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Author : Pema Chödrön
Publisher : Shambhala Publications
Page : 255 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2008
Category : Body, Mind & Spirit
ISBN : 9781590305553
Tibetan Buddhist nun Pema Chodron offers short, stand-alone readings designed to help readers cultivate compassion and awareness amid the challenges of daily living.
Author : Stephen Poloz
Publisher : Penguin
Page : 305 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2022-02-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780735243910
*WINNER OF THE 2023 NATIONAL BUSINESS BOOK AWARD* *FINALIST FOR THE 2023 OTTAWA BOOK AWARD* *SHORTLISTED FOR THE SHAUGHNESSY COHEN PRIZE FOR POLITICAL WRITING* *SHORTLISTED FOR THE 2022 DONNER PRIZE* NATIONAL BESTSELLER From the former Governor of the Bank of Canada, a far-seeing guide to the powerful economic forces that will shape the decades ahead. The economic ground is shifting beneath our feet. The world is becoming more volatile, and people are understandably worried about their financial futures. In this urgent and accessible guide to the crises and opportunities that lie ahead, economist and former Governor of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz maps out the powerful tectonic forces that are shaping our future, and the ideas that will allow us to master them. These forces include an aging workforce, mounting debt, and rising income inequality. Technological advances, too, are adding to the pressure, putting people out of work, and climate change is forcing a transition to a lower-carbon economy. It is no surprise that people are feeling uncertain. The implications of these tectonic tensions will cascade throughout every dimension of our lives—the job market, the housing market, the investment climate, as well as government and central bank policy, and the role of the corporation within society. The pandemic has added momentum to many of them. Poloz skillfully argues that past crises, from the Victorian Depression in the late 1800s to the more recent downturn in 2008, give a hint of what is in store for us in the decades ahead. Unlike the purely destructive power of earthquakes, the upheaval that is sure to come in the decades ahead will offer unexpected opportunities for renewal and growth. Filled with takeaways for employers, investors, and policymakers, as well as families discussing jobs and mortgage renewals around the kitchen table, The Next Age of Uncertainty is an indispensable guide for those navigating the fault lines of the risky world ahead.
Author : Faith A. Morrison
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 389 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2021-01-07
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781108478359
Build the skills for determining appropriate error limits for quantities that matter with this essential toolkit. Understand how to handle a complete project and how uncertainty enters into various steps. Provides a systematic, worksheet-based process to determine error limits on measured quantities, and all likely sources of uncertainty are explored, measured or estimated. Features instructions on how to carry out error analysis using Excel and MATLAB®, making previously tedious calculations easy. Whether you are new to the sciences or an experienced engineer, this useful resource provides a practical approach to performing error analysis. Suitable as a text for a junior or senior level laboratory course in aerospace, chemical and mechanical engineering, and for professionals.
Author : T. Simmermacher,Scott Cogan,L.G. Horta,R. Barthorpe
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 194 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2012-04-23
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781461424314
Topics in Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 4, Proceedings of the 30th IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Structural Dynamics, 2012, the fourth volume of six from the Conference, brings together 19 contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Structural Dynamics, including papers on: Robustness to Lack of Knowledge in Design Bayesian and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Uncertainty Quantification Model Calibration
Author : George J. Klir,Mark J. Wierman
Publisher : Physica
Page : 180 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2013-06-05
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9783790818697
Information is precious. It reduces our uncertainty in making decisions. Knowledge about the outcome of an uncertain event gives the possessor an advantage. It changes the course of lives, nations, and history itself. Information is the food of Maxwell's demon. His power comes from know ing which particles are hot and which particles are cold. His existence was paradoxical to classical physics and only the realization that information too was a source of power led to his taming. Information has recently become a commodity, traded and sold like or ange juice or hog bellies. Colleges give degrees in information science and information management. Technology of the computer age has provided access to information in overwhelming quantity. Information has become something worth studying in its own right. The purpose of this volume is to introduce key developments and results in the area of generalized information theory, a theory that deals with uncertainty-based information within mathematical frameworks that are broader than classical set theory and probability theory. The volume is organized as follows.
Author : Richard J. Arend
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 466 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2024-01-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783031485534
Knight (1921) defines uncertainty as an informational market failure that, while being detrimental to most existing businesses, presents possible profitable opportunities for others. This book builds upon that classic work by providing an analysis of the alternative approaches to strategic decision-making under such uncertainty. It covers what uncertainty is, why it is important, and what connections it has to business and related fields, culminating in a new and comprehensive typology and a valuable guide for how to appropriately address various types of uncertainties, even under AI. It clarifies the current terminological and categorical confusion about ‘unknowns’ while complementing the mathematical, probability-based approaches that treat uncertainty as ‘knowable’ (i.e., as risk). It corrects the mistaken approaches that treat ‘unknowables’ as ‘shapeable’ or ‘discoverable’. This book widens the perspective for viewing uncertainty, in terms of its impacts across humanity, by offering a shrewder understanding of what roles uncertainties play in human activity. It will appeal to academics across business, economics, philosophy, and other disciplines looking for approaches to apply, test, and hone for dealing with decision-making under uncertainty.
Author : John W. Traphagan
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 154 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2021-07-14
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 189655976X
Here you have the product of my thinking as an anthropologist who has studied and traveled to Japan for over thirty years. In one sense, the book is an anthropological memoir in which I work through ideas of uncertainty and undifferentiation evident in the writings of Dogen as they relate to ethics and culture, but also explore other thinkers like philosopher Richard Rorty and anthropologist Clifford Geertz. I describe what I call the ethnographic outlook, which has the potential to generate humility, as a potentially powerful means to transform both self and society. A central goal of the book is to explore the idea that all knowledge is inherently uncertain, including knowledge of right and wrong, and that the quest for certainty leads to many of the problems we see in the modern world. The book threads a discussion of jazz improvisation as a way of thinking about the human experience and presents the idea of the lead sheet as a metaphor for culture and the ongoing process of change that is the world.
Author : George J. Klir
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 499 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2005-11-22
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9780471755562
Deal with information and uncertainty properly and efficientlyusing tools emerging from generalized information theory Uncertainty and Information: Foundations of Generalized InformationTheory contains comprehensive and up-to-date coverage of resultsthat have emerged from a research program begun by the author inthe early 1990s under the name "generalized information theory"(GIT). This ongoing research program aims to develop a formalmathematical treatment of the interrelated concepts of uncertaintyand information in all their varieties. In GIT, as in classicalinformation theory, uncertainty (predictive, retrodictive,diagnostic, prescriptive, and the like) is viewed as amanifestation of information deficiency, while information isviewed as anything capable of reducing the uncertainty. A broadconceptual framework for GIT is obtained by expanding theformalized language of classical set theory to include moreexpressive formalized languages based on fuzzy sets of varioustypes, and by expanding classical theory of additive measures toinclude more expressive non-additive measures of varioustypes. This landmark book examines each of several theories for dealingwith particular types of uncertainty at the following fourlevels: * Mathematical formalization of the conceived type ofuncertainty * Calculus for manipulating this particular type ofuncertainty * Justifiable ways of measuring the amount of uncertainty in anysituation formalizable in the theory * Methodological aspects of the theory With extensive use of examples and illustrations to clarify complexmaterial and demonstrate practical applications, generoushistorical and bibliographical notes, end-of-chapter exercises totest readers' newfound knowledge, glossaries, and an Instructor'sManual, this is an excellent graduate-level textbook, as well as anoutstanding reference for researchers and practitioners who dealwith the various problems involving uncertainty and information. AnInstructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all theproblems in the book is available from the Wiley editorialdepartment.
Author : Tamara Afifi,Walid Afifi
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 497 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2015-12-22
Category : Language Arts & Disciplines
ISBN : 9781135890551
This volume integrates scholarly work on disclosure and uncertainty with the most up-to-date, cutting edge research, theories, and applications. Uncertainty is an ever-present part of human relationships, and the ways in which people reduce and/or manage uncertainty involves regulating their communication with others through revealing and concealing information. This collection is devoted to collating knowledge in these areas, advancing theory and presenting work that is socially meaningful. This work includes contributions from renowned scholars in interpersonal uncertainty and information regulation, focusing on processes that bridge boundaries within and across disciplines, while maintaining emphasis on interpersonal contexts. Disciplines represented here include interpersonal, family, and health communication, as well as relational and social psychology. Key features of the volume include: comprehensive coverage integrating the latest research on disclosure, information seeking, and uncertainty a highly theoretical content, socially meaningful in nature (applied to real-world contexts) an interdisciplinary approach that crosses sub-fields within communication. This volume is a unique and timely resource for advanced study in interpersonal, health, or family communication. With its emphasis on theory, the book is an excellent resource for graduate courses addressing theory and/or theory construction, and it will also appeal to scholars interested in applied research.
Author : Jaime Gil-Aluja
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 436 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2004-02-09
Category : Computers
ISBN : 3540203419
Fuzzy Sets in the Management of Uncertainty presents an overview of current problems in business management, primarily for those situations involving decision making of an economic-financial nature. The monograph therefore discusses problems of planning, programming, control and brings light to the entire financial network in its three phases: raising funds, analysis and investment. Special attention is paid to production processes and marketing of products and services. This monograph is a highly readable overview and introduction for scientists, professionals, graduate students, managers and consultants in the growing field of applications and fuzzy logic in the field of management.
Author : John Kay,Mervyn King
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
Page : 407 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2020-03-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781324004783
Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.
Author : David Cleden
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 131 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2017-03-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781351920414
Dealing effectively with uncertainty requires today's project manager to be familiar with a broad spectrum of strategies, encompassing both 'hard' and 'soft' methods. This theme of unified thinking (i.e. the need to selectively draw upon a wide range of strategies in any given situation) will differentiate the book from its contemporaries. By picking up where traditional risk management techniques begin to fail, it brings together leading-edge thinking from a variety of disciplines and shows how these techniques can be used to conquer uncertainty in projects. The ability to make good decisions when faced with uncertainty is the real challenge. It is a universal truth that a decision is only as good as the information it is based on. But good information is often hard to come by, and all projects are vulnerable to the unknown and the unknowable. Thus, uncertainty becomes the sworn enemy of the project manager. Wherever we try to analyse, quantify, plan and act, uncertainty lies in wait to surprise us with its ambiguity and unpredictability. It lurks in every stage of the project lifecycle: in the planning (how long will this really take?), the initiation (this isn't the situation I expected!), the execution (who could have foreseen that happening?), and even the completion of a project (where are the expected benefits?). But managing uncertainty is a lot more than just applying risk management techniques. It requires a deep appreciation of how uncertainty arises and, by recognising its different guises, the appropriate strategies can be formulated. If we can learn how to reduce uncertainty, we can make better management decisions and increase the chances of the project succeeding. This book addresses five key questions: ¢ Why is there uncertainty in projects? ¢ How do you spot the symptoms of uncertainty, preferably at an early stage? ¢ What can be done to avoid uncertainty? ¢ What strategies can be used to deal with project uncertainty? ¢ How can both the individual and the organisation learn to cope more effectively in the future? The reader is assumed to be a either a project management professional, or a senior manager looking for ways to improve project management strategy within their organisation. As such, a foundation in project management basics is assumed, although not essential. The book then builds on this by exposing new ideas and concepts, and shows how these can be harnessed to tackle uncertainty in its many guises.
Author : Alexei Poltoratski
Publisher : American Mathematical Soc.
Page : 216 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2015-03-07
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781470420178
The Uncertainty Principle in Harmonic Analysis (UP) is a classical, yet rapidly developing, area of modern mathematics. Its first significant results and open problems date back to the work of Norbert Wiener, Andrei Kolmogorov, Mark Krein and Arne Beurling. At present, it encompasses a large part of mathematics, from Fourier analysis, frames and completeness problems for various systems of functions to spectral problems for differential operators and canonical systems. These notes are devoted to the so-called Toeplitz approach to UP which recently brought solutions to some of the long-standing problems posed by the classics. After a short overview of the general area of UP the discussion turns to the outline of the new approach and its results. Among those are solutions to Beurling's Gap Problem in Fourier analysis, the Type Problem on completeness of exponential systems, a problem by Pólya and Levinson on sampling sets for entire functions, Bernstein's problem on uniform polynomial approximation, problems on asymptotics of Fourier integrals and a Toeplitz version of the Beurling-Malliavin theory. One of the main goals of the book is to present new directions for future research opened by the new approach to the experts and young analysts. A co-publication of the AMS and CBMS.
Author : Pema Chödrön
Publisher : Shambhala Publications
Page : 145 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2019-05-21
Category : Religion
ISBN : 9781611806809
Instant bestseller: Buddhist teacher Pema Chödrön shares life-changing practices for living with wisdom, confidence, and integrity amidst confusing situations and uncertain times We live in difficult times. Life so often seems like a turbulent river threatening to drown us and destroy our world. Why, then, shouldn’t we cling to the certainty of the comfortable—to our deep-seated habits and familiar ways? Because, Pema Chödrön teaches, that kind of fear-based clinging keeps us from the infinitely more powerful experience of being fully alive. The Buddhist teachings she presents here—known as the “Three Commitments”—provide a treasure trove of wisdom for learning to step right into the unknown, to completely and fearlessly embrace the groundlessness of being human, for people of all faiths. When we do, we begin to see not only how much better it feels to live an openhearted life, but we find that we begin to naturally and more effectively reach out to help and heal all those around us.
Author : Kerstin Preuschoff,Peter N. C. Mohr,Ming Hsu
Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
Page : 144 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2015-06-16
Category : Biological psychiatry
ISBN : 9782889194667
Most decisions in life are based on incomplete information and have uncertain consequences. To successfully cope with real-life situations, the nervous system has to estimate, represent and eventually resolve uncertainty at various levels. A common tradeoff in such decisions involves those between the magnitude of the expected rewards and the uncertainty of obtaining the rewards. For instance, a decision maker may choose to forgo the high expected rewards of investing in the stock market and settle instead for the lower expected reward and much less uncertainty of a savings account. Little is known about how different forms of uncertainty, such as risk or ambiguity, are processed and learned about and how they are integrated with expected rewards and individual preferences throughout the decision making process. With this Research Topic we aim to provide a deeper and more detailed understanding of the processes behind decision making under uncertainty.
