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Solar Flare Prediction by C. Sawyer,James W. Warwick,J. T. Dennett Pdf
This study looked at observational and theoretical studies of flare physics, at quests for flare precursors, and at mathematical models for combining masses of predictive information. We also looked at the worldwide effort to gather and share timely data and combine it with knowledge and experience to forecast solar flares and their effects. Topics include: Long-lived, large-scale magnetic and velocity fields; Magnetic-energy buildup in an active region; Flare initiation; Flare precursors -- Filament activation, Preflare brightening, Magnetic shear, and Emerging and cancelling magnetic flux; Quantitative prediction; Operational solar flare prediction; Forecast evaluation.
The Influence of Radio Brightness Temperature on Solar Flare Prediction by Alfred E. Reilly Pdf
An objective technique based on two measured parameters has been developed to determine the probability of occurrence of a solar flare near a sunspot group. The parameters utilized were the size of each sunspot group and the magnitude of an associated radio brightness temperature. Flare, sunspot, and radio data measured daily during the period from April 1962 through October 1966 were used in the study. These data were associated objectively and analyzed statistically. The size of a sunspot group is a significant predictor in itself. This analysis shows that consideration of radio brightness temperature significantly improves the accuracy of solar flare prediction beyond the accuracy that can be achieved by considering only the size of the sunspot group. (Author).
An Objective Baseline for Flare Prediction by Ronald T. Podsiadlo Pdf
The relationship between various measurable solar parameters and solar-flare occurrence is examined utilizing a comprehensive solar-geophysical data base containing a variety of objectively-correlated solar measurements. The sample covers the period from January 1955 through February 1968 and includes such parameters as solar flares, sunspots, magnetic fields of sunspots, calcium plages and 9.1 cm radio brightness temperatures. A statistical analysis was performed to determine the parameters most useful for the prediction of solar flares 24 hours in advance. Persistence was identified as the single most important flare predictor, with sunspot magnetic classification, 9.1 cm radio brightness temperature, plage brightness and sunspot area also selected as useful predictors. Objective flare probability prediction equations were developed that incorporate all useful predictors simultaneously. (Author).
Solar-Terrestrial Environmental Prediction by Kanya Kusano Pdf
Powerful solar explosions, such as flares and coronal mass ejections, greatly disturb the electromagnetic environment around the Earth and the atmosphere. They may even impact various social systems—communications, positioning, electric power supply, aviation and activities in space. Such variations in the space environment, which can influence human activities, are called “space weather.” The space weather disaster caused by a solar explosion is a potential risk in modern society. To reduce and mitigate space weather impacts, it is essential to understand the structure and dynamics of the solar–terrestrial environment and to predict the variations. This book comprehensively describes space weather, from the basics of related sciences to the possible social impacts. It was compiled based on a national research project on solar–terrestrial environment prediction conducted in Japan recently. It consists of four parts: the linkage between space weather and society; the magnetosphere of the Earth and space weather prediction; solar storms and space weather prediction; and long-term prediction of solar cycle activity and climate impacts. Each chapter covers the basics and applications of each area, which helps readers gain a broad understanding of the subject matter throughout the book. In addition, readers are able to select and read the topics they are most interested in. It is especially valuable for undergraduate and graduate students and young researchers studying space weather and related topics, and is further helpful for experts in various industries related to space weather disasters. The translation was done with the help of artificial intelligence (machine translation by the service DeepL.com). The present version has been revised technically and linguistically by the authors in collaboration with a professional translator.
