The Limits Of Inference Without Theory

Author : Kenneth I. Wolpin
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 197 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2013-04-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780262313681

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The Limits of Inference without Theory by Kenneth I. Wolpin Pdf

The role of theory in ex ante policy evaluations and the limits that eschewing theory places on inference In this rigorous and well-crafted work, Kenneth Wolpin examines the role of theory in inferential empirical work in economics and the social sciences in general—that is, any research that uses raw data to go beyond the mere statement of fact or the tabulation of statistics. He considers in particular the limits that eschewing the use of theory places on inference. Wolpin finds that the absence of theory in inferential work that addresses microeconomic issues is pervasive. That theory is unnecessary for inference is exemplified by the expression “let the data speak for themselves.” This approach is often called “reduced form.” A more nuanced view is based on the use of experiments or quasi-experiments to draw inferences. Atheoretical approaches stand in contrast to what is known as the structuralist approach, which requires that a researcher specify an explicit model of economic behavior—that is, a theory. Wolpin offers a rigorous examination of both structuralist and nonstructuralist approaches. He first considers ex ante policy evaluation, highlighting the role of theory in the implementation of parametric and nonparametric estimation strategies. He illustrates these strategies with two examples, a wage tax and a school attendance subsidy, and summarizes the results from applications. He then presents a number of examples that illustrate the limits of inference without theory: the effect of unemployment benefits on unemployment duration; the effect of public welfare on women's labor market and demographic outcomes; the effect of school attainment on earnings; and a famous field experiment in education dealing with class size. Placing each example within the context of the broader literature, he contrasts them to recent work that relies on theory for inference.

Author : Scott Cunningham
Publisher : Yale University Press
Page : 585 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2021-01-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780300251685

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Causal Inference by Scott Cunningham Pdf

An accessible, contemporary introduction to the methods for determining cause and effect in the social sciences "Causation versus correlation has been the basis of arguments--economic and otherwise--since the beginning of time. Causal Inference: The Mixtape uses legit real-world examples that I found genuinely thought-provoking. It's rare that a book prompts readers to expand their outlook; this one did for me."--Marvin Young (Young MC) Causal inference encompasses the tools that allow social scientists to determine what causes what. In a messy world, causal inference is what helps establish the causes and effects of the actions being studied--for example, the impact (or lack thereof) of increases in the minimum wage on employment, the effects of early childhood education on incarceration later in life, or the influence on economic growth of introducing malaria nets in developing regions. Scott Cunningham introduces students and practitioners to the methods necessary to arrive at meaningful answers to the questions of causation, using a range of modeling techniques and coding instructions for both the R and the Stata programming languages.

Author : Ali Hortaçsu,Joonhwi Joo
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 280 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2023-10-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780691243467

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Structural Econometric Modeling in Industrial Organization and Quantitative Marketing by Ali Hortaçsu,Joonhwi Joo Pdf

"Within economics a relatively new way of modeling has dominated important subfields: structural modeling. The goal of this book is to give an overview on how the various streams of literatures in empirical industrial organization and quantitative marketing use structural econometric modeling to estimate the model parameters, give the economic-model-based predictions, and conduct the policy counterfactual experiments. The traditional way of modelling, called "reduced-form" builds its models from simple relationships between variables of interests, which are mostly linear. Structural econometric models start by specifying the structure of the economic model, and the variables are calibrated from real-world data. This method enables better predictions and policy counterfactuals, and has other benefits. When considering a hypothetical policy change using the traditional modeling method ("reduced form"), researchers can often only estimate whether an effect would be positive or negative. With a structural econometric model using real-world data, a researcher can obtain the magnitude of the effects resulting from a hypothetical change. But the ability of quantifying the effects associated with a hypothetical policy change comes with its costs: the nonlinearity from explicitly specifying the possible relationships makes the structural econometric approach generally much more difficult to implement than its reduced-form counterpart. Therefore this book will provide a much-needed resource on how to use these methods effectively in the fields in which they been used the most, empirical industrial organization and quantitative marketing"--

Author : Jau-Lian Jeng
Publisher : Springer
Page : 268 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2018-03-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319741925

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Empirical Asset Pricing Models by Jau-Lian Jeng Pdf

This book analyzes the verification of empirical asset pricing models when returns of securities are projected onto a set of presumed (or observed) factors. Particular emphasis is placed on the verification of essential factors and features for asset returns through model search approaches, in which non-diversifiability and statistical inferences are considered. The discussion reemphasizes the necessity of maintaining a dichotomy between the nondiversifiable pricing kernels and the individual components of stock returns when empirical asset pricing models are of interest. In particular, the model search approach (with this dichotomy emphasized) for empirical model selection of asset pricing is applied to discover the pricing kernels of asset returns.

Author : Scott P. Handler,Robert T. Person
Publisher : CQ Press
Page : 616 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2020-12-23
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781544383071

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International Politics by Scott P. Handler,Robert T. Person Pdf

Why do states do what they do? Who are the relevant nonstate actors in international politics and why do they do what they do? What causes conflict and cooperation in the international system? These are some of the most basic questions that the discipline of International Relations (IR) seeks to answer; they are also the questions that drive the objectives, organization and content of this book. International Politics: Classic and Contemporary Readings, Second Edition seeks to help students engage critically with some of the world’s most challenging questions through the use of leading classic and contemporary scholarship in the field of international relations. The first five chapters of the book explore the leading theoretical traditions in international relations, while subsequent chapters explore the themes of international security, international political economy, and contemporary challenges in international relations. This organization makes the book easy to use as standalone text or alongside core text. Class-tested on over 10,000 students in the last decade, this text was built from the ground up to introduce students to the traditions and new foundations of international relations as well to the principles of intellectually rigorous thought.

Author : Bernt P. Stigum
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 389 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2015
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780262028585

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Econometrics in a Formal Science of Economics by Bernt P. Stigum Pdf

An examination of the role of theory in applied econometrics.

Author : David J. C. MacKay
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 694 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2003-09-25
Category : Computers
ISBN : 0521642981

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Information Theory, Inference and Learning Algorithms by David J. C. MacKay Pdf

Information theory and inference, taught together in this exciting textbook, lie at the heart of many important areas of modern technology - communication, signal processing, data mining, machine learning, pattern recognition, computational neuroscience, bioinformatics and cryptography. The book introduces theory in tandem with applications. Information theory is taught alongside practical communication systems such as arithmetic coding for data compression and sparse-graph codes for error-correction. Inference techniques, including message-passing algorithms, Monte Carlo methods and variational approximations, are developed alongside applications to clustering, convolutional codes, independent component analysis, and neural networks. Uniquely, the book covers state-of-the-art error-correcting codes, including low-density-parity-check codes, turbo codes, and digital fountain codes - the twenty-first-century standards for satellite communications, disk drives, and data broadcast. Richly illustrated, filled with worked examples and over 400 exercises, some with detailed solutions, the book is ideal for self-learning, and for undergraduate or graduate courses. It also provides an unparalleled entry point for professionals in areas as diverse as computational biology, financial engineering and machine learning.

Author : Luca Fiorito,Scott Scheall,Carlos Eduardo Suprinyak
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
Page : 208 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2018-05-18
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781787561274

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Including a Symposium on Bruce Caldwell's Beyond Positivism after 35 Years by Luca Fiorito,Scott Scheall,Carlos Eduardo Suprinyak Pdf

Volume 36A of Research in the History of Economic Thought and Methodology features a symposium on Bruce Caldwell’s Beyond Positivism after 35 years. The volume also features general-research essays from Luis Mireles-Flores and Alain Marciano. Luca Fiorito presents a new discovery from the archives.

Author : Henry Hughes
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 284 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 1894
Category : Inference
ISBN : UCAL:B3928071

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The Theory of Inference by Henry Hughes Pdf

Author : Paul R. Rosenbaum
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 552 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2020-07-13
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9783030464059

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Design of Observational Studies by Paul R. Rosenbaum Pdf

This second edition of Design of Observational Studies is both an introduction to statistical inference in observational studies and a detailed discussion of the principles that guide the design of observational studies. An observational study is an empiric investigation of effects caused by treatments when randomized experimentation is unethical or infeasible. Observational studies are common in most fields that study the effects of treatments on people, including medicine, economics, epidemiology, education, psychology, political science and sociology. The quality and strength of evidence provided by an observational study is determined largely by its design. Design of Observational Studies is organized into five parts. Chapters 2, 3, and 5 of Part I cover concisely many of the ideas discussed in Rosenbaum’s Observational Studies (also published by Springer) but in a less technical fashion. Part II discusses the practical aspects of using propensity scores and other tools to create a matched comparison that balances many covariates, and includes an updated chapter on matching in R. In Part III, the concept of design sensitivity is used to appraise the relative ability of competing designs to distinguish treatment effects from biases due to unmeasured covariates. Part IV is new to this edition; it discusses evidence factors and the computerized construction of more than one comparison group. Part V discusses planning the analysis of an observational study, with particular reference to Sir Ronald Fisher’s striking advice for observational studies: "make your theories elaborate." This new edition features updated exploration of causal influence, with four new chapters, a new R package DOS2 designed as a companion for the book, and discussion of several of the latest matching packages for R. In particular, DOS2 allows readers to reproduce many analyses from Design of Observational Studies.

Author : Arsenio Balisacan,Ujjayant Chakravorty,Majah-Leah Ravago
Publisher : Academic Press
Page : 532 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2014-09-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780128004166

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Sustainable Economic Development by Arsenio Balisacan,Ujjayant Chakravorty,Majah-Leah Ravago Pdf

Sustainable Economic Development: Resources, Environment, and Institutions presents 25 articles that lay the foundations of sustainable development in a way that facilitates effective policy design. The editors mix broad thematic papers with focused micro-papers, balancing theories with policy designs.The book begins with two sections on sustainable development principles and practice and on specific settings where sustainable development is practiced. Two more sections illuminate institutions, governance, and political economy. Additional sections cover sustainable development and agriculture, and risk and economic security, including disaster management. This rich source of information should appeal to any institution involved in development work, and to development practitioners grappling with an array of difficult on-the-ground developmental challenges. Analyzes policies that move markets and resource use patterns towards achieving sustainability Articles are kaleidoscopic in scope and creativity Authors embody extraordinary diversity and qualifications

Author : Abi Adams,Damian Clarke,Simon Quinn
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 256 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2016-01-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780191069444

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Microeconometrics and MATLAB: An Introduction by Abi Adams,Damian Clarke,Simon Quinn Pdf

This book is a practical guide for theory-based empirical analysis in economics that guides the reader through the first steps when moving between economic theory and applied research. The book provides a hands-on introduction to some of the techniques that economists use for econometric estimation and shows how to convert a selection of standard and advanced estimators into MATLAB code. The book first provides a brief introduction to MATLAB and its syntax, before moving into microeconometric applications studied in undergraduate and graduate econometrics courses. Along with standard estimation methods such as, for example, Method of Moments, Maximum Likelihood, and constrained optimisation, the book also includes a series of chapters examining more advanced research methods. These include discrete choice, discrete games, dynamic models on a finite and infinite horizon, and semi- and nonparametric methods. In closing, it discusses more advanced features that can be used to optimise use of MATLAB, including parallel computing. Each chapter is structured around a number of worked examples, designed for the reader to tackle as they move through the book. Each chapter ends with a series of readings, questions, and extensions, designed to help the reader on their way to adapting the examples in the book to fit their own research questions.

Author : Mark Fabian,Robert Breunig
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 290 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2018-03-12
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781351245937

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Hybrid Public Policy Innovations by Mark Fabian,Robert Breunig Pdf

Political discourse in much of the world remains mired in simplistic ideological dichotomies of market fundamentalism for efficiency versus substantial socialism for equity. Contemporary public policy design is far more sophisticated. It blends market, government and community tools to simultaneously achieve both equity and efficiency. Unlike in the twentieth century, this design is increasingly grounded in a deep evidence base derived by way of rigorous empirical techniques. A new paradigm is emerging: hybrid policies. This volume provides a thorough introduction to this technical side of public policy analysis and development. It demonstrates that it is possible to go beyond ideology, and find there some powerful answers to our most pressing problems. An international team of experts, many of whom have experience with the design or implementation of hybrid policies, helps cover the behavioural, institutional and regulatory theories that inform the choice of policy objectives and lead the initial conception of solutions. They explain the reasons why we need evidence-based public policy and the state-of-the-art empirical techniques involved in its development. And they analyse a range of in-depth case studies from industrial relations to health care to illustrate how hybrids can intermingle the strengths of governments, markets and the community to combat the weaknesses of each and arrive at bipartisan outcomes. Hybrid Public Policy Innovations is geared to scholars and practitioners of public policy administration and management who desire to understand the analytical reasons why policies are designed the way they are, and the purpose of evidence-gathering frameworks attached to policies at implementation.

Author : Jim Granato,Melody Lo,M. C. Sunny Wong
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 399 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2021-05-13
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780521193863

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Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models in Political Science by Jim Granato,Melody Lo,M. C. Sunny Wong Pdf

Provides a framework to demonstrate how to unify formal, theoretical and empirical analysis through various interdisciplinary examples.

Author : Colin Elman,John Gerring,James Mahoney
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 569 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2020-03-19
Category : Language Arts & Disciplines
ISBN : 9781108486774

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The Production of Knowledge by Colin Elman,John Gerring,James Mahoney Pdf

A wide-ranging discussion of factors that impede the cumulation of knowledge in the social sciences, including problems of transparency, replication, and reliability. Rather than focusing on individual studies or methods, this book examines how collective institutions and practices have (often unintended) impacts on the production of knowledge.