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Tropical Cyclone Modification by Robert C. Sheets Pdf
The Project Stormfury modification theory, its physical basis, and the experiment design are described, and the possible effects of such experiments on tropical cyclone motion, rainfall, wind fields, and storm surge are examined. Studies of natural storm variability, exploratory experiments, sensitivity tests, numerical simulations, and theoretical calculations indicate that experiments conducted according to the Stormfury hypothesis could result in reductions of 10% to 15% in the maximum windspeed and associated damage reductions of 20% to 60%, with no apparent significant and/or detectable effect on storm motion or net rainfall accumulated areawide or at specific locations for a moving storm.
Tropical Cyclones and hurricanes, long feared for the death and destruction that often accompanies them, are among the most fascinating of atmospheric phenomena. Created by thermodynamic processes, they unleash vast amounts of energy and influence a wide variety of natural processes along their paths. Richard Anthes tells the story of tropical cyclones creation and destruction, of meteorology's successes in understanding, modeling and predicting their behavior, and of the attempts to modify them. The book begins with a lively introduction to hurricanes, their awesome power, and their effects on individuals and societies in the past and present. The characteristics of the mature hurricane are revealed by consideration of rawinsonde, aircraft and satellite data. The physical processes responsible for the development and maintenance of tropical cyclones are treated comprehensively, and illustrated with both qualitative and quantitative examples. The role of the planetary boundary layer, cumulus convection and radiation are all discussed in detail. Progress in numerical simulation of tropical cyclones is carefully reviewed. Modern, three-dimensional models succeed in simulating observed features such as the eye and spiral rain bands and in predicting storm motion over time intervals of three days. Current capabilities to predict and modify hurricanes and tropical cyclones are fully examined. The methods and difficulties of operational forecasting, the economic aspects of storm predictions, and the trends in accuracy of offical forecasts are all considered. The potential benefits and scientific problems associated with hurricane modification are discussed as part of a review of experimental and theoretical results on the consquences of seeding hurricane clouds. A unique feature of the book is a thorough treatment of the interactions between storm and ocean, with both observations and thery being integrated to provide a complete description.
Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change by Yassine Charabi Pdf
Tropical cyclones are topic that is not appropriately known to the public at large, but climate change has been on the public’s mind since the last decade and a concern that has peaked in the new millennium. Like the television programs of Jean Yves Cousteau the ‘plight of the oceans’, have recent documentaries nurtured a conscio- ness that major climatological changes are in the offing, even have started to develop. The retreat of glaciers on mountain tops and in Polar Regions is ‘being seen’ on ‘the small screen’ and has favored an environmental awareness in all populations that are enjoying an average well-being on Planet Earth. The vivid images on screen of storms, floods, and tsunamis share the fear provoking landscapes of deforestation, desertification and the like. Watching such as this one is seen are voices warning of what over is ‘in store’ if the causative problems are not remedied. Talking and d- cussing are useful, but action must follow. Understanding the full ramifications of climate change on tropical cyclones is a task that will takes several decades. In Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) a high probability of major changes in tropical cyclone activity across the various ocean basins is highlighted.
Human Impacts on Weather and Climate by William R. Cotton,Roger A. Pielke, Sr Pdf
As the world's population rises, there is increasing evidence that human activities are having a significant impact on the weather and climate, from a local to global scale. Human Impacts on Weather and Climate is a non-mathematical presentation of the basic physical concepts of how human activity may affect weather and climate. This book assesses the current hypotheses, and examines whether the impacts are measurable. Included are: critical evaluations of the scientific status of weather modification by cloud seeding; human impacts on regional weather and climate; and human impacts on global climate, including the greenhouse gas hypothesis. Discussions also focus on the modern philosophy of science and its application to determining human impacts on weather and climate. Human Impacts on Weather and Climate will be invaluable for upper-division undergraduate and graduate courses in meteorology, geophysics, and earth and atmospheric science, as well as for policymakers and readers with an interest in how humans are affecting the atmosphere. An extensive reference list is included.
A Literature Review: Effect of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclones by Kopal Arora Pdf
Essay from the year 2011 in the subject Geography / Earth Science - Meteorology, Aeronomy, Climatology, grade: 11.0, University of Exeter, language: English, abstract: Since tropical cyclones(TCs) are one of the major geophysical cause of loss of life and property, it is important to understand if there is any change in the frequency and intensity of TCs due to anthropogenic climate change. IPCC considers 0.25-0.5 C increase in warming over tropical oceans over the past few decades due to increase in greenhouse gas concentration over past 50years. During 6th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, a statement was released on the connection between the TCs and anthropogenic climate change. The statement was in response to the increase in number of recent high-impact TC events which includes, 10 land falling Tcs in Japan in 2004, 5 TCs affecting the Cook island in a five week period during 2005, cyclone Gafilo in Madagascar in 2004, cyclone Larry in Australia in 2006, typhoon Saomai in China in 2006, and violently active Atlantic TC season during the period of 2004 to 2005, including the catastrophic socioeconomic impact of Hurricane Katrina. A few recent articles [1] have noted a large increase in TC’s intensity, frequency and wind-speeds in some regions during past 5 decades, which could be attributed to the increase in the concentration of green house gases in past 50years. However, other studies explain this noticed increase as a result of better observations made and instruments used, making it easier to detect TCs. Consensus statement by the International workshop on TC-6 reported uncertain conclusions about the influence of climate change on TC after taking into account evidence both for and against. It was concluded that no TC could be solely attributed to the anthropogenic climate change. Model and theory predicts 3-5% increase in wind speed per degree C increase in SST. But, there is inconsistency between the small change in wind speed projected by theory and modelling versus large variations reported by some observational studies. Significant limitation of measurements over some regions make detection of trends difficult. It was suggested that if increase in SST continues, susceptibility to TC storm surge flooding would strengthen.
Hurricanes and Climate Change by Jennifer M. Collins,Kevin Walsh Pdf
This book provides research that shows tropical cyclones are more powerful than in the past with the most dramatic increases occurring over the North Atlantic and with the strongest hurricanes. Although such increases are correlated with warming oceans and are consistent with the thermodynamic theory of hurricane intensity, there remains doubt about the interpretation, integrity, and meaning of these results. Arising from the 5th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change, this book contains new research on topics related to hurricanes and climate change. Bringing together international leading academics and researchers on various sides of the debate, the book discusses new research and expresses opinions about what is happening and what might happen in the future with regard to regional and global hurricane (tropical cyclone) activity.
Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change by U.C. Mohanty,M. Mohapatra,O.P. Singh,B.K. Bandyopadhyay,L.S. Rathore Pdf
This book deals with recent advances in our understanding and prediction of tropical cyclogenesis, intensification and movement as well as landfall processes like heavy rainfall, gale wind and storm surge based on the latest observational and numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling platforms. It also includes tropical cyclone (TC) management issues like early warning systems, recent high impact TC events, disaster preparedness, assessment of risk and vulnerability including construction, archiving and retrieval of the best tracking and historical data sets, policy decision etc., in view of recent findings on climate change aspects and their impact on TC activity. The chapters are authored by leading experts, both from research and operational environments. This book is relevant to cyclone forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, graduate and undergraduate students. It intends to stimulate thinking and hence further research in the field of TCs and climate change, especially over the Indian Ocean region and provides high-quality reference materials for all the users mentioned above for the management of TCs over this region.
National Weather Service,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,NASA,Department of Defense,U. S. Air Force,U. S. Government
Author : National Weather Service,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,NASA,Department of Defense,U. S. Air Force,U. S. Government Publisher : Unknown Page : 315 pages File Size : 49,7 Mb Release : 2017-05-07 Category : Electronic ISBN : 1521240884
History of American Weather and Climate Modification by National Weather Service,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,NASA,Department of Defense,U. S. Air Force,U. S. Government Pdf
Ten unique government reports document the history of attempted weather and climate modification efforts, including Defense Department projections of future programs and a detailed history of Project Stormfury and related hurricane modification trials. Contents: A Recommended National Program In Weather Modification * Weather as a Force Multiplier: Owning the Weather in 2025 * Weather Modification Research and Development Policy Authorization Act of 2005 * Weather and Climate Modification: Report of the Special Commission on Weather Modification * Federal Weather Modification Efforts Need Congressional Attention * An Introduction to Weather Modification * Need for a National Weather Modification Research Program * Hurricane Modification * Project Stormfury * Hurricane Modification and Control Report (April 1971). Can human intervention diminish the force of a hurricane? From the mid-1960s through the early 1980s NOAA actively pursued Project STORMFURY, a program of experimental hurricane modification. The general strategy was to reduce the intensity of the storm by cloud seeding. The seeding, it was argued, would stimulate the formation of a new eyewall that would surround the existing eyewall. The new eyewall would contract, strangling the old eyewall and reducing the intensity of the hurricane. However, research carried out at AOML showed clearly that these "concentric eyewalls" happened often in unmodified hurricanes, thus casting doubt on the seemingly positive results of seeding in earlier experimentation. Hurricane Luis provides an example of this behavior. Moreover, observations showed that hurricanes contain little of the supercooled water necessary for cloud seeding to work. The American Meteorological Society policy statement on planned and inadvertent weather modification, dated October 2, 1998, indicates, "There is no sound physical hypothesis for the modification of hurricanes, tornadoes, or damaging winds in general, and no related scientific experimentation has been conducted in the past 20 years." In the absence of a sound hypothesis, no Federal agencies are presently doing, or planning, research on hurricane modification. Some techniques besides seeding clouds that have been considered over the years include: cooling the ocean with cryogenic material or icebergs, retardation of surface evaporation with monomolecular films, changing the radiational balance in the hurricane environment by absorption of sunlight with carbon black, blowing the hurricane apart with hydrogen bombs, injecting air into the center with a huge maneuverable tube to raise the central pressure, and blowing the storm away from land with windmills. As carefully reasoned as some of these suggestions are, they all fall short of the mark because they fail to appreciate the size and power of tropical cyclones. For example, when hurricane Andrew struck South Florida in 1992, the eye and eyewall devastated a swath 20 miles wide. The heat energy released around the eye was 5,000 times the combined heat and electrical power generation of the Turkey Point nuclear power plant over which the eye passed. Better building codes, wiser land use, and more accurate forecasts seem prosaic compared with environmental mega engineering but they are a great deal cheaper and have overwhelmingly favorable cost-benefit ratios.
