The Blind Side Of Public Debt Spikes

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The Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes

Laura Jaramillo,Mr.Carlos Mulas-Granados,Elijah Kimani
The Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes Book PDF

Author : Laura Jaramillo,Mr.Carlos Mulas-Granados,Elijah Kimani
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 32 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2016-10-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475545043

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The Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes by Laura Jaramillo,Mr.Carlos Mulas-Granados,Elijah Kimani Pdf

What explains public debt spikes since the end of WWII? To answer this question, this paper identifies 179 debt spike episodes from 1945 to 2014 across advanced and developing countries. We find that debt spikes are not rare events and their probability increases with time. We then show that large public debt spikes are neither driven by high primary deficits nor by output declines but instead by sizable stock-flow adjustments (SFAs). We also find that SFAs are poorly forecasted, which can affect debt sustainability analyses, and are associated with a higher probability of suffering non-declining debt paths in the aftermath of public debt spikes.

Sovereign Debt

S. Ali Abbas,Alex Pienkowski,Kenneth Rogoff
Sovereign Debt Book PDF

Author : S. Ali Abbas,Alex Pienkowski,Kenneth Rogoff
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2019-10-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780192591395

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Sovereign Debt by S. Ali Abbas,Alex Pienkowski,Kenneth Rogoff Pdf

The last time global sovereign debt reached the level seen today was at the end of the Second World War, and this shaped a generation of economic policymaking. International institutions were transformed, country policies were often draconian and distortive, and many crises ensued. By the early 1970s, when debt fell back to pre-war levels, the world was radically different. It is likely that changes of a similar magnitude -for better and for worse - will play out over coming decades. Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject. Sovereign Debt brings together some of the world's leading researchers and specialists in sovereign debt to cover a range of sub-disciplines within this vast topic. It explores debt management with debt sustainability; debt reduction policies with crisis prevention policies; and the history with the conjuncture. It is a foundation text for all those interested in sovereign debt, with a particular focus real world examples and issues.

Debt Surges—Drivers, Consequences, and Policy Implications

Florian Schuster,Ms. Marwa Alnasaa,Lahcen Bounader,Il Jung,Jeta Menkulasi,Joana da Mota
Debt Surges Drivers Consequences and Policy Implications Book PDF

Author : Florian Schuster,Ms. Marwa Alnasaa,Lahcen Bounader,Il Jung,Jeta Menkulasi,Joana da Mota
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 53 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2024-03-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400268779

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Debt Surges—Drivers, Consequences, and Policy Implications by Florian Schuster,Ms. Marwa Alnasaa,Lahcen Bounader,Il Jung,Jeta Menkulasi,Joana da Mota Pdf

Many countries find themselves with elevated debt levels, increased debt vulnerabilities, and tight financing conditions, while also facing increased spending needs for development and transition to a greener economy. This paper aims to place the current debt landscape in a historical context and investigate the drivers of debt surges, to what degree they result in a crisis as well as examine post-surge debt trajectories and under what conditions debt follows a non-declining path. We find that fiscal policy and stock-flow adjustments play important roles in debt dynamics with the valuation effects arising from currency depreciation explaining more than half of stock flow adjustments in LICs. Debt surges are estimated to result in a financial crisis with a probability of 11–20 percent and spending-driven fiscal expansions during debt surges tend to result in a high probability of non-declining debt path.

The Economics of Discontent

Jean-Michel Paul
The Economics of Discontent Book PDF

Author : Jean-Michel Paul
Publisher : Tomson
Page : 354 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2019-06-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789811417306

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The Economics of Discontent by Jean-Michel Paul Pdf

The social contract that has underpinned growth and political stability in the Western world since World War II has broken down. Houses, health care and higher education have become unaffordable to a majority of people, while the burden of unregulated monopolies, globalization and uncontrolled immigration has fallen disproportionately on the lower and middle classes. Wrapped in political correctness, an increasingly out of touch Western elite continues catering to special interests and fails to grasp the urgency for change. Populist movements harnessing public anger appear unable to propose and implement effective solutions. The last financial crisis was bad enough. But the next crisis will spread deeper and wider. And yet we stand economically, politically and most of all intellectually unprepared. This book is the story of how we have arrived at the brink of disaster and how we can move away from the win-lose policies of recent decades to restore much-needed balance.

IMF Research Bulletin, December 2016

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
IMF Research Bulletin December 2016 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 16 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 2016-12-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475567083

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IMF Research Bulletin, December 2016 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf

The Research Summaries in this issue of the IMF Research Bulletin cover “Tax Capacity and Growth” (by Vitor Gaspar, Laura Jaramillo, and Philippe Wingender), and “U.S. Shale Revolution and Its Spillover Effects on the Global Economy” (Ravi Balakrishnan, Keiko Honjo, Akito Matsumoto, and Andrea Pescatori). The Q&A coauthored by Amadou Sy and Mariama Sow covers “Seven Questions about the Relationship between Country Finance and Governance.” A listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from IMF Publications is included in the IMF Research Bulletin. Readers can also find news on free-to-view articles from IMF Economic Review and a call for conference papers in this issue of the Bulletin.

The Sustainability of Asia’s Debt

Ferrarini, Benno,Giugale, Marcelo M.,Pradelli, Juan J.
The Sustainability of Asia s Debt Book PDF

Author : Ferrarini, Benno,Giugale, Marcelo M.,Pradelli, Juan J.
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 456 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2022-02-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781800883727

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The Sustainability of Asia’s Debt by Ferrarini, Benno,Giugale, Marcelo M.,Pradelli, Juan J. Pdf

This is an open access title available under the terms of a [CC BY 3.0 IGO] License. It is free to read, download and share on Elgaronline.com. Asia has shown the world what success in economic development looks like. From the amazing transformations of Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the other ‘tigers’ in the early 70s, to the more recent takeoffs of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), India, and the leading economies in Southeast Asia, the region has prospered at a startling pace. Technologies were adopted, productivity raised, and export markets conquered. Billions were lifted out of poverty. What was once a backwater is now a global engine of growth.

Global Waves of Debt

M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara
Global Waves of Debt Book PDF

Author : M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 403 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2021-03-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464815454

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Global Waves of Debt by M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara Pdf

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Public Debt Through the Ages

Mr.Barry J. Eichengreen,Ms.Asmaa A ElGanainy,Rui Pedro Esteves,Kris James Mitchener
Public Debt Through the Ages Book PDF

Author : Mr.Barry J. Eichengreen,Ms.Asmaa A ElGanainy,Rui Pedro Esteves,Kris James Mitchener
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 60 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2019-01-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484392898

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Public Debt Through the Ages by Mr.Barry J. Eichengreen,Ms.Asmaa A ElGanainy,Rui Pedro Esteves,Kris James Mitchener Pdf

We consider public debt from a long-term historical perspective, showing how the purposes for which governments borrow have evolved over time. Periods when debt-to-GDP ratios rose explosively as a result of wars, depressions and financial crises also have a long history. Many of these episodes resulted in debt-management problems resolved through debasements and restructurings. Less widely appreciated are successful debt consolidation episodes, instances in which governments inheriting heavy debts ran primary surpluses for long periods in order to reduce those burdens to sustainable levels. We analyze the economic and political circumstances that made these successful debt consolidation episodes possible.

A Historical Public Debt Database

International Monetary Fund
A Historical Public Debt Database Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2010-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455209453

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A Historical Public Debt Database by International Monetary Fund Pdf

This paper describes the compilation of the first truly comprehensive database on gross government debt-to-GDP ratios, covering nearly the entire IMF membership (174 countries) and spanning an exceptionally long time period. The database was constructed by bringing together a number of other datasets and information from original sources. For the most recent years, the data are linked to the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) database to facilitate regular updates. The paper discusses the evolution of debt-to-GDP ratios across country groups for several decades, episodes of debt spikes and reversals, and a pattern of negative correlation between debt and growth.

The 2030 Spike

Colin Mason
The 2030 Spike Book PDF

Author : Colin Mason
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 256 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2013-06-17
Category : Law
ISBN : 9781136555114

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The 2030 Spike by Colin Mason Pdf

The clock is relentlessly ticking! Our world teeters on a knife-edge between a peaceful and prosperous future for all, and a dark winter of death and destruction that threatens to smother the light of civilization. Within 30 years, in the 2030 decade, six powerful 'drivers' will converge with unprecedented force in a statistical spike that could tear humanity apart and plunge the world into a new Dark Age. Depleted fuel supplies, massive population growth, poverty, global climate change, famine, growing water shortages and international lawlessness are on a crash course with potentially catastrophic consequences. In the face of both doomsaying and denial over the state of our world, Colin Mason cuts through the rhetoric and reams of conflicting data to muster the evidence to illustrate a broad picture of the world as it is, and our possible futures. Ultimately his message is clear; we must act decisively, collectively and immediately to alter the trajectory of humanity away from catastrophe. Offering over 100 priorities for immediate action, The 2030 Spike serves as a guidebook for humanity through the treacherous minefields and wastelands ahead to a bright, peaceful and prosperous future in which all humans have the opportunity to thrive and build a better civilization. This book is powerful and essential reading for all people concerned with the future of humanity and planet earth.

The Great Inflation

Michael D. Bordo,Athanasios Orphanides
The Great Inflation Book PDF

Author : Michael D. Bordo,Athanasios Orphanides
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 545 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2013-06-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226066950

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The Great Inflation by Michael D. Bordo,Athanasios Orphanides Pdf

Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.

Public Sector Debt Statistics

International Monetary Fund
Public Sector Debt Statistics Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 230 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2011-12-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781616351564

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Public Sector Debt Statistics by International Monetary Fund Pdf

The global financial crisis of recent years and the associated large fiscal deficits and debt levels that have impacted many countries underscores the importance of reliable and timely government statistics and, more broadly, public sector debt as a critical element in countries fiscal and external sustainability. Public Sector Debt Statistics is the first international guide of its kind, and its primary objectives are to improve the quality and timeliness of key debt statistics and promote a convergence of recording practices to foster international comparability and as a reference for national compilers and users for compiling and disseminating these data. Like other statistical guides published by the IMF, this one was prepared in consultation with countries and international agencies, including the nine organizations of the Inter-Agency Task Force on Finance Statistics (TFFS). The guide's preparation was based on the broad range of experience of our institutions and benefitted from consultation with national compilers of government finance and public sector debt statistics. The guide's concepts are harmonized with those of the System of National Accounts (2008) and the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, Sixth Edition.

Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications

Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose
Financial Crises Explanations Types and Implications Book PDF

Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 66 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2013-01-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475561005

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Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications by Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose Pdf

This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

Hidden Debt

Martin Melecky
Hidden Debt Book PDF

Author : Martin Melecky
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 271 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2021-07-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464816680

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Hidden Debt by Martin Melecky Pdf

The COVID-19 crisis, which has sent economies in South Asia and around the world into a deep recession, has highlighted South Asia’s rising debt levels and sizable hidden liabilities. State-owned enterprises, state-owned commercial banks, and public-private partnerships have been at the center of the rising debt wave and the latest pandemic response. Historically,South Asia has relied on these direct public interventions more than other regions. The interventions have helped governments tackle key development challenges and rapidly deliver relief measures during crises. However, because of their inefficiencies and weak governance, the interventions are also a significant source of public indebtedness and macrofinancial risks. Hidden Debt examines the trade-off between tackling development challenges through direct state presence in the market and avoiding unsustainable debt due to economic inefficiencies of such off†“balance sheet operations, which greatly leverage public capital. The study recommends a reform agenda based on the four interrelated principles of purpose, incentives, transparency, and accountability (PITA). The reforms can mitigate the risks that off†“balance sheet operations will become the source of the next financial crisis in South Asia.

The Revolt of The Public and the Crisis of Authority in the New Millennium

Martin Gurri
The Revolt of The Public and the Crisis of Authority in the New Millennium Book PDF

Author : Martin Gurri
Publisher : Stripe Press
Page : 465 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2018-12-04
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781953953346

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The Revolt of The Public and the Crisis of Authority in the New Millennium by Martin Gurri Pdf

How insurgencies—enabled by digital devices and a vast information sphere—have mobilized millions of ordinary people around the world. In the words of economist and scholar Arnold Kling, Martin Gurri saw it coming. Technology has categorically reversed the information balance of power between the public and the elites who manage the great hierarchical institutions of the industrial age: government, political parties, the media. The Revolt of the Public tells the story of how insurgencies, enabled by digital devices and a vast information sphere, have mobilized millions of ordinary people around the world. Originally published in 2014, The Revolt of the Public is now available in an updated edition, which includes an extensive analysis of Donald Trump’s improbable rise to the presidency and the electoral triumphs of Brexit. The book concludes with a speculative look forward, pondering whether the current elite class can bring about a reformation of the democratic process and whether new organizing principles, adapted to a digital world, can arise out of the present political turbulence.