U S Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities

Author : National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Air Force Studies Board,Committee on U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Military Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 178 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2015-01-02
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9780309298742

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U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities by National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Air Force Studies Board,Committee on U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Military Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment Pdf

Since the early 1960s, the U.S. strategic nuclear posture has been composed of a triad of nuclear-certified long-range bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Since the early 1970s, U.S. nuclear forces have been subject to strategic arms control agreements. The large numbers and diversified nature of the U.S. nonstrategic (tactical) nuclear forces, which cannot be ignored as part of the overall nuclear deterrent, have decreased substantially since the Cold War. While there is domestic consensus today on the need to maintain an effective deterrent, there is no consensus on precisely what that requires, especially in a changing geopolitical environment and with continued reductions in nuclear arms. This places a premium on having the best possible analytic tools, methods, and approaches for understanding how nuclear deterrence and assurance work, how they might fail, and how failure can be averted by U.S. nuclear forces. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities identifies the broad analytic issues and factors that must be considered in seeking nuclear deterrence of adversaries and assurance of allies in the 21st century. This report describes and assesses tools, methods - including behavioral science-based methods - and approaches for improving the understanding of how nuclear deterrence and assurance work or may fail in the 21st century and the extent to which such failures might be averted or mitigated by the proper choice of nuclear systems, technological capabilities, postures, and concepts of operation of American nuclear forces. The report recommends criteria and a framework for validating the tools, methods, and approaches and for identifying those most promising for Air Force usage.

Author : National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Air Force Studies Board,Committee on U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 63 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2013-01-01
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9780309285476

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U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment by National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Air Force Studies Board,Committee on U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Pdf

Changes in the 21st century security environment require new analytic approaches to support strategic deterrence. Because current adversaries may be deterred from the use of nuclear weapons differently than were Cold War adversaries, the Air Force needs an analytic process and tools that can help determine those Air Force capabilities that will successfully deter or defeat these new nuclear-armed adversaries and assure U.S. allies. While some analytic tools are available, a coherent approach for their use in developing strategy and policy appears to be lacking. Without a coherent analytic approach that addresses the nuances of today's security environment, Air Force views of its strategic deterrence needs may not be understood or accepted by the appropriate decision makers. A coherent approach will support Air Force decisions about its strategic force priorities and needs, deter actual or potential adversaries, and assure U.S. allies. In this context, the Air Force in 2012 requested that the Air Force Studies Board of the National Research Council undertake a workshop to bring together national experts to discuss current challenges relating strategic deterrence and potential new tools and methods that the Air Force might leverage in its strategic deterrence mission. The workshop consisted of two 3-day sessions held in Washington, DC on September 26-28, 2012 and January 29-31, 2013 and was attended by a very diverse set of participants with expertise in strategic deterrence and a range of analytic tools of potential interest to the Air Force. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment summarizes this workshop.

Author : Norm Haller
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 48 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2013
Category : Air power
ISBN : OCLC:858528520

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U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment by Norm Haller Pdf

"Changes in the 21st century security environment require new analytic approaches to support strategic deterrence. Because current adversaries may be deterred from the use of nuclear weapons differently than were Cold War adversaries, the Air Force needs an analytic process and tools that can help determine those Air Force capabilities that will successfully deter or defeat these new nuclear-armed adversaries and assure U.S. allies. While some analytic tools are available, a coherent approach for their use in developing strategy and policy appears to be lacking. Without a coherent analytic approach that addresses the nuances of today's security environment, Air Force views of its strategic deterrence needs may not be understood or accepted by the appropriate decision makers. A coherent approach will support Air Force decisions about its strategic force priorities and needs, deter actual or potential adversaries, and assure U.S. allies. In this context, the Air Force in 2012 requested that the Air Force Studies Board of the National Research Council undertake a workshop to bring together national experts to discuss current challenges relating strategic deterrence and potential new tools and methods that the Air Force might leverage in its strategic deterrence mission. The workshop consisted of two 3-day sessions held in Washington, DC on September 26-28, 2012 and January 29-31, 2013 and was attended by a very diverse set of participants with expertise in strategic deterrence and a range of analytic tools of potential interest to the Air Force. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment summarizes this workshop."--Publisher's description.

Author : National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Air Force Studies Board,Committee on U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 63 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2013-01-01
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9780309285506

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U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment by National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Air Force Studies Board,Committee on U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Pdf

Changes in the 21st century security environment require new analytic approaches to support strategic deterrence. Because current adversaries may be deterred from the use of nuclear weapons differently than were Cold War adversaries, the Air Force needs an analytic process and tools that can help determine those Air Force capabilities that will successfully deter or defeat these new nuclear-armed adversaries and assure U.S. allies. While some analytic tools are available, a coherent approach for their use in developing strategy and policy appears to be lacking. Without a coherent analytic approach that addresses the nuances of today's security environment, Air Force views of its strategic deterrence needs may not be understood or accepted by the appropriate decision makers. A coherent approach will support Air Force decisions about its strategic force priorities and needs, deter actual or potential adversaries, and assure U.S. allies. In this context, the Air Force in 2012 requested that the Air Force Studies Board of the National Research Council undertake a workshop to bring together national experts to discuss current challenges relating strategic deterrence and potential new tools and methods that the Air Force might leverage in its strategic deterrence mission. The workshop consisted of two 3-day sessions held in Washington, DC on September 26-28, 2012 and January 29-31, 2013 and was attended by a very diverse set of participants with expertise in strategic deterrence and a range of analytic tools of potential interest to the Air Force. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment summarizes this workshop.

Author : Erik Gartzke,Jon R. Lindsay
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 384 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2019-02-01
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780190908669

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Cross-Domain Deterrence by Erik Gartzke,Jon R. Lindsay Pdf

The complexity of the twenty-first century threat landscape contrasts markedly with the bilateral nuclear bargaining context envisioned by classical deterrence theory. Nuclear and conventional arsenals continue to develop alongside anti-satellite programs, autonomous robotics or drones, cyber operations, biotechnology, and other innovations barely imagined in the early nuclear age. The concept of cross-domain deterrence (CDD) emerged near the end of the George W. Bush administration as policymakers and commanders confronted emerging threats to vital military systems in space and cyberspace. The Pentagon now recognizes five operational environments or so-called domains (land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace), and CDD poses serious problems in practice. In Cross-Domain Deterrence, Erik Gartzke and Jon R. Lindsay assess the theoretical relevance of CDD for the field of International Relations. As a general concept, CDD posits that how actors choose to deter affects the quality of the deterrence they achieve. Contributors to this volume include senior and junior scholars and national security practitioners. Their chapters probe the analytical utility of CDD by examining how differences across, and combinations of, different military and non-military instruments can affect choices and outcomes in coercive policy in historical and contemporary cases.

Author : Stephen J Cimbala
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 241 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2017-07-05
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781317086499

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Nuclear Deterrence in a Multipolar World by Stephen J Cimbala Pdf

The view that America and Russia have burned their candles on security cooperation with respect to nuclear weapons is simply mistaken. This timely study identifies twelve themes or issue areas that must be addressed by the United States and Russia if they are to provide shared, successful leadership in the management of nuclear world order. Designed as supplementary reading in upper division and graduate courses in national security policy, defense, and nuclear arms control, it is also suitable for courses taught at military staff and command colleges and-or war colleges.

Author : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Armed Services
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 644 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2015
Category : Military research
ISBN : STANFORD:36105050685259

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National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2016 by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Armed Services Pdf

Author : Tim Sweijs,Artur Ursanov,Rik Rutten,Stephan de Spiegeleire,Frank Bekkers,Scott Michael Ward,Willem Theo Oosterveld,Clarissa Skinner
Publisher : The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
Page : 69 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2016-03-10
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9789492102331

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Back to the brink by Tim Sweijs,Artur Ursanov,Rik Rutten,Stephan de Spiegeleire,Frank Bekkers,Scott Michael Ward,Willem Theo Oosterveld,Clarissa Skinner Pdf

Author : Colette Faucher
Publisher : Springer
Page : 459 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2017-11-03
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783319670249

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Advances in Culturally-Aware Intelligent Systems and in Cross-Cultural Psychological Studies by Colette Faucher Pdf

This book offers valuable new insights into the design of culturally-aware systems. In its first part, it is devoted to presenting selected Culturally-Aware Intelligent Systems devised in the field of Artificial Intelligence and its second part consists of two sub-parts that offer a source of inspiration for building modelizations of Culture and of its influence on the human mind and behavior, to be used in new Culturally-Aware Intelligent Systems. Those sub-parts present the results of experiments conducted in two fields that study Culture and its influence on the human mind’s functions: Cultural Neuroscience and Cross-Cultural Psychology. In this era of globalization, people from different countries and cultures have the opportunity to interact directly or indirectly in a wide variety of contexts. Despite differences in their ways of thinking and reasoning, their behaviors, their values, lifestyles, customs and habits, languages, religions – in a word, their cultures – they must be able to collaborate on projects, to understand each other’s views, to communicate in such a way that they don’t offend each other, to anticipate the effects of their actions on others, and so on. As such, it is of primary importance to understand how culture affects people’s mental activities, such as perception, interpretation, reasoning, emotion and behavior, in order to anticipate possible misunderstandings due to differences in handling the same situation, and to try and resolve them. Artificial Intelligence, and more specifically, the field of Intelligent Systems design, aims at building systems that mimic the behavior of human beings in order to complete tasks more efficiently than humans could by themselves. Consequently, in the last decade, experts and scholars in the field of Intelligent Systems have been increasingly tackling the notion of cultural awareness. A Culturally-Aware Intelligent System can be defined as a system where Culture-related or, more generally, socio-cultural information is modeled and used to design the human-machine interface, or to provide support with the task carried out by the system, be it reasoning, simulation or any other task involving cultural knowledge.

Author : Paul K. Davis,Angela O'Mahony,Jonathan Pfautz
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 881 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2019-03-18
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781119484974

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Social-Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems by Paul K. Davis,Angela O'Mahony,Jonathan Pfautz Pdf

This volume describes frontiers in social-behavioral modeling for contexts as diverse as national security, health, and on-line social gaming. Recent scientific and technological advances have created exciting opportunities for such improvements. However, the book also identifies crucial scientific, ethical, and cultural challenges to be met if social-behavioral modeling is to achieve its potential. Doing so will require new methods, data sources, and technology. The volume discusses these, including those needed to achieve and maintain high standards of ethics and privacy. The result should be a new generation of modeling that will advance science and, separately, aid decision-making on major social and security-related subjects despite the myriad uncertainties and complexities of social phenomena. Intended to be relatively comprehensive in scope, the volume balances theory-driven, data-driven, and hybrid approaches. The latter may be rapidly iterative, as when artificial-intelligence methods are coupled with theory-driven insights to build models that are sound, comprehensible and usable in new situations. With the intent of being a milestone document that sketches a research agenda for the next decade, the volume draws on the wisdom, ideas and suggestions of many noted researchers who draw in turn from anthropology, communications, complexity science, computer science, defense planning, economics, engineering, health systems, medicine, neuroscience, physics, political science, psychology, public policy and sociology. In brief, the volume discusses: Cutting-edge challenges and opportunities in modeling for social and behavioral science Special requirements for achieving high standards of privacy and ethics New approaches for developing theory while exploiting both empirical and computational data Issues of reproducibility, communication, explanation, and validation Special requirements for models intended to inform decision making about complex social systems

Author : Charles Turnitsa,Curtis Blais,Andreas Tolk
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 466 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2022-02-15
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781119604785

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Simulation and Wargaming by Charles Turnitsa,Curtis Blais,Andreas Tolk Pdf

Understanding the potential synergies between computer simulation and wargaming Based on the insights of experts in both domains, Simulation and Wargaming comprehensively explores the intersection between computer simulation and wargaming. This book shows how the practice of wargaming can be augmented and provide more detail-oriented insights using computer simulation, particularly as the complexity of military operations and the need for computational decision aids increases. The distinguished authors have hit upon two practical areas that have tremendous applications to share with one another but do not seem to be aware of that fact. The book includes insights into: The application of the data-driven speed inherent to computer simulation to wargames The application of the insight and analysis gained from wargames to computer simulation The areas of concern raised by the combination of these two disparate yet related fields New research and application opportunities emerging from the intersection Addressing professionals in the wargaming, modeling, and simulation industries, as well as decision makers and organizational leaders involved with wargaming and simulation, Simulation and Wargaming offers a multifaceted and insightful read and provides the foundation for future interdisciplinary progress in both domains.

Author : Thomas C. Schelling
Publisher : Yale University Press
Page : 337 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2020-03-17
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780300253481

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Arms and Influence by Thomas C. Schelling Pdf

“This is a brilliant and hardheaded book. It will frighten those who prefer not to dwell on the unthinkable and infuriate those who have taken refuge in stereotypes and moral attitudinizing.”—Gordon A. Craig, New York Times Book Review Originally published more than fifty years ago, this landmark book explores the ways in which military capabilities—real or imagined—are used, skillfully or clumsily, as bargaining power. Anne-Marie Slaughter’s new introduction to the work shows how Schelling’s framework—conceived of in a time of superpowers and mutually assured destruction—still applies to our multipolar world, where wars are fought as much online as on the ground.

Author : Lauren Caston,Robert S. Leonard,Christopher A. Mouton,Chad J. R. Ohlandt,S. Craig Moore,Raymond E. Conley,Glenn Buchan
Publisher : Rand Corporation
Page : 185 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2014-02-04
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780833076267

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The Future of the U.S. Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Force by Lauren Caston,Robert S. Leonard,Christopher A. Mouton,Chad J. R. Ohlandt,S. Craig Moore,Raymond E. Conley,Glenn Buchan Pdf

The authors assess alternatives for a next-generation intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) across a broad set of potential characteristics and situations. They use the current Minuteman III as a baseline to develop a framework to characterize alternative classes of ICBMs, assess the survivability and effectiveness of possible alternatives, and weigh those alternatives against their cost.

Author : National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications,Naval Studies Board
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 243 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 1997-04-02
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9780309175104

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Post-Cold War Conflict Deterrence by National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications,Naval Studies Board Pdf

Deterrence as a strategic concept evolved during the Cold War. During that period, deterrence strategy was aimed mainly at preventing aggression against the United States and its close allies by the hostile Communist power centersâ€"the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and its allies, Communist China and North Korea. In particular, the strategy was devised to prevent aggression involving nuclear attack by the USSR or China. Since the end of the Cold War, the risk of war among the major powers has subsided to the lowest point in modern history. Still, the changing nature of the threats to American and allied security interests has stimulated a considerable broadening of the deterrence concept. Post-Cold War Conflict Deterrence examines the meaning of deterrence in this new environment and identifies key elements of a post-Cold War deterrence strategy and the critical issues in devising such a strategy. It further examines the significance of these findings for the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps. Quantitative and qualitative measures to support judgments about the potential success or failure of deterrence are identified. Such measures will bear on the suitability of the naval forces to meet the deterrence objectives. The capabilities of U.S. naval forces that especially bear on the deterrence objectives also are examined. Finally, the book examines the utility of models, games, and simulations as decision aids in improving the naval forces' understanding of situations in which deterrence must be used and in improving the potential success of deterrence actions.

Author : Air Univeristy Press
Publisher : Military Bookshop
Page : 344 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2014-09-01
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 1782667105

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Thinking about Deterrence by Air Univeristy Press Pdf

With many scholars and analysts questioning the relevance of deterrence as a valid strategic concept, this volume moves beyond Cold War nuclear deterrence to show the many ways in which deterrence is applicable to contemporary security. It examines the possibility of applying deterrence theory and practice to space, to cyberspace, and against non-state actors. It also examines the role of nuclear deterrence in the twenty-first century and reaches surprising conclusions.