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Statistical Analysis of Climate Extremes by Manfred Mudelsee Pdf
The risks posed by climate change and its effect on climate extremes are an increasingly pressing societal problem. This book provides an accessible overview of the statistical analysis methods which can be used to investigate climate extremes and analyse potential risk. The statistical analysis methods are illustrated with case studies on extremes in the three major climate variables: temperature, precipitation, and wind speed. The book also provides datasets and access to appropriate analysis software, allowing the reader to replicate the case study calculations. Providing the necessary tools to analyse climate risk, this book is invaluable for students and researchers working in the climate sciences, as well as risk analysts interested in climate extremes.
Extremes in a Changing Climate by Amir AghaKouchak,David Easterling,Kuolin Hsu,Siegfried Schubert,Soroosh Sorooshian Pdf
This book provides a collection of the state-of-the-art methodologies and approaches suggested for detecting extremes, trend analysis, accounting for nonstationarities, and uncertainties associated with extreme value analysis in a changing climate. This volume is designed so that it can be used as the primary reference on the available methodologies for analysis of climate extremes. Furthermore, the book addresses current hydrometeorologic global data sets and their applications for global scale analysis of extremes. While the main objective is to deliver recent theoretical concepts, several case studies on extreme climate conditions are provided. Audience The book is suitable for teaching in graduate courses in the disciplines of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth System Science, Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences.
Extremes in a Changing Climate by Amir AghaKouchak,David Easterling,Kuolin Hsu,Siegfried Schubert,Soroosh Sorooshian Pdf
This book provides a collection of the state-of-the-art methodologies and approaches suggested for detecting extremes, trend analysis, accounting for nonstationarities, and uncertainties associated with extreme value analysis in a changing climate. This volume is designed so that it can be used as the primary reference on the available methodologies for analysis of climate extremes. Furthermore, the book addresses current hydrometeorologic global data sets and their applications for global scale analysis of extremes. While the main objective is to deliver recent theoretical concepts, several case studies on extreme climate conditions are provided. Audience The book is suitable for teaching in graduate courses in the disciplines of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth System Science, Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences.
Climate Time Series Analysis by Manfred Mudelsee Pdf
Climate is a paradigm of a complex system. Analysing climate data is an exciting challenge, which is increased by non-normal distributional shape, serial dependence, uneven spacing and timescale uncertainties. This book presents bootstrap resampling as a computing-intensive method able to meet the challenge. It shows the bootstrap to perform reliably in the most important statistical estimation techniques: regression, spectral analysis, extreme values and correlation. This book is written for climatologists and applied statisticians. It explains step by step the bootstrap algorithms (including novel adaptions) and methods for confidence interval construction. It tests the accuracy of the algorithms by means of Monte Carlo experiments. It analyses a large array of climate time series, giving a detailed account on the data and the associated climatological questions. This makes the book self-contained for graduate students and researchers.
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution
Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 187 pages File Size : 49,9 Mb Release : 2016-07-28 Category : Science ISBN : 9780309380973
Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution Pdf
As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
Analysis of Climate Variability by Hans v. Storch,Antonio Navarra Pdf
EUROPEAN SCHOOl OF CLiMATOlOGY AND NATURAL HAZARDS The training of scientific and technical personnel and the development of highly qualified scientists are, and have always been, among the important concerns of the European Commission. Advanced training is an important requirement for the implementation of a common EU policy in science and technology. The European School of Climatology and Natural Hazards was started as apart of the training and education activities of the European Programme on Climatology and Natural Hazards (EPOCH), and is continued under the subsequent research programme (ENVIRONMENT 1990-1994). The school consists of annual courses on specialised subjects within re search in climatology and natural hazards, and is open to graduating, grad uate and post graduate students in these fields. Each of the courses is organized in cooperation with a European Institu tion involved in the current research programme, and is aimed at giving to the students formal lectures and participation in informal discussions with leading researchers. The present volume is based on the lectures given at the course held on the island of Elba from the 30th October to the 6th of November 1993 on Statistical Analysis of Climate Variability. It features selected and extended presentations, and represents an important contribution to advanced studies in climate statistical analysis, supplementing more traditional texts. I trust that all those involved in research related to climate change and climate variability will appreciate this work and will benefit from the com prehensive and state-of-the-art information it provides.
Statistical Analysis and Stochastic Modelling of Hydrological Extremes by Hossein Tabari Pdf
Hydrological extremes have become a major concern because of their devastating consequences and their increased risk as a result of climate change and the growing concentration of people and infrastructure in high-risk zones. The analysis of hydrological extremes is challenging due to their rarity and small sample size, and the interconnections between different types of extremes and becomes further complicated by the untrustworthy representation of meso-scale processes involved in extreme events by coarse spatial and temporal scale models as well as biased or missing observations due to technical difficulties during extreme conditions. The complexity of analyzing hydrological extremes calls for robust statistical methods for the treatment of such events. This Special Issue is motivated by the need to apply and develop innovative stochastic and statistical approaches to analyze hydrological extremes under current and future climate conditions. The papers of this Special Issue focus on six topics associated with hydrological extremes: Historical changes in hydrological extremes; Projected changes in hydrological extremes; Downscaling of hydrological extremes; Early warning and forecasting systems for drought and flood; Interconnections of hydrological extremes; Applicability of satellite data for hydrological studies.
National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Environmental Change and Society,Committee on Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Social and Political Stresses
Author : National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Environmental Change and Society,Committee on Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Social and Political Stresses Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 253 pages File Size : 54,7 Mb Release : 2013-02-14 Category : Science ISBN : 9780309278560
Climate and Social Stress by National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Environmental Change and Society,Committee on Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Social and Political Stresses Pdf
Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events-slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change.
Statistical Analysis in Climate Research by Hans von Storch,Francis W. Zwiers Pdf
Climatology is, to a large degree, the study of the statistics of our climate. The powerful tools of mathematical statistics therefore find wide application in climatological research. The purpose of this book is to help the climatologist understand the basic precepts of the statistician's art and to provide some of the background needed to apply statistical methodology correctly and usefully. The book is self contained: introductory material, standard advanced techniques, and the specialised techniques used specifically by climatologists are all contained within this one source. There are a wealth of real-world examples drawn from the climate literature to demonstrate the need, power and pitfalls of statistical analysis in climate research. Suitable for graduate courses on statistics for climatic, atmospheric and oceanic science, this book will also be valuable as a reference source for researchers in climatology, meteorology, atmospheric science, and oceanography.
Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment by Jana Sillmann,Sebastian Sippel,Simone Russo Pdf
Climate extremes often imply significant impacts on human and natural systems, and these extreme events are anticipated to be among the potentially most harmful consequences of a changing climate. However, while extreme event impacts are increasingly recognized, methodologies to address such impacts and the degree of our understanding and prediction capabilities vary widely among different sectors and disciplines. Moreover, traditional climate extreme indices and large-scale multi-model intercomparisons that are used for future projections of extreme events and associated impacts often fall short in capturing the full complexity of impact systems. Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment describes challenges, opportunities and methodologies for the analysis of the impacts of climate extremes across various sectors to support their impact and risk assessment. It thereby also facilitates cross-sectoral and cross-disciplinary discussions and exchange among climate and impact scientists. The sectors covered include agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, human health, transport, conflict, and more broadly covering the human-environment nexus. The book concludes with an outlook on the need for more transdisciplinary work and international collaboration between scientists and practitioners to address emergent risks and extreme events towards risk reduction and strengthened societal resilience. Provides an overview about past, present and future changes in climate and weather extremes and how to connect that knowledge to impact and risk assessment under global warming Presents different approaches to assess societal-relevant impacts and risk of climate and weather extremes, including compound events, and the complexity of risk cascades and the interconnectedness of societal risk Features applications across a diversity of sectors, including agriculture, health, ecosystem services and urban transport
Compound Climate Extremes in the Present and Future Climates: Machine Learning, Statistical Methods and Dynamical Modelling by Wei Zhang,Abdou Khouakhi,Ming Luo,Hiroyuki Murakami Pdf
Statistical Analysis in Climate Research by Hans von Storch,Francis W. Zwiers Pdf
Climatology is, to a large degree, the study of the statistics of our climate. The powerful tools of mathematical statistics therefore find wide application in climatological research. The purpose of this book is to help the climatologist understand the basic precepts of the statistician's art and to provide some of the background needed to apply statistical methodology correctly and usefully. The book is self contained: introductory material, standard advanced techniques, and the specialised techniques used specifically by climatologists are all contained within this one source. There are a wealth of real-world examples drawn from the climate literature to demonstrate the need, power and pitfalls of statistical analysis in climate research. Suitable for graduate courses on statistics for climatic, atmospheric and oceanic science, this book will also be valuable as a reference source for researchers in climatology, meteorology, atmospheric science, and oceanography.
Climate Time Series Analysis by Manfred Mudelsee Pdf
Climate is a paradigm of a complex system. Analysing climate data is an exciting challenge, which is increased by non-normal distributional shape, serial dependence, uneven spacing and timescale uncertainties. This book presents bootstrap resampling as a computing-intensive method able to meet the challenge. It shows the bootstrap to perform reliably in the most important statistical estimation techniques: regression, spectral analysis, extreme values and correlation. This book is written for climatologists and applied statisticians. It explains step by step the bootstrap algorithms (including novel adaptions) and methods for confidence interval construction. It tests the accuracy of the algorithms by means of Monte Carlo experiments. It analyses a large array of climate time series, giving a detailed account on the data and the associated climatological questions. “....comprehensive mathematical and statistical summary of time-series analysis techniques geared towards climate applications...accessible to readers with knowledge of college-level calculus and statistics.” (Computers and Geosciences) “A key part of the book that separates it from other time series works is the explicit discussion of time uncertainty...a very useful text for those wishing to understand how to analyse climate time series.” (Journal of Time Series Analysis) “...outstanding. One of the best books on advanced practical time series analysis I have seen.” (David J. Hand, Past-President Royal Statistical Society)