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The Future of Global Conflict by Volker Bornschier,Christopher Chase-Dunn Pdf
This critical analysis of long-term trends and recent developments in world systems examines such questions as: Will the cycles of boom and bust, peace and war of the past 500 years continue? Or have either long-term trends or recent changes so profoundly altered the structure of world systems that these cycles will end or take on a less destructive form? The noted international contributors to this volume examine the question of future dominance of the core global systems and include comprehensive discussions of the economic, political and military role of the Pacific Rim, Japan and the former Soviet Union.
The Future of Global Conflict by Volker Bornschier,Christopher Chase-Dunn Pdf
This critical analysis of long-term trends and recent developments in world systems examines such questions as: Will the cycles of boom and bust, peace and war of the past 500 years continue? Or have either long-term trends or recent changes so profoundly altered the structure of world systems that these cycles will end or take on a less destructive form? The noted international contributors to this volume examine the question of future dominance of the core global systems and include comprehensive discussions of the economic, political and military role of the Pacific Rim, Japan and the former Soviet Union.
An urgent, prescient, and expert look at how future technology will change virtually every aspect of war as we know it and how we can respond to the serious national security challenges ahead. Future war is almost here: battles fought in cyberspace; biologically enhanced soldiers; autonomous systems that can process information and strike violently before a human being can blink. A leading expert on the place of technology in war and intelligence, Robert H. Latiff, now teaching at the University of Notre Dame, has spent a career in the military researching and developing new combat technologies, observing the cost of our unquestioning embrace of innovation. At its best, advanced technology acts faster than ever to save the lives of soldiers; at its worst, the deployment of insufficiently considered new technology can have devastating unintended or long-term consequences. The question of whether we can is followed, all too infrequently, by the question of whether we should. In Future War, Latiff maps out the changing ways of war and the weapons technologies we will use to fight them, seeking to describe the ramifications of those changes and what it will mean in the future to be a soldier. He also recognizes that the fortunes of a nation are inextricably linked with its national defense, and how its citizens understand the importance of when, how, and according to what rules we fight. What will war mean to the average American? Are our leaders sufficiently sensitized to the implications of the new ways of fighting? How are the attitudes of individuals and civilian institutions shaped by the wars we fight and the means we use to fight them? And, of key importance: How will soldiers themselves think about war and their roles within it? The evolving, complex world of conflict and technology demands that we pay more attention to the issues that will confront us, before it is too late to control them. Decrying what he describes as a "broken" relationship between the military and the public it serves, Latiff issues a bold wake-up call to military planners and weapons technologists, decision makers, and the nation as a whole as we prepare for a very different future.
This sobering look at the future of warfare predicts that conflicts will now be fought over diminishing supplies of our most precious natural resources. From the barren oilfields of Central Asia to the lush Nile delta, from the busy shipping lanes of the South China Sea to the uranium mines and diamond fields of sub-Saharan Africa, Resource Wars looks at the growing impact of resource scarcity on the military policies of nations. International security expert Michael T. Klare argues that in the early decades of the new millennium wars will be fought not over ideology but over resources, as states battle to control dwindling supplies of precious natural commodities. The political divisions of the Cold War, Klare asserts, are giving way to an immense global scramble for essential materials, such as oil, timber, minerals, and water. And as armies throughout the world define resource security as their primary mission, widespread instability is bound to follow, especially in those places where resource competition overlaps with long-standing disputes over territorial rights. A much-needed assessment of a changed world, Resource Wars is a compelling look at the future of warfare in an era of heightened environmental stress and accelerated economic competition.
Diplomacy and the Future of World Order by Chester A. Crocker,Fen Osler Hampson,Pamela Aall Pdf
"Diplomacy in pursuit of peace and security faces severe challenges not seen in decades. Obstacles to diplomacy are coming from the re-emergence of strong states, discord in the UN Security Council, destabilizing transnational non-state actors, closing space for civil society within states, and the weakening of the international liberal order. Diplomacy and the Future of World Order develops three visions of the future in which states and other key actors in the international system respond by deciding to go it alone, return to a liberal order, or collaborate on a case-by-case basis to address common threats and problems. The central focus of this book is peace and conflict diplomacy, defined as the effort to manage others' conflicts, cope with great power competition, or deal with threats to the state system itself. The distinguished international group of experts writing in this volume analyze the different scenarios' impact on peace and conflict diplomacy from the perspective of key actors and regions. It also explores the prospects for discord or collaboration around four major security issues-peacekeeping, nuclear nonproliferation, cyber competition, and terrorism. Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler Hampson, and Pamela Aall conclude by identifying emerging types of diplomacy that can provide the foundation for global peacemaking and conflict management in an uncertain future"--
Structures of the World Political Economy and the Future Global Conflict and Cooperation by Christian Suter Pdf
Triggered by the profound financial and economic crises, increasing ecological degradation, rising social struggles, and political and military conflicts, the structures of the world political economy seem to be, in the early 21st century, in a process of epoch-making transformation. Employing a world-historical and comparative perspective, this book's contributions deal with three core issues of global structures and dynamics: the degree of stability and change of global hierarchical structures and economic and social inequalities; the transformation of global and national political structures; and the global ecological change and its impact on the structures of the world economy, the world polity, and the world society. (Series: World Society Studies - Vol. 5) [Subject: Political Economy, International Affairs]
COVID-19 and World Order by Hal Brands,Francis J. Gavin Pdf
Leading global experts, brought together by Johns Hopkins University, discuss national and international trends in a post-COVID-19 world. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has killed hundreds of thousands of people and infected millions while also devastating the world economy. The consequences of the pandemic, however, go much further: they threaten the fabric of national and international politics around the world. As Henry Kissinger warned, "The coronavirus epidemic will forever alter the world order." What will be the consequences of the pandemic, and what will a post-COVID world order look like? No institution is better suited to address these issues than Johns Hopkins University, which has convened experts from within and outside of the university to discuss world order after COVID-19. In a series of essays, international experts in public health and medicine, economics, international security, technology, ethics, democracy, and governance imagine a bold new vision for our future. Essayists include: Graham Allison, Anne Applebaum, Philip Bobbitt, Hal Brands, Elizabeth Economy, Jessica Fanzo, Henry Farrell, Peter Feaver, Niall Ferguson, Christine Fox , Jeremy A. Greene, Hahrie Han, Kathleen H. Hicks, William Inboden, Tom Inglesby, Jeffrey P. Kahn, John Lipsky, Margaret MacMillan, Anna C. Mastroianni, Lainie Rutkow, Kori Schake, Eric Schmidt, Thayer Scott, Benn Steil, Janice Gross Stein, James B. Steinberg, Johannes Urpelainen, Dora Vargha, Sridhar Venkatapuram, and Thomas Wright. In collaboration with and appreciation of the book's co-editors, Professors Hal Brands and Francis J. Gavin of the Johns Hopkins SAIS Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs, Johns Hopkins University Press is pleased to donate funds to the Maryland Food Bank, in support of the university's food distribution efforts in East Baltimore during this period of food insecurity due to COVID-19 pandemic hardships.
If War Comes Tomorrow? by General Makhmut Akhmetovich Gareev Pdf
Military affairs have been affected by major changes in recent years. The bipolar world of two superpowers has gone. The Cold War and the global military confrontation that accompanied it have ended. A new military and political order has emerged in the world, but the world has not become more stable; indeed, wars and armed conflict have become much more common. Forecasting the contours of future armed conflict is no easy task at such times, but this is the primary objective of If War Comes Tomorrow? Focusing on the impact of new technologies, General Gareev considers whether war is still a continuation of politics by other means' or whether the political, ideological, and technical transformation have broken that connection. He explores the linkage between threats to Russian national interests and war as an instrument of policy in great detail and concludes that there is very little prospect either of nuclear war or widespread conventional war. However, he does see local armed conflicts and local wars increasing, with greater emphasis on subversion. He argues that coming decades will see a shift towards a reliance upon indirect means to accomplish limited political ends, and analyses both information warfare and the revolution in military affairs from this perspective.
Global Trends 2040 by National Intelligence Council Pdf
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
The collapse of US global hegemony means that the future of global relations will be defined by an integrated and mutually co-operative world order of regions in which there are multiple centres of power. These centres will continue to mature under the ideology of 'regionalism' and through the long historical process of 'regionalization'.
Author : David Cortright,Rachel Fairhurst,Kristen Wall Publisher : University of Chicago Press Page : 308 pages File Size : 44,6 Mb Release : 2017-03-22 Category : Law ISBN : 9780226478364
Drones and the Future of Armed Conflict by David Cortright,Rachel Fairhurst,Kristen Wall Pdf
During the past decade, armed drones have entered the American military arsenal as a core tactic for countering terrorism. When coupled with access to reliable information, they make it possible to deploy lethal force accurately across borders while keeping one’s own soldiers out of harm’s way. The potential to direct force with great precision also offers the possibility of reducing harm to civilians. At the same time, because drones eliminate some of the traditional constraints on the use of force—like the need to gain political support for full mobilization—they lower the threshold for launching military strikes. The development of drone use capacity across dozens of countries increases the need for global standards on the use of these weapons to assure that their deployment is strategically wise and ethically and legally sound. Presenting a robust conversation among leading scholars in the areas of international legal standards, counterterrorism strategy, humanitarian law, and the ethics of force, Drones and the Future of Armed Conflict takes account of current American drone campaigns and the developing legal, ethical, and strategic implications of this new way of warfare. Among the contributions to this volume are a thorough examination of the American government’s legal justifications for the targeting of enemies using drones, an analysis of American drone campaigns’ notable successes and failures, and a discussion of the linked issues of human rights, freedom of information, and government accountability.
Global Insurgency and the Future of Armed Conflict by Aaron Karp,Regina Karp,Terry Terriff Pdf
This volume covers a timely debate in contemporary security studies: can armed forces adjust to the rising challenge of insurgency and terrorism, the greatest transformation in warfare since the birth of the international system? Containing essays by leading international security scholars and military professionals, it explores the Fourth-Generation Warfare thesis and its implications for security planning in the twenty-first century. No longer confined to the fringes of armed conflict, guerrilla warfare and terrorism increasingly dominate world-wide military planning. For the first time since the Vietnam War ended, the problems of insurgency have leapt to the top of the international security agenda and virtually all countries are struggling to protect themselves against terrorist threats. Coalition forces in Afghanistan and Iraq are bogged down by an insurgency, and are being forced to rely on old warfare tactics rather than modern technologies to destroy their adversaries. These theorists argue that irregular warfare—insurgencies and terrorism—has evolved over time and become progressively more sophisticated and difficult to defeat as it is not centred on high technology and state of the art weaponry. Global Insurgency and the Future of Armed Conflict will be of interest to students of international security, strategic studies and terrorism studies.
The Future of Global Competition by Robert Hinck,Asya Cooley,Skye C. Cooley,Sara Kitsch Pdf
With today’s social and geopolitical order in significant flux this project offers vital insight into the future global order by comparatively charting national media perceptions regarding the future of global competition, through the lens of Ontological Security (OS). The authors employ a mixed-method approach to analyze 620 news articles from 47 Russian, Chinese, Venezuelan, and Iranian news sources over a five-year period (2014-2019), quantitatively comparing the drivers of their visions while providing in-depth qualitative case studies for each nation. Not only do these narratives reveal how these four nations understand the current global order, but also point to their (in)flexibility and agentic capacity for reflection in adapting, even shaping the future order, and their identity-roles within it, around an economic and diplomatic battleground. The authors argue these narratives create trajectories with inertial effects grounded in their OS needs, providing enduring insights into their behavior and interests moving into the future. The Future of Global Coopetition will help readers understand how influential nations typical aligned in opposition to the US, envision the drivers of global competition and the make-up of the future international system. Those engaged in the study of media, global politics, international relations, and communication will find this book to be a critical source.
A Looming Conflict by Abebe-Bard Ai Woldemariam Pdf
A Looming Conflict: World War III's Shadow and Strategies for Defusing It CONVERSATIONAL CHAT INFORMATIVE BOOK By ABEBE- BARD AI WOLDEMARIAM "A Looming Conflict: World War III's Shadow and Strategies for Defusing It" by Abebe Gebre Woldemariam and Bard AI is a thought-provoking exploration of the potential for global conflict and strategies for preventing it. The book takes a sobering look at the current global landscape, examining existing conflicts, rising tensions, nuclear threats, and the role of misinformation, propaganda, and cyberwarfare in escalating tensions. The book identifies potential flashpoints for global conflict and proposes concrete diplomatic and de-escalation strategies for defusing these conflict zones. It advocates for arms control, nuclear disarmament, and international collaboration to reduce the risk of escalation, while also highlighting the importance of addressing underlying issues such as poverty, inequality, and climate change. Additionally, the book charts a path towards a more peaceful future, emphasizing the role of international cooperation, cultural exchange, and shared values. It also offers a hopeful vision of a world free from conflict, based on respect for human rights and sustainable development. The book includes a chilling warning from an AI, predicting eight potential triggers for World War III, serving as a stark reminder of the apocalyptic consequences should diplomacy fail. Furthermore, the book expands the conversation beyond specific conflicts, offering deeper insights into the roots of war, emerging threats of nuclear proliferation and cyberwarfare, and the crucial role of diplomacy, dialogue, and disarmament in bridging divides. It ends with a call to action, urging individuals and nations to cultivate hope, action, and global solidarity in building a sustainable future free from the specter of World War III. This book is a must-read for anyone concerned about the future of our planet and the future of humanity itself. It aims to raise awareness about the potential for global conflict and spark informed conversation about the impact of AI on society. The book covers a wide range of topics, including the examination of the current global landscape, specific conflict zones, the critical role of international organizations, emerging threats, and strategies for building a future of peace.
