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France's liberation was expected to trigger a decisive break both with the Vichy régime and with the pre-war Third Republic. What happened was an untidy patchwork of unplanned continuities and false starts. This volume analyses the complex process of regime change, economic renewal, social transformation, and adjustment to a fast-evolving world.
When no samples are available to estimate a probability distribution, we have to invite some domain experts to evaluate the belief degree that each event will happen. Perhaps some people think that the belief degree should be modeled by subjective probability or fuzzy set theory. However, it is usually inappropriate because both of them may lead to counterintuitive results in this case. In order to rationally deal with belief degrees, uncertainty theory was founded in 2007 and subsequently studied by many researchers. Nowadays, uncertainty theory has become a branch of axiomatic mathematics for modeling belief degrees. This is an introductory textbook on uncertainty theory, uncertain programming, uncertain statistics, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain set, uncertain logic, uncertain inference, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, and uncertain differential equation. This textbook also shows applications of uncertainty theory to scheduling, logistics, networks, data mining, control, and finance.
The first account of narrative politics in US defense policy surrounding the end of the Cold War. This book will appeal to a broad readership group including Foreign Policy Analysis, (Critical) Security Studies, and International Relations. It will also be useful for courses on American politics.
An Epidemic of Uncertainty by Jenny Trinitapoli Pdf
"In An Epidemic of Uncertainty, Jenny Trinitapoli advances a new model for studying social life by emphasizing something that social scientists routinely omit from their theories, models, and measures--what people know they don't know. The book takes Malawi's ongoing AIDS epidemic as its entry point for understanding the stakes of uncertainty. After a four-decades-long battle, new infections are down and AIDS-related mortality has declined. But in the wake of pandemic AIDS, an epidemic of uncertainty persists; at any given point in time, half the population doesn't know their HIV status. The author argues that AIDS-related uncertainty is measurable, pervasive, and impervious to biomedical solutions. The consequences of uncertainty are pertinent to multiple domains of life including relationship stability, fertility, health, and well-being. Even as HIV is transformed from a progressive, fatal infection to a chronic and manageable condition, the accompanying epidemic of uncertainty remains central to understanding social life in this part of the world. This book is based on a ground-breaking longitudinal study that documents how the lives of young adults in Balaka, Malawi, unfold over a ten-year period. Trinitapoli also makes three general contributions: first, a demography of uncertainty and a set of theoretical and empirical tools for integrating what people know they don't know into social-scientific models of human behavior; second, a decade-long longitudinal study articulating what demographic approaches have to offer the social sciences; and third, an expansive attitude toward the empirical, which brings longitudinal survey data to life by incorporating accounts of uncertainty and its resolution through ethnography designed to capture population chatter and gossip in Balaka"--
From Micro to Macro: Dealing with Uncertainties in the Global Marketplace by Felipe Pantoja,Shuang Wu Pdf
The focus of the volume is on dealing with uncertainties and challenges within the global marketplace brought by digital technology companies that are leveraging artificial intelligence, machine learning, cloud computing, robotic automation, augmented reality, and other recent advancements. Additionally, these companies operate in the sharing economy and offer collaborative consumption opportunities. Featuring contributions presented at the 2020 Academy of Marketing Science (AMS) Virtual Annual Conference, the enclosed contributions assess the impact of these radical and disruptive innovations on long-standing incumbents and traditional industries, as well as consumer experiences. Founded in 1971, the Academy of Marketing Science is an international organization dedicated to promoting timely explorations of phenomena related to the science of marketing in theory, research, and practice. Among its services to members and the community at large, the Academy offers conferences, congresses, and symposia that attract delegates from around the world. Presentations from these events are published in this Proceedings series, which offers a comprehensive archive of volumes reflecting the evolution of the field. Volumes deliver cutting-edge research and insights, complementing the Academy’s flagship journals, the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science (JAMS) and AMS Review. Volumes are edited by leading scholars and practitioners across a wide range of subject areas in marketing science
Covid-19 and the Sociology of Risk and Uncertainty by Patrick R. Brown,Jens O. Zinn Pdf
This book provides a global perspective on COVID-19, taking the heterogenous realities of the pandemic into account. Contributions are rooted in critical social science studies of risk and uncertainty and characterized by theoretical approaches such as cultural theory, risk society theory, governmentality perspectives, and many important insights from ‘southern’ theories. Some of the chapters in the book have a more theoretical-conceptual emphasis, while others are more empirically oriented – but all chapters engage in an insightful dialogue between the theoretical and the empirical, in order to develop a rich, diverse and textured picture of the new challenge the world is facing and responding to. Addressing multiple levels of responses to the coronavirus, as understood in terms of, institutional and governance policies, media communication and interpretation, and the sense-making and actions of individual citizens in their everyday lives, the book brings together a diverse range of studies from across 6 continents. These chapters are connected by a common emphasis on applying critical theoretical approaches which help make sense of, and critique, the responses of states, organisations and individuals to the social phenomena emerging amid the Corona pandemic.
Originally published in 1986, this book discusses the value of weather and climate information in government and business decision-making. It issues a strong manifesto for the development of new areas of research requiring the skills of weather scientists, geographers, economists, planners and political scientists. It offers a coherent and non-technical presentation of this climatology, supported with practical guidance on assessing the impacts of weather and climate on human affairs.
What manager is not anxious about the future? We live in a white-knuckled age of rapid technological change and global instability. But uncertainty is not the enemy, says management expert Paul J. H. Schoemaker. It is where the greatest opportunities are. To unlock these opportunities, however, requires a very different approach to strategy and implementation. In this pioneering book, Dr. Schoemaker presents a systematic approach that combines concepts such as scenario planning, options thinking, and dynamic monitoring to create novel strategies for profiting from ambiguity. Building on his experience with more than one hundred consulting projects in fields ranging from health care to manufacturing, from utilities to financial services, Schoemaker shows how major corporations throughout the world have used his pathbreaking methodology to prepare for an uncertain future and profit from it. In this first comprehensive approach to the subject, Schoemaker shows the reader (1) how to develop and analyze multiple industry scenarios, (2) craft nimble strategies with just the right amount of flexibility, (3) implement them using an options approach, and (4) make real-time adjustments through dynamic monitoring. As a leading academic thinker and practitioner, the author draws on the frontiers of decision science, organization theory, strategy, and cognitive psychology to integrate the most practical contributions these various fields have made to navigating uncertainty. More than any other capability, skill in seizing initiatives in shifting, unpredictable circumstances is the key to success. Profiting from Uncertainty provides a road map to do just that. This book was first published in 2002, well ahead of the mega turmoil that befell the world in 2008 and beyond. The methods and tools described here have been used by many companies and are even more relevant today than when originally published. You can’t do without them.
Globalization, Uncertainty and Youth in Society by Hans-Peter Blossfeld,Erik Klijzing,Melinda Mills,Karin Kurz Pdf
Examining how youths in fourteen industrialized societies make the transition to adulthood in an era of globalization and rising uncertainty, this collection of essays investigates the impact that institutions working with social groups of youths have upon those youths' abilities to make adult decisions determining their life courses. Covering both Europe and North America, the book includes case studies, and contains country-specific contributions on conservative, social-democratic, post-socialist, liberal and familistic welfare regimes, as well as data from the GLOBALIFE project. Filling the gap in the market on the micro effects of globalization on individuals, and taking an empirical approach to the topic, this impressive volume brings the individual and nation-specific institutions back into the discussion on globalization.
In recent years we have faced huge uncertainty and unpredictability across the world: Covid-19, political turbulence, climate change and war in Europe, among many other events. Through a historical analysis of worldviews, Peter Haldén provides nuance to the common belief in an uncertain world by showing the predictable nature of modern society and arguing that human beings create predictability through norms, laws, trust and collaboration. Haldén shows that, since the Renaissance, two worldviews define Western civilization: first, that the world is knowable and governed by laws, regularities, mechanisms or plan, hence it is possible to control and the future is possible to foresee; second, that the world is governed by chance, impossible to predict and control and therefore shocks and surprises are inevitable. Worlds of Uncertainty argues that between these two extremes lie positions that recognize the principal unpredictability of the world but seek pragmatic ways of navigating through it.
Picturing the Uncertain World by Howard Wainer Pdf
From the publisher. This book explores how graphs can serve as maps to guide us when the information we have is ambiguous or incomplete. Using a visually diverse sampling of graphical display, from heartrending autobiographical displays of genocide in the Kovno ghetto to the "Pie Chart of Mystery" in a New Yorker cartoon, Wainer illustrates the many ways graphs can be used--and misused--as we try to make sense of an uncertain world. Picturing the Uncertain World takes readers on an extraordinary graphical adventure, revealing how the visual communication of data offers answers to vexing questions yet also highlights the measure of uncertainty in almost everything we do. Are cancer rates higher or lower in rural communities? How can you know how much money to sock away for retirement when you don't know when you'll die? And where exactly did nineteenth-century novelists get their ideas? These are some of the fascinating questions Wainer invites readers to consider. Along the way he traces the origins and development of graphical display, from William Playfair, who pioneered the use of graphs in the eighteenth century, to instances today where the public has been misled through poorly designed graphs.
The Mathematics of the Uncertain by Eduardo Gil,Eva Gil,Juan Gil,María Ángeles Gil Pdf
This book is a tribute to Professor Pedro Gil, who created the Department of Statistics, OR and TM at the University of Oviedo, and a former President of the Spanish Society of Statistics and OR (SEIO). In more than eighty original contributions, it illustrates the extent to which Mathematics can help manage uncertainty, a factor that is inherent to real life. Today it goes without saying that, in order to model experiments and systems and to analyze related outcomes and data, it is necessary to consider formal ideas and develop scientific approaches and techniques for dealing with uncertainty. Mathematics is crucial in this endeavor, as this book demonstrates. As Professor Pedro Gil highlighted twenty years ago, there are several well-known mathematical branches for this purpose, including Mathematics of chance (Probability and Statistics), Mathematics of communication (Information Theory), and Mathematics of imprecision (Fuzzy Sets Theory and others). These branches often intertwine, since different sources of uncertainty can coexist, and they are not exhaustive. While most of the papers presented here address the three aforementioned fields, some hail from other Mathematical disciplines such as Operations Research; others, in turn, put the spotlight on real-world studies and applications. The intended audience of this book is mainly statisticians, mathematicians and computer scientists, but practitioners in these areas will certainly also find the book a very interesting read.
United States. Congress. House. Committee on Small Business
Author : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Small Business Publisher : Unknown Page : 80 pages File Size : 41,7 Mb Release : 2011 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : UCSD:31822038357778
Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems by Marie-Jeanne Lesot,Susana Vieira,Marek Z. Reformat,João Paulo Carvalho,Anna Wilbik,Bernadette Bouchon-Meunier,Ronald R. Yager Pdf
This three volume set (CCIS 1237-1239) constitutes the proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems, IPMU 2020, in June 2020. The conference was scheduled to take place in Lisbon, Portugal, at University of Lisbon, but due to COVID-19 pandemic it was held virtually. The 173 papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 213 submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections: homage to Enrique Ruspini; invited talks; foundations and mathematics; decision making, preferences and votes; optimization and uncertainty; games; real world applications; knowledge processing and creation; machine learning I; machine learning II; XAI; image processing; temporal data processing; text analysis and processing; fuzzy interval analysis; theoretical and applied aspects of imprecise probabilities; similarities in artificial intelligence; belief function theory and its applications; aggregation: theory and practice; aggregation: pre-aggregation functions and other generalizations of monotonicity; aggregation: aggregation of different data structures; fuzzy methods in data mining and knowledge discovery; computational intelligence for logistics and transportation problems; fuzzy implication functions; soft methods in statistics and data analysis; image understanding and explainable AI; fuzzy and generalized quantifier theory; mathematical methods towards dealing with uncertainty in applied sciences; statistical image processing and analysis, with applications in neuroimaging; interval uncertainty; discrete models and computational intelligence; current techniques to model, process and describe time series; mathematical fuzzy logic and graded reasoning models; formal concept analysis, rough sets, general operators and related topics; computational intelligence methods in information modelling, representation and processing.