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Author : J.L. Ford,John D. Hey,Mark Machina
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 1990
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1415081176
Author : George Lennox Sharman Shackle
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 296 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 1990
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UCAL:B4373842
Time, Expectations and Uncertainty in Economics presents in one volume a selection of those papers which best represent Professor Shackle's important and lasting contribution to economics.
Author : G. L. S. Shackle
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 292 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2010-08-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 052115331X
This book is a collection of some of Professor Shackle's papers written between 1939 and 1953 is largely concerned with the problems of 'expectation' and 'uncertainty' and with reducing these universal factors to some sort of plausible rules. Also included are essays on interest rates, on investment and employment, and on the philosophy of economics. This book, by one of the finest economic writers of his time, will appeal to anyone with an interest in the history of economics.
Author : Sean Holly,Andrew Hughes Hallett
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 258 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 1989-07-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780521264440
An examination of how the rational expectations revolution and game theory have enhanced the understanding of how an economy functions.
Author : T. Palley
Publisher : Springer
Page : 253 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 1996-06-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780230374126
This book provides an important and original statement of Post Keynesian macroeconomic theory, focusing on the significance of privately created inside debts and income distribution for the determination of economic activity. The material is presented in a clear and accessible format
Author : George Lennox Sharman Shackle
Publisher : Westport, Ct. : Hyperion Press
Page : 146 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 1979
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0883558165
Author : Eric Barthalon
Publisher : Columbia University Press
Page : 445 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2014-11-18
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780231538305
Eric Barthalon applies the neglected theory of psychological time and memory decay of Nobel Prize–winning economist Maurice Allais (1911–2010) to model investors' psychology in the present context of recurrent financial crises. Shaped by the behavior of the demand for money during episodes of hyperinflation, Allais's theory suggests economic agents perceive the flow of clocks' time and forget the past at a context-dependent pace: rapidly in the presence of persistent and accelerating inflation and slowly in the event of the opposite situation. Barthalon recasts Allais's work as a general theory of "expectations" under uncertainty, narrowing the gap between economic theory and investors' behavior. Barthalon extends Allais's theory to the field of financial instability, demonstrating its relevance to nominal interest rates in a variety of empirical scenarios and the positive nonlinear feedback that exists between asset price inflation and the demand for risky assets. Reviewing the works of the leading protagonists in the expectations controversy, Barthalon exposes the limitations of adaptive and rational expectations models and, by means of the perceived risk of loss, calls attention to the speculative bubbles that lacked the positive displacement discussed in Kindleberger's model of financial crises. He ultimately extrapolates Allaisian theory into a pragmatic approach to investor behavior and the natural instability of financial markets. He concludes with the policy implications for governments and regulators. Balanced and coherent, this book will be invaluable to researchers working in macreconomics, financial economics, behavioral finance, decision theory, and the history of economic thought.
Author : Jack Hirshleifer
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 1989
Category : Information theory in economics
ISBN : OCLC:1360060453
Author : G.L.S. Shackle
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 168 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2013-10-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781136518201
G.L.S. Shackle made numerous, pioneering contributions to the study of uncertainty in economic life. This volume studies the production process, where resources must be committed to specific technological purposes long in advance of the ultimate sale of goods to the consumer. The problems of such a system rest on the durability of the instruments it uses, whose huge expense can only be recouped if they can be used for many years. Yet at the time of investment, those years of use are in the future and uncertain. The firm is the essential institutional means of confronting this uncertainty. Expectation, Enterprise and Profit is concerned with the nature and mode of life of the firm as a means of policy formation in the face of uncertainty. Chapters include: The Nature and Matrix of Production, Investment and Expectation, Interdependent Decision-Making and Profit and Equilibrium.
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 299 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 1972
Category : Decision making
ISBN : OCLC:490126750
Author : Ruediger Bachmann,Giorgio Topa,Wilbert van der Klaauw
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 876 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2022-11-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780128234761
Handbook of Economic Expectations discusses the state-of-the-art in the collection, study and use of expectations data in economics, including the modelling of expectations formation and updating, as well as open questions and directions for future research. The book spans a broad range of fields, approaches and applications using data on subjective expectations that allows us to make progress on fundamental questions around the formation and updating of expectations by economic agents and their information sets. The information included will help us study heterogeneity and potential biases in expectations and analyze impacts on behavior and decision-making under uncertainty. Combines information about the creation of economic expectations and their theories, applications and likely futures Provides a comprehensive summary of economics expectations literature Explores empirical and theoretical dimensions of expectations and their relevance to a wide array of subfields in economics
Author : Christian Müller-Kademann
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 122 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2019-01-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780429667213
This book is set against the assumption that humans' unique feature is their infinite creativity, their ability to reflect on their deeds and to control their actions. These skills give rise to genuine uncertainty in society and hence in the economy. Here, the author sets out that uncertainty must take centre stage in all analyses of human decision making and therefore in economics. Uncertainty and Economics carefully defines a taxonomy of uncertainty and argues that it is only uncertainty in its most radical form which matters to economics. It shows that uncertainty is a powerful concept that not only helps to resolve long-standing economic puzzles but also unveils serious contradictions within current, popular economic approaches. It argues that neoclassical, real business cycle, or new-Keynesian economics must be understood as only one way to circumvent the analytical challenges posed by uncertainty. Instead, embracing uncertainty offers a new analytical paradigm which, in this book, is applied to standard economic topics such as institutions, money, the Lucas critique, fiscal policy and asset pricing. Through applying a concise uncertainty paradigm, the book sheds new light on human decision making at large. Offering policy conclusions and recommendations for further theoretical and applied research, it will be of great interest to postgraduate students, academics and policy makers.
Author : William Darity,Robert Leeson,Warren Young
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 177 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2004-03-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781134886241
The concept of rational expectations has played a hugely important role in economics over the years. Dealing with the origins and development of modern approaches to expectations in micro and macroeconomics, this book makes use of primary sources and previously unpublished material from such figures as Hicks, Hawtrey and Hart. The accounts of the 'founding fathers' of the models themselves are also presented here for the first time. The authors trace the development of different approaches to expectations from the likes of Hayek, Morgenstern, and Coase right up to more modern theorists such as Friedman, Patinkin, Phelps and Lucas. The startling conclusion that there was no 'Rational Expectations Revolution' is articulated, supported and defended with impressive clarity and authority. A necessity for economists across the world, this book will deserve its place upon many an academic bookshelf.
Author : Jens Beckert,Richard Bronk
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 368 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2018-07-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780192552754
Uncertain Futures considers how economic actors visualize the future and decide how to act in conditions of radical uncertainty. It starts from the premise that dynamic capitalist economies are characterized by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. The organizing question then becomes how economic actors form expectations and make decisions despite the uncertainty they face. This edited volume lays the foundations for a new model of economic reasoning by showing how, in conditions of uncertainty, economic actors combine calculation with imaginaries and narratives to form fictional expectations that coordinate action and provide the confidence to act. It draws on groundbreaking research in economic sociology, economics, anthropology, and psychology to present theoretically grounded empirical case studies. These demonstrate how grand narratives, central bank forward guidance, economic forecasts, finance models, business plans, visions of technological futures, and new era stories influence behaviour and become instruments of power in markets and societies. The market impact of shared calculative devices, social narratives, and contingent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of narrative economics.
Author : Lars Peter Hansen,Thomas J. Sargent
Publisher : World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated
Page : 454 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2014
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9814578118
"Studying this work in real time taught me a lot, but seeing it laid out in conceptual, rather than chronological, order provides even clearer insights into the evolution of this provocative line of research. Hansen and Sargent are two of the best economists of our time, they are also among the most dedicated teachers in our profession. They have once again moved the research frontier, and with this book provide a roadmap for the rest of us to follow. This is a must-have for anyone interested in modeling uncertainty, ambiguity and robustness."Stanley E ZinWilliam R Berkley Professor of Economics and BusinessLeonard N Stern School of BusinessNew York UniversityWritten by Lars Peter Hansen (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2013) and Thomas Sargent (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2011), Uncertainty within Economic Models includes articles adapting and applying robust control theory to problems in economics and finance. This book extends rational expectations models by including agents who doubt their models and adopt precautionary decisions designed to protect themselves from adverse consequences of model misspecification. This behavior has consequences for what are ordinarily interpreted as market prices of risk, but big parts of which should actually be interpreted as market prices of model uncertainty. The chapters discuss ways of calibrating agents' fears of model misspecification in quantitative contexts.