Survival Under Uncertainty

Author : Dimitri Volchenkov
Publisher : Springer
Page : 238 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2016-06-28
Category : Science
ISBN : 9783319394213

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Survival under Uncertainty by Dimitri Volchenkov Pdf

This book introduces and studies a number of stochastic models of subsistence, communication, social evolution and political transition that will allow the reader to grasp the role of uncertainty as a fundamental property of our irreversible world. At the same time, it aims to bring about a more interdisciplinary and quantitative approach across very diverse fields of research in the humanities and social sciences. Through the examples treated in this work – including anthropology, demography, migration, geopolitics, management, and bioecology, among other things – evidence is gathered to show that volatile environments may change the rules of the evolutionary selection and dynamics of any social system, creating a situation of adaptive uncertainty, in particular, whenever the rate of change of the environment exceeds the rate of adaptation. Last but not least, it is hoped that this book will contribute to the understanding that inherent randomness can also be a great opportunity – for social systems and individuals alike – to help face the challenge of “survival under uncertainty”.

Author : Frederick Funston,Stephen Wagner
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 368 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2010-06-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0470617489

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Surviving and Thriving in Uncertainty by Frederick Funston,Stephen Wagner Pdf

A new book to help senior executives and boards get smart about risk management The ability of businesses to survive and thrive often requires unconventional thinking and calculated risk taking. The key is to make the right decisions—even under the most risky, uncertain, and turbulent conditions. In the new book, Surviving and Thriving in Uncertainty: Creating the Risk Intelligent Enterprise, authors Rick Funston and Steve Wagner suggest that effective risk taking is needed in order to innovate, stay competitive, and drive value creation. Based on their combined decades of experience as practitioners, consultants, and advisors to numerous business professionals throughout the world, Funston and Wagner discuss the adoption of 10 essential and practical skills, which will improve agility, resilience, and realize benefits: Challenging basic business assumptions can help identify "Black Swans" and provide first-mover advantage Defining the corporate risk appetite and risk tolerances can help reduce the risk of ruin. Anticipating potential causes of failure can improve chances of survival and success through improved preparedness. Factoring in velocity and momentum can improve speed of response and recovery. Verifying sources and the reliability of information can improve insights for decision making and thus decision quality. Taking a longer-term perspective can aid in identifying the potential unintended consequences of short-term decisions.

Author : Michel Syrett,Marion Devine,The Economist
Publisher : The Economist
Page : 170 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2014-02-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781610395137

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Managing Uncertainty by Michel Syrett,Marion Devine,The Economist Pdf

Managing uncertainty has become a new business imperative. Technological discontinuities, regulatory upheavals, geopolitical shocks, abrupt shifts in consumer tastes or behavior, and many other factors have emerged or intensified in recent years and together conspire to undermine even the most carefully constructed business strategies. Managing Uncertainty: Strategies for Surviving and Thriving in Turbulent Times addresses these new challenges, assessing the sources of business turbulence, how to classify uncertainty, and the different ways in which uncertainty can be embraced to allow greater innovation and growth. Drawing on examples from around the world, the book presents the most recent ideas on what it means to manage uncertainty, from practitioners, academics, and consultants. • Addresses the challenges of managing uncertainty in business • Presents a step-by-step guide to managing business uncertainty • Draws examples from major international companies, including Intel, Procter & Gamble, Siemens, Boeing, Quinetiq, Philips, China Telecom, Ford, Apple, Shell, Glaxo SmithKline and many more Written for business leaders and managers looking for new ways to ensure that their businesses continue to thrive in a world of increasing complexity, Managing Uncertainty presents new and innovative ideas about reducing risk by understanding difficult-to-predict shifts.

Author : Hans-Werner Sinn
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 378 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783642615474

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Economic Decisions Under Uncertainty by Hans-Werner Sinn Pdf

The Fundamental Issues Involved Why do we need a theory of uncertainty? It is a fact that almost all man's economic decisions are made under conditions of uncertainty, but this fact alone does not provide a strong enough argument for making the effort necessary to generalize ordinary preference theory designed for a world of perfect certainty. In accordance with Occam's Razor, the mathematician may well welcome a generalization of assumptions even if it does not promise more than a restatement of known results. The economist, however, will only be well disposed towards making the effort if he can expect to achieve new insights and interesting results, for he is interested in the techniques necessary for the generalization only as means to an end, not as ends in themselves. A stronger reason for developing a theory of uncertainty, therefore, seems to be the fact that there are kinds of economic activities to which the non-stochastic preference theory has no access or has access only through highly artificial constructions. Such activities include portfolio decisions of wealth holders, speculation, and insurance. These will be considered in detail in the last chapter of the book. The main purpose of this book, however, is not to apply a theory of uncertainty to concrete economic problems, the purpose rather is to formulate such a theory.

Author : Shafii A. Ndanusa MBA, ACCA
Publisher : Xlibris Corporation
Page : 91 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2011-11-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781465383112

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Bankruptcy And Survival In Times Of Economic Uncertainty by Shafii A. Ndanusa MBA, ACCA Pdf

Bankruptcy and Survival in times of Economic Uncertainty is a book about the potential impact of bankruptcies on individuals, households, businesses and nations. The effect of economic downturns on the mental and physical health of people is highlighted. The book traces the background history of economic crises beginning with the Great Depression to the looming European sovereign debt crisis. The second part focused on different dimensions of bankruptcy. The concluding part of the book presents a collection of five step tips for individuals, businesses and nation states as recommendations in the course of crafting an economic survival plan.

Author : Theodore Modis
Publisher : McGraw-Hill Companies
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 1998
Category : Business cycles
ISBN : 0070434050

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Conquering Uncertainty by Theodore Modis Pdf

Theorizing that business people can focus on the "big picture" by studying natural laws, this text evaluates what business leaders can and cannot do in response to the changes of "business seasons". Scientific methods are used in conjunction with the observation of natural laws to solve problems.

Author : Thomas L. Vincent,Yosef Cohen,Walter J. Grantham,Geoffrey P. Kirkwood,Jan M. Skowronski
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 329 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2013-03-08
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9783642933653

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Modeling and Management of Resources under Uncertainty by Thomas L. Vincent,Yosef Cohen,Walter J. Grantham,Geoffrey P. Kirkwood,Jan M. Skowronski Pdf

This vol ume contains the proceedings of the second U. S. -Austral ia workshop on Renewable Resource Management held at the East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, December 9-12, 1985. The workshop was jointly sponsored by the National Science Foundation (USA) and the Department of Science and Technology (Austral ia) under the U. S. -Austral ia Cooperative Science Program. The objective of the workshop was to focus on problems associated with the management of renewable resource systems. A particular emphasis was given to methods for handling uncertain elements whieh are present in any real system. Toward this end, the partiei pants were chosen so that the collective expertise included mathematical modeling, dynamical control/game theory, ecology, and practical management of real systems. Each participant was invited to give an informal presentation in his field of expertise as related to the overall theme. The formal papers (contained in this vo 1 ume) were written after the workshop so that the authors coul d util ize the workshop experience in relating their own work to others. To further encourage this exchange, each paper contained in this volume was reviewed by two other participants who then wrote formal comments. These comments (with author's reply in some cases) are attached to the end of each paper.

Author : Barrett Williams,ChatGPT
Publisher : Barrett Williams
Page : 118 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2024-04-22
Category : Body, Mind & Spirit
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Beyond Survival by Barrett Williams,ChatGPT Pdf

Announcing "Beyond Survival" – the essential guide to preparing for, enduring, and prevailing over any apocalyptic scenario that fate might throw your way. In an unpredictable world, safety and security are not guaranteed. Whether facing the aftermath of natural disasters, the spread of disease, or the breakdown of societal structures, the key to not just surviving, but thriving, is preparedness. Imagine having a comprehensive manual that equips you to face such cataclysms with confidence. That's "Beyond Survival" – your blueprint for building a future when the days seem bleakest. This resource delves deep into the heart of survivalism, extending beyond mere physical readiness to encompass the mental resilience and community fortitude necessary for long-term endurance. Each chapter invites you on a journey of mastery over the art of survival, from understanding the psychological impact of catastrophe to pioneering new frontiers in a changed world. Discover how to navigate through the chaos with chapters dedicated to the nuances of food security, water purification, shelter creation, and the ingenious methods of fortifying a place to call your own. Explore the intricate strategies for self-protection, the subtleties of establishing law and order, and the critical importance of maintaining health and medical preparedness in situations where professional care may no longer be accessible. In a world disconnected, communication becomes a lifeline. "Beyond Survival" offers invaluable insights into establishing contact with fellow survivors, bartering for necessities without the luxury of currency, and the underestimated power of leadership in a fledgling society. Witness a treasure trove of skill-building chapters structured to guide you through the essentials of navigating treacherous new environments, adapting to climate shifts, and passing on vital knowledge to ensure the survival of future generations. And for those who dare to look beyond the precipice, "Beyond Survival" provides visionary perspectives on restoring civilization and embracing an adaptive mindset for whatever unknowns the future presents. Step into a world of possibility. Secure your copy of "Beyond Survival" and embark on the ultimate journey of preparation and resilience. For it's not just about making it through the storm; it's about reshaping the world in the calm that follows. Your legacy of endurance awaits.

Author : Rabindra Nath Bhattacharya
Publisher : IMS
Page : 312 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2003
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 0940600552

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Probability, Statistics, and Their Applications by Rabindra Nath Bhattacharya Pdf

Author : Jaime Gil-Aluja
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 459 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789401153287

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Investment in Uncertainty by Jaime Gil-Aluja Pdf

FIRST PART Preparation of the Investment 1. Investments in the Company 19 The decline of stability . . 19 The change in direction of studies on the investment process. 25 Basic elements for arithmetical study of selection 29 Thc study of selection from non-numerical elements. 37 2. Programming Investment Activity 49 Classical programming techniques. 49 Handling of an investment programme. 56 Incorporation of costs into investment projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 Estimating financial needs throughout the process. 72 3. Financial Risk of Investment 85 Financial aspects of the investment process. 85 Determination of the financial capacity of the investment . . 89 From pre-diagnosis to diagnosis. 102 Numerical determination of the financial risk of an investment. 106 4. Analysis of financial products for the investment 113 Aspects prior to product analysis. 113 Analysis by means of the clan concept . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 Obtaining affinities and thc use of codes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 Grouping the characteristics of the products by means of the Moore closing. 126 From product grouping to affinities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 10 / Index SECOND PART Selection 5. A first approximation to selection models 145 Updating of monetary currents 145 Incorporation of the lack of precision of interests rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 The hypothesis of known net values and fuzzy rate of interest . . . . . . 157 6. Selection of investments in an economy with inflation 165 Estimate of monetary currents at constant prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165 Estimate of monetary currents at prices for each period . . . . . . . 172 The hypothesis of different rates of inflation . . . . 180 7.

Author : Barrie M. Cole
Publisher : Vernon Press
Page : 383 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2014-12-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781622730162

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Supply Chain Optimization under Uncertainty by Barrie M. Cole Pdf

Drawing on cutting-edge research, this book proposes a new 'Supply Chain Optimization under Uncertainty’, technology. Its application can bring many proven benefits to supply chain entities, any associated service providers, and, of course, the customers. The technology can provide the best design and operating solution for a Supply Chain Network (SCN) that is subject to any prevailing conditions of Operational Uncertainty (OU). A SCN is defined as a network of production facilities, distribution centers and retail sales outlets. OU is defined as any relevant combination of i) multiple process objectives e.g. a business needs to maximize operating profits and to minimize inventory levels, ii) fuzziness (<, <=, >, or >=) e.g. sales <= 1500 t/mth and iii) probability e.g. sale of fertilizer is dependent on probabilistic rainfall. Following this method always enables the determination of realistic optimum supply chain solutions, since the effects of any operational uncertainties are always provided for. The book is arranged in two parts. The first part covers the theory and recent research into supply chain optimization under uncertainty. The second part documents the application of the newly proposed technology to an agricultural fertilizer’s (NPK, South Africa) supply chain.

Author : Alessandro Citanna,John Donaldson,H. Polemarchakis,Paolo Siconolfi,Stephen Spear
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 278 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2006-01-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783540271925

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Essays in Dynamic General Equilibrium Theory by Alessandro Citanna,John Donaldson,H. Polemarchakis,Paolo Siconolfi,Stephen Spear Pdf

In the area of dynamic economics, David Cass’s work has spawned a number of important lines of research, including the study of dynamic general equilibrium theory, the concept of sunspot equilibria, and general equilibrium theory when markets are incomplete. Based on these contributions, this volume contains new developments in the field, written by Cass's students and co-authors.

Author : Thomas Meyer,Pierre-Yves Mathonet
Publisher : Wiley + ORM
Page : 430 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2011-02-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781119995029

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Beyond the J Curve by Thomas Meyer,Pierre-Yves Mathonet Pdf

In recent times, venture capital and private equity funds have become household names, but so far little has been written for the investors in such funds, the so-called limited partners. There is far more to the management of a portfolio of venture capital and private equity funds than usually perceived. Beyond the J Curve describes an innovative toolset for such limited partners to design and manage portfolios tailored to the dynamics of this market place, going far beyond the typical and often-simplistic recipe to 'go for top quartile funds'. Beyond the J Curve provides the answers to key questions, including: Why 'top-quartile' promises should be taken with a huge pinch of salt and what it takes to select superior fund managers? What do limited partners need to consider when designing and managing portfolios? How one can determine the funds' economic value to help addressing the questions of 'fair value' under IAS 39 and 'risk' under Basel II or Solvency II? Why is monitoring important, and how does a limited partner manage his portfolio? How the portfolio's returns can be improved through proper liquidity management and what to consider when over-committing? And, why uncertainty rather than risk is an issue and how a limited partner can address and benefit from the fast changing private equity environment? Beyond the J Curve takes the practitioner's view and offers private equity and venture capital professionals a comprehensive guide making high return targets more realistic and sustainable. This book is a must have for all parties involved in this market, as well as academic and students.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Academic Press
Page : 538 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2018-09-04
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780128035856

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Whooping Cranes: Biology and Conservation by Anonim Pdf

Whooping Cranes: Biology and Conservation covers one of the most endangered birds in North America, and the subject of intense research and highly visible conservation activity. The volume summarizes current biological information on Whooping Cranes and provides the basis for future research necessary for conservation of this species. This edited volume concentrates on work completed in the past 20 years in the areas of population biology, behavior and social structure, habitat use, disease and health, captive breeding, and Whooping Crane conservation. Much of the information presented comes from the study and management of remnant and reintroduced populations of Whooping Cranes in the field; some information is from experimentation and breeding of captive Whooping Cranes. Whooping Cranes: Biology and Conservation seeks to inform and galvanize action dedicated to meeting the challenges faced by Whooping Crane managers and conservationists. Thus, it describes one model of endangered species conservation and restoration that will interest a wide audience: professionals that work on cranes; researchers in the fields of small population biology, endangered species, and avian ecology; wildlife veterinarians and those involved in avian husbandry; administrators of management agencies or conservation organizations; conservationists in other fields; teachers of conservation biology or ornithology and their students; and the educated general public. Presents a comprehensive treatment of the biology and ecology of Whooping Cranes, including biology of both remnant and reintroduced populations of Whooping Cranes Describes efforts over the past 45 years on conservation and the challenges of reintroducing an endangered species Includes chapters from a variety of disciplinary and scale perspectives, ranging from evolution, to population ecology, behavior, habitat use, large landscape conservation, conflict, and conservation efforts Features contributions that are readable, yet technically complete and fully referenced Provides an example of partnership and collegial action that integrates information produced by scientific research and operational wildlife management Edited and written by the leading Whooping Crane scholars and practitioners focused on this high-profile species of conservation concern

Author : Shafii A. Ndanusa Acca Mba,Shafii A. Ndanusa
Publisher : Xlibris Corporation
Page : 92 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2011
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1465383107

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Bankruptcy and Survival in Times of Economic Uncertainty by Shafii A. Ndanusa Acca Mba,Shafii A. Ndanusa Pdf

Bankruptcy and Survival in times of Economic Uncertainty is a book about the potential impact of bankruptcies on individuals, households, businesses and nations. The effect of economic downturns on the mental and physical health of people is highlighted. The book traces the background history of economic crises beginning with the Great Depression to the looming European sovereign debt crisis. The second part focused on different dimensions of bankruptcy. The concluding part of the book presents a collection of five step tips for individuals, businesses and nation states as recommendations in the course of crafting an economic survival plan.