The Business Cycle

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Beating the Business Cycle

Lakshman Achuthan,Anirvan Banerji
Beating the Business Cycle Book PDF

Author : Lakshman Achuthan,Anirvan Banerji
Publisher : Crown Currency
Page : 210 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2004-05-18
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780385512589

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Beating the Business Cycle by Lakshman Achuthan,Anirvan Banerji Pdf

How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed? The answer is, you can’t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE shows you how. In BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy. Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI’s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the “secret weapon” of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks. BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels–managers, small business owners, and individuals–can see into the economy’s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day? Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE reveals which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times–even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.

Business Cycles

Lars Tvede
Business Cycles Book PDF

Author : Lars Tvede
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 512 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2006-05-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UOM:39015064716163

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Business Cycles by Lars Tvede Pdf

During our lifetime we experience any number of business cycle crises which undermine our confidence and lead many to their ruin. We also experience the ‘happy days’ when our faith in the future becomes almost limitless, and when we forget that tides always turn again. So how can we better understand and predict these cycles? To answer these questions Lars Tvede takes us through a story that moves back in time to the Scottish gambler and financial genius, John Law, and then on to the distracted Adam Smith, the stockbroker Ricardo, the investment banker Thornton, the extrovert Schumpeter, the speculator Gould and many others to trace the theory and reality of business cycles, as it has evolved over 300 years. Gradually we reach the computer jugglers of the modern day who, with giant networks of equations, try to solve the same questions that have attracted the attention of classical economists throughout the centuries. Lars Tvede concludes this historical journey with a summary of what the core of the problem is and how modern understanding of business cycles can be used to forecast economic fluctuations. The final sections of the book provide detailed studies and explanations to of how stocks, bonds, hedge funds, private equity funds, gold, diamonds, exchange rates, real estate, commodities, art and collectibles, and numerous sub-sectors of some of these markets each behave over different categories of business cycles.

Business Cycles

Lars Tvede
Business Cycles Book PDF

Author : Lars Tvede
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 362 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2013-02-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781134697977

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Business Cycles by Lars Tvede Pdf

Why do we experience business cycles? What creates them? Is it mass psychology, or phenomena in the management of business? Are the banks to blame or should we be looking to the unions and the politicians? Lars Tvede's story moves back in time to the Scottish gambler and financial genius, John Law, and then on to the distracted Adam Smith, the stockbroker Ricardo, the investment banker Thornton, the extrovert Schumpeter, the speculator Jay Gould and many others. The computer jugglers of the modern day, with giant networks of equations, try to solve the same questions that have attracted the attention of classical economists throughout the centuries. Throughout this volume, business cycle theories are used to explain actual events. Theoretical thinking has reflected the economist's own experiences of hyper-inflations, depressions, speculation orgies and liquidity squeezes. The reader can follow the narrative to discover how economists often thought that problems had been solved until new data changed the economic picture once again.

The Birth of the Business Cycle (RLE: Business Cycles)

Philip E. Mirowski
The Birth of the Business Cycle RLE Business Cycles Book PDF

Author : Philip E. Mirowski
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 259 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2015-03-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317512226

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The Birth of the Business Cycle (RLE: Business Cycles) by Philip E. Mirowski Pdf

Discussing economic theory and English economic history from the eighteenth century until the late 1970s this volume discusses among other things fixed capital and problems with the definition of the premodern economy as well as providing a chronology of 18th century business cycles.

The Business Cycle

Howard J. Sherman
The Business Cycle Book PDF

Author : Howard J. Sherman
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 469 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2014-07-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781400862047

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The Business Cycle by Howard J. Sherman Pdf

Are the recurring recessions of the capitalist world merely short-term adjustments to changing economic circumstances in a system that tends, in general, toward equilibrium? In this accessible study of the business cycle, Howard Sherman makes a powerful case that recessions and painful involuntary unemployment are endogenous to capitalism. Drawing especially on the work of Wesley Clair Mitchell, Karl Marx, and John M. Keynes, Sherman explains why the nature of the business cycle produces serious economic loss and misery during its contraction phase, just as it produces growth in its expansion phase. Originally published in 1991. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.

The American Business Cycle

Robert J. Gordon
The American Business Cycle Book PDF

Author : Robert J. Gordon
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 882 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2007-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226304595

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The American Business Cycle by Robert J. Gordon Pdf

In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.

Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle

Jordi Galí
Monetary Policy Inflation and the Business Cycle Book PDF

Author : Jordi Galí
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 295 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2015-06-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781400866274

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Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle by Jordi Galí Pdf

The classic introduction to the New Keynesian economic model This revised second edition of Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle provides a rigorous graduate-level introduction to the New Keynesian framework and its applications to monetary policy. The New Keynesian framework is the workhorse for the analysis of monetary policy and its implications for inflation, economic fluctuations, and welfare. A backbone of the new generation of medium-scale models under development at major central banks and international policy institutions, the framework provides the theoretical underpinnings for the price stability–oriented strategies adopted by most central banks in the industrialized world. Using a canonical version of the New Keynesian model as a reference, Jordi Galí explores various issues pertaining to monetary policy's design, including optimal monetary policy and the desirability of simple policy rules. He analyzes several extensions of the baseline model, allowing for cost-push shocks, nominal wage rigidities, and open economy factors. In each case, the effects on monetary policy are addressed, with emphasis on the desirability of inflation-targeting policies. New material includes the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and an analysis of unemployment’s significance for monetary policy. The most up-to-date introduction to the New Keynesian framework available A single benchmark model used throughout New materials and exercises included An ideal resource for graduate students, researchers, and market analysts

Frontiers of Business Cycle Research

Thomas F. Cooley
Frontiers of Business Cycle Research Book PDF

Author : Thomas F. Cooley
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 452 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 1995-02-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 069104323X

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Frontiers of Business Cycle Research by Thomas F. Cooley Pdf

This introduction to modern business cycle theory uses a neoclassical growth framework to study the economic fluctuations associated with the business cycle. Presenting advances in dynamic economic theory and computational methods, it applies concepts to t

Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting

James H. Stock,Mark W. Watson
Business Cycles Indicators and Forecasting Book PDF

Author : James H. Stock,Mark W. Watson
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 350 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2008-04-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226774749

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Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting by James H. Stock,Mark W. Watson Pdf

The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.

Business Cycles in Economic Thought

Alain Alcouffe,Monika Poettinger,Bertram Schefold
Business Cycles in Economic Thought Book PDF

Author : Alain Alcouffe,Monika Poettinger,Bertram Schefold
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 425 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2017-01-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317207788

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Business Cycles in Economic Thought by Alain Alcouffe,Monika Poettinger,Bertram Schefold Pdf

Business Cycles in Economic Thought underlines how, over the time span of two centuries, economic thought interacted with cycles in a continuous renewal of theories and rethinking of policies, whilst economic actions embedded themselves into past economic thought. This book argues that studying crises and periods of growth in different European countries will help to understand how different national, political and cultural traditions influenced the complex interaction of economic cycles and economic theorizing. The editors of this great volume bring together expert contributors consisting of economists, historians of economic thought and historians of economics, to analyse crises and theories of the nineteenth and the twentieth century. This is alongside a comprehensive outlook on the most relevant advances of economic theory in France, Germany and Italy, as well as coverage of non-European countries, such as the United States. Several of the highly prestigious Villa Vigoni Trilateral Conferences formed the background for the discussions in this book. This volume is of great interest to students and academics who study history of economic thought, political economy and macroeconomics.

Business Cycle Theory

Günter Gabisch,Hans-Walter Lorenz
Business Cycle Theory Book PDF

Author : Günter Gabisch,Hans-Walter Lorenz
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 240 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2013-04-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783662011782

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Business Cycle Theory by Günter Gabisch,Hans-Walter Lorenz Pdf

"Is the business cycle obsolete?" This often cited title of a book edited by Bronfenbren ner with the implicit affirmation of the question reflected the attitude of mainstream macroeconomics in the Sixties regarding the empirical relevance of cyclic motions of an economy. The successful income policies, theoretically grounded in Keynesian macroec onomics, seemed to have eased or even abolished the fluctuations in West,ern economies which motivated studies of many classical and neoclassical economists for more than 100 years. The reasoning behind the conviction that business cycles would increasingly become irrelevant was rather simple: if an economy fluctuates for whatever reason, then it is almost always possible to neutralize these cyclic motions by means of anti-cyclic demand policies. From the 1950's until the mid-Sixties business cycle theory had often been consid ered either as an appendix to growth theory or as an academic exercise in dynamical economics. The common business cycle models were essentially multiplier-accelerator models whose sensitive dependence on parameter values (in order to be called busi ness cycle models) suggested a rather improbable occurrence of continuing oscillations. The obvious success in compensating business cycles in those days prevented intensive concern with the occurrence of cycles. Rather, business cycle theory turned into sta bilization theory which investigated theoretical possibilities of stabilizing a fluctuating economy. Many macroeconomic textbooks appeared in the Sixties which consequently identified business cycle theory with inquiries on the possibilities to stabilize economies 2 Introduction by means of active fiscal or monetary policies.

Business Cycles

Francis X. Diebold,Glenn D. Rudebusch
Business Cycles Book PDF

Author : Francis X. Diebold,Glenn D. Rudebusch
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 438 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2020-10-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780691219585

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Business Cycles by Francis X. Diebold,Glenn D. Rudebusch Pdf

This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.

Business Cycle Economics

Todd A. Knoop
Business Cycle Economics Book PDF

Author : Todd A. Knoop
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing USA
Page : 417 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2015-02-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781440831751

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Business Cycle Economics by Todd A. Knoop Pdf

Presents the empirical data of business cycles and the theories that economists have developed to explain and prevent them, and considers case studies of recessions and depressions in the United States and internationally. Despite more than two centuries of debate, a definitive explanation of the causes of economic cycles still does not exist. Economists, politicians, and policymakers have argued many well-known theories as to why these peaks and slumps occur, and cyclical recessions and depressions continue in spite of the enormous intellectual reserves working to prevent them. This timely analysis presents a comprehensive overview of global economics, assessing older theories alongside of new ways of thinking to reveal the empirical methods needed to evaluate, forecast, and prevent future crises. Educator and economist Todd Knoop provides explanations of influential macroeconomic theories that have shaped modern economics, such as Keynesian economics, Neoclassical economics, Austrian economics, and New Keynesian economics. In addition, he considers case studies of specific recessions and depressions, beginning with the Great Depression through the East Asian crisis and Great Recession in Japan and culminating with a detailed examination of the European debt crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis. The work concludes with a look at the insights gained from these fiscal events as well as the major questions that still remain unanswered as a result of these crises.

Real Business Cycles

James Hartley,Kevin Hoover,Kevin D. Salyer
Real Business Cycles Book PDF

Author : James Hartley,Kevin Hoover,Kevin D. Salyer
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 684 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2013-07-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781134694792

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Real Business Cycles by James Hartley,Kevin Hoover,Kevin D. Salyer Pdf

Real Business Cycle theory combines the remains of monetarism with the new classical macroeconomics, and has become one of the dominant approaches within contemporary macroeconomics today. This volume presents: * the authoritative anthology in RBC. The work contains the major articles introducing and extending the theory as well as critical literature * an extensive introduction which contains an expository summary and critical evaluation of RBC theory * comprehensive coverage and balance between seminal papers and extensions; proponents and critics; and theory and empirics. Macroeconomics is a compulsory element in most economics courses, and this book will be an essential guide to one of its major theories.

Business Cycles and Depressions

David Glasner
Business Cycles and Depressions Book PDF

Author : David Glasner
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 800 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2013-12-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781136545276

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Business Cycles and Depressions by David Glasner Pdf

Experts define, review, and evaluate economic fluctuations Economic and business uncertainty dominate today's economic analyses. This new Encyclopedia illuminates the subject by offering 323 original articles on every major aspect of business cycles, fluctuations, financial crises, recessions, and depressions. The work of more than 200 experts, including many of the leading researchers in the field, the articles cover a broad range of subjects, including capsule biographies of leading economists born before 1920. Individual entries explore banking panics, the cobweb cycle, consumer durables, the depression of 1937-1938, Otto Eckstein, Friedrich Engels, experimental price bubbles, forced savings, lass-Steagall Act, Friedrich hagen, qualitative indicators, use of macro-econometric models, monetary neutrality, Phillips Curve, Paul Samuelson, Say's law, supply-side recessions, James Tokin, trend and random wages, Thorstein Veblen, worker-job turnover, and more.