The Dynamics Of Non Performing Loans During Banking Crises A New Database

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The Dynamics of Non-Performing Loans during Banking Crises: A New Database

Mr.Anil Ari,Sophia Chen,Mr.Lev Ratnovski
The Dynamics of Non Performing Loans during Banking Crises A New Database Book PDF

Author : Mr.Anil Ari,Sophia Chen,Mr.Lev Ratnovski
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2019-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513521152

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The Dynamics of Non-Performing Loans during Banking Crises: A New Database by Mr.Anil Ari,Sophia Chen,Mr.Lev Ratnovski Pdf

This paper presents a new dataset on the dynamics of non-performing loans (NPLs) during 88 banking crises since 1990. The data show similarities across crises during NPL build-ups but less so during NPL resolutions. We find a close relationship between NPL problems—elevated and unresolved NPLs—and the severity of post-crisis recessions. A machine learning approach identifies a set of pre-crisis predictors of NPL problems related to weak macroeconomic, institutional, corporate, and banking sector conditions. Our findings suggest that reducing pre-crisis vulnerabilities and promptly addressing NPL problems during a crisis are important for post-crisis output recovery.

Systemic Banking Crises

Luc Laeven,Fabian Valencia
Systemic Banking Crises Book PDF

Author : Luc Laeven,Fabian Valencia
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 80 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2008-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : IND:30000111371310

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Systemic Banking Crises by Luc Laeven,Fabian Valencia Pdf

We provide new firm-level evidence on the effects of capital account liberalization. Based on corporate foreign-currency credit ratings data and a novel capital account restrictions index, we find that capital controls can substantially limit access to, and raise the cost of, foreign currency debt, especially for firms without foreign currency revenues. As an identification strategy, we exploit, via a difference-in-difference approach, within-country variation in firms' access to foreign currency, measured by whether or not a firm belongs to the nontradables sector. Nontradables firms benefit substantially more from capital account liberalization than others, a finding that is robust to a broad range of alternative specifications.

Resolving Nonperforming Loans in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Crisis

Luc Eyraud,Irina Bunda,Jehann Jack,Mr. Tarak Jardak,Rasmane Ouedraogo (Economist),Zhangrui Wang,Torsten Wezel
Resolving Nonperforming Loans in Sub Saharan Africa in the Aftermath of the COVID 19 Crisis Book PDF

Author : Luc Eyraud,Irina Bunda,Jehann Jack,Mr. Tarak Jardak,Rasmane Ouedraogo (Economist),Zhangrui Wang,Torsten Wezel
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 85 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2021-06-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513576510

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Resolving Nonperforming Loans in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Crisis by Luc Eyraud,Irina Bunda,Jehann Jack,Mr. Tarak Jardak,Rasmane Ouedraogo (Economist),Zhangrui Wang,Torsten Wezel Pdf

Sub-Saharan African countries are facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis that is likely to severely hurt credit quality and raise non-performing loans from already high levels. Banks have a critical role to play not only during the crisis by providing temporarily relief to businesses and households, but also during the recovery by supporting economic activity and facilitating the structural transformations engaged by the pandemic.

Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects

Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza,Ananthakrishnan Prasad
Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects Book PDF

Author : Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza,Ananthakrishnan Prasad
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 26 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2010-10-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455208890

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Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects by Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza,Ananthakrishnan Prasad Pdf

According to a dynamic panel estimated over 1995 - 2008 on around 80 banks in the GCC region, the NPL ratio worsens as economic growth becomes lower and interest rates and risk aversion increase. Our model implies that the cumulative effect of macroeconomic shocks over a three year horizon is indeed large. Firm-specific factors related to risk-taking and efficiency are also related to future NPLs. The paper finally investigates the feedback effect of increasing NPLs on growth using a VAR model. According to the panel VAR, there could be a strong, albeit short-lived feedback effect from losses in banks’ balance sheets on economic activity, with a semi-elasticity of around 0.4.

How to Assess the Benefits of Nonperforming Loan Disposal in Sub-Saharan Africa Using a Simple Analytical Framework

Irina Bunda,Luc Eyraud,Zhangrui Wang
How to Assess the Benefits of Nonperforming Loan Disposal in Sub Saharan Africa Using a Simple Analytical Framework Book PDF

Author : Irina Bunda,Luc Eyraud,Zhangrui Wang
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 23 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2021-06-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513583099

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How to Assess the Benefits of Nonperforming Loan Disposal in Sub-Saharan Africa Using a Simple Analytical Framework by Irina Bunda,Luc Eyraud,Zhangrui Wang Pdf

The coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, which has hit financial systems across Africa, is likely to deteriorate banks’ balance sheets. The largest threat to banks pertains to their loan portfolios, since many borrowers have faced a sharp collapse in their income, and therefore have difficulty repaying their obligations as they come due. This could lead to a sharp increase in nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the short to medium term.

From Banking to Sovereign Stress - Implications For Public Debt

International Monetary Fund
From Banking to Sovereign Stress Implications For Public Debt Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 88 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2014-12-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498342438

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From Banking to Sovereign Stress - Implications For Public Debt by International Monetary Fund Pdf

This paper explores how banking sector developments and characteristics influence the propagation of risks from the banking sector to sovereign debt, including how they affect the extent of fiscal costs of banking crises when those occur. It then proposes practices and policies for the fiscal authorities to help manage the risks and enhance crisis preparedness.

Nonperforming Loans in Asia and Europe—Causes, Impacts, and Resolution Strategies

Asian Development Bank
Nonperforming Loans in Asia and Europe Causes Impacts and Resolution Strategies Book PDF

Author : Asian Development Bank
Publisher : Asian Development Bank
Page : 262 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2021-12-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789292691165

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Nonperforming Loans in Asia and Europe—Causes, Impacts, and Resolution Strategies by Asian Development Bank Pdf

High and persistent levels of nonperforming loans (NPLs) have featured prominently in recent financial crises. This book traces NPL trends during and after crises, examines the economic impact of high NPLs, and compares the effectiveness of NPL resolution strategies across economies in Asia and Europe. The book distills important lessons from the experiences of economies using case studies and empirical investigation of ways to resolve NPLs. These findings can be invaluable in charting a course through the financial and economic fallout of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic to recovery and sustained financial stability in Asia, Europe, and beyond.

Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications

Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose
Financial Crises Explanations Types and Implications Book PDF

Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 66 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2013-01-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475561005

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Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications by Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose Pdf

This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

A Strategy for Resolving Europe's Problem Loans

Mr. Shekhar Aiyar,Mr. Dermot Monaghan
A Strategy for Resolving Europe s Problem Loans Book PDF

Author : Mr. Shekhar Aiyar,Mr. Dermot Monaghan
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 79 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2015-09-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513511658

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A Strategy for Resolving Europe's Problem Loans by Mr. Shekhar Aiyar,Mr. Dermot Monaghan Pdf

Europe’s banking system is weighed down by high levels of non-performing loans (NPLs), which are holding down credit growth and economic activity. This discussion note uses a new survey of European country authorities and banks to examine the structural obstacles that discourage banks from addressing their problem loans. A three pillared strategy is advocated to remedy the situation, comprising: (i) tightened supervisory policies, (ii) insolvency reforms, and (iii) the development of distressed debt markets.

Financial Crises

Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose,Mr.Luc Laeven,Mr.Fabian Valencia
Financial Crises Book PDF

Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose,Mr.Luc Laeven,Mr.Fabian Valencia
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 670 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2014-02-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475543407

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Financial Crises by Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose,Mr.Luc Laeven,Mr.Fabian Valencia Pdf

The lingering effects of the economic crisis are still visible—this shows a clear need to improve our understanding of financial crises. This book surveys a wide range of crises, including banking, balance of payments, and sovereign debt crises. It begins with an overview of the various types of crises and introduces a comprehensive database of crises. Broad lessons on crisis prevention and management, as well as the short-term economic effects of crises, recessions, and recoveries, are discussed.

Determinants of Ex-Ante Banking System Distress

Ms.Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo
Determinants of Ex Ante Banking System Distress Book PDF

Author : Ms.Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 115 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 1999-03-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451845167

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Determinants of Ex-Ante Banking System Distress by Ms.Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo Pdf

This paper empirically analyzes the contribution of microeconomic and macroeconomic factors in five recent episodes of banking system problems in the U.S. Southwest (1986–92), Northeast (1991–92), and California (1992–93); Mexico (1994–95); and Colombia (1982–87). The paper finds that a low capital equity and reserve coverage of problem loans ratio is a leading indicator of bank distress, signaling a high likelihood of near-term failure. Distress is shown to be a function of the same fundamental macro-micro sources of risk that determine bank failures. Focusing on distress has the advantage that the fragility of the banking system can be assessed before a crisis actually occurs.

Global Waves of Debt

M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara
Global Waves of Debt Book PDF

Author : M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 403 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2021-03-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464815454

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Global Waves of Debt by M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara Pdf

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability

Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques,Qianying Chen,Claudio Raddatz,Jérôme Vandenbussche,Peichu Xie
The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability Book PDF

Author : Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques,Qianying Chen,Claudio Raddatz,Jérôme Vandenbussche,Peichu Xie
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 39 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2019-09-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513513775

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The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques,Qianying Chen,Claudio Raddatz,Jérôme Vandenbussche,Peichu Xie Pdf

We explore empirically how the time-varying allocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous credit quality matters for financial stability outcomes. Using firm-level data for 55 countries over 1991-2016, we show that the riskiness of credit allocation, captured by Greenwood and Hanson (2013)’s ISS indicator, helps predict downside risks to GDP growth and systemic banking crises, two to three years ahead. Our analysis indicates that the riskiness of credit allocation is both a measure of corporate vulnerability and of investor sentiment. Economic forecasters wrongly predict a positive association between the riskiness of credit allocation and future growth, suggesting a flawed expectations process.

Debt in Times of Crisis

Thomas Poufinas
Debt in Times of Crisis Book PDF

Author : Thomas Poufinas
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 284 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2021-08-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783030741624

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Debt in Times of Crisis by Thomas Poufinas Pdf

Debt, private and public, and in particular excessive debt, has been debated to be one of the root causes of economic crises. At the same time, economic crises are believed to lead to an increase of debt. This book, through a range of contributors, explores certain constituents of an economy and attempts to identify their contribution to debt (public and private), especially in times of crisis; namely, bonds, tariffs, social security and non-performing loans (NPLs). Furthermore, it captures the (implicit) impact of the demography on debt through tariffs and social security and investigates the effect of quantitative easing/purchase programs and as well as crises on debt. In addition, the (cost of the) reserve that a state may want to provision for, in order to secure its economy from defaulting within a certain time horizon, is also addressed and calculated. This calculation offers an alternative valuation, or pricing, of (excess) debt (default protection). This book aims to offer a comparative study of countries – especially those with a history of excessive debt - and intends to realize whether an economic crisis can genuinely deteriorate debt, or whether the debt unsustainability is preexisting to the crisis. It will be relevant to students and researchers interested in economic policy and growth.

An Anatomy of Credit Booms

Mr.Marco Terrones,Mr.Enrique G. Mendoza
An Anatomy of Credit Booms Book PDF

Author : Mr.Marco Terrones,Mr.Enrique G. Mendoza
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 52 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2008-09-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451870848

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An Anatomy of Credit Booms by Mr.Marco Terrones,Mr.Enrique G. Mendoza Pdf

We study the characteristics of credit booms in emerging and industrial economies. Macro data show a systematic relationship between credit booms and economic expansions, rising asset prices, real appreciations and widening external deficits. Micro data show a strong association between credit booms and leverage ratios, firm values, and banking fragility. We also find that credit booms are larger in emerging economies, particularly in the nontradables sector; most emerging markets crises are associated with credit booms; and credit booms in emerging economies are often preceded by large capital inflows but not by financial reforms or productivity gains.