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Scarcity and Growth Considering Oil and Energy by Douglas Bradford Reynolds Pdf
Reynolds (economics, U. of Alaska Fairbanks) presents 11 chapters, many previously published, offering theories about scarcity in oil resources that contradict Morse's Scarcity and Growth (1963) and Stiglitz's Scarcity and Growth reconsidered (1979). A key question in the debate over scarcity is if oil prices have gone down over the course of the past century, than that should indicate technology has triumphed over scarcity. Reynolds argues that price and costs do not indicate decreasing scarcity, and he explains scarcity using the idea of "bonanza" proposed by Georgescu-Rogen and the "Mayflower problem" espoused by Norgaard, as well as Hubbert's oil logistics curve (previously ignored by many of the economists dealing with scarcity). Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR.
Physical Limits to Economic Growth by Roberto Burlando,Angelo Tartaglia Pdf
The debate on the physical limits and constraints to the economic growth of globalized society is now widespread. This book explores the physical and economic aspects of the conflict between humans, with their thoughtless focus on growth through material production, and environmental constraints. In the context of the looming shortage of material resources and the latest science on climate change, Physical Limits to Economic Growth offers new insights which provide a broad and comprehensive picture of the conflict between humans and environmental constraints. The authors’ approach goes beyond the boundaries of specialized disciplines to explore climate change, resource depletion, technical innovation and the interactions between these within the socio-economic-institutional systems we live in. This volume looks at opportunities for rethinking these systems if we moved away from fossil fuel dependence, while considering the status of current mainstream economic thinking around this subject. Physical Limits to Economic Growth provides a genuine interdisciplinary examination of the physical limits to economic growth. It will be of interest to both students and academics in various disciplines in the areas of natural sciences, climate change and economics.
Oil and the World Economy by Mr.Michael Kumhof,Mr.Dirk Muir Pdf
This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, GDP growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult.
The Future of Oil by Mr.Jaromir Benes,Ms.Marcelle Chauvet,Mr.Ondrej Kamenik,Mr.Michael Kumhof,Mr.Douglas Laxton,Susanna Mursula,Mr.Jack G. Selody Pdf
We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil output and prices. It is supported by the fact that world oil production has plateaued since 2005 despite historically high prices, and that spare capacity has been near historic lows. The technological view of oil expects that higher oil prices must eventually have a decisive effect on oil output, by encouraging technological solutions. It is supported by the fact that high prices have, since 2003, led to upward revisions in production forecasts based on a purely geological view. We present a nonlinear econometric model of the world oil market that encompasses both views. The model performs far better than existing empirical models in forecasting oil prices and oil output out of sample. Its point forecast is for a near doubling of the real price of oil over the coming decade. The error bands are wide, and reflect sharply differing judgments on ultimately recoverable reserves, and on future price elasticities of oil demand and supply.
America’s Most Sustainable Cities and Regions by John W. Day,Charles Hall Pdf
This book takes you on a unique journey through American history, taking time to consider the forces that shaped the development of various cities and regions, and arrives at an unexpected conclusion regarding sustainability. From the American Dream to globalization to the digital and information revolutions, we assume that humans have taken control of our collective destinies in spite of potholes in the road such as the Great Recession of 2007-2009. However, these attitudes were formed during a unique 100-year period of human history in which a large but finite supply of fossil fuels was tapped to feed our economic and innovation engine. Today, at the peak of the Oil Age, the horizon looks different. Cities such as Los Angeles, Phoenix and Las Vegas are situated where water and other vital ecological services are scarce, and the enormous flows of resources and energy that were needed to create the megalopolises of the 20th century will prove unsustainable. Climate change is a reality, and regional impacts will become increasingly severe. Economies such as Las Vegas, which are dependent on discretionary income and buffeted by climate change, are already suffering the fate of the proverbial canary in the coal mine. Finite resources will mean profound changes for society in general and the energy-intensive lifestyles of the US and Canada in particular. But not all regions are equally vulnerable to these 21st-century megatrends. Are you ready to look beyond “America’s Most Livable Cities” to the critical factors that will determine the sustainability of your municipality and region? Find out where your city or region ranks according to the forces that will impact our lives in the next years and decades. Find out how: ·resource availability and ecological services shaped the modern landscape ·emerging megatrends will make cities and regions more or less livable in the new century ·your city or region ranks on a “sustainability” map of the United States ·urban metabolism puts large cities at particular risk ·sustainability factors will favor economic solutions at a local, rather than global, level ·these principles apply to industrial economies and countries globally. This book should be cited as follows: J. Day, C. Hall, E. Roy, M. Moersbaecher, C. D'Elia, D. Pimentel, and A. Yanez. 2016. America's most sustainable cities and regions: Surviving the 21st century megatrends. Springer, New York. 348 p.
World Economic Outlook, April 2011 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf
The April 2011 edition of the World Economic Outlook assesses the global prospects for economic growth in the face of policy challenges that remain unaddressed and new challenges now coming to the fore.The recovery is gaining strength, but unemployment remains high in advanced economies, and new macroeconomic risks are building in emerging market economies. In advanced economies, the handoff from public to private demand is advancing, reducing concerns that diminishing fiscal policy support might cause a “double-dip” recession. Financial conditions continue to improve, although they remain unusually fragile. In many emerging market economies, demand is robust and overheating is a growing policy concern. Rising food and commodities prices present new risks to the global economy. Two chapters directly explore these new challenges. Chapter 3 reviews the potential impact of oil scarcity on global growth, and Chapter 4 explores the potential response of international capital flows to changes in the global macroeconomic environment.
The Future Is Not What It Used to Be by Jörg Friedrichs Pdf
"In this book, Jörg Friedrichs argues that industrial society itself is transitory, and he examines the prospects for our civilization's coming to terms with its two most imminent choke points: climate change and energy scarcity. He offers a thorough and accessible account of these two challenges as well as the linkages between them. Friedrichs contends that industrial civilization cannot outlast our ability to burn fossil fuels and that the demise of industrial society would entail cataclysmic change, including population decreases."--Publisher's description.
United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee. Subcommittee on Priorities and Economy in Government
Author : United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee. Subcommittee on Priorities and Economy in Government Publisher : Unknown Page : 196 pages File Size : 52,5 Mb Release : 1974 Category : Economic development ISBN : UOM:39015081259197
Resource Scarcity, Economic Growth, and the Environment by United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee. Subcommittee on Priorities and Economy in Government Pdf
The Political Economy of World Energy by Ferdinand E. Banks Pdf
This easy-to-read book presents an elementary yet comprehensive introduction to modern energy economics. Mathematical content is kept to a minimum, and advanced numerical concepts are placed in appendices. The two survey chapters are suitable for readers with little or no formal training in economics. Differing greatly from other energy textbooks, the book aims to provide the reader with an informed advantage. Principally intended as a textbook for undergraduate economics students, it can also be used for self-study or as a reference material.
Today’s global energy system faces two major challenges: how to secure the supply of reliable and affordable energy; and how to rapidly transform to a low-carbon, efficient and environmentally harmless energy supply. In this rigorous and illuminating book, Michael Bradshaw explores the key aspects of the current global energy dilemma and examines how it is playing out across the major regions and countries of the world. The book begins by charting the development of the current global energy system - exploring its key characteristics with a focus upon energy security and the relationship between energy, economic development and climate change. The next four chapters offer in-depth analyses of four distinct global energy dilemmas in different parts of the world: the challenge of sustaining affluence and decarbonising energy services in the high-energy economies of the developed world; the legacies of the centrally planned economy and the consequences of liberalisation in the post-socialist world; growing energy demand and emissions growth associated with the emerging regions; and finally, the quest to provide universal access to modern energy services in the developing world in a manner that is both economically and environmentally sustainable. Identifying the governance structures and policy options available to tackle the global energy dilemma, the book concludes that only an integrated approach - sensitive to regional issues - can reconcile the interests and needs of those facing differing energy challenges across the world today.