The Great Depression Of Debt

Author : Atif Mian,Amir Sufi
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 238 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2015-05-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226277509

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House of Debt by Atif Mian,Amir Sufi Pdf

“A concise and powerful account of how the great recession happened and what should be done to avoid another one . . . well-argued and consistently informative.” —Wall Street Journal The Great American Recession of 2007-2009 resulted in the loss of eight million jobs and the loss of four million homes to foreclosures. Is it a coincidence that the United States witnessed a dramatic rise in household debt in the years before the recession—that the total amount of debt for American households doubled between 2000 and 2007 to $14 trillion? Definitely not. Armed with clear and powerful evidence, Atif Mian and Amir Sufi reveal in House of Debt how the Great Recession and Great Depression, as well as less dramatic periods of economic malaise, were caused by a large run-up in household debt followed by a significantly large drop in household spending. Though the banking crisis captured the public’s attention, Mian and Sufi argue strongly with actual data that current policy is too heavily biased toward protecting banks and creditors. Increasing the flow of credit, they show, is disastrously counterproductive when the fundamental problem is too much debt. As their research shows, excessive household debt leads to foreclosures, causing individuals to spend less and save more. Less spending means less demand for goods, followed by declines in production and huge job losses. How do we end such a cycle? With a direct attack on debt, say Mian and Sufi. We can be rid of painful bubble-and-bust episodes only if the financial system moves away from its reliance on inflexible debt contracts. As an example, they propose new mortgage contracts that are built on the principle of risk-sharing, a concept that would have prevented the housing bubble from emerging in the first place. Thoroughly grounded in compelling economic evidence, House of Debt offers convincing answers to some of the most important questions facing today’s economy: Why do severe recessions happen? Could we have prevented the Great Recession and its consequences? And what actions are needed to prevent such crises going forward?

Author : Warren Brussee
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 400 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2009-01-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780470453445

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The Great Depression of Debt by Warren Brussee Pdf

This book takes a close look at today's economy and offers a bleak prediction for its future. However, those positioned to handle dramatic shifts in consumer spending, the mortgage industry, and the stock market are at a great advantage. Author Warren Brussee offers insight into the coming economic situation and provides steps to prepare for it. For example, he recommends that savings be in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities until the stock market drops 73% from its 2004 level. Methods of determining when the stock market is again a good buy are defined, and different investment options are evaluated. Even during a depression, people will need to save for their future, and Brussee provides detailed charts that show retirement savings requirements.

Author : Albert Gailord Hart
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 390 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2012-05-01
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1258319381

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Debts and Recovery by Albert Gailord Hart Pdf

Author : Irving Fisher
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2016-05-02
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1987817788

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The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions by Irving Fisher Pdf

Following the stock market crash of 1929 and the ensuing Great Depression, Fisher developed a theory of economic crises called "debt-deflation," which rejected general equilibrium theory and attributed crises to the bursting of a credit bubble. According to the debt deflation theory, a sequence of effects of the debt bubble bursting occurs: 1. Debt liquidation and distress selling. 2. Contraction of the money supply as bank loans are paid off. 3. A fall in the level of asset prices. 4. A still greater fall in the net worth of businesses, precipitating bankruptcies. 5. A fall in profits. 6. A reduction in output, in trade and in employment. 7. Pessimism and loss of confidence. 8. Hoarding of money. 9. A fall in nominal interest rates and a rise in deflation adjusted interest rates. This theory was ignored in favor of Keynesian economics, partly due to the damage to Fisher's reputation from his overly optimistic attitude prior to the crash, but has experienced a revival of mainstream interest since the 1980s, particularly since the Late-2000s recession, and is now a main theory with which he is popularly associated.

Author : Irving Fisher
Publisher : CreateSpace
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2012-01-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1469947080

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The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions by Irving Fisher Pdf

This book is for anyone interested in understanding the failure of the economic policies which are today destroying the U.S. economy and most of the world economies. The credit crunch today is not destroying capital but recognising that capital was destroyed by misallocation in the years of irrational exuberance. If that is so, then we are entering a spiral of debt deflation that will play out slowly for years to come. To understand how that works, we turn to Professor Irving Fisher of Yale and this book of his.

Author : Harry S. Dent., Jr.
Publisher : Black Inc.
Page : 402 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2010-02-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781922231635

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The Great Depression Ahead by Harry S. Dent., Jr. Pdf

The first and last economic depression of your lifetime is happening right now. Did you know our stock market and economy have peaked every 40 years due to generational spending trends: in 1929, 1968 and 2009? Did you know that oil and commodity prices have peaked every 30 years: in 1920, 1951, 1980 and 2010? The three massive bubbles of recent decades – stocks, real estate and commodities – have all peaked and are now deflating simultaneously. Harry S. Dent Jr. has observed these trends for decades and developed techniques to predict their impact. In The Great Depression Ahead, he identifies the following: • The economy appears to recover before stock prices start to crash again in late 2010 and flatten around mid-2012 • Gold and precious metals will appear to be a hedge at first, but will ultimately collapse after mid- to late 2010 • A first major stock rally between mid-2012 and mid-2017 will be followed by a final setback in late 2019 and early 2020 • The next global bull market will be from 2020–2023 Despite the dire news, there are real new-wealth opportunities ahead. Dent offers practical advice to allow families, businesses, investors and individuals to manage their assets correctly and come out on top. Your life is changing for reasons outside of your control. You can’t change the direction of the winds, but you can reset your sails! ‘The world’s leading demographic economist and author’—The Sunday Telegraph Harry S. Dent, Jr., is the author of the New York Times bestseller The Great Depression Ahead (2008). He is the president of the H.S. Dent Foundation and founder of Dent Research, which publishes Survive and Prosper, Boom and Bust, and HS Dent Forecast. He has an MBA from Harvard, has consulted to Fortune 100 companies, and lectures widely. He lives in Tampa, Florida.

Author : Carmen M. Reinhart,Kenneth S. Rogoff
Publisher : Peterson Inst for International Economics
Page : 157 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2011
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 0881326224

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A Decade of Debt by Carmen M. Reinhart,Kenneth S. Rogoff Pdf

This book presents evidence that public debts in the advanced economies have surged in recent years to levels not recorded since the end of World War II, surpassing the heights reached during the First World War and the Great Depression. At the same time, private debt levels, particularly those of financial institutions and households, are in uncharted territory and are (in varying degrees) a contingent liability of the public sector in many countries. Historically, high leverage episodes have been associated with slower economic growth and a higher incidence of default or, more generally, restructuring of public and private debts. A more subtle form of debt restructuring in the guise of "financial repression" (which had its heyday during the tightly regulated Bretton Woods system) also importantly facilitated sharper and more rapid debt reduction than would have otherwise been the case from the late 1940s to the 1970s. It is conjectured here that the pressing needs of governments to reduce debt rollover risks and curb rising interest expenditures in light of the substantial debt overhang (combined with the widespread "official aversion" to explicit restructuring) are leading to a revival of financial repression-including more directed lending to government by captive domestic audiences (such as pension funds), explicit or implicit caps on interest rates, and tighter regulation on cross-border capital movements.

Author : Ira Lieberman
Publisher : Brookings Institution Press
Page : 554 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2018-10-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780815735465

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In Good Times Prepare for Crisis by Ira Lieberman Pdf

Sovereign debt crises are a little like the weather: One can get ready to endure them and maybe take some steps to lessen their impact, but so far it hasn't been possible to prevent them. Like the weather, they just keep happening. That's the overriding thesis of this book tracing the major debt crises of the past century, starting with the Great Depression and running through the recent Great Recession. Written by a former World Bank expert on debt crises, this book discusses best practices for how such crises can be resolved. As the painful experience of the past decade reminded everyone, frequent debt crises and defaults do great damage to economies and cause vast personal hardship. But resolving them has proven difficult—both economically and politically—and has taken time, almost always requiring a lender of last resort such as a country's central bank or the International Monetary Fund. Too often, efforts to end debt crises have been little more than a palliative, and the debt overhang from one crisis contributes to the next, as illustrated by the ongoing saga in Greece. Both private and sovereign debts have increased substantially since the 2008 crisis, with inadequate deleveraging. This debt overhang leaves countries vulnerable and with limited maneuverability to address the next crisis. This book does not pretend to describe how debt crises can be prevented. But it does draw useful lessons from recent crises that can help economists, bankers, policymakers, and others resolve the inevitable future crises with the least possible damage.

Author : Albert G. Hart,Perry G. Mehrling
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 389 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2016-09-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781315286037

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Debt, Crisis and Recovery: The 1930's and the 1990's by Albert G. Hart,Perry G. Mehrling Pdf

This book provides a perspective by a prominent economist on the problems of debt, recession, and recovery in the 1930s as compared with the 1990s. The book begins with several chapters on the explosion of debt in the public and private sectors during the 1970s and 1980s, and its implications for economic stagnation and recession that seem to plague the economy. Resolution of the debt problem and reform of the banking and financial system are critically important because these problems dampen economic recovery and growth in the future. The second part of the book is a reprint of Albert Hart's classic 1938 study, Debts and Recovery 1929 to 1937, originally published by the 20th Century Fund. The extraordinary parallel between financial problems of the 1930s and the 1990s, solutions of the past, and proposed reforms for the future may provide a fascinating study for scholars and interested citizens alike.

Author : Tobias Straumann
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 267 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2019-01-08
Category : History
ISBN : 9780192548139

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1931 by Tobias Straumann Pdf

Germany's financial collapse in the summer of 1931 was one of the biggest economic catastrophes of modern history. It led to a global panic, brought down the international monetary system, and turned a worldwide recession into a prolonged depression. The crisis also contributed decisively to the rise of Hitler. Within little more than a year of its onset, the Nazis were Germany's largest political party at both the regional and national level, paving the way for Hitler's eventual seizure of power in January 1933. The origins of the collapse lay in Germany's large pile of foreign debt denominated in gold-backed currencies, which condemned the German government to cut spending, raise taxes, and lower wages in the middle of a worldwide recession. As political resistance to this policy of austerity grew, the German government began to question its debt obligations, prompting foreign investors to panic and sell their German assets. The resulting currency crisis led to the failure of the already weakened banking system and a partial sovereign default. Hitler managed to profit from the crisis because he had been the most vocal critic of the reparation regime responsible for the lion's share of German debts. As the financial system collapsed, his relentless attacks against foreign creditors and the alleged complicity of the German government resonated more than ever with the electorate. The ruling parties that were responsible for the situation lost their credibility and became defenceless in the face of his onslaught against an establishment allegedly selling the country out to her foreign creditors. Meanwhile, these creditors hesitated too long to take the wind out of Hitler's sails by offering debt relief. In this way, a financial crisis soon developed into a political catastrophe for both Europe and the world.

Author : Barry J. Eichengreen,Richard Portes
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 62 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 1989
Category : Capital market
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Dealing with Debt by Barry J. Eichengreen,Richard Portes Pdf

This paper analyzes the sovereign defaults of the 1930s and their implications for the debt crisis of the 1980s. It reports nine major findings. There is little evidence that financial markets have grown more sophisticated' over time, or that banks have a comparative advantage over the bond market in processing information. (2) Debt default in the 1930s depended on a combination of factors, . including the magnitude of the external shocks, the level of debt, and: the: economic policy response, as well as on a range, of: noneconomic considerations. (3) Countries which interrupted service recovered more quickly from the Great Depression than countries which resisted default. This contrasts with the experience of the 1980s, when no clearcut relationship exists (4) There is little evidence that countries which defaulted in the 19305 suffered inferior capital market access subsequently. (S} The readjustment of defaulted debts was protracted: the analogy with Chapter 11 corporate bankruptcy proceedings is no more applicable to the 1930s than to the 1980s. (6) Although default led in some cases to a substantial reduction of transfers from debtors to creditors, on balance returns on sovereign loans compared favorably with returns on domestic investments. (7) Creditor-country governments did more in the 'thirties than in the 'eighties to accelerate the settlement process. (3) Global schemes analogous to the Baker Plan were widely proposed but never implemented. (9) In contrast, market-based debt reduction in the form G debt buybacks played a useful role in the resolution of the crisis.

Author : John F. Mauldin,Jonathan Tepper
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 336 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2013-11-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781118827925

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Endgame by John F. Mauldin,Jonathan Tepper Pdf

Praise for Endgame "This is an extremely powerful, sobering, well-written and highly accessible book. It will demonstrate to you why there are no painless solutions to the mounting debt problems around the world—something that too many people are yet to realize. It will take you on a well-documented journey through the debt supercycle, making stops around the world and at critical junctures. And it is a must-read for anyone wishing to understand the global debt dynamics and ways to protect against its bad consequences." —Mohamed A. El-Erian, CEO, PIMCO, and author of When Markets Collide "No one has thought more creatively about the economy. Mauldin's weekly newsletter is a must-read, and his book is even more important if you want to understand a rapidly changing world." —Newt Gingrich, Former Speaker of the House of Representatives "Successful investors explore all possibilities. You should read this book so you can succeed in case the Endgame is our future." —Jim Rogers, author of A Gift to My Children "I read everything John Mauldin writes. He travels the world and shares his financial stories like a good friend sharing a drink. Mauldin is that rarity—a skeptical optimist—who calls 'em straight and rewards his clients and fans." —Rich Karlgaard, Publisher and Columnist, Forbes magazine "There's clearly something important going on in the world economy. Something big. Something powerful and dangerous. But something as yet undefined and uncertain. We are all feeling our way around in the dark, trying to figure out what it is. John Mauldin must have night vision glasses. He does an excellent job of seeing the obstacles. You should read this book before you knock over a lamp and stumble over the furniture." —William Bonner, President and CEO, Agora Inc., and author of Dice Have No Memory and Empire of Debt "Endgame is not only a highly readable and informative account of the causes of the recent global economic and financial meltdown, but it also provides investors with a concrete investment strategy from which they can benefit while this final act in financial history is being played out." —Marc Faber, Managing Director, Marc Faber, Ltd., and Editor, Gloom, Boom & Doom Report

Author : Carlos Marichal
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 297 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 1989
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 0608063835

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A Century of Debt Crises in Latin America by Carlos Marichal Pdf

Author : Carlos Marichal
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 312 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 1989
Category : Debts, External
ISBN : UCAL:B4447296

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A Century of Debt Crises in Latin America by Carlos Marichal Pdf

Carlos Marichal contends that the boom-and-bust cycles of Latin American foreign loans result mainly from the fluctuations of the world economy, rather than from errors made in Latin America itself. Marichal shows that the present debt crisis is only a part of an overall pattern in Latin American history--cycles of loan boom and subsequent debt crisis that are heavily influenced by fluctuations of international trade and capital flows. He also reveals the significant role played by those who implement debt policies. Examining the strategies of both lenders and borrowers, he makes it clear that foreign loan negotiations are not only financial tools but also political instruments with broad economic and social consequences. The book analyzes in detail the four major debt crises that took place in Latin America during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Marichal's focus is comparative, since the contracting of foreign loans and their repayment were problems common to virtually all nations of the region. He devotes special attention to explaining the links of these debt crises to the international financial panics of 1825, 1873, 1890, and 1929. The epilogue compares the debt crises of the past with the contemporary Latin American debt crisis.

Author : Canada. Dominion Bureau of Statistics
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 1210 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 1938
Category : Canada
ISBN : UOM:39015033595284

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The Canada Year Book by Canada. Dominion Bureau of Statistics Pdf