Speculation Trading And Bubbles

Author : José A. Scheinkman
Publisher : Columbia University Press
Page : 137 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2014-07-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780231537636

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Speculation, Trading, and Bubbles by José A. Scheinkman Pdf

As long as there have been financial markets, there have been bubbles—those moments in which asset prices inflate far beyond their intrinsic value, often with ruinous results. Yet economists are slow to agree on the underlying forces behind these events. In this book José A. Scheinkman offers new insight into the mystery of bubbles. Noting some general characteristics of bubbles—such as the rise in trading volume and the coincidence between increases in supply and bubble implosions—Scheinkman offers a model, based on differences in beliefs among investors, that explains these observations. Other top economists also offer their own thoughts on the issue: Sanford J. Grossman and Patrick Bolton expand on Scheinkman's discussion by looking at factors that contribute to bubbles—such as excessive leverage, overconfidence, mania, and panic in speculative markets—and Kenneth J. Arrow and Joseph E. Stiglitz contextualize Scheinkman's findings.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2014
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:897084962

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Speculation, Trading, and Bubbles by Anonim Pdf

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Ludwig von Mises Institute
Page : 147 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2009-03-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781610164559

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Early Speculative Bubbles and Increases in the Supply of Money by Anonim Pdf

The Housing Bubble was hardly the first in human history. What's eluded historians is the same issue that eludes commentators today: the underlying cause of bubbles. This book is the first (and only) book to solve the mystery of the most famous bubble in world history: Tulipmania in 17th century Netherlands. It Is a legendary event but explanations have been lacking. People blame irrational exuberance, free markets, and an unleashed aristocracy. Douglas French takes a different route: he follows the money to prove that the bubble resulted from a government intervention that dramatically exploded the money supply and fueled the tulip-price bubble – not altogether different from modern bubbles. This book was French’s Master’s thesis written under the direction of Murray Rothbard and examining three of the most famous speculative bubble episodes in history through the lens of Austrian Business Cycle Theory. Although each of these episodes is well documented, this book examines the monetary interventions that engendered each of these events showing that not only the Mississippi Bubble and the South Sea Bubble were caused by government meddling, but Tulipmania was as well. Tulipmania was unique in that it was the sound money policy of the Dutch combined with free coinage laws that led to an acute increase in the supply of money and fostered an atmosphere that was ripe for speculation and malinvestment, manifesting itself in the intense trading of tulip bulbs. The author examines not only the Mississippi Bubble but also the life and monetary theories of its architect, John Law. Professor Joe Salerno calls Law the world’s first macroeconomist who implemented a Keynesian monetary system in France nearly two hundred years before Keynes was born. At the same time across the English Channel, a nearly bankrupt British government looked on with envy at Law’s system, believing that he was working a financial miracle. It was anything but this and investors in both countries were devastated. Although these episodes occurred centuries ago, readers will find the events eerily similar to today’s bubbles and busts: low interest rates, easy credit terms, widespread public participation, bankrupt governments, price inflation, frantic attempts by government to keep the booms going, and government bailouts of companies after the crash. When will we learn? We first have to get cause and effect in history straight. This book is an excellent contribution to that effort.

Author : Mathias Binswanger
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 368 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 1999
Category : Capital market
ISBN : OCLC:1195021728

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Stock Markets, Speculative Bubbles and Economic Growth by Mathias Binswanger Pdf

Author : William Quinn,John D. Turner
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 297 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2020-08-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781108421256

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Boom and Bust by William Quinn,John D. Turner Pdf

Why do stock and housing markets sometimes experience amazing booms followed by massive busts and why is this happening more and more frequently? Boom and Bust reveals why bubbles happen, and why some bubbles have catastrophic economic, social and political consequences, whilst others have actually benefited society.

Author : Kevin Hassett
Publisher : Currency
Page : 192 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2002-07-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781400045129

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Bubbleology by Kevin Hassett Pdf

There are only two types of stocks: those safe from bubbles and those that are not. This is a fact of investing many discovered as they saw their fabulous gains whittled away by the extreme calamity of the Internet sector. But what about the future? Is there a way for investors to capture the enormous potential for profit that exists at the frontier of the economy, the place where innovation and genius operate, without placing their fortunes in jeopardy? Is there a way to evaluate price increases—and declines—and identify whether they are happening for good or bad reasons? Bubbleology makes it possible to separate the winners from the losers. It is a brilliant, practical, and original analysis of the stock market that bashes the conventional wisdom about bubbles, showing that such famous examples as Tulipomania were not, in fact, bubbles at all. Bubbleology shows that the traditional way of evaluating risk—equating it with volatility—is inherently flawed and incomplete. If a stock fluctuates a lot in price it is regarded as risky. If the price is stable, then it is not. What this simplistic way of thinking leaves out is the simple fact that companies trying something completely new that may fundamentally alter the economic landscape are operating at the frontier. The stock of such a company swims in a sea of ambiguity, its circumstances uncertain, since there is little to provide guidance about the future. But when nobody knows for sure what will happen, pundits tell us again about Tulipomania, the South Seas Bubble, and now the debacle of the Internet to scare investors away from potentially enormous profits. To realize those profits, however, investors have to understand the role that uncertainty and ambiguity—the absence of reliable information about future events—play in the modern stock market. Those who equate ambiguity with bubbles will miss the great opportunities of the future. Bubbleology provides a new way to observe what is really going on in the market, enabling you to understand whether a stock or a sector is suspicious—whether it is in a bubble and therefore something to be avoided. Finding bubbles requires knowing where to look and what to look for. Bubbleology will help you avoid both streaming into speculative manias and shying away from perfectly good business opportunities. It tells you why you need to avoid both pontificating pundits and overconfident stock analysts. With this unique and forward-thinking book, you can inspect suspicious stocks, accurately discern risk, and diagnose a blossoming bubble before it vanishes along with your money.

Author : Peter M. Garber
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 180 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2001-08-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0262571536

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Famous First Bubbles by Peter M. Garber Pdf

The jargon of economics and finance contains numerous colorful terms for market-asset prices at odds with any reasonable economic explanation. Examples include "bubble," "tulipmania," "chain letter," "Ponzi scheme," "panic," "crash," "herding," and "irrational exuberance." Although such a term suggests that an event is inexplicably crowd-driven, what it really means, claims Peter Garber, is that we have grasped a near-empty explanation rather than expend the effort to understand the event. In this book Garber offers market-fundamental explanations for the three most famous bubbles: the Dutch Tulipmania (1634-1637), the Mississippi Bubble (1719-1720), and the closely connected South Sea Bubble (1720). He focuses most closely on the Tulipmania because it is the event that most modern observers view as clearly crazy. Comparing the pattern of price declines for initially rare eighteenth-century bulbs to that of seventeenth-century bulbs, he concludes that the extremely high prices for rare bulbs and their rapid decline reflects normal pricing behavior. In the cases of the Mississippi and South Sea Bubbles, he describes the asset markets and financial manipulations involved in these episodes and casts them as market fundamentals.

Author : Harrison G. Hong,José Alexandre Scheinkman,Wei Xiong
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 50 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2005
Category : Stocks
ISBN : OCLC:255048907

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Asset Float and Speculative Bubbles by Harrison G. Hong,José Alexandre Scheinkman,Wei Xiong Pdf

We model the relationship between asset float (tradeable shares) and speculative bubbles. Investors trade a stock with limited float because of insider lock-ups. They have heterogeneous beliefs due to overconfidence and face short-sales constraints. A bubble arises as price overweighs optimists' beliefs and investors anticipate the option to resell to those with even higher valuations. The bubble's size depends on float as investors anticipate an increase in float with lock-up expirations and speculate over the degree of insider selling. Consistent with the internet experience, the bubble, turnover and volatility decrease with float and prices drop on the lock-up expiration date.

Author : Gerald Ashley
Publisher : Harriman House Limited
Page : 306 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2010-08-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781906659936

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Financial Speculation by Gerald Ashley Pdf

When we deal in the financial markets are we investing, speculating or gambling? Does it really matter what we call it? As this book shows, the world of finance is not an easily defined game. Simple labels, such as gambling and speculation, won't help us grasp the underlying forces that drive the markets. It's far more important to understand the behaviour and biases of the players - their actions and motivations are the vital components that drive everything; bubbles, crashes, huge fortunes, reckless borrowing and complex instruments and strategies, all flow from this simple fact. And the markets are not just an external object, to be studied dispassionately under a microscope. How we act within our inner self, and apply our own set of risk and reward values to the seeming chaos of the market, is absolutely crucial. Clearly whatever games that are going on in the market are also going on inside our heads. In this fully updated and revised edition, Gerald Ashley gets to the heart of the financial markets. He draws on a wealth of revealing and instructive market insights, stories and anecdotes, challenges all the tired cliches about speculation, and slaughters many of the outdated sacred cows of finance. The book ranges across all the major asset classes, looks at past masters of the art, examines modern thinking on finance and risk, and assesses the value of experts, economists, chartists, market gurus and analysts. Simple examples are used to explain how the basic tools of finance fit together and how to profit in this often complex and unforgiving landscape.

Author : Garett Jones
Publisher : Springer
Page : 350 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2016-01-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781137553799

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Banking Crises by Garett Jones Pdf

Why do banks collapse? Are financial systems more fragile in recent decades? Can policies to fix the banking system do more harm than good? What's the history of banking crises? With dozens of brief, non-technical articles by economists and other researchers, Banking Crises offers answers from diverse scholarly viewpoints.

Author : Kevin A. Hassett
Publisher : Random House Digital, Inc.
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2002
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0609609297

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Bubbleology by Kevin A. Hassett Pdf

There are only two types of stocks: those safe from bubbles and those that are not. This is a fact of investing many discovered as they saw their fabulous gains whittled away by the extreme calamity of the Internet sector. But what about the future? Is there a way for investors to capture the enormous potential for profit that exists at the frontier of the economy, the place where innovation and genius operate, without placing their fortunes in jeopardy? Is there a way to evaluate price increases--and declines--and identify whether they are happening for good or bad reasons? Bubbleology makes it possible to separate the winners from the losers. It is a brilliant, practical, and original analysis of the stock market that bashes the conventional wisdom about bubbles, showing that such famous examples as Tulipomania were not, in fact, bubbles at all. Bubbleology shows that the traditional way of evaluating risk--equating it with volatility--is inherently flawed and incomplete. If a stock fluctuates a lot in price it is regarded as risky. If the price is stable, then it is not. What this simplistic way of thinking leaves out is the simple fact that companies trying something completely new that may fundamentally alter the economic landscape are operating at the frontier. The stock of such a company swims in a sea of ambiguity, its circumstances uncertain, since there is little to provide guidance about the future. But when nobody knows for sure what will happen, pundits tell us again about Tulipomania, the South Seas Bubble, and now the debacle of the Internet to scare investors away from potentially enormous profits. To realize those profits, however, investors have tounderstand the role that uncertainty and ambiguity--the absence of reliable information about future events--play in the modern stock market. Those who equate ambiguity with bubbles will miss the great opportunities of the future. Bubbleology provides a new way to observe what is really going on in the market, enabling you to understand whether a stock or a sector is suspicious--whether it is in a bubble and therefore something to be avoided. Finding bubbles requires knowing where to look and what to look for. Bubbleology will help you avoid both streaming into speculative manias and shying away from perfectly good business opportunities. It tells you why you need to avoid both pontificating pundits and overconfident stock analysts. With this unique and forward-thinking book, you can inspect suspicious stocks, accurately discern risk, and diagnose a blossoming bubble before it vanishes along with your money.

Author : Philip L. Carret
Publisher : Pickle Partners Publishing
Page : 228 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2015-11-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781786256744

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The Art Of Speculation by Philip L. Carret Pdf

Philip L. Carret (1896-1998) was a famed investor and founder of The Pioneer Fund (Fidelity Mutual Trust), one of the first Mutual Funds in the United States. A former Barron’s reporter and WWI aviator, Carret launched the Mutual Trust in 1928 after managing money for his friends and family. The initial effort evolved into Pioneer Investments. He ran the fund for 55 years, during which an investment of $10,000 became $8 million. Warren Buffett said of him that he had “the best long term investment record of anyone I know” He is most famous for the long successful track record he achieved investing in Common Stocks and for being one of Warren Buffett’s role models. This book comprises a series of articles written for Barron’s and published in book form in 1930.—Print Ed.

Author : György Komáromi
Publisher : ICFAI Books
Page : 129 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2006-11-14
Category : Business enterprises
ISBN : 9788131404089

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Anatomy Of Stock Market Bubbles by György Komáromi Pdf

This book presents one of the most controversial happenings in economics stock market bubbles. The author discusses this topic threadbare and provides a critical analysis of related literature from different economic schools. This book also presents analy

Author : John David Murray,Simon Van Norden,Bank of Canada,Robert Vigfusson
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 43 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 1996
Category : Canada
ISBN : 0662249097

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Excess Volatility and Speculative Bubbles in the Canadian Dollar by John David Murray,Simon Van Norden,Bank of Canada,Robert Vigfusson Pdf

Greater intervention by the public sector is often proposed as a solution to the increased speculation and excessive price volatility thought to characterise today's competitive world financial system. This paper attempts to determine whether financial asset prices are in fact subject to excess volatility, using the Canadian dollar as a representative asset. The first section describes the behaviour of the Canadian dollar over 25 years beginning in June 1970, when Canada decided to return to a flexible rate system. Broad movements in the dollar as well as daily changes are examined and compared with those of other major currencies and financial assets. This is followed by a series of tests designed to check for persistent misalignments in the currency. A reduced-form model of real exchange rate determination is estimated using cointegration techniques, and the analysis is extended with a test for speculative bubbles based on a regime-switching specification in which the market is dominated at different times by speculative traders and other agents guided by more fundamental factors. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of the results obtained.

Author : Laurence Krause
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 298 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2019-10-02
Category : Foreign exchange futures
ISBN : 0367288567

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Speculation and the Dollar by Laurence Krause Pdf

I began serious consideration of the issues and subject matter that comprise this book as a graduate student at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. In need of a dissertation topic and vaguely curious about international monetary economics, I decided to sit in on Leonard Rapping's undergraduate course on international finance. Needless to say, I was soon hooked. Within several months I was teaching my own course on international money and beginning to write an outline of what would become my doctoral dissertation on foreign exchange speculation. Once completed the dissertation thesis became this basis for this book.