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Statistics and Truth by Calyampudi Radhakrishna Rao Pdf
Written by one of the top most statisticians with experience in diverse fields of applications of statistics, the book deals with the philosophical and methodological aspects of information technology, collection and analysis of data to provide insight into a problem, whether it is scientific research, policy making by government or decision making in our daily lives.The author dispels the doubts that chance is an expression of our ignorance which makes accurate prediction impossible and illustrates how our thinking has changed with quantification of uncertainty by showing that chance is no longer the obstructor but a way of expressing our knowledge. Indeed, chance can create and help in the investigation of truth. It is eloquently demonstrated with numerous examples of applications that statistics is the science, technology and art of extracting information from data and is based on a study of the laws of chance. It is highlighted how statistical ideas played a vital role in scientific and other investigations even before statistics was recognized as a separate discipline and how statistics is now evolving as a versatile, powerful and inevitable tool in diverse fields of human endeavor such as literature, legal matters, industry, archaeology and medicine.Use of statistics to the layman in improving the quality of life through wise decision making is emphasized.
Probability, Statistics, and Truth by Richard Von Mises Pdf
This comprehensive study of probability considers the approaches of Pascal, Laplace, Poisson, and others. It also discusses Laws of Large Numbers, the theory of errors, and other relevant topics.
Scientific progress depends on good research, and good research needs good statistics. But statistical analysis is tricky to get right, even for the best and brightest of us. You'd be surprised how many scientists are doing it wrong. Statistics Done Wrong is a pithy, essential guide to statistical blunders in modern science that will show you how to keep your research blunder-free. You'll examine embarrassing errors and omissions in recent research, learn about the misconceptions and scientific politics that allow these mistakes to happen, and begin your quest to reform the way you and your peers do statistics. You'll find advice on: –Asking the right question, designing the right experiment, choosing the right statistical analysis, and sticking to the plan –How to think about p values, significance, insignificance, confidence intervals, and regression –Choosing the right sample size and avoiding false positives –Reporting your analysis and publishing your data and source code –Procedures to follow, precautions to take, and analytical software that can help Scientists: Read this concise, powerful guide to help you produce statistically sound research. Statisticians: Give this book to everyone you know. The first step toward statistics done right is Statistics Done Wrong.
Pirates, cats, Mexican lemons and North Carolina lawyers. Cheese consumption, margarine and drowning by falling out of fishing boats. This book has got it all.A roller coaster of a book in 8 witty chapters, this might just be the most entertaining statistics book you'll read this year.Did you know that pirates caused global warming, and that a statistical lie gave rise to one of the fastest growing religions on the planet? Probably not - you might have missed the memo that day. Did you also know that organic food is the real cause of autism, and that Mexican lemons are a major cause of deaths on American roads? They're true, honest - and this book has got the stats to prove it.In this eye-opening book, award winning statistician and author Lee Baker uncovers the key tricks of the trade used by politicians, corporations and other statistical conmen to deceive, hoodwink and otherwise dupe the unwary. Like how the ex-Chancellor of the Exchequer attempted to persuade us that 5 lots of 10 make 150, or how the President of the United States tried to convince us that 420,000 is a larger number than 782,000. Nice try boys, but we were awake that day!In his trademark sardonic style, the author reveals the secrets of how the statistical hustlers manipulate and misrepresent data for political or commercial gain - and often get away with it.Written as a layman's guide to lying, cheating and deceiving with data and statistics, there's not a dull page in sight!Discover the exciting world of statistical cheating and persuasive misdirection. Get this book, TODAY!
Statisticians and philosophers of science have many common interests but restricted communication with each other. This volume aims to remedy these shortcomings. It provides state-of-the-art research in the area of philosophy of statistics by encouraging numerous experts to communicate with one another without feeling “restricted by their disciplines or thinking “piecemeal in their treatment of issues. A second goal of this book is to present work in the field without bias toward any particular statistical paradigm. Broadly speaking, the essays in this Handbook are concerned with problems of induction, statistics and probability. For centuries, foundational problems like induction have been among philosophers’ favorite topics; recently, however, non-philosophers have increasingly taken a keen interest in these issues. This volume accordingly contains papers by both philosophers and non-philosophers, including scholars from nine academic disciplines. Provides a bridge between philosophy and current scientific findings Covers theory and applications Encourages multi-disciplinary dialogue
Author : Cooper B. Holmes Publisher : Charles C. Thomas Publisher Page : 102 pages File Size : 41,6 Mb Release : 1990 Category : Psychology ISBN : UOM:39015018876857
Quantitative thinking is our inclination to view natural and everyday phenomena through a lens of measurable events, with forecasts, odds, predictions, and likelihood playing a dominant part. The Error of Truth recounts the astonishing and unexpected tale of how quantitative thinking came to be, and its rise to primacy in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Additionally, it considers how seeing the world through a quantitative lens has shaped our perception of the world we live in, and explores the lives of the individuals behind its early establishment. This worldview was unlike anything humankind had before, and it came about because of a momentous human achievement: we had learned how to measure uncertainty. Probability as a science was conceptualised. As a result of probability theory, we now had correlations, reliable predictions, regressions, the bellshaped curve for studying social phenomena, and the psychometrics of educational testing. Significantly, these developments happened during a relatively short period in world history— roughly, the 130-year period from 1790 to 1920, from about the close of the Napoleonic era, through the Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolutions, to the end of World War I. At which time, transportation had advanced rapidly, due to the invention of the steam engine, and literacy rates had increased exponentially. This brief period in time was ready for fresh intellectual activity, and it gave a kind of impetus for the probability inventions. Quantification is now everywhere in our daily lives, such as in the ubiquitous microchip in smartphones, cars, and appliances; in the Bayesian logic of artificial intelligence, as well as applications in business, engineering, medicine, economics, and elsewhere. Probability is the foundation of quantitative thinking. The Error of Truth tells its story— when, why, and how it happened.
If you want to outsmart a crook, learn his tricks—Darrell Huff explains exactly how in the classic How to Lie with Statistics. From distorted graphs and biased samples to misleading averages, there are countless statistical dodges that lend cover to anyone with an ax to grind or a product to sell. With abundant examples and illustrations, Darrell Huff’s lively and engaging primer clarifies the basic principles of statistics and explains how they’re used to present information in honest and not-so-honest ways. Now even more indispensable in our data-driven world than it was when first published, How to Lie with Statistics is the book that generations of readers have relied on to keep from being fooled.
Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data by Charles Wheelan Pdf
A New York Times bestseller "Brilliant, funny…the best math teacher you never had." —San Francisco Chronicle Once considered tedious, the field of statistics is rapidly evolving into a discipline Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, has actually called "sexy." From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you’ll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more. For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions. And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.
This book presents a theoretical treatment, as well as a summary ofpractical methods of computation, of the forces and moments that acton marine craft. Its aim is to provide the tools necessary for theprediction or simulation of craft motions in calm water and inwaves. In addition to developing the required equations, the authorgives relations that permit at least approximate evaluation of thecoefficients so that useful results can be obtained. The approachbegins with the equations of motion for rigid bodies, relative tofixed- and moving-coordinate systems; then, the hydrodynamic forcesare examined, starting with hydrostatics and progressing to the forceson a moving vehicle in calm water and (after a review of water-wavetheory) in waves. Several detailed examples are presented, includingcalculations of hydrostatics, horizontal- and vertical-planedirectional stability, and wave-induced motions. Also included areunique discussions on various effects, such as fin?hullinteractions, numerical stability of integrators, heavy torpedoes, andthe dynamics of high-speed craft. The book is intended to be anintroductory-level graduate text and a reference for the practicingprofessional.
How to Lie with Numbers, Stats & Graphs by Lee Baker Pdf
How to Lie with Numbers, Stats & Graphs is a book that contains two of our best sellers – and by far our funniest! In this eye-opening book, award-winning statistician and author Lee Baker uncovers the key tricks of the trade used by politicians, corporations and other statistical conmen to deceive, hoodwink and otherwise dupe the unwary. Blurb: Truth, Lies & Statistics Pirates, cats, Mexican lemons and North Carolina lawyers. Cheese consumption, margarine and drowning by falling out of fishing boats. This book has got it all. A roller coaster of a book in 8 witty chapters, this might just be the most entertaining statistics book you’ll read this year. Did you know that pirates caused global warming, and that a statistical lie gave rise to one of the fastest growing religions on the planet? Probably not – you might have missed the memo that day. Did you also know that organic food is the real cause of autism, and that Mexican lemons are a major cause of deaths on American roads? They’re true, honest – and this book has got the stats to prove it. In this eye-opening book, award winning statistician and author Lee Baker uncovers the key tricks of the trade used by politicians, corporations and other statistical conmen to deceive, hoodwink and otherwise dupe the unwary. Like how the ex-Chancellor of the Exchequer attempted to persuade us that 5 lots of 10 make 150, or how the President of the United States tried to convince us that 420,000 is a larger number than 782,000. Nice try boys, but we were awake that day! In his trademark sardonic style, the author reveals the secrets of how the statistical hustlers manipulate and misrepresent data for political or commercial gain – and often get away with it. Blurb: Graphs Don't Lie Sarah Palin, abortions, global warming and Usain Bolt. The CEO of Apple, 35 trillion gun deaths in 1995, Fox News and 193%. This book has got scandals galore! With 9 witty chapters taking you on a roller coaster tour of graphical lies, pictorial deceits and pie charts of mayhem, this might just be the most entertaining book about graphs you’ll read this year. Did you know that between them, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney enjoyed a total of 193% support from Republican candidates in the 2012 US primaries? It must be true – it was on a pie chart broadcast on Fox News. Did you also know that the number 34 is smaller than 14, and zero is much bigger than 22? Honest, it’s true, it was published in a respectable national newspaper after the 2017 UK General Election. There can’t have been any kind of misdirection here because they were all shown on a pie chart. In this astonishing book, award winning statistician and author Lee Baker uncovers how politicians, the press, corporations and other statistical conmen use graphs and charts to deceive their unwitting audience. Like how a shocking, and yet seemingly innocuous statement as “Every year since 1950, the number of children gunned down has doubled”, meant that there should have been at least 35 trillion gun deaths in 1995 alone, the year the quote was printed in a reputable journal. Or how an anti-abortion group made their point by trying to convince us all that 327,000 is actually a larger number than 935,573. Nice try, but no cigar – we weren’t born yesterday. In his trademark sardonic style, the author reveals the secrets of how the statistical hustlers use graphs and charts to manipulate and misrepresent for political or commercial gain – and often get away with it. Written as a layman’s guide to lying, cheating and deceiving with data, statistics and graphs, in this book there’s not a dull page in sight! And there are elephants too… Discover the exciting world of lying with data, statistics and graphs. Get this book, TODAY!
Statistical and Methodological Myths and Urban Legends by Charles E. Lance,Robert J Vandenberg Pdf
This book provides an up-to-date review of commonly undertaken methodological and statistical practices that are sustained, in part, upon sound rationale and justification and, in part, upon unfounded lore. Some examples of these "methodological urban legends", as we refer to them in this book, are characterized by manuscript critiques such as: (a) "your self-report measures suffer from common method bias"; (b) "your item-to-subject ratios are too low"; (c) "you can’t generalize these findings to the real world"; or (d) "your effect sizes are too low". Historically, there is a kernel of truth to most of these legends, but in many cases that truth has been long forgotten, ignored or embellished beyond recognition. This book examines several such legends. Each chapter is organized to address: (a) what the legend is that "we (almost) all know to be true"; (b) what the "kernel of truth" is to each legend; (c) what the myths are that have developed around this kernel of truth; and (d) what the state of the practice should be. This book meets an important need for the accumulation and integration of these methodological and statistical practices.
Some people fear and mistrust numbers. Others want to use them for everything. After a long career as a statistician, Paul Goodwin has learned the hard way that the ones who want to use them for everything are a very good reason for the rest of us to fear and mistrust them. Something Doesn't Add Up is a fieldguide to the numbers that rule our world, even though they don't make sense. Wry, witty and humane, Goodwin explains mathematical subtleties so painlessly that you hardly need to think about numbers at all. He demonstrates how statistics that are meant to make life simpler often make it simpler than it actually is, but also reveals some of the ways we really can use maths to make better decisions. Enter the world of fitness tracking, the history of IQ testing, China's social credit system, Effective Altruism, and learn how someone should have noticed that Harold Shipman was killing his patients years before they actually did. In the right hands, maths is a useful tool. It's just a pity there are so many of the wrong hands about.
