The Doomsday Calculation

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The Doomsday Calculation

William Poundstone
The Doomsday Calculation Book PDF

Author : William Poundstone
Publisher : Little, Brown Spark
Page : 320 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2019-06-04
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780316440714

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The Doomsday Calculation by William Poundstone Pdf

From the author of Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google?, a fascinating look at how an equation that foretells the future is transforming everything we know about life, business, and the universe. In the 18th century, the British minister and mathematician Thomas Bayes devised a theorem that allowed him to assign probabilities to events that had never happened before. It languished in obscurity for centuries until computers came along and made it easy to crunch the numbers. Now, as the foundation of big data, Bayes' formula has become a linchpin of the digital economy. But here's where things get really interesting: Bayes' theorem can also be used to lay odds on the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence; on whether we live in a Matrix-like counterfeit of reality; on the "many worlds" interpretation of quantum theory being correct; and on the biggest question of all: how long will humanity survive? The Doomsday Calculation tells how Silicon Valley's profitable formula became a controversial pivot of contemporary thought. Drawing on interviews with thought leaders around the globe, it's the story of a group of intellectual mavericks who are challenging what we thought we knew about our place in the universe. The Doomsday Calculation is compelling reading for anyone interested in our culture and its future.

The Doomsday Equation

Matt Richtel
The Doomsday Equation Book PDF

Author : Matt Richtel
Publisher : HarperCollins
Page : 384 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2015-02-24
Category : Fiction
ISBN : 9780062201195

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The Doomsday Equation by Matt Richtel Pdf

From the Pulitzer Prize-winning New York Times journalist and author of A Deadly Wandering comes a pulse-pounding technological thriller—as ingenious as the works of Michael Crichton and as urgent and irresistible as an episode of 24—in which one man has three days to prevent annihilation: the outbreak of World War III. Computer genius Jeremy Stillwater has designed a machine that can predict global conflicts and ultimately head them off. But he’s a stubborn guy, very sure of his own genius, and has wound up making enemies, and even seen his brilliant invention discredited. There’s nowhere for him to turn when the most remarkable thing happens: his computer beeps with warning that the outbreak of World War III is imminent, three days and counting. Alone, armed with nothing but his own ingenuity, he embarks on quest to find the mysterious and powerful nemesis determined to destroy mankind. But enemies lurk in the shadows waiting to strike. Could they have figured out how to use Jeremy, and his invention, for their own evil ends? Before he can save billions of lives, Jeremy has to figure out how to save his own. . . .

How to Predict Everything

William Poundstone
How to Predict Everything Book PDF

Author : William Poundstone
Publisher : Oneworld
Page : 320 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2020-04-02
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1786077566

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How to Predict Everything by William Poundstone Pdf

How do you predict something that has never happened before? There's a useful calculation being employed by Wall Street, Silicon Valley and maths professors all over the world, and it predicts that the human species will become extinct in 760 years. Unfortunately, there is disagreement over how to apply the formula, and some argue that we might only have twenty years left. Originally devised by British clergyman Thomas Bayes, the theorem languished in obscurity for two hundred years before being resurrected as the lynchpin of the digital economy. With brief detours into archaeology, philology, and overdue library books, William Poundstone explains how we can use it to predict pretty much anything. What is the chance that there are multiple universes? How long will Hamilton run? Will the US stock market continue to perform as well this century as it has for the last hundred years? And are we really all doomed?

Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google?

William Poundstone
Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google Book PDF

Author : William Poundstone
Publisher : Little, Brown Spark
Page : 224 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 2012-01-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780316192972

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Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google? by William Poundstone Pdf

You are shrunk to the height of a nickel and thrown in a blender. The blades start moving in 60 seconds. What do you do? If you want to work at Google, or any of America's best companies, you need to have an answer to this and other puzzling questions. Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google? guides readers through the surprising solutions to dozens of the most challenging interview questions. The book covers the importance of creative thinking, ways to get a leg up on the competition, what your Facebook page says about you, and much more. Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google? is a must-read for anyone who wants to succeed in today's job market.

Rock Breaks Scissors

William Poundstone
Rock Breaks Scissors Book PDF

Author : William Poundstone
Publisher : Little, Brown
Page : 320 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2014-06-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780316228084

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Rock Breaks Scissors by William Poundstone Pdf

A practical guide to outguessing everything from multiple-choice tests to the office football pool to the stock market. People are predictable even when they try not to be. William Poundstone demonstrates how to turn this fact to personal advantage in scores of everyday situations, from playing the lottery to buying a home. ROCK BREAKS SCISSORS is mind-reading for real life. Will the next tennis serve go right or left? Will the market go up or down? Most people are poor at that kind of predicting. We are hard-wired to make bum bets on "trends" and "winning streaks" that are illusions. Yet ultimately we're all in the business of anticipating the actions of others. Poundstone reveals how to overcome the errors and improve the accuracy of your own outguessing. ROCK BREAKS SCISSORS is a hands-on guide to turning life's odds in your favor.

Apocalypse When?

Willard Wells
Apocalypse When Book PDF

Author : Willard Wells
Publisher : Praxis
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2009-06-30
Category : Science
ISBN : 0387098364

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Apocalypse When? by Willard Wells Pdf

This book will be a key trailblazer in a new and upcoming field. The author’s predictive approach relies on simple and intuitive probability formulations that will appeal to readers with a modest knowledge of astronomy, mathematics, and statistics. Wells’ carefully erected theory stands on a sure footing and thus should serve as the basis of many rational predictions of survival in the face of not only natural disasters such as hits by asteroids or comets, but perhaps more surprisingly from man-made hazards arising from genetic engineering or robotics. Any formula for predicting human survival will invite controversy. Dr Wells counters anticipated criticism with a thorough approach in which four lines of reasoning are used to arrive at the same survival formula. One uses empirical survival statistics for business firms and stage shows. Another is based on uncertainty of risk rates. The third, more abstract, invokes Laplace’s principle of insufficient reason and involves an observer’s random arrival in the lifetime of the entity (the human race) in question. The fourth uses Bayesian theory. The author carefully explains and gives examples of the conditions under which his principle is valid and provides evidence that can counteract the arguments of critics who would reject it entirely. His deflection of possible criticisms results from two major premises: selecting the proper random variable and “reference class” to make predictions, and the recognition that if one does not know the law that governs a process, then the best prediction that can be made is his own formula.

The ISIS Apocalypse

William McCants
The ISIS Apocalypse Book PDF

Author : William McCants
Publisher : Macmillan + ORM
Page : 218 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2015-09-22
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781466892705

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The ISIS Apocalypse by William McCants Pdf

Based almost entirely on primary sources in Arabic--including ancient religious texts and secret al-Qaeda and Islamic State letters that few have seen--William McCants's The ISIS Apocalypse explores how religious fervor, strategic calculation, and doomsday prophecy shaped the Islamic State's past and foreshadow its dark future. The Islamic State is one of the most lethal and successful jihadist groups in modern history, surpassing even al-Qaeda. Thousands of its followers have marched across Syria and Iraq, subjugating millions, enslaving women, beheading captives, and daring anyone to stop them. Thousands more have spread terror beyond the Middle East under the Islamic State's black flag. How did the Islamic State attract so many followers and conquer so much land? By being more ruthless, more apocalyptic, and more devoted to state-building than its competitors. The shrewd leaders of the Islamic State combined two of the most powerful yet contradictory ideas in Islam-the return of the Islamic Empire and the end of the world-into a mission and a message that shapes its strategy and inspires its army of zealous fighters. They have defied conventional thinking about how to wage wars and win recruits. Even if the Islamic State is defeated, jihadist terrorism will never be the same.

It's All About Change

Osho
It s All About Change Book PDF

Author : Osho
Publisher : Osho Media International
Page : 192 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2014-05-21
Category : Body, Mind & Spirit
ISBN : 9780880504379

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It's All About Change by Osho Pdf

Everyone, regardless of nationality, religion, or political beliefs, has a sense of the current crisis of planet Earth. The environmental movement has support around the globe, while politicians — lagging behind reality — are still fighting over whether global warming exists. Decision-makers in government and in the private sector are dealing with the symptoms of this crisis, rather than addressing the underlying causes in a positive and constructive way. Osho points out that the current world crisis is a crisis of consciousness. Until there is a radical change in human consciousness, the interrelated social, political, economic, and ecological crises we face will continue. Osho's radical vision of change addresses how we can turn the present crisis into an opportunity, and what we must do in order to steer our course toward a "golden future" for all humankind and away from what he calls a "global suicide." Topics addressed in the book include the crisis of human values, the ecological crisis, the population challenge, the end of nations and religions, creative science, education, and human rights.

Labyrinths of Reason

William Poundstone
Labyrinths of Reason Book PDF

Author : William Poundstone
Publisher : Anchor
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2011-07-20
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9780307763792

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Labyrinths of Reason by William Poundstone Pdf

This sharply intelligent, consistently provocative book takes the reader on an astonishing, thought-provoking voyage into the realm of delightful uncertainty--a world of paradox in which logical argument leads to contradiction and common sense is seemingly rendered irrelevant.

Head in the Cloud

William Poundstone
Head in the Cloud Book PDF

Author : William Poundstone
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
Page : 336 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2017-06-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781786072856

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Head in the Cloud by William Poundstone Pdf

Never before have we had so much information at our fingertips. You might think that we are better-informed than ever, but there’s one thing we can’t ask Google: ‘What should I be googling?’ The way we consume information in the digital age has been blamed for driving political polarisation and leaving us unable to agree on basic facts. It’s also making us stupider. Personalised news feeds and social media echo chambers narrow our potential knowledge base. By now, we don’t even know what we don’t know. In Head in the Cloud, William Poundstone investigates the true worth of knowledge. An entertaining manifesto underpinned by big data analysis and illustrated by eye-opening anecdotes, it reveals the surprising benefits of broadening your horizons and provides an unnerving look at the consequences of being ill-informed.

Secrets of Angels on Earth

Allan J. Sweeney
Secrets of Angels on Earth Book PDF

Author : Allan J. Sweeney
Publisher : John Hunt Publishing
Page : 247 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2021-07-31
Category : Body, Mind & Spirit
ISBN : 9781789041361

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Secrets of Angels on Earth by Allan J. Sweeney Pdf

Secrets of Angels on Earth is the first book to describe an earth angel's journey from past lives, reincarnation, and pregnancy, through child and adulthood, to life after death. It answers questions on what is love, what is a soul mate, déjà vu, how to meditate, how to succeed with true love, and how to be happy. A new definition of love can inspire belief and faith for seekers, mystic teachers, and physicians alike. Highlights include how love improves anger management and relieves depression, anxiety, sadness, fear, and emotions. Learn how love creates vitality and health in your mind, body and spirit.

Quick(er) Calculations

Trevor Davis Lipscombe
Quick er Calculations Book PDF

Author : Trevor Davis Lipscombe
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 150 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2021-05-06
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780192594006

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Quick(er) Calculations by Trevor Davis Lipscombe Pdf

How fast can you calculate? Would you like to be faster? This book presents the time honored tricks and tips of calculation, from a fresh perspective, to boost the speed at which you can add — whether a couple of numbers, or columns so long an accountant may faint. Find out how to subtract, multiply, divide, and find square roots more quickly. What's more, this book gives suggestions for how to find answers that are “good enough” for tricky tasks like dividing by 17. It includes brand new ways to multiply and divide irrational numbers such as pi, e, the square root of 2, and the golden ratio. It has sections devoted to ancient mathematics, and the techniques we can borrow from previous and other cultures, in order to calculate more quickly. Examples, some serious, some fun, come from everyday life or from history — like hot dog eating competitions, the Vatican's cricket team, the molecular weight of the molecule with the world's longest name, and the amount of people taken by Henry VIII to arguably history's biggest party, the Field of the Cloth of Gold. In an age of timed multiple-choice questions, the swifter you can sum, or rule out wrong answers, the better you will do. If you love to play with numbers, this book will be recreational reading. And if you ever wonder whether simple arithmetic problems can crop up in everyday life, this book provides a fresh perspective.

Anthropic Bias

Nick Bostrom
Anthropic Bias Book PDF

Author : Nick Bostrom
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 240 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2013-10-11
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9781136710995

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Anthropic Bias by Nick Bostrom Pdf

Anthropic Bias explores how to reason when you suspect that your evidence is biased by "observation selection effects"--that is, evidence that has been filtered by the precondition that there be some suitably positioned observer to "have" the evidence. This conundrum--sometimes alluded to as "the anthropic principle," "self-locating belief," or "indexical information"--turns out to be a surprisingly perplexing and intellectually stimulating challenge, one abounding with important implications for many areas in science and philosophy. There are the philosophical thought experiments and paradoxes: the Doomsday Argument; Sleeping Beauty; the Presumptuous Philosopher; Adam & Eve; the Absent-Minded Driver; the Shooting Room. And there are the applications in contemporary science: cosmology ("How many universes are there?", "Why does the universe appear fine-tuned for life?"); evolutionary theory ("How improbable was the evolution of intelligent life on our planet?"); the problem of time's arrow ("Can it be given a thermodynamic explanation?"); quantum physics ("How can the many-worlds theory be tested?"); game-theory problems with imperfect recall ("How to model them?"); even traffic analysis ("Why is the 'next lane' faster?"). Anthropic Bias argues that the same principles are at work across all these domains. And it offers a synthesis: a mathematically explicit theory of observation selection effects that attempts to meet scientific needs while steering clear of philosophical paradox.

The Procrastination Equation

Piers Steel
The Procrastination Equation Book PDF

Author : Piers Steel
Publisher : Random House Canada
Page : 322 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2010-12-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780307366382

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The Procrastination Equation by Piers Steel Pdf

DON'T WAIT TO READ THIS BOOK: The world's leading expert on procrastination uses his groundbreaking research to offer understanding on a matter that bedevils us all. Writing with humour, humanity and solid scientific information reminiscent of Stumbling on Happiness and Freakonomics, Piers Steel explains why we knowingly and willingly put off a course of action despite recognizing we'll be worse off for it. For those who surf the Web instead of finishing overdue assignments, who always say diets start tomorrow, who stay up late watching TV to put off going to sleep, The Procrastination Equation explains why we do what we do—or in this case don't—and why in Western societies we're in the midst of an escalating procrastination epidemic. Dr. Piers Steel takes on the myths and misunderstandings behind procrastination and motivation. With accessible prose and the benefits of new scientific research, he provides insight into why we procrastinate even though the result is that we are less happy, healthy, and even wealthy. Who procrastinates and why? How many ways, big and small, do we procrastinate? How can we stop doing it? The reasons are part cultural, part psychological, part biological. And, with a million new ways to distract ourselves in the digitized world, more of us are potentially damaging ourselves by putting things off. But Steel not only analyzes the factors that weigh us down but the things that motivate us—including understanding the value of procrastination.

Zero

Charles Seife
Zero Book PDF

Author : Charles Seife
Publisher : Souvenir Press
Page : 253 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2019-11-28
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781782837329

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Zero by Charles Seife Pdf

A NEW YORK TIMES NOTABLE BOOK The Babylonians invented it, the Greeks banned it, the Hindus worshipped it, and the Christian Church used it to fend off heretics. Today it's a timebomb ticking in the heart of astrophysics. For zero, infinity's twin, is not like other numbers. It is both nothing and everything. Zero has pitted East against West and faith against reason, and its intransigence persists in the dark core of a black hole and the brilliant flash of the Big Bang. Today, zero lies at the heart of one of the biggest scientific controversies of all time: the quest for a theory of everything. Within the concept of zero lies a philosophical and scientific history of humanity. Charles Seife's elegant and witty account takes us from Aristotle to superstring theory by way of Egyptian geometry, Kabbalism, Einstein, the Chandrasekhar limit and Stephen Hawking. Covering centuries of thought, it is a concise tour of a world of ideas, bound up in the simple notion of nothing.