The Usual Uncertainties Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle version is available to download in english. Read online anytime anywhere directly from your device. Click on the download button below to get a free pdf file of The Usual Uncertainties book. This book definitely worth reading, it is an incredibly well-written.
"Jonathan Blum's highly anticipated first collection--is storytelling at its finest. In precise, elegant prose, these stories follow characters and communities often consigned to the edge of the frame: a community college dropout, a geriatric care manager, a square dance bar mitzvah, a Scrabble club, an entrepreneurial Thai immigrant, and a South Florida country club. With echoes of Leonard Michaels, Mavis Gallant, and Lore Segal, Blum explores the ways our divergent histories tether us together and at times push us completely apart. The Usual Uncertainties: Stories revels in the persistent human struggle to love with abandon and marks a dynamic voice in American short fiction."--Publisher's description.
Safety and performance concepts contributions to the workshop sessions model uncertainties new concepts and full scale testing by FIB – International Federation for Structural Concrete Pdf
Jonathan Fields knows the risks-and potential power-of uncertainty. He gave up a six-figure income as a lawyer to make $12 an hour as a personal trainer. Then, married with a 3-month old baby, he signed a lease to launch a yoga center in the heart of New York City. . . the day before 9/11. But he survived, and along the way he developed a fresh approach to transforming uncertainty, risk of loss, and exposure to judgment into catalysts for innovation, creation, and achievement. Properly understood and harnessed, fear and uncertainty can become fuel for creative genius rather than sources of pain, anxiety, and suffering. In business, art, and life, creating on a world-class level demands bold action and leaps of faith in the face of great uncertainty. But that uncertainty can lead to fear, anxiety, paralysis, and destruction. It can gut creativity and stifle innovation. It can keep you from taking the risks necessary to do great work and craft a deeply-rewarding life. And it can bring companies that rely on innovation grinding to a halt. That is, unless you know how to use it to your advantage. Fields draws on leading-edge technology, cognitive-science and ancient awareness-focusing techniques in a fresh, practical, non-dogmatic way. His approach enables creativity and productivity on an entirely different level and can turn the once-tortuous journey into a more enjoyable quest. Fields will reveal how to: Make changes to your workflow that unlock buried creative potential. Build "creation hives" -- supportive groups that can supercharge and humanize the process. Tap social technology and user co-creation to add clarity, certainty, and sanity, even if you're an artist or solo-creator. Develop a set of personal practices and mindset shifts that let you not just tolerate, but invite and even amplify, uncertainty as a catalyst for genius. Drawing on extensive case studies and research, Fields shares a set of detailed personal practices and environmental changes that can not only humanize the creative process, but also allow individuals and teams to stay more open to opportunity and play a bigger creative game.
Dealing with Uncertainties is an innovative monograph that lays special emphasis on the deductive approach to uncertainties and on the shape of uncertainty distributions. This perspective has the potential for dealing with the uncertainty of a single data point and with sets of data that have different weights. It is shown that the inductive approach that is commonly used to estimate uncertainties is in fact not suitable for these two cases. The approach that is used to understand the nature of uncertainties is novel in that it is completely decoupled from measurements. Uncertainties which are the consequence of modern science provide a measure of confidence both in scientific data and in information in everyday life. Uncorrelated uncertainties and correlated uncertainties are fully covered and the weakness of using statistical weights in regression analysis is discussed. The text is abundantly illustrated with examples and includes more than 150 problems to help the reader master the subject.
Author : Sam L. Savage Publisher : John Wiley & Sons Page : 423 pages File Size : 50,7 Mb Release : 2012-03-13 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781118373583
A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savageknown for his creative exposition of difficult subjects describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader’s intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages “Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage’s lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages.” —William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense “Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible.” —Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics
Author : Andy Clark Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA Page : 425 pages File Size : 52,5 Mb Release : 2016 Category : Medical ISBN : 9780190217013
This title brings together work on embodiment, action, and the predictive mind. At the core is the vision of human minds as prediction machines - devices that constantly try to stay one step ahead of the breaking waves of sensory stimulation, by actively predicting the incoming flow. In every situation we encounter, that complex prediction machinery is already buzzing, proactively trying to anticipate the sensory barrage. The book shows in detail how this strange but potent strategy of self-anticipation ushers perception, understanding, and imagination simultaneously onto the cognitive stage.
Scalable Uncertainty Management by Nahla Ben Amor,Benjamin Quost,Martin Theobald Pdf
This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Scalable Uncertainty Management, SUM 2019, which was held in Compiègne, France, in December 2019. The 25 full, 4 short, 4 tutorial, 2 invited keynote papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 44 submissions. The conference is dedicated to the management of large amounts of complex, uncertain, incomplete, or inconsistent information. New approaches have been developed on imprecise probabilities, fuzzy set theory, rough set theory, ordinal uncertainty representations, or even purely qualitative models.
Decision-Making for Biomass-Based Production Chains by Sebnem Yilmaz Balaman Pdf
Decision-Making for Biomass-Based Production Chains: The Basic Concepts and Medothologies presents a comprehensive study of key-issues surrounding the integration of strategic, tactical and operational decision levels for supply chains in the biomass, biofuels and biorefining sectors. Comprehensive sections cover biomass resources, harvesting, collection, storage and distribution systems, along with the necessary technical and technological background of production systems. In addition, the basics of decision-making, problems and decision levels encountered in design, management and operation phases are covered. Case studies are supplied in each chapter, along with a discussion and comparative analysis of topics. The book presents a clear vision of advances in the field. Graduate students and those starting in this line of research will also find the necessary information on how to model this kind of complex system. Finally, this comprehensive resource can be used as a guide for non-expert industry decision-makers and government policymakers who need a thorough overview on the industry. Examines analytic methodologies for complex decision-making when designing, deploying and managing biomass and bio-based products supply chains Includes real-life examples of main sustainability indicators, standards and certification schemes from the European Union, United States and worldwide Explores the progress of decision-making procedures to provide a detailed perspective for effective selection of the most reliable solutions for each kind of problem Provides detailed, in-depth analyses of various models and frameworks for their implementation, challenges and solutions Presents multi-criteria and multi-objective decision-making and modeling approaches, including mathematical modeling, simulation-based modeling, and artificial intelligence-based modeling
Managing Uncertainties in Networks by Johannes Franciscus Maria Koppenjan,Joop Koppenjan,Erik-Hans Klijn Pdf
Despite sophisticated technology and knowledge, the strategic networks and games required to solve uncertainties becomes more complex and more important than ever before.
Isotope Dilution Mass Spectrometry by Jose Alonso,Pablo Gonzalez Pdf
Isotope Dilution Mass Spectrometry (IDMS) has become an essential tool in research laboratories and is increasingly used in routine analysis labs (including environmental, food safety and clinical applications). This is the first textbook to present a comprehensive and instructive view of the theory and applications of this growing technique. The main objective of this book is to cover the theory and applications of Isotope Dilution in Analytical Chemistry. The scope is comprehensive to include elemental analysis, speciation analysis, organic analysis and biochemical and clinical analysis together with applications in metabolism studies and traceability of goods. Until now there have been no books published with the same general scope (only book chapters on particular applications). This is a textbook focused at post-graduate level covering the basic knowledge required for doctoral studies in this field. Isotope Dilution Mass Spectrometry will also outline practical applications of interest for routine testing laboratories where isotope dilution procedures are implemented or can be implemented in the future. This unique book covers all the theoretical and practical aspects of Isotope Dilution Mass Spectrometry (IDMS). Due to the increasing application of IDMS in many research laboratories and the increasing implementation of IDMS methodologies in routine testing laboratories, scientists in industry and working in or affiliated to this area will this an invaluable source of information. Concerning the theoretical aspects, the authors present a uniform theoretical background which grows from previous developments in Organic, Speciation and Elemental analysis both in their own laboratory and in other laboratories around the world. This general approach will be simpler and will also include new emerging fields such as quantitative proteomics and metabolism studies.
Measurement Errors and Uncertainties by Semyon G. Rabinovich Pdf
A practical reference on theory and methods of estimating measurement errors and uncertainty for both scientists and engineers in industry and experimental research. Building on the fundamentals of measurement theory, this book offers a wealth of practial recommendations and procedures. It differs from the majority of books in that it balances coverage of probabilistic methods with detailed information on the characterization, calibration, standardization and limitations of measuring instruments, with specific examples from both electrical and mechanical systems. In addition to a general updating to reflect current research, new material in this edition includes increased coverage of indirect measurements, with a new, simpler, more efficient method for this class of measurements.
