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Sovereign Credit Ratings Methodology: an Evaluation by Ashok Vir Bhatia Pdf
This paper describes and evaluates the sovereign credit ratings methodologies of Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service, and Fitch Ratings. A simple definition of ratings failure-based on ratings stability-is proposed and tested, pointing to falling failure rates, consistent upside bias, and strong interagency correlation. Possible causes of ratings failure are separated into informational, analytical, revenue bias, and other incentive problems, each of which is discussed. The paper seeks to highlight methodological developments after the Asian crisis, particularly with regard to the estimation of contingent liabilities and the assessment of international reserves adequacy.
The current degradation of sovereign balance sheets raises very real concerns about how sovereign creditworthiness is measured by credit rating agencies. Given the disastrous economic and social effects of any downgrade, the book offers an alternative and calls for more transparency about the quantitative measures used in calibrating the rating process and how sovereign ratings are validated. It argues that oversight is required and procedures improved, including subjecting methodologies of assessing default to more standardization and monitoring. Sovereign Credit Rating explains the process of sovereign creditworthiness assessment and explores the consequences of possible inaccuracies in the process. Developing an innovative new methodology to assess ratings accuracy, it shows that the announcement of each rating action by the major credit rating agencies show alarming inconsistencies. Written by an internationally recognized author and professor, this unique book will be of interest to researchers and advanced students in corporate governance, accounting, public finance and regulation.
A Century of Sovereign Ratings by Norbert Gaillard Pdf
The financial difficulties experienced by Greece since 2009 serve as a reminder that countries (i.e., sovereigns) may default on their debt. Many observers considered the financial turmoil was behind us because major advanced countries had adopted stimulus packages to prevent banks from going bankrupt. However, there are rising doubts about the creditworthiness of several advanced countries that participated in the bailouts. In this uncertain context, it is particularly crucial to be knowledgeable about sovereign ratings. This book provides the necessary broad overview, which will be of interest to both economists and investors alike. Chapter 1 presents the main issues that are addressed in this book. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 provide the key notions to understand sovereign ratings. Chapter 2 presents an overview of sovereign rating activity since the first such ratings were assigned in 1918. Chapter 3 analyzes the meaning of sovereign ratings and the significance of rating scales; it also describes the refinement of credit rating policies and tools. Chapter 4 focuses on the sovereign rating process. Chapters 5 and 6 open the black box of sovereign ratings. Chapter 5 compares sovereign rating methodologies in the interwar years with those in the modern era. After examining how rating agencies have amended their methodologies since the 1990s, Chapter 6 scrutinizes rating disagreements between credit rating agencies (CRAs). Chapters 7 and 8 measure the performances of sovereign ratings by computing default rates and accuracy ratios: Chapter 7 looks at the interwar years and Chapter 8 at the modern era. The two chapters assess which CRA assigns the most accurate ratings during the respective periods. Chapters 9 and 10 compare the perception of sovereign risk by the CRAs and market participants. Chapter 9 focuses on the relation between JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global spreads and emerging countries’ sovereign ratings for the period 1993–2007. Chapter 10 compares the eurozone members’ sovereign ratings with Credit Default Swap-Implied Ratings (CDS-IRs) during the Greek debt crisis of November 2009–May 2010.
The only title that combines discussion and analysis on the methodologies employed by the major rating agencies together with those actually implemented internally by credit practitioners from financial institutions.
Credit Ratings and Sovereign Debt by B. Paudyn Pdf
Bartholomew Paudyn investigates how governments across the globe struggle to constitute the authoritative knowledge underpinning the political economy of creditworthiness and what the (neoliberal) 'fiscal normality' means for democratic governance.
Are Rating Agencies Powerful? An Investigation Into the Impact and Accuracy of Sovereign Ratings by Mr.John Kiff,Sylwia Nowak,MissLiliana Schumacher Pdf
We find that Credit Rating Agencies (CRA)'s opinions have an impact in the cost of funding of sovereign issuers and consequently ratings are a concern for financial stability. While ratings produced by the major CRAs perform reasonably well when it comes to rank ordering default risk among sovereigns, there is evidence of rating stability failure during the recent global financial crisis. These failures suggest that ratings should incorporate the obligor's resilience to stress scenarios. The empirical evidence also supports: (i) reform initiatives to reduce the impact of CRAs' certification services; (ii) more stringent validation requirements for ratings if they are to be used in capital regulations; and (iii) more transparency with regard to the quantitative parameters used in the rating process.
Sovereign Rating News and Financial Markets Spillovers by Bertrand Candelon,Mr. Amadou N. R. Sy,Mr. Rabah Arezki Pdf
This paper examines the spillover effects of sovereign rating news on European financial markets during the period 2007-2010. Our main finding is that sovereign rating downgrades have statistically and economically significant spillover effects both across countries and financial markets. The sign and magnitude of the spillover effects depend both on the type of announcements, the source country experiencing the downgrade and the rating agency from which the announcements originates. However, we also find evidence that downgrades to near speculative grade ratings for relatively large economies such as Greece have a systematic spillover effects across Euro zone countries. Rating-based triggers used in banking regulation, CDS contracts, and investment mandates may help explain these results.
An Analysis of Transfer Risk in Comparison to Sovereign Risk by Philipp Hauger Pdf
Master's Thesis from the year 2006 in the subject Economics - Monetary theory and policy, grade: 1,6, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, language: English, abstract: Transfer risk is the risk that a non-sovereign entity, which is able and willing to service its foreign currency obligations, cannot obtain the required currency or cannot transfer this money to the receiver abroad. This transfer inability is caused by the imposition of restrictions on convertibility or capital transfers by the government. Transfer risk applies to all types of international investments, especially in emerging market countries. Due to this, it is more important than ever in these days of globalization. The New Basel Capital Accords require the consideration of transfer risk, too. The author Philipp Hauger describes the different types of risk occurring in international borrowings and investments. The political and corporate determinants of transfer risk are examined. The book illustrates the reasons why monetary unions reduce the risk of a transfer event, even though they have no influence on the sovereign risk. In addition, the author details how transfer risk is assessed by international professionals and describes two interesting approaches to estimate transfer risk in a quantitative way. This book is intended for professionals and students who are interested in the risks of international investments and for everybody working in international business, who has to differentiate between sovereign risk and the risk of a corporate default.
Sovereign Debt and Rating Agency Bias by D. Tennant,M. Tracey Pdf
Sovereign Debt and Credit Rating Bias rejects the notion that credit rating agencies' rigorous and transparent determination of ratings leaves no room for bias, and debunks the myth that the value CRAs place on their reputational capital precludes prolonged biases. To determine the extent of CRAs' biased actions, Tennant and Tracey apply a rigorous methodology to a well-established economic model of the determinants of sovereign debt quality. They present strong evidence of bias against poor countries and demonstrate how biased rating changes could disadvantage such countries and the companies operating therein as they seek access to international capital markets. They discuss plausible explanations for the bias and suggest remedial measures that would help ensure balance in credit rating changes. This book fills an important gap by rigorously examining a long-standing but often ignored concern about the rating practices of credit rating agencies.
Sovereign Debt and Rating Agency Bias by D. Tennant,M. Tracey Pdf
Sovereign Debt and Credit Rating Bias rejects the notion that credit rating agencies' rigorous and transparent determination of ratings leaves no room for bias, and debunks the myth that the value CRAs place on their reputational capital precludes prolonged biases. To determine the extent of CRAs' biased actions, Tennant and Tracey apply a rigorous methodology to a well-established economic model of the determinants of sovereign debt quality. They present strong evidence of bias against poor countries and demonstrate how biased rating changes could disadvantage such countries and the companies operating therein as they seek access to international capital markets. They discuss plausible explanations for the bias and suggest remedial measures that would help ensure balance in credit rating changes. This book fills an important gap by rigorously examining a long-standing but often ignored concern about the rating practices of credit rating agencies.
The Nonlinear Relationship Between Public Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings by Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov,Mr.Luca A Ricci Pdf
This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between public debt and sovereign credit ratings, using a wide sample of over one hundred advanced, emerging, and developing economies. It finds that: i) higher public debt lowers the probability of being placed in a higher rating category; ii) the negative debt-ratings relationship is nonlinear and depends on the rating grade itself; and iii) the identified nonlinearity explains the differential impact of debt on ratings in advanced economies versus in emerging markets and developing economies. These results hold for both gross debt and net debt, and are robust to alternative dependent variable definitions, analytical techniques, and empirical specifications. These findings underscore the potential for fiscal consolidation in helping countries achieve a better credit rating.
The current degradation of sovereign balance sheets raises very real concerns about how sovereign creditworthiness is measured by credit rating agencies. Given the disastrous economic and social effects of any downgrade, the book offers an alternative and calls for more transparency about the quantitative measures used in calibrating the rating process and how sovereign ratings are validated. It argues that oversight is required and procedures improved, including subjecting methodologies of assessing default to more standardization and monitoring. Sovereign Credit Rating explains the process of sovereign creditworthiness assessment and explores the consequences of possible inaccuracies in the process. Developing an innovative new methodology to assess ratings accuracy, it shows that the announcement of each rating action by the major credit rating agencies show alarming inconsistencies. Written by an internationally recognized author and professor, this unique book will be of interest to researchers and advanced students in corporate governance, accounting, public finance and regulation.
Credit Ratings and Sovereign Debt by B. Paudyn Pdf
Bartholomew Paudyn investigates how governments across the globe struggle to constitute the authoritative knowledge underpinning the political economy of creditworthiness and what the (neoliberal) 'fiscal normality' means for democratic governance.
In 2020, the G20 proposed a solution for the debt-related issues affecting the world’s poorest countries due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, their initiatives have failed to meet their objectives. The author argues that the reason for this failure is the inability to bring sovereign countries to the table to re-negotiate their debt agreements with private creditors as they fear credit rating agencies and the prospect of a downgrade. The author refers to this as the ‘credit rating impasse’. This book proposes a novel solution. The author asserts that there is a need in the literature to unpick the dynamic that exists and creates that impasse, namely the pressures that exist between sovereign states, private creditors, credit rating agencies, and the geo-political backdrop that is massively influential in the dynamic, that is, the adversarial relationship between China and the US. This book addresses the recent history of debt treatment for poorer countries and related successes and failures: COVID-19-related issues and the development of the Debt Service Suspension Initiative and the Common Framework for Debt Treatment. This book examines the reasons for their failure by analysing the positions of the sovereign states, the division between private and official creditors and between multilateral institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank, credit rating agencies, and the competing political entities of China and the US. It presents a wider picture of the systemic underpinnings to such debt-related issues and, when examined through a geo-political perspective, the subsequent chances of future debt treatment-related successes. Licence line: The Open Access version of this book, available at www.taylorfrancis.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.
