The Essential Tversky

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The Essential Tversky

Amos Tversky
The Essential Tversky Book PDF

Author : Amos Tversky
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 396 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2018-07-17
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9780262535106

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The Essential Tversky by Amos Tversky Pdf

Some of the best and most influential papers by Amos Tversky, one of the most brilliant social science thinkers of the twentieth century. Amos Tversky (1937–1996) was a towering figure in the cognitive and decision sciences. His work was ingenious, exciting, and influential, spanning topics from intuition to statistics to behavioral economics. His long and extraordinarily productive collaboration with his friend and colleague Daniel Kahneman was the subject of Michael Lewis's best-selling book, The Undoing Project: A Friendship that Changed Our Minds. The Essential Tversky offers a selection of Tversky's best, most influential and accessible papers, “classics” chosen to capture the essence of Tversky's thought. The impact of Tversky's work is far reaching and long-lasting. In 2002, Kahneman, who drew on their joint work in his much-praised 2013 book, Thinking, Fast and Slow (and who contributes an afterword to this collection), was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics for work done with Tversky. In The Undoing Project, Lewis (who contributes a foreword to this collection) describes his discovery that Tversky and Kahneman's thinking laid the foundation for Moneyball, his own ode to number-crunching. The papers collected in The Essential Tversky cover topics that include cognitive and perceptual bias, misguided beliefs, inconsistent preferences, risky choice and loss aversion decisions, and psychological common sense. Together, they offer nonspecialist readers an introduction to one of the most brilliant social science thinkers of the twentieth century.

Preference, Belief, and Similarity

Amos Tversky
Preference Belief and Similarity Book PDF

Author : Amos Tversky
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 1046 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2003-11-21
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 026270093X

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Preference, Belief, and Similarity by Amos Tversky Pdf

Amos Tversky (1937–1996), a towering figure in cognitive and mathematical psychology, devoted his professional life to the study of similarity, judgment, and decision making. He had a unique ability to master the technicalities of normative ideals and then to intuit and demonstrate experimentally their systematic violation due to the vagaries and consequences of human information processing. He created new areas of study and helped transform disciplines as varied as economics, law, medicine, political science, philosophy, and statistics. This book collects forty of Tversky's articles, selected by him in collaboration with the editor during the last months of Tversky's life. It is divided into three sections: Similarity, Judgment, and Preferences. The Preferences section is subdivided into Probabilistic Models of Choice, Choice under Risk and Uncertainty, and Contingent Preferences. Included are several articles written with his frequent collaborator, Nobel Prize-winning economist Daniel Kahneman.

The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds

Michael Lewis
The Undoing Project A Friendship That Changed Our Minds Book PDF

Author : Michael Lewis
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
Page : 320 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2016-12-06
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780393254600

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The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds by Michael Lewis Pdf

“Brilliant. . . . Lewis has given us a spectacular account of two great men who faced up to uncertainty and the limits of human reason.” —William Easterly, Wall Street Journal Forty years ago, Israeli psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky wrote a series of breathtakingly original papers that invented the field of behavioral economics. One of the greatest partnerships in the history of science, Kahneman and Tversky’s extraordinary friendship incited a revolution in Big Data studies, advanced evidence-based medicine, led to a new approach to government regulation, and made much of Michael Lewis’s own work possible. In The Undoing Project, Lewis shows how their Nobel Prize–winning theory of the mind altered our perception of reality.

An Analysis of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman's Judgment Under Uncertainty

Camille Morvan,William J. Jenkins
An Analysis of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman s Judgment Under Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Camille Morvan,William J. Jenkins
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 93 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2017-07-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781351350600

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An Analysis of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman's Judgment Under Uncertainty by Camille Morvan,William J. Jenkins Pdf

Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman’s 1974 paper ‘Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases’ is a landmark in the history of psychology. Though a mere seven pages long, it has helped reshape the study of human rationality, and had a particular impact on economics – where Tversky and Kahneman’s work helped shape the entirely new sub discipline of ‘behavioral economics.’ The paper investigates human decision-making, specifically what human brains tend to do when we are forced to deal with uncertainty or complexity. Based on experiments carried out with volunteers, Tversky and Kahneman discovered that humans make predictable errors of judgement when forced to deal with ambiguous evidence or make challenging decisions. These errors stem from ‘heuristics’ and ‘biases’ – mental shortcuts and assumptions that allow us to make swift, automatic decisions, often usefully and correctly, but occasionally to our detriment. The paper’s huge influence is due in no small part to its masterful use of high-level interpretative and analytical skills – expressed in Tversky and Kahneman’s concise and clear definitions of the basic heuristics and biases they discovered. Still providing the foundations of new work in the field 40 years later, the two psychologists’ definitions are a model of how good interpretation underpins incisive critical thinking.

Choices, Values, and Frames

Daniel Kahneman,Amos Tversky
Choices Values and Frames Book PDF

Author : Daniel Kahneman,Amos Tversky
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 864 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2000-09-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0521627494

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Choices, Values, and Frames by Daniel Kahneman,Amos Tversky Pdf

This book presents the definitive exposition of 'prospect theory', a compelling alternative to the classical utility theory of choice. Building on the 1982 volume, Judgement Under Uncertainty, this book brings together seminal papers on prospect theory from economists, decision theorists, and psychologists, including the work of the late Amos Tversky, whose contributions are collected here for the first time. While remaining within a rational choice framework, prospect theory delivers more accurate, empirically verified predictions in key test cases, as well as helping to explain many complex, real-world puzzles. In this volume, it is brought to bear on phenomena as diverse as the principles of legal compensation, the equity premium puzzle in financial markets, and the number of hours that New York cab drivers choose to drive on rainy days. Theoretically elegant and empirically robust, this volume shows how prospect theory has matured into a new science of decision making.

Mind in Motion

Barbara Tversky
Mind in Motion Book PDF

Author : Barbara Tversky
Publisher : Basic Books
Page : 384 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2019-05-21
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9780465093076

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Mind in Motion by Barbara Tversky Pdf

An eminent psychologist offers a major new theory of human cognition: movement, not language, is the foundation of thought When we try to think about how we think, we can't help but think of words. Indeed, some have called language the stuff of thought. But pictures are remembered far better than words, and describing faces, scenes, and events defies words. Anytime you take a shortcut or play chess or basketball or rearrange your furniture in your mind, you've done something remarkable: abstract thinking without words. In Mind in Motion, psychologist Barbara Tversky shows that spatial cognition isn't just a peripheral aspect of thought, but its very foundation, enabling us to draw meaning from our bodies and their actions in the world. Our actions in real space get turned into mental actions on thought, often spouting spontaneously from our bodies as gestures. Spatial thinking underlies creating and using maps, assembling furniture, devising football strategies, designing airports, understanding the flow of people, traffic, water, and ideas. Spatial thinking even underlies the structure and meaning of language: why we say we push ideas forward or tear them apart, why we're feeling up or have grown far apart. Like Thinking, Fast and Slow before it, Mind in Motion gives us a new way to think about how--and where--thinking takes place.

Scarcity

Sendhil Mullainathan,Eldar Shafir
Scarcity Book PDF

Author : Sendhil Mullainathan,Eldar Shafir
Publisher : Macmillan
Page : 304 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2013-09-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781429943451

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Scarcity by Sendhil Mullainathan,Eldar Shafir Pdf

A surprising and intriguing examination of how scarcity—and our flawed responses to it—shapes our lives, our society, and our culture Why do successful people get things done at the last minute? Why does poverty persist? Why do organizations get stuck firefighting? Why do the lonely find it hard to make friends? These questions seem unconnected, yet Sendhil Mullainathan and Eldar Shafir show that they are all examples of a mind-set produced by scarcity. Drawing on cutting-edge research from behavioral science and economics, Mullainathan and Shafir show that scarcity creates a similar psychology for everyone struggling to manage with less than they need. Busy people fail to manage their time efficiently for the same reasons the poor and those maxed out on credit cards fail to manage their money. The dynamics of scarcity reveal why dieters find it hard to resist temptation, why students and busy executives mismanage their time, and why sugarcane farmers are smarter after harvest than before. Once we start thinking in terms of scarcity and the strategies it imposes, the problems of modern life come into sharper focus. Mullainathan and Shafir discuss how scarcity affects our daily lives, recounting anecdotes of their own foibles and making surprising connections that bring this research alive. Their book provides a new way of understanding why the poor stay poor and the busy stay busy, and it reveals not only how scarcity leads us astray but also how individuals and organizations can better manage scarcity for greater satisfaction and success.

Judgment Under Uncertainty

Daniel Kahneman,Paul Slovic,Amos Tversky
Judgment Under Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Daniel Kahneman,Paul Slovic,Amos Tversky
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 574 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 1982-04-30
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 0521284147

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Judgment Under Uncertainty by Daniel Kahneman,Paul Slovic,Amos Tversky Pdf

Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.

Heuristics and Biases

Thomas Gilovich,Dale Griffin,Daniel Kahneman
Heuristics and Biases Book PDF

Author : Thomas Gilovich,Dale Griffin,Daniel Kahneman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 884 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2002-07-08
Category : Education
ISBN : 0521796792

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Heuristics and Biases by Thomas Gilovich,Dale Griffin,Daniel Kahneman Pdf

This book, first published in 2002, compiles psychologists' best attempts to answer important questions about intuitive judgment.

Critical Thinking

Varda Liberman,Amos Tversky
Critical Thinking Book PDF

Author : Varda Liberman,Amos Tversky
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 320 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2020-06-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0231187688

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Critical Thinking by Varda Liberman,Amos Tversky Pdf

Critical Thinking examines how we make judgments under uncertainty and how various biases can distort our consideration of evidence. Via everyday examples, Varda Liberman and Amos Tversky explore the insights of probability, causal relationships, and making inferences from samples with the goal of helping readers improve their intuitive reasoning.

Thinking, Fast and Slow

Daniel Kahneman
Thinking Fast and Slow Book PDF

Author : Daniel Kahneman
Publisher : Doubleday Canada
Page : 614 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2011-11-01
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9780385676526

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Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman Pdf

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER The guru to the gurus at last shares his knowledge with the rest of us. Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman's seminal studies in behavioral psychology, behavioral economics, and happiness studies have influenced numerous other authors, including Steven Pinker and Malcolm Gladwell. In Thinking, Fast and Slow, Kahneman at last offers his own, first book for the general public. It is a lucid and enlightening summary of his life's work. It will change the way you think about thinking. Two systems drive the way we think and make choices, Kahneman explains: System One is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System Two is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. Examining how both systems function within the mind, Kahneman exposes the extraordinary capabilities as well as the biases of fast thinking and the pervasive influence of intuitive impressions on our thoughts and our choices. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, he shows where we can trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking, contrasting the two-system view of the mind with the standard model of the rational economic agent. Kahneman's singularly influential work has transformed cognitive psychology and launched the new fields of behavioral economics and happiness studies. In this path-breaking book, Kahneman shows how the mind works, and offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and personal lives--and how we can guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble.

Through the Rearview Mirror

John Macnamara
Through the Rearview Mirror Book PDF

Author : John Macnamara
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 324 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2009-09-22
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 026226367X

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Through the Rearview Mirror by John Macnamara Pdf

In this lively book, John Macnamara shows how a number of important thinkers through the ages have approached problems of mental representation and the acquisition of knowledge. He discusses the relevance of these approaches to modern cognitive psychology, focusing on central themes that he believes have strongly influenced modern psychology. This is not a neutral historical survey, but a vehicle for Macnamara's compelling and provocative arguments on the relevance and worth of certain aspects of psychological and philosophical thought. The historical figures discussed are quite varied—from Plato to Thomas Jefferson to Sigmund Freud—and include numerous Christian philosophers such as Augustine and Thomas Aquinas. The book assumes no previous background in the subject matter; Macnamara often simplifies abstract concepts via homespun examples (many using his beloved dog, Freddie). This is a quirky, engaging book, as well as the last work by a highly influential figure in cognitive psychology.

Thinking, Fast and Slow... in 30 Minutes

30 Minute Expert Summary Staff
Thinking Fast and Slow in 30 Minutes Book PDF

Author : 30 Minute Expert Summary Staff
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2012-12-01
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1623150604

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Thinking, Fast and Slow... in 30 Minutes by 30 Minute Expert Summary Staff Pdf

Decisions: You make hundreds every day, but do you really know how they are made? When can you trust fast, intuitive judgment, and when is it biased? How can you transform your thinking to help avoid overconfidence and become a better decision maker? Thinking, Fast and Slow ...in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of decision making outlined in Daniel Kahneman's bestselling book, Thinking, Fast and Slow. Understand the key ideas behind Thinking, Fast and Slow in a fraction of the time: Concise chapter-by-chapter synopses Essential insights and takeaways highlighted Illustrative case studies demonstrate Kahneman's groundbreaking research in behavioral economics In Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, best-selling author and recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics, has compiled his many years of groundbreaking research to offer practical knowledge and insights into how people's minds make decisions. Challenging the standard model of judgment, Kahneman aims to enhance the everyday language about thinking to more accurately discuss, diagnose, and reduce poor judgment. Thought, Kahneman explains, has two distinct systems: the fast and intuitive System 1, and the slow and effortful System 2. Intuitive decision making is often effective, but in Thinking, Fast and Slow Kahneman highlights situations in which it is unreliable-when decisions require predicting the future and assessing risks. Presenting a framework for how these two systems impact the mind, Thinking, Fast and Slow reveals the far-reaching impact of cognitive biases-from creating public policy to playing the stock market to increasing personal happiness-and provides tools for applying behavioral economics toward better decision making. A 30 Minute Expert Summary of Thinking, Fast and Slow Designed for those whose desire to learn exceeds the time they have available, the Thinking, Fast and Slow expert summary helps readers quickly and easily become experts ...in 30 minutes.

Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making

Dirk Wendt,C.A. Vlek
Utility Probability and Human Decision Making Book PDF

Author : Dirk Wendt,C.A. Vlek
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 434 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 1975-12-31
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9027706034

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Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making by Dirk Wendt,C.A. Vlek Pdf

Human decision making involves problems which are being studied with increasing interest and sophistication. They range from controversial political decisions via individual consumer decisions to such simple tasks as signal discriminations. Although it would seem that decisions have to do with choices among available actions of any kind, there is general agreement that decision making research should pertain to choice prob lems which cannot be solved without a predecisional stage of finding choice alternatives, weighing evidence, and judging values. The ultimate objective of scientific research on decision making is two-fold: (a) to develop a theoretically sound technology for the optimal solution of decision problems, and (b) to formulate a descriptive theory of human decision making. The latter may, in tum, protect decision makers from being caught in the traps of their own limitations and biases. Recently, in decision making research the strong emphasis on well defined laboratory tasks is decreasing in favour of more realistic studies in various practical settings. This may well have been caused by a growing awareness of the fact that decision-behaviour is strongly determined by situational factors, which makes it necessary to look into processes of interaction between the decision maker and the relevant task environ ment. Almost inevitably there is a parallel shift of interest towards problems of utility measurement and the evaluation of consequences.

Simple Heuristics that Make Us Smart

Gerd Gigerenzer,Peter M. Todd,ABC Research Group
Simple Heuristics that Make Us Smart Book PDF

Author : Gerd Gigerenzer,Peter M. Todd,ABC Research Group
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 432 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2000-10-12
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9780190286767

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Simple Heuristics that Make Us Smart by Gerd Gigerenzer,Peter M. Todd,ABC Research Group Pdf

Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart invites readers to embark on a new journey into a land of rationality that differs from the familiar territory of cognitive science and economics. Traditional views of rationality tend to see decision makers as possessing superhuman powers of reason, limitless knowledge, and all of eternity in which to ponder choices. To understand decisions in the real world, we need a different, more psychologically plausible notion of rationality, and this book provides it. It is about fast and frugal heuristics--simple rules for making decisions when time is pressing and deep thought an unaffordable luxury. These heuristics can enable both living organisms and artificial systems to make smart choices, classifications, and predictions by employing bounded rationality. But when and how can such fast and frugal heuristics work? Can judgments based simply on one good reason be as accurate as those based on many reasons? Could less knowledge even lead to systematically better predictions than more knowledge? Simple Heuristics explores these questions, developing computational models of heuristics and testing them through experiments and analyses. It shows how fast and frugal heuristics can produce adaptive decisions in situations as varied as choosing a mate, dividing resources among offspring, predicting high school drop out rates, and playing the stock market. As an interdisciplinary work that is both useful and engaging, this book will appeal to a wide audience. It is ideal for researchers in cognitive psychology, evolutionary psychology, and cognitive science, as well as in economics and artificial intelligence. It will also inspire anyone interested in simply making good decisions.