The Adjustment To Commodity Price Shocks In Chile Colombia And Peru

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The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru

Mr.Francisco Roch
The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile Colombia and Peru Book PDF

Author : Mr.Francisco Roch
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 25 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2017-09-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484323885

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The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru by Mr.Francisco Roch Pdf

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile, Colombia, and Peru to commodity terms-of-trade shocks. The study is done in two steps: (i) an analysis of the impulse responses of key macroeconomic variables to terms-of-trade shocks and (ii) an event study of the adjustment to the recent decline in commodity prices. The experiences of these countries highlight the importance of flexible exchange rates to help with the adjustment to lower commodity prices, and staying vigilant in addressing depreciation pressures on inflation through tightening monetary policies. On the fiscal front, evidence shows that greater fiscal space, like in Chile and Peru, gives more room for accommodating terms-of-trade shocks.

Peru

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Peru Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2016-07-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1475582749

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Peru by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Pdf

This Selected Issues paper presents a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile, Colombia, and Peru to commodity terms-of-trade shocks. The study is done in two steps: (1) an analysis of the impulse responses of key macroeconomic variables to terms-of-trade shocks and (2) an event study of the adjustment to the recent decline in commodity prices. The experiences of these countries highlight the importance of flexible exchange rates to help with the adjustment to lower commodity prices, and staying vigilant in addressing depreciation pressures on inflation through tightening monetary policies. On the fiscal front, evidence shows that greater fiscal space, like that of Chile and Peru, gives more room for accommodating terms-of-trade shocks.

Peru

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Peru Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 64 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2016-07-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475582741

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Peru by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Pdf

This Selected Issues paper presents a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile, Colombia, and Peru to commodity terms-of-trade shocks. The study is done in two steps: (1) an analysis of the impulse responses of key macroeconomic variables to terms-of-trade shocks and (2) an event study of the adjustment to the recent decline in commodity prices. The experiences of these countries highlight the importance of flexible exchange rates to help with the adjustment to lower commodity prices, and staying vigilant in addressing depreciation pressures on inflation through tightening monetary policies. On the fiscal front, evidence shows that greater fiscal space, like that of Chile and Peru, gives more room for accommodating terms-of-trade shocks.

The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru

Mr.Francisco Roch
The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile Colombia and Peru Book PDF

Author : Mr.Francisco Roch
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 25 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2017-09-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484320648

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The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru by Mr.Francisco Roch Pdf

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile, Colombia, and Peru to commodity terms-of-trade shocks. The study is done in two steps: (i) an analysis of the impulse responses of key macroeconomic variables to terms-of-trade shocks and (ii) an event study of the adjustment to the recent decline in commodity prices. The experiences of these countries highlight the importance of flexible exchange rates to help with the adjustment to lower commodity prices, and staying vigilant in addressing depreciation pressures on inflation through tightening monetary policies. On the fiscal front, evidence shows that greater fiscal space, like in Chile and Peru, gives more room for accommodating terms-of-trade shocks.

The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Priceson Fiscal Performance in Latin America

Leandro Medina
The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Priceson Fiscal Performance in Latin America Book PDF

Author : Leandro Medina
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 30 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2010-08-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455201747

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The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Priceson Fiscal Performance in Latin America by Leandro Medina Pdf

The recent boom and bust in commodity prices has raised concerns about the impact of volatile commodity prices on Latin American countries’ fiscal positions. Using a novel quarterly data set-which includes unique country-specific commodity price indices and a comprehensive measure of public expenditures-this paper analyzes the dynamic effects of commodity price fluctuations on fiscal revenues and expenditures for eight commodity-exporting Latin American countries. The results indicate that Latin American countries’ fiscal positions react strongly to shocks to commodity prices, yet there are marked differences across countries. Fiscal variables in Venezuela display the highest sensitivity to commodity price shocks, with expenditures reacting significantly more than revenues. At the other end of the spectrum, in Chile expenditure reacts very little to commodity price fluctuations, and the dynamic responses of its fiscal indicators are very similar to those seen in high-income commodity-exporting countries. This distinct behavior across countries may relate to institutional arrangements, which in some cases include the efficient application of fiscal rules amid political commitment and high standards of transparency.

Asymmetric Non-Commodity Output Responses to Commodity Price Shocks

Mr. Amine Mati,Ms. Monique Newiak,James Wilson
Asymmetric Non Commodity Output Responses to Commodity Price Shocks Book PDF

Author : Mr. Amine Mati,Ms. Monique Newiak,James Wilson
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 38 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2021-06-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513573359

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Asymmetric Non-Commodity Output Responses to Commodity Price Shocks by Mr. Amine Mati,Ms. Monique Newiak,James Wilson Pdf

This paper focuses on identifying potential asymmetric responses of non-commodity output growth in times of positive and negative commodity terms-of-trade shocks. Using a sample of 27 oil-exporting countries and a panel VAR method, the study finds: 1) the short-and medium-run response of real non-commodity GDP growth is larger for negative shocks than positive shocks; 2) this asymmetry is more pronounced in countries with weak pre-existing fundamentals–high levels of public debt and low levels of international reserves–which also serve to amplify the volatility of the response; 3) the output response to positive shocks is stronger following a sustained period of CTOT increases, while the impact of negative shocks on output are more damaging when they occur after a period of CTOT decline.

Commodity Cycles, Inequality, and Poverty in Latin America

Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan,Sandra Lizarazo,Marika Santoro,Mr. Frederik G Toscani,Mr. Mauricio Vargas
Commodity Cycles Inequality and Poverty in Latin America Book PDF

Author : Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan,Sandra Lizarazo,Marika Santoro,Mr. Frederik G Toscani,Mr. Mauricio Vargas
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 123 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2021-04-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484326091

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Commodity Cycles, Inequality, and Poverty in Latin America by Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan,Sandra Lizarazo,Marika Santoro,Mr. Frederik G Toscani,Mr. Mauricio Vargas Pdf

Over the past decades, inequality has risen not just in advanced economies but also in many emerging market and developing economies, becoming one of the key global policy challenges. And throughout the 20th century, Latin America was associated with some of the world’s highest levels of inequality. Yet something interesting happened in the first decade and a half of the 21st century. Latin America was the only region in the World to have experienced significant declines in inequality in that period. Poverty also fell in Latin America, although this was replicated in other regions, and Latin America started from a relatively low base. Starting around 2014, however, and even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, poverty and inequality gains had already slowed in Latin America and, in some cases, gone into reverse. And the COVID-19 shock, which is still playing out, is likely to dramatically worsen short-term poverty and inequality dynamics. Against this background, this departmental paper investigates the link between commodity prices, and poverty and inequality developments in Latin America.

Colombia

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Colombia Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 78 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2016-05-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484361153

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Colombia by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Pdf

This paper discusses key issues related to the Colombian economy. Despite adverse global circumstances, Colombia’s successful policies and inclusive growth agenda continued in 2015. Colombia’s strong policy framework helped ensure an orderly adjustment to the deteriorated external conditions. Although the medium-term outlook is favorable, it is surrounded by downside risks. The main near-term risks stem from Colombia’s still significant near-term external financing needs and potential capital inflow reversals, the result of volatile global financial conditions. On the upside, bringing the peace process to fruition could further improve business confidence and capital inflows, reinforcing the recovery that will follow the necessary adjustment process.

Commodity Shocks and Exchange Rate Regimes: Implications for the Caribbean Commodity Exporters

International Monetary Fund
Commodity Shocks and Exchange Rate Regimes Implications for the Caribbean Commodity Exporters Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 53 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2021-04-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513582597

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Commodity Shocks and Exchange Rate Regimes: Implications for the Caribbean Commodity Exporters by International Monetary Fund Pdf

Declining commodity prices during mid-2014-2016 posed significant challenges to commodity-exporting economies. The severe terms of trade shock associated with a sharp fall in world commodity prices have raised anew questions about the viability of pegged exchange rate regimes. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures needed to contain its spread have been associated with a significant disruption in several economic sectors, in particular, travel, tourism, and hospitality industry, adding to the downward pressure on commodity prices, a sharp fall in foreign exchange earnings, and depressed economic activity in most commodity exporters. This paper reviews country experiences with different exchange rate regimes in coping with commodity price shocks and explores the role of flexible exchange rates as a shock absorber, analyzing the macroeconomic impact of adverse term-of-trade shocks under different regimes using event study and panel vector autoregression techniques. It also analyzes, conceptually and empirically, policy and technical considerations in making exchange rate regime choices and discusses the supporting policies that should accompany a given regime choice to make that choice sustainable. It offers lessons that could be helpful to the Caribbean commodity-exporters.

Trinidad and Tobago

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Trinidad and Tobago Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 23 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2018-09-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484378182

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Trinidad and Tobago by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Pdf

This Selected Issues paper focuses on the impact of adjusting to commodity shocks in Trinidad and Tobago. With commodity resources being nonrenewable, developing a long-term strategy can help avoid unsustainable policies and ensure greater intergenerational equity. Recent country experiences highlight the benefits of precautionary buffers in smoothing fiscal adjustment process. Prudent and countercyclical fiscal policy implementation, structural reforms, and economic diversification can help contain the impact of commodity price booms and busts. Strong fiscal institutions are needed to help achieve and sustain the fiscal adjustment. Different adjustment strategies may be feasible depending on the needed size of the adjustment and country-specific circumstances. Trinidad and Tobago have faced several years of weak or negative growth on the back of terms-of-trade and energy supply shocks. A well-designed fiscal framework that considers potential uncertainties associated with commodity cycles can help improve fiscal management. Countercyclical policy implementation would help smooth the impact of commodity-induced sharp fluctuations in the economy.

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2017, Western Hemisphere Department

Mr.Hamid Faruqee
Regional Economic Outlook April 2017 Western Hemisphere Department Book PDF

Author : Mr.Hamid Faruqee
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2017-05-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475575392

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Regional Economic Outlook, April 2017, Western Hemisphere Department by Mr.Hamid Faruqee Pdf

With the global economy gaining some momentum, economies of Latin America and the Caribbean are recovering from a recession at the regional level in 2016. This gradual improvement can be understood as tale of two adjustments, external and fiscal, that are ongoing in response to earlier shocks. But headwinds from commodity terms-of-trade shocks and country-specific domestic factors are fading, paving the way for real GDP to grow by about 1 percent in 2017. Regional activity is expected to pick up further momentum in 2018, but at a slower pace than previously anticipated, while medium-term growth is projected to remain modest at about 2.6 percent. The outlook is shaped by key shifts in the global economic and policy landscape—where slow growth, low productivity, and high income inequality are creating pressure for a shift toward inward- looking policies in some advanced economies. Domestic fundamentals and developments, however, will continue to play a significant role in determining growth for the region. At the same time, risks to the outlook have widened in a setting of higher global uncertainty. In this challenging external context, countries should aim for completing fiscal and external adjustments to preserve or rebuild policy buffers. Charting a course toward higher, sustainable, and more equitable growth will also require strengthening structural reforms. Specifically, closing infrastructure gaps, improving the business environment, governance, and education outcomes, and encouraging female labor participation are necessary to boost medium-term growth and foster income convergence. Chapters in this report examine the ongoing external adjustment to terms-of-trade shifts, drivers of capital flows to the region, the role of the investor base, and macroeconomic impact of migration and remittances.

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Regional Economic Outlook April 2018 Western Hemisphere Department Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 134 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2018-05-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484339879

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Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Pdf

The world economy and global trade are experiencing a broad-based cyclical upswing. Since October 2017, global growth outcomes and the outlook for 2018–19 have improved across all regions, reinforced by the expected positive near-term spillovers from tax policy changes in the United States. Accommodative global financial conditions, despite some tightening and market volatility in early February 2018, have been providing support to economic recovery. Higher commodity prices are contributing to an improved outlook for commodity exporters. The US and Canadian economies posted solid gains in 2017 and are expected to grow above potential in the near term. Despite the improved near-term outlook, however, medium-term prospects are tilted downwards. Growth prospects for advanced economies are subdued and many emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow in per capita terms more slowly than advanced economies, raising concerns about income convergence. While risks appear broadly balanced in the near term, they skew to the downside over the medium term, including a possible sharp tightening of financial conditions, waning popular support for global economic integration, growing trade tensions and risks of a shift toward protectionist policies, and geopolitical strains.

IMF Research Bulletin, Fall 2017

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
IMF Research Bulletin Fall 2017 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 15 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2017-11-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484327234

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IMF Research Bulletin, Fall 2017 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf

The Fall 2017 IMF Research Bulletin includes a Q&A article covering "Seven Questions on the Globalization of Farmland" by Christian Bogmans. The first research summary, by Manmohan Singh and Haobing Wang is "Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies: Some Policy Implications." The second research summary is "Leaning Against the Windy Bank Lending" by Giovanni Melina and Stefania Villa. A listing of new IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes is featured, as well as new titles from IMF Publications. Information on IMF Economic Review is also included.

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2015: Western Hemisphere Department

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Regional Economic Outlook October 2015 Western Hemisphere Department Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 108 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2015-10-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513575209

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Regional Economic Outlook, October 2015: Western Hemisphere Department by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Pdf

Economies in the Western Hemisphere are generally seeing a slowdown in growth. The U.S. economy regained momentum after a slow start at the beginning of the year, while in Latin America and the Caribbean economic activity continues to decelerate. Stronger U.S. growth should benefit countries in the region, especially those with tighter links through trade, remittances, and tourism (Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean). Weaker commodity prices for the foreseeable future, however, will continue to hurt South America's net commodity exporters, lowering national incomes, reducing investment, and worsening fiscal balances. These developments could, in turn, impede progress made in recent years in poverty reduction. These developments could, in turn, impede progress made in recent years in poverty reduction. Key risks, including an abrupt tightening of U.S. interest rates or a further slowdown in China, may disproportionately affect Latin America. Chapters in this report examine monetary policy in Latin America, including the region’s exposure to global financial shocks; the role of value chains and regional trade agreements in fostering trade integration; and financial market development in the region.

Geosciences and the Sustainable Development Goals

Joel C. Gill,Martin Smith
Geosciences and the Sustainable Development Goals Book PDF

Author : Joel C. Gill,Martin Smith
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 474 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2021-04-12
Category : Science
ISBN : 9783030388157

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Geosciences and the Sustainable Development Goals by Joel C. Gill,Martin Smith Pdf

Meeting the targets of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires contributions by scientists focusing on understanding, monitoring, protecting, managing and restoring the natural environment, including geoscientists. This book presents the first detailed discussion on the role of the geological sciences (geosciences) community in the implementation of the SDGs. Unlike traditional geosciences textbooks, it is structured according to development priorities, framed in the context of the 17 SDGs. Written by international experts from diverse range of geosciences / development disciplines, it explores themes linked to both science and the professional practice of science (e.g., ethics, equity, conduct, and partnerships). The book is intended for graduate and senior undergraduate students in the earth sciences, as well as practicing geologists and experts from other sectors involved in sustainability initiatives.