The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows

Author : Ms.Sonali Jain-Chandra,Ms.Filiz Unsal
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 19 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2012-11-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475579710

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The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows by Ms.Sonali Jain-Chandra,Ms.Filiz Unsal Pdf

The effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in open economies could be impaired if interest rates are driven primarily by global factors, especially during periods of large capital inflows. The main objective of this paper is to assess whether this is true for emerging Asia’s economies. Using a dynamic factor model and a structural vector auto-regression model, we show that long-term interest rates in Asia are indeed predominantly driven by global factors. However, monetary policy transmission mechanism remains effective in the region, as it operates predominantly through short-term interest rates. Nevertheless, the monetary transmission mechanism, though effective, is somewhat weaker in Asia during the periods of surges in capital inflows.

Author : Mr.Serhan Cevik,Ms.Katerina Teksoz
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 35 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2012-07-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475505399

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Lost in Transmission? The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in the GCC Countries by Mr.Serhan Cevik,Ms.Katerina Teksoz Pdf

This paper empirically investigates the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using a structural vector autoregressive model. The results indicate that the interest rate and bank lending channels are relatively effective in influencing non-hydrocarbon output and consumer prices, while the exchange rate channel does not appear to play an important role as a monetary transmission mechanism because of the pegged exchange rate regimes. The empirical analysis suggests that policy measures and structural reforms - strengthening financial intermediation and facilitating the development of liquid domestic capital markets - would advance the effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanisms in the GCC countries.

Author : Ms.Prachi Mishra,Mr.Peter Montiel
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 91 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2012-06-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475543803

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How Effective is Monetary Transmission in Low-Income Countries? A Survey of the Empirical Evidence by Ms.Prachi Mishra,Mr.Peter Montiel Pdf

This paper surveys the evidence on the effectiveness of monetary transmission in low-income countries. It is hard to come away from this review with much confidence in the strength of monetary transmission in such countries. We distinguish between the "facts on the ground" and "methodological deficiencies" interpretations of the absence of evidence for strong monetary transmission. We suspect that "facts on the ground" are an important part of the story. If this conjecture is correct, the stabilization challenge in developing countries is acute indeed, and identifying the means of enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy in such countries is an important challenge.

Author : Coenraad Vrolijk
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 57 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 1997-09-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451854343

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Derivatives Effect on Monetary Policy Transmission by Coenraad Vrolijk Pdf

This paper examines changes in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the presence of derivatives markets. The effect of adding derivatives markets is analyzed independently for each of the main channels of monetary policy transmission: interest rates, credit, and exchange rates. Theoretically, derivatives trading speeds up transmission to financial asset prices, but changes in the transmission to the real economy are ambiguous. Using the structural vector autoregression methodology, an empirical study of the United Kingdom is used to assess the impulse responses of output and inflation, controlling for the size of the U.K. derivative markets. No definitive empirical support for a change in the transmission process is found.

Author : Ms.Prachi Mishra,Mr.Peter Montiel,Rajeswari Sengupta
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 68 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2016-08-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475523966

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Monetary Transmission in Developing Countries by Ms.Prachi Mishra,Mr.Peter Montiel,Rajeswari Sengupta Pdf

We examine the strength of monetary transmission in India, using a conventional structural VAR methodology. We find that a tightening of monetary policy is associated with a significant increase in bank lending rates and conventional effects on the exchange rate, though pass-through to lending rates is only partial and exchange rate effects are weak. We could find no significant effects on real output or the inflation rate. Though the message for the effectiveness of monetary transmission in India is therefore mixed, our results for India are more favorable than is often found for other developing countries.

Author : Serhan Cevik
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2017
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1305025290

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Lost in Transmission? The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in the GCC Countries by Serhan Cevik Pdf

This paper empirically investigates the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using a structural vector autoregressive model. The originality and significance of the paper are in constructing and analyzing "synthetic" aggregate variables for the GCC as a whole. The results indicate that the interest rate and bank lending channels are relatively effective in influencing non-hydrocarbon output and consumer prices, while the exchange rate channel does not appear to play an important role as a monetary transmission mechanism because of the pegged exchange rate regimes. The empirical analysis suggests that policy measures and structural reforms -- strengthening financial intermediation and facilitating the development of liquid domestic capital markets -- would advance the effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanisms in the GCC countries.

Author : Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques,Mr.R. G Gelos,Mr.Thomas Harjes,Ms.Ratna Sahay,Yi Xue
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 54 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2020-02-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513529738

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Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques,Mr.R. G Gelos,Mr.Thomas Harjes,Ms.Ratna Sahay,Yi Xue Pdf

Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation and output have often stalled progress. We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà’s (2005) approach for 40 EMDEs to shed a light on monetary transmission in these countries. We find that interest rate hikes reduce output growth and inflation, once we explicitly account for the behavior of the exchange rate. Having a modern monetary policy framework—adopting IT and independent and transparent central banks—matters more for monetary transmission than financial development.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 256 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 1998
Category : Banks and banking, Central
ISBN : UCSD:31822025728676

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The Transmission of Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies by Anonim Pdf

Author : Jang-Yung Lee
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 72 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 1996-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UCSD:31822023408982

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Implications of a Surge in Capital Inflows by Jang-Yung Lee Pdf

This paper seeks to extend discussion of monetary policy instruments to the situation of a country faced with major capital inflows when the process of domestic financial liberalization is incomplete. It briefly summarizes the recent usage of traditional monetary instruments, discusses the practical limits to classic sterilization measures as well as the pros and cons of using other supplementary measures including tax-based controls on capital inflows. It also examines the efficacy of such measures in Chile, Colombia, Indonesia, Korea, Spain, and Thailand. The conclusion is that, for a time and as a transitional measure, a country may find it opportune to supplement the traditional instruments with certain “belt and braces” measures including, in some instances, indirect (tax-based) capital controls.

Author : Mr.Hamid Reza Davoodi,Mr.S. V. S. Dixit,Gabor Pinter
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 59 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2013-02-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475553499

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Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the East African Community by Mr.Hamid Reza Davoodi,Mr.S. V. S. Dixit,Gabor Pinter Pdf

Do changes in monetary policy affect inflation and output in the East African Community (EAC)? We find that (i) Monetary Transmission Mechanism (MTM) tends to be generally weak when using standard statistical inferences, but somewhat strong when using non-standard inference methods; (ii) when MTM is present, the precise transmission channels and their importance differ across countries; and (iii) reserve money and the policy rate, two frequently used instruments of monetary policy, sometimes move in directions that exert offsetting expansionary and contractionary effects on inflation—posing challenges to harmonization of monetary policies across the EAC and transition to a future East African Monetary Union. The paper offers some suggestions for strengthening the MTM in the EAC.

Author : Martin Feldstein
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 500 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2007-12-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226241807

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International Capital Flows by Martin Feldstein Pdf

Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.

Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 402 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2009-12-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781135179779

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Inflation Expectations by Peter J. N. Sinclair Pdf

Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Author : Mahmood Pradhan,Mr.Ravi Balakrishnan,Reza Baqir,Mr.Geoffrey Heenan,Sylwia Nowak,Ceyda Oner,Mr.Sanjaya Panth
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2011-04-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781463935122

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Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets by Mahmood Pradhan,Mr.Ravi Balakrishnan,Reza Baqir,Mr.Geoffrey Heenan,Sylwia Nowak,Ceyda Oner,Mr.Sanjaya Panth Pdf

Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.

Author : Andreas Jobst,Huidan Lin
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 48 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2016-08-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475524475

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Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) by Andreas Jobst,Huidan Lin Pdf

More than two years ago the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) to achieve its price stability objective. Negative interest rates have so far supported easier financial conditions and contributed to a modest expansion in credit, demonstrating that the zero lower bound is less binding than previously thought. However, interest rate cuts also weigh on bank profitability. Substantial rate cuts may at some point outweigh the benefits from higher asset values and stronger aggregate demand. Further monetary accommodation may need to rely more on credit easing and an expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet rather than substantial additional reductions in the policy rate.

Author : Ms.Deniz Igan,Alain N. Kabundi,Mr.Francisco Nadal De Simone,Ms.Natalia T. Tamirisa
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 38 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2013-07-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484343500

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Monetary Policy and Balance Sheets by Ms.Deniz Igan,Alain N. Kabundi,Mr.Francisco Nadal De Simone,Ms.Natalia T. Tamirisa Pdf

This paper evaluates the strength of the balance sheet channel in the U.S. monetary policy transmission mechanism over the past three decades. Using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model on an expanded data set, including sectoral balance sheet variables, we show that the balance sheets of various economic agents act as important links in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Balance sheets of financial intermediaries, such as commercial banks, asset-backed-security issuers and, to a lesser extent, security brokers and dealers, shrink in response to monetary tightening, while money market fund assets grow. The balance sheet effects are comparable in magnitude to the traditional interest rate channel. However, their economic significance in the run-up to the recent financial crisis was small. Large increases in interest rates would have been needed to avert a rapid rise of house prices and an unsustainable expansion of mortgage credit, suggesting an important role for macroprudential policies.