Short Term Forecasting

Author : Antonio Gabaldón,María Carmen Ruiz-Abellón,Luis Alfredo Fernández-Jiménez
Publisher : MDPI
Page : 324 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2021-02-26
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783039434428

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Short-Term Load Forecasting 2019 by Antonio Gabaldón,María Carmen Ruiz-Abellón,Luis Alfredo Fernández-Jiménez Pdf

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a key role in the formulation of economic, reliable, and secure operating strategies (planning, scheduling, maintenance, and control processes, among others) for a power system and will be significant in the future. However, there is still much to do in these research areas. The deployment of enabling technologies (e.g., smart meters) has made high-granularity data available for many customer segments and to approach many issues, for instance, to make forecasting tasks feasible at several demand aggregation levels. The first challenge is the improvement of STLF models and their performance at new aggregation levels. Moreover, the mix of renewables in the power system, and the necessity to include more flexibility through demand response initiatives have introduced greater uncertainties, which means new challenges for STLF in a more dynamic power system in the 2030–50 horizon. Many techniques have been proposed and applied for STLF, including traditional statistical models and AI techniques. Besides, distribution planning needs, as well as grid modernization, have initiated the development of hierarchical load forecasting. Analogously, the need to face new sources of uncertainty in the power system is giving more importance to probabilistic load forecasting. This Special Issue deals with both fundamental research and practical application research on STLF methodologies to face the challenges of a more distributed and customer-centered power system.

Author : G. A. Coutie
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 52 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 1966
Category : Business forecasting
ISBN : UCAL:B4127689

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Short-term Forecasting by G. A. Coutie Pdf

Author : Filippo Maria Bianchi,Enrico Maiorino,Michael C. Kampffmeyer,Antonello Rizzi,Robert Jenssen
Publisher : Springer
Page : 72 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2017-11-09
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783319703381

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Recurrent Neural Networks for Short-Term Load Forecasting by Filippo Maria Bianchi,Enrico Maiorino,Michael C. Kampffmeyer,Antonello Rizzi,Robert Jenssen Pdf

The key component in forecasting demand and consumption of resources in a supply network is an accurate prediction of real-valued time series. Indeed, both service interruptions and resource waste can be reduced with the implementation of an effective forecasting system. Significant research has thus been devoted to the design and development of methodologies for short term load forecasting over the past decades. A class of mathematical models, called Recurrent Neural Networks, are nowadays gaining renewed interest among researchers and they are replacing many practical implementations of the forecasting systems, previously based on static methods. Despite the undeniable expressive power of these architectures, their recurrent nature complicates their understanding and poses challenges in the training procedures. Recently, new important families of recurrent architectures have emerged and their applicability in the context of load forecasting has not been investigated completely yet. This work performs a comparative study on the problem of Short-Term Load Forecast, by using different classes of state-of-the-art Recurrent Neural Networks. The authors test the reviewed models first on controlled synthetic tasks and then on different real datasets, covering important practical cases of study. The text also provides a general overview of the most important architectures and defines guidelines for configuring the recurrent networks to predict real-valued time series.

Author : G. A. Coutie,O. L. Davies
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 36 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 1967
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:631255320

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Short-term forecasting by G. A. Coutie,O. L. Davies Pdf

Author : Michael Arthur Firth
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 164 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 1976
Category : Economics
ISBN : IND:30000113433043

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Management of Working Capital by Michael Arthur Firth Pdf

Author : Thomas M. O'Donovan
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 322 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 1983
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : STANFORD:36105032818713

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Short Term Forecasting by Thomas M. O'Donovan Pdf

Author : Mohamed E. El-Hawary
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 324 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2017-07-12
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781118171349

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Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems by Mohamed E. El-Hawary Pdf

A comprehensive review of state-of-the-art approaches to power systems forecasting from the most respected names in the field, internationally Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is the first book devoted exclusively to a subject of increasing urgency to power systems planning and operations. Written for practicing engineers, researchers, and post-grads concerned with power systems planning and forecasting, this book brings together contributions from many of the world’s foremost names in the field who address a range of critical issues, from forecasting power system load to power system pricing to post-storm service restoration times, river flow forecasting, and more. In a time of ever-increasing energy demands, mounting concerns over the environmental impacts of power generation, and the emergence of new, smart-grid technologies, electricity price forecasting has assumed a prominent role within both the academic and industrial arenas. Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every maximization strategy. This book fills a gap in the literature on this increasingly important topic. Following an introductory chapter offering background information necessary for a full understanding of the forecasting issues covered, this book: Introduces advanced methods of time series forecasting, as well as neural networks Provides in-depth coverage of state-of-the-art power system load forecasting and electricity price forecasting Addresses river flow forecasting based on autonomous neural network models Deals with price forecasting in a competitive market Includes estimation of post-storm restoration times for electric power distribution systems Features contributions from world-renowned experts sharing their insights and expertise in a series of self-contained chapters Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is a valuable resource for practicing engineers, regulators, planners, and consultants working in or concerned with the electric power industry. It is also a must read for senior undergraduates, graduate students, and researchers involved in power system planning and operation.

Author : United States. General Accounting Office
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 80 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 1991
Category : Agriculture
ISBN : STANFORD:36105119600547

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Short-term Forecasting by United States. General Accounting Office Pdf

Author : Ltd Imperial Chemical Industries
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 1964
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1417523223

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Short-term Forecasting by Ltd Imperial Chemical Industries Pdf

Author : Alan R. Bohne
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 106 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 1988
Category : Cloud forecasting
ISBN : UOM:39015095142405

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Short Term Forecasting of Cloud and Precipitation by Alan R. Bohne Pdf

A methodology for real-time operations has been developed for the short-term forecasting of cloud and precipitation fields. Pattern recognition techniques are employed to extract useful features from the data field and extrapolation techniques are used to project these features into the future. To reduce computational load, contours defined by directional codes are used to delineate features. These contours are subdivided and attributes such as length, location, and location of each segment are determined. Segment matching is performed for successive observations and attribute changes are monitored over time. Several techniques for the forecasting of attributes have been explored, and an exponential smoothing filter and a linear trend adaptive smoothing filter have been chosen as most appropriate. Currently analysis is performed on a minicomputer and image processor system utilizing radar reflectivity data. Refinement of these techniques and extension into a more comprehensive short term forecasting program is planned.

Author : Arno Palmrich
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
Page : 80 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2009-09-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783640435869

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Time Series Models for Short-Term Forecasting Performance Indicators by Arno Palmrich Pdf

Diploma Thesis from the year 2007 in the subject Business economics - Business Management, Corporate Governance, grade: highest grade (ausgezeichnet), University of Applied Sciences Kufstein Tirol, course: Economics Statistics, language: English, abstract: Managers use forecasting in budgeting time and resources. In this thesis, various advanced time series models are constructed, computed and tested for adequacy. This thesis serves as a practical guide to regression and time series analysis. It seeks to demonstrate how to approach problems according to scientific standards to students who are familiar with SPSS® but beginners in regression and time series analysis. Bibliographic notes of classical works and more recent academic advances in time series analysis are provided throughout the text. The research question that this thesis seeks to answer can be formulated in its shortest version as: “How can the management of Dalian Chemson Chemical Products Co; Ltd. use existing company data to make short-term predictions about net sales, Cost of Goods Sold (COGS), and net contribution?” More specifically, this thesis seeks to provide different tools (models) for forecasting the P&L entries net sales, COGS, and net contribution a few months ahead. This author’s approach is based on various versions of two models: One model will forecast net sales and the other model will predict COGS. The expected net contribution is simply defined as the difference between the predictions of these two models. In chapter 4.3 an ordinary least squares regression version of the two models has been computed. In chapter 4.6 a weighted least squares regression has been applied to the models. Autoregressions have been computed in chapter 4.7.1 and two Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) versions have been constructed in chapter 4.7.6. The various versions of the models have then been compared against each other. The version that fits the data best will be used in forecasting. The statistical models in this thesis are computed using SPSS BaseTM, SPSS Regression ModelsTM and SPSS TrendsTM, versions 11.5.0. Each of the model versions constructed herein can be applied in a simple Excel spreadsheet. In the last chapter, a one-step-ahead forecast is produced via the in this thesis developed concept which consists of the most precise versions of the models to forecast net sales and COGS. The forecasting concept developed in this thesis is good in that it produces precise forecasts. Its simplified framework minimizes the effort and expertise required to obtain predictions.

Author : Rob J Hyndman,George Athanasopoulos
Publisher : OTexts
Page : 380 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2018-05-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780987507112

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Forecasting: principles and practice by Rob J Hyndman,George Athanasopoulos Pdf

Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Author : Mr.Michael J. Artis
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 94 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 1996-08-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451851250

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How Accurate Are the Imf's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook by Mr.Michael J. Artis Pdf

This paper analyzes the short-term forecasts for industrial and developing countries produced by the International Monetary Fund, and published twice a year in the World Economic Outlook (WEO). For the industrial country group, the WEO forecasts for output growth and inflation are satisfactory and pass most conventional tests in forecasting economic developments, although forecast accuracy has not improved over time, and predicting the turning points of the business cycle remains a weakness. For the developing countries, the task of forecasting movements in economic activity is even more difficult and the conventional measures of forecast accuracy are less satisfactory than for the industrial countries.

Author : B. Mahadevan
Publisher : Pearson Education India
Page : 612 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2009
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 8177585649

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Operation Management by B. Mahadevan Pdf

Author : George Polanyi
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 102 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 1973
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UOM:39015030458908

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Short-term Forecasting by George Polanyi Pdf