF THIS VOLUME This volume, Cardinalism, has been initiated by Ole Hagen, and is now published due to his perseverance and to Kluwer Academic Publishers. Because of various activities and duties, my contribution to the general conception of this volume has only been formal, and all the credit for it is due to Ole Hagen. I should also emphasize that the responsibility for the year's delay in the publishing of this volume is entirely mine, for two reasons. First of all, I have been involved in many works in very different fields. Second, the English translation of my 1943 contribution to the concept of cardinal utility took some time. The points of view the reader will find in this volume are often different and sometimes contradictory, but this can only increase the interest of its reading. In any case, this is not the editors' part to side with or against. Thus contributions to this volume are presented as they have been submit ted to the editors. Of course, this does not mean that they entirely agree with the analyses presented. MAURICE ALLAIS M. Allais and O. Hagen (eds.), Cardinalism, vii INTRODUCTION Everyone's conscious choices are assumed to reflect their preferences in different situations. For some purposes it serves the theorist's preference for simplicity to assume that a person's life style can be described by the values of some concrete variables, such as quantities of goods available.