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Taming the Cycles of Finance? by Matthias Thiemann Pdf
"Central banks act as systemic firefighters, quelling financial instability. This book traces post-crisis attempts to limit instability, turning central banks de facto into policemen. It details the massive investment of central bank economists to enable this preventive policy and shows administrative and political constraints limiting its effects"--
Taming the Cycles of Finance? by Matthias Thiemann Pdf
Macroprudential regulation is a set of economic and policy tools that aim to mitigate risk in the financial and banking systems. It was largely developed in response to the financial crisis of 2007-08, turning central banks into de facto financial policemen. Taming the Cycles of Finance traces the post-crisis rise of macroprudential regulation and argues that, despite its original aims, it typically supports finance in times of crisis but fails to curb it in times of booms. Investigating how different macroprudential frameworks developed in the UK, the USA and the Eurozone, the book explains how central bank economists went about building early warning systems to identify fragilities in the financial system. It then shows how administrative and political constraints limited the effects of this shift, as central banks were wary of intervening in a discretionary manner and policymakers were opposed to measures to limit credit growth.
A compelling financial narrative on flexible strategies investors can use to protect their assets Which is the best strategy for protecting your investments? Value investing? Indexing? Hedging? Growth investing? Asset allocation? It all depends upon the market because, although Wall Street has tried time and time again to devise a single system to tame the beast, the only thing that's constant about the market is that it's always changing and no one system will work perfectly to protect your assets each and every time. Taming the Beast: Wall Street's Imperfect Answers to Making Money presents the various strategies, and shows you how the best strategy is to be both flexible and nimble. Details the origins and evolutions of Wall Street's most popular trading strategies Describes who originated the strategy, and those who contributed to it Analyzes each strategy's strengths and weaknesses As Benjamin Graham noted in the 1930s, investors would be well advised to avoid getting mired in one set of beliefs. Times change, and so do markets. The key is to be flexible. Taming the Beast shows you how.
Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows by Mr.R. G Gelos,Lucyna Gornicka,Mr.Robin Koepke,Ms.Ratna Sahay,Ms.Silvia Sgherri Pdf
The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.
Banks were allowed to enter securities markets and become universal banks during two periods in the past century - the 1920s and the late 1990s. Both times, universal banks made high-risk loans and packaged them into securities that were sold as safe investments to poorly-informed investors. Both times, universal banks promoted unsustainable booms that led to destructive busts - the Great Depression of the early 1930s and the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-09. Both times, governments were forced to arrange costly bailouts of universal banks. Congress passed the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 in response to the Great Depression. The Act broke up universal banks and established a decentralized financial system composed of three separate and independent sectors: banking, securities, and insurance. That system was stable and successful for over four decades until the big-bank lobby persuaded regulators to open loopholes in Glass-Steagall during the 1980s and convinced Congress to repeal it in 1999. Congress did not adopt a new Glass-Steagall Act after the Global Financial Crisis. Instead, Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Act. Dodd-Frank's highly technical reforms tried to make banks safer but left in place a dangerous financial system dominated by universal banks. Universal banks continue to pose unacceptable risks to financial stability and economic and social welfare. They exert far too much influence over our political and regulatory systems because of their immense size and their undeniable "too-big-to-fail" status. In Taming the Megabanks, Arthur Wilmarth argues that we must again separate banks from securities markets to avoid another devastating financial crisis and ensure that our financial system serves Main Street business firms and consumers instead of Wall Street bankers and speculators. Wilmarth's comprehensive and detailed analysis demonstrates that a new Glass-Steagall Act would make our financial system much more stable and less likely to produce boom-and-bust cycles. Giant universal banks would no longer dominate our financial system or receive enormous subsidies. A more decentralized and competitive financial system would encourage banks and securities firms to fulfill their proper roles as servants - not masters - of Main Street businesses and consumers.
This book is intended for anyone with an interest in trading or investing, whether they are amateurs or professionals. Its framework is applicable to all markets, whether they are bonds, money market, commodities, currencies, stocks, or property.
Gross Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets by Erlend Nier,Tahsin Saadi Sedik,Tomas Mondino Pdf
This paper assesses empirically the key drivers of private capital flows to a large sample of emerging market economies in the last decade. It analyzes the effect of the global financial cycle, measured by the VIX, on capital flows and investigates the role of fundamentals and country characteristics in mitigating or amplifying its effect. Using interaction models, we find the effect of the VIX to be non-linear. For low levels of the VIX, capital flows are driven by fundamental factors. During periods of stress, the VIX becomes the dominant driver of capital flows while other determinants, with the exception of interest rate differentials, lose statistical significance. Our results also suggest that the effect of global financial conditions on gross private capital flows increases with the host country’s level of financial sector development. Finally, our results imply that countries cannot fully insulate themselves from global financial shocks, unless creating a fragmented global financial system.
How the Financial System Can Best be Shaped to Meet the Needs of the American People by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs Pdf
Banks were allowed to enter securities markets and become universal banks during two periods in the past century - the 1920s and the late 1990s. Both times, universal banks made high-risk loans and packaged them into securities that were sold as safe investments to poorly-informed investors. Both times, universal banks promoted unsustainable booms that led to destructive busts - the Great Depression of the early 1930s and the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-09. Both times, governments were forced to arrange costly bailouts of universal banks. Congress passed the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 in response to the Great Depression. The Act broke up universal banks and established a decentralized financial system composed of three separate and independent sectors: banking, securities, and insurance. That system was stable and successful for over four decades until the big-bank lobby persuaded regulators to open loopholes in Glass-Steagall during the 1980s and convinced Congress to repeal it in 1999. Congress did not adopt a new Glass-Steagall Act after the Global Financial Crisis. Instead, Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Act. Dodd-Frank's highly technical reforms tried to make banks safer but left in place a dangerous financial system dominated by universal banks. Universal banks continue to pose unacceptable risks to financial stability and economic and social welfare. They exert far too much influence over our political and regulatory systems because of their immense size and their undeniable "too-big-to-fail" status. In Taming the Megabanks, Arthur Wilmarth argues that we must again separate banks from securities markets to avoid another devastating financial crisis and ensure that our financial system serves Main Street business firms and consumers instead of Wall Street bankers and speculators. Wilmarth's comprehensive and detailed analysis demonstrates that a new Glass-Steagall Act would make our financial system much more stable and less likely to produce boom-and-bust cycles. Giant universal banks would no longer dominate our financial system or receive enormous subsidies. A more decentralized and competitive financial system would encourage banks and securities firms to fulfill their proper roles as servants - not masters - of Main Street businesses and consumers.
Facing the Global Financial Cycle: What Role for Policy by Nicoletta Batini,Luigi Durand Pdf
Abstract In this paper we ask whether countries can influence their exposure to changes in global financial conditions. Specifically, we show that even though we can model cross-country capital flows via a global factor that closely tracks changes in global financial conditions, there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the sensitivity of each country to this same global factor. We then evaluate whether this cross-country heterogeneity can be attributed to different policy choices, including measures of capital flow management, such as capital controls and macroprudential policies. In our main results, we show that higher levels of capital controls and macroprudential policies both dampen the sensitivity to the global factor. Furthermore, we show that countries’ monetary and exchange rate policies can also be successfully deployed. Overall, our results have implications that extend beyond the surge that preceded the 2008 global financial crisis, and that closely resonate in light of the financial disruptions that followed the COVID-19 pandemic.
Financial Development and Cooperation in Asia and the Pacific by Edward K. Y. Chen,Wendy Dobson Pdf
The 1997–8 Asian financial crisis exposed weaknesses in the region’s national financial systems, but since then East Asia has become the world’s most dynamic economic region. Domestic financial systems have developed, cross-border financial flows within the region are growing apace as demand from governments and large firms increases and as the capabilities of financial institutions develop, and governments have initiated regional cooperation aimed at preventing future crises and managing them if they occur. This book examines the economies of Asia and the Pacific with reference to financial reform and liberalization, monetary policy frameworks, banking and capital markets, regulation and supervision and macroeconomic policies. Further, it asks what lessons have been learned from both the Asian financial crisis and the recent financial crisis, how to engender financial stability in the region, and how to ensure that the benefits of economic growth and financial development reach all members of society. Across four key sections, the chapters examine the future implications of historical studies of the relationships between financial development and growth; financial development including banks, non-bank financial institutions and capital markets; how financial stability is being sought in the region; and China’s plans for capital account opening and renminbi internationalization and subsequent the policy implications for China’s neighbours. This book draws on papers originally presented to the 36th Pacific Trade and Development Conference held in Hong Kong in 2013, and features contributions from leading academics and economists from around the world. As such, it will be of great interest to students and scholars of Asian economics, Asia Pacific studies, international economics and international finance.
Taming Financial Development to Reduce Crises by Mr.Sami Ben Naceur,Bertrand Candelon,Quentin Lajaunie Pdf
This paper assesses whether and how financial development triggers the occurrence of banking crises. It builds on a database that includes financial development as well as financial access, depth and efficiency for almost 100 countries. Through estimation of a dynamic logit panel model, it appears that financial development, from an institutional dimension and to a lesser extent from a market dimension, triggers financial instability within a one- to two-year horizon. Additionally, whereas financial access is destabilizing for advanced countries, it is stabilizing for emerging and low income ones. Both results have important implications for macroprudential policies and financial regulations.
This book presents the Clarendon Lectures in Finance by one of the leading exponents of financial booms and crises. Hyun Song Shin's work has shed light on the global financial crisis and he has been a central figure in the policy debates. The paradox of the global financial crisis is that it erupted in an era when risk management was at the core of the management of the most sophisticated financial institutions. This book explains why. The severity of the crisis is explained by financial development that put marketable assets at the heart of the financial system, and the increased sophistication of financial institutions that held and traded the assets. Step by step, the lectures build an analytical framework that take the reader through the economics behind the fluctuations in the price of risk and the boom-bust dynamics that follow. The book examines the role played by market-to-market accounting rules and securitisation in amplifying the crisis, and draws lessons for financial architecture, financial regulation and monetary policy. This book will be of interest to all serious students of economics and finance who want to delve beneath the outward manifestations to grasp the underlying dynamics of the boom-bust cycle in a modern financial system - a system where banking and capital market developments have become inseparable.
