The Determinants Of Banking Crises Evidence From Developing And Developed Countries
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The Determinants of Banking Crises - Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries by Asli Demirgüç-Kunt,Enrica Detragiache Pdf
The paper studies the factors associated with the emergence of systemic banking crises in a large sample of developed and developing countries in 1980–94, using a multivariate logit econometric model. the results suggest that crises tend to erupt when the macroeconomic environment is weak, particularly when growth is low and inflation is high. Also, high real interest rates are clearly associated with systemic banking sector problems, and there is some evidence that vulnerability to balance of payments crises has played a role. Countries with an explicit deposit insurance scheme were particularly at risk, as were countries with weak law enforcement.
The Determinants of Banking Crises by Asli Demirgüç-Kunt Pdf
The paper studies the factors associated with the emergence of systemic banking crises in a large sample of developed and developing countries in 1980-94, using a multivariate logit econometric model. The results suggest that crises tend to erupt when the macroeconomic environment is weak, particularly when growth is low and inflation is high. Also, high real interest rates are clearly associated with systemic banking sector problems, and there is some evidence that vulnerability to balance of payments crises has played a role. Countries with an explicit deposit insurance scheme were particularly at risk, as were countries with weak law enforcement.
The Determinants of Banking Crises: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries by Asli Demirgüç-Kunt Pdf
September 1997 Vulnerability to crises in the banking sector appears to be associated with these factors: a weak macroeconomic environment characterized by slow GDP growth and high inflation, vulnerability to sudden capital outflows, low liquidity in the banking sector, a high share of credit to the private sector, past credit growth, the existence of explicit deposit insurance, and weak institutions. In the 1980s and 1990s several countries experienced banking crises. Demirgüç-Kunt and Detragiache try to identify features of the economic environment that tend to breed problems in the banking sector. They do so by econometrically estimating the probability of a systemic crisis, applying a multivariate logit model to data from a large panel of countries, both industrial and developing, for the period 1980-94. Included in the panel as controls are countries that never experienced banking problems. The authors find that crises tend to occur in a weak macroeconomic environment characterized by slow GDP growth and high inflation. When these effects are controlled for, neither the rate of currency depreciation nor the fiscal deficit are significant. Also associated with a higher probability of crisis are vulnerability to sudden capital outflows, low liquidity in the banking sector, a high share of credit to the private sector, and past credit growth. Another factor significantly (and robustly) associated with increased vulnerability in the banking sector is the presence of explicit deposit insurance, suggesting that moral hazard has played a major role. Finally, countries with weak institutions (as measured by a law and order index) are more likely to experience crises. This paper-a product of the Development Research Group, World Bank, and the Research Department, International Monetary Fund-is part of a larger effort to understand the causes of banking crises.
The Determinants of Banking Crises by Asli Demirgüç-Kunt Pdf
Vulnerability to crises in the banking sector appears to be associated with these factors: a weak macroeconomic environment characterized by slow GDP growth and high inflation, vulnerability to sudden capital outflows, low liquidity in the banking sector, a high share of credit to the private sector, past credit growth, the existence of explicit deposit insurance, and weak institutions.In the 1980s and 1990s several countries experienced banking crises. Demirguuml;ccedil;-Kunt and Detragiache try to identify features of the economic environment that tend to breed problems in the banking sector.They do so by econometrically estimating the probability of a systemic crisis, applying a multivariate logit model to data from a large panel of countries, both industrial and developing, for the period 1980-94. Included in the panel as controls are countries that never experienced banking problems.The authors find that crises tend to occur in a weak macroeconomic environment characterized by slow GDP growth and high inflation. When these effects are controlled for, neither the rate of currency depreciation nor the fiscal deficit are significant.Also associated with a higher probability of crisis are vulnerability to sudden capital outflows, low liquidity in the banking sector, a high share of credit to the private sector, and past credit growth.Another factor significantly (and robustly) associated with increased vulnerability in the banking sector is the presence of explicit deposit insurance, suggesting that moral hazard has played a major role.Finally, countries with weak institutions (as measured by a law and order index) are more likely to experience crises.This paper-a product of the Development Research Group, World Bank, and the Research Department, International Monetary Fund-is part of a larger effort to understand the causes of banking crises.
IMF Lending and Banking Crises by Luca Papi,Andrea Presbitero,Alberto Zazzaro Pdf
This paper looks at the effects of International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending programs on banking crises in a large sample of developing countries, over the period 1970-2010. The endogeneity of the IMF intervention is addressed by adopting an instrumental variable strategy and a propensity score matching estimator. Controlling for the standard determinants of banking crises, our results indicate that countries participating in IMF-supported lending programs are significantly less likely to experience a future banking crisis than nonborrowing countries. We also provide evidence suggesting that compliance with conditionality and loan size matter.
Foreign Bank Participation and Crises in Developing Countries by Robert J. Cull,Maria Soledad Martinez Peria Pdf
This paper describes the recent trends in foreign bank ownership in developing countries, summarizes the existing evidence on the causes and implications of foreign bank presence, and reexamines the link between banking crises and foreign bank participation. Using data on the share of banking sector assets held by foreign banks in over 100 developing countries during 1995-2002, the results show that countries that experienced a banking crisis tended to have higher levels of foreign bank participation than those that did not. Furthermore, panel regressions indicate that foreign participation increased as a result of crises rather than prior to them. However, post-crisis increases in foreign participation did not coincide with increased credit to the private sector, perhaps because in many cases foreign banks acquired distressed banks.
What Caused the Global Financial Crisis by Erlend Nier,Ouarda Merrouche Pdf
This paper investigates empirically the drivers of financial imbalances ahead of the global financial crisis. Three factors may have contributed to the build-up of financial imbalances: (i) rising global imbalances (capital flows), (ii) monetary policy that might have been too loose, (iii) inadequate supervision and regulation. Panel data regressions are performed for OECD countries from 1999 to 2007, so as to shed light on the relative importance of these factors, as well as the extent to which these factors might have interacted in fuelling the build-up. We find that the build-up of financial imbalances was driven by capital inflows and an associated compression of the spread between long and short rates. The effect of capital inflows on the build-up is amplified where the supervisory and regulatory environment was relatively weak. We find that, by contrast, differences in monetary policy cannot account for differences across countries in the build-up of financial imbalances ahead of the crisis.
Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey by Anonim Pdf
A rapidly growing empirical literature is studying the causes and consequences of bank fragility in present-day economies. The paper reviews the two basic methodologies adopted in cross-country empirical studies-the signals approach and the multivariate probability model-and their application to studying the determinants of banking crises. The use of these models to provide early warnings for crises is also reviewed, as are studies of the economic effects of banking crises and of the policies to forestall them. The paper concludes by identifying directions for future research.
The Impact of Conflict and Political Instability on Banking Crises in Developing Countries by Ali Compaoré,Mr.Montfort Mlachila,Rasmané Ouedraogo,Sandrine Sourouema Pdf
While there is an extensive literature examining the economic impact of conflict and political instability, surprisingly there have been few studies on their impact on the probability of banking crises. This paper therefore investigates whether rising conflict and political instability globally over the past several decades led to increased occurrence of banking crises in developing countries. The paper provides strong evidence that conflicts and political instability are indeed associated with higher probability of systemic banking crises. Unsurprisingly, the duration of a conflict is positively associated with rising probability of a banking crisis. Interestingly, the paper also finds that conflicts and political instability in one country can have negative spillover effects on neighboring countries’ banking systems. The paper provides evidence that the primary channel of transmission is the occurrence of fiscal crises following a conflict or political instability.
Author : Carmen M. Reinhart,Kenneth S. Rogoff Publisher : World Bank Publications Page : 37 pages File Size : 51,7 Mb Release : 2009 Category : Bank failures ISBN : 8210379456XXX
Banking on Crises by Carmen M. Reinhart,Kenneth S. Rogoff Pdf
The historical frequency of banking crises is quite similar in high- and middle-to-low-income countries, with quantitative and qualitative parallels in both the run-ups and the aftermath. We establish these regularities using a unique dataset spanning from Denmark's financial panic during the Napoleonic War to the ongoing global financial crisis sparked by subprime mortgage defaults in the United States.Banking crises dramatically weaken fiscal positions in both groups, with government revenues invariably contracting, and fiscal expenditures often expanding sharply. Three years after a financial crisis central government debt increases, on average, by about 86 percent. Thus the fiscal burden of banking crisis extends far beyond the commonly cited cost of the bailouts. Our new dataset includes housing price data for emerging markets; these allow us to show that the real estate price cycles around banking crises are similar in duration and amplitude to those in advanced economies, with the busts averaging four to six years. Corroborating earlier work, we find that systemic banking crises are typically preceded by asset price bubbles, large capital inflows and credit booms, in rich and poor countries alike.
How Do Banking Crises Affect Bilateral Exports? by Mr.Youssouf Kiendrebeogo Pdf
This paper investigates whether banking crises are associated with declines in bilateral exports. We first develop a simple open economy model in which banking crises translate into negative liquidity shocks, leading to collapses in exports through supply-side and demand-side shocks. We then estimate a gravity model using a sample of developed and developing countries over the period 1988-2010. The results suggest that crisis-hit countries experience lower levels of bilateral exports, particularly in developing countries where supply-side shocks are found to be relatively more important than demand shocks. In developing countries, exports of manufactured goods are disproportionately hurt by banking crises and this negative effect is stronger in industries relying more on external finance. These findings are robust to correcting for potential endogeneity, to changes in the sample, and to alternative estimation methods.
Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications by Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose Pdf
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Global Waves of Debt by M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara Pdf
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
The Determinants of Cross-border Bank Flows to Emerging Markets by Sabine Herrmann,Dubravko Mihaljek Pdf
This paper studies the nature of spillover effects in bank lending flows from advanced to the emerging market economies and identifies specific channels through which such effects occur. Based on a gravity model we examine a panel data set on cross-border bank flows from 17 advanced to 28 emerging market economies in Asia, Latin America and central and eastern Europe from 1993 to 2008. The empirical analysis suggests that global as well as country specific factors are significant determinants of cross-border bank flows. Greater global risk aversion and expected financial market volatility seem to have been the most important factors behind the decrease in cross-border bank flows during the crisis of 2007-08. The decrease in cross-border loans to central and eastern Europe was more limited compared to Asia and Latin America, in large measure because of the higher degree of financial and monetary integration in Europe, and relatively sound banking systems in the region. These results are robust to various specification, sub-samples and econometric methodologies.
Author : International Monetary Fund Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 88 pages File Size : 55,6 Mb Release : 2014-12-22 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781498342438
From Banking to Sovereign Stress - Implications For Public Debt by International Monetary Fund Pdf
This paper explores how banking sector developments and characteristics influence the propagation of risks from the banking sector to sovereign debt, including how they affect the extent of fiscal costs of banking crises when those occur. It then proposes practices and policies for the fiscal authorities to help manage the risks and enhance crisis preparedness.
