Uncertainty Quantification And Model Calibration

Author : Jan Peter Hessling
Publisher : BoD – Books on Demand
Page : 228 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2017-07-05
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9789535132790

Get Book

Uncertainty Quantification and Model Calibration by Jan Peter Hessling Pdf

Uncertainty quantification may appear daunting for practitioners due to its inherent complexity but can be intriguing and rewarding for anyone with mathematical ambitions and genuine concern for modeling quality. Uncertainty quantification is what remains to be done when too much credibility has been invested in deterministic analyses and unwarranted assumptions. Model calibration describes the inverse operation targeting optimal prediction and refers to inference of best uncertain model estimates from experimental calibration data. The limited applicability of most state-of-the-art approaches to many of the large and complex calculations made today makes uncertainty quantification and model calibration major topics open for debate, with rapidly growing interest from both science and technology, addressing subtle questions such as credible predictions of climate heating.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 19??
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9535132806

Get Book

Uncertainty Quantification and Model Calibration by Anonim Pdf

Author : Ralph C. Smith
Publisher : SIAM
Page : 383 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2013-12-02
Category : Estimation theory
ISBN : 9781611973228

Get Book

Uncertainty Quantification by Ralph C. Smith Pdf

The field of uncertainty quantification is evolving rapidly because of increasing emphasis on models that require quantified uncertainties for large-scale applications, novel algorithm development, and new computational architectures that facilitate implementation of these algorithms. Uncertainty Quantification: Theory, Implementation, and Applications provides readers with the basic concepts, theory, and algorithms necessary to quantify input and response uncertainties for simulation models arising in a broad range of disciplines. The book begins with a detailed discussion of applications where uncertainty quantification is critical for both scientific understanding and policy. It then covers concepts from probability and statistics, parameter selection techniques, frequentist and Bayesian model calibration, propagation of uncertainties, quantification of model discrepancy, surrogate model construction, and local and global sensitivity analysis. The author maintains a complementary web page where readers can find data used in the exercises and other supplementary material.

Author : Haris Doukas,Alexandros Flamos,Jenny Lieu
Publisher : Springer
Page : 271 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2018-12-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783030031527

Get Book

Understanding Risks and Uncertainties in Energy and Climate Policy by Haris Doukas,Alexandros Flamos,Jenny Lieu Pdf

This open access book analyzes and seeks to consolidate the use of robust quantitative tools and qualitative methods for the design and assessment of energy and climate policies. In particular, it examines energy and climate policy performance and associated risks, as well as public acceptance and portfolio analysis in climate policy, and presents methods for evaluating the costs and benefits of flexible policy implementation as well as new framings for business and market actors. In turn, it discusses the development of alternative policy pathways and the identification of optimal switching points, drawing on concrete examples to do so. Lastly, it discusses climate change mitigation policies’ implications for the agricultural, food, building, transportation, service and manufacturing sectors.

Author : Ne-Zheng Sun,Alexander Sun
Publisher : Springer
Page : 621 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2015-07-01
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781493923236

Get Book

Model Calibration and Parameter Estimation by Ne-Zheng Sun,Alexander Sun Pdf

This three-part book provides a comprehensive and systematic introduction to these challenging topics such as model calibration, parameter estimation, reliability assessment, and data collection design. Part 1 covers the classical inverse problem for parameter estimation in both deterministic and statistical frameworks, Part 2 is dedicated to system identification, hyperparameter estimation, and model dimension reduction, and Part 3 considers how to collect data and construct reliable models for prediction and decision-making. For the first time, topics such as multiscale inversion, stochastic field parameterization, level set method, machine learning, global sensitivity analysis, data assimilation, model uncertainty quantification, robust design, and goal-oriented modeling, are systematically described and summarized in a single book from the perspective of model inversion, and elucidated with numerical examples from environmental and water resources modeling. Readers of this book will not only learn basic concepts and methods for simple parameter estimation, but also get familiar with advanced methods for modeling complex systems. Algorithms for mathematical tools used in this book, such as numerical optimization, automatic differentiation, adaptive parameterization, hierarchical Bayesian, metamodeling, Markov chain Monte Carlo, are covered in details. This book can be used as a reference for graduate and upper level undergraduate students majoring in environmental engineering, hydrology, and geosciences. It also serves as an essential reference book for professionals such as petroleum engineers, mining engineers, chemists, mechanical engineers, biologists, biology and medical engineering, applied mathematicians, and others who perform mathematical modeling.

Author : T. Simmermacher,Scott Cogan,L.G. Horta,R. Barthorpe
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 194 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2012-04-23
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781461424314

Get Book

Topics in Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 4 by T. Simmermacher,Scott Cogan,L.G. Horta,R. Barthorpe Pdf

Topics in Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 4, Proceedings of the 30th IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Structural Dynamics, 2012, the fourth volume of six from the Conference, brings together 19 contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Structural Dynamics, including papers on: Robustness to Lack of Knowledge in Design Bayesian and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Uncertainty Quantification Model Calibration

Author : H. Sezer Atamturktur,Babak Moaveni,Costas Papadimitriou,Tyler Schoenherr
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 427 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2014-04-11
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783319045528

Get Book

Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3 by H. Sezer Atamturktur,Babak Moaveni,Costas Papadimitriou,Tyler Schoenherr Pdf

This third volume of eight from the IMAC - XXXII Conference, brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Structural Dynamics, including papers on: Linear Systems Substructure Modelling Adaptive Structures Experimental Techniques Analytical Methods Damage Detection Damping of Materials & Members Modal Parameter Identification Modal Testing Methods System Identification Active Control Modal Parameter Estimation Processing Modal Data

Author : Yan Wang,David L. McDowell
Publisher : Woodhead Publishing Limited
Page : 604 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2020-03-12
Category : Materials science
ISBN : 9780081029411

Get Book

Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale Materials Modeling by Yan Wang,David L. McDowell Pdf

Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale Materials Modeling provides a complete overview of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in computational materials science. It provides practical tools and methods along with examples of their application to problems in materials modeling. UQ methods are applied to various multiscale models ranging from the nanoscale to macroscale. This book presents a thorough synthesis of the state-of-the-art in UQ methods for materials modeling, including Bayesian inference, surrogate modeling, random fields, interval analysis, and sensitivity analysis, providing insight into the unique characteristics of models framed at each scale, as well as common issues in modeling across scales.

Author : Roger Ghanem,David Higdon,Howman Owhadi
Publisher : Springer
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2016-05-08
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 331912384X

Get Book

Handbook of Uncertainty Quantification by Roger Ghanem,David Higdon,Howman Owhadi Pdf

The topic of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) has witnessed massive developments in response to the promise of achieving risk mitigation through scientific prediction. It has led to the integration of ideas from mathematics, statistics and engineering being used to lend credence to predictive assessments of risk but also to design actions (by engineers, scientists and investors) that are consistent with risk aversion. The objective of this Handbook is to facilitate the dissemination of the forefront of UQ ideas to their audiences. We recognize that these audiences are varied, with interests ranging from theory to application, and from research to development and even execution.

Author : Robert Barthorpe
Publisher : Springer
Page : 312 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2018-07-30
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783319747934

Get Book

Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3 by Robert Barthorpe Pdf

Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3: Proceedings of the 36th IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Structural Dynamics, 2018, the third volume of nine from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, including papers on: Uncertainty Quantification in Material Models Uncertainty Propagation in Structural Dynamics Practical Applications of MVUQ Advances in Model Validation & Uncertainty Quantification: Model Updating Model Validation & Uncertainty Quantification: Industrial Applications Controlling Uncertainty Uncertainty in Early Stage Design Modeling of Musical Instruments Overview of Model Validation and Uncertainty

Author : Sez Atamturktur,Tyler Schoenherr,Babak Moaveni,Costas Papadimitriou
Publisher : Springer
Page : 379 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2016-06-27
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783319297545

Get Book

Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3 by Sez Atamturktur,Tyler Schoenherr,Babak Moaveni,Costas Papadimitriou Pdf

Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantifi cation, Volume 3. Proceedings of the 34th IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Dynamics of Multiphysical Systems: From Active Materials to Vibroacoustics, 2016, the third volume of ten from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. Th e collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Structural Dynamics, including papers on: • Uncertainty Quantifi cation & Model Validation • Uncertainty Propagation in Structural Dynamics • Bayesian & Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods • Practical Applications of MVUQ • Advances in MVUQ & Model Updating • Robustness in Design & Validation • Verifi cation & Validation Methods

Author : Jakub Bijak
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 277 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2021-12-09
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9783030830397

Get Book

Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography by Jakub Bijak Pdf

This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration – one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from dedicated laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly.

Author : Roland Platz,Garrison Flynn,Kyle Neal,Scott Ouellette
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 208 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2023-10-06
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783031370038

Get Book

Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3 by Roland Platz,Garrison Flynn,Kyle Neal,Scott Ouellette Pdf

Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3: Proceedings of the 41st IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Structural Dynamics, 2023, the third volume of ten from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, including papers on: Introduction of Uncertainty Quantification Uncertainty Quantification in Dynamics Model Form Uncertainty and Selection incl. Round Robin Challenge Sensor and Information Fusion Virtual Sensing, Certification, and Real-Time Monitoring Surrogate Modeling

Author : Zhu Mao
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 426 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2020-10-27
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783030476380

Get Book

Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3 by Zhu Mao Pdf

Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3: Proceedings of the 38th IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Structural Dynamics, 2020, the third volume of nine from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, including papers on: Uncertainty Quantification in Material Models Uncertainty Propagation in Structural Dynamics Practical Applications of MVUQ Advances in Model Validation & Uncertainty Quantification: Model Updating Model Validation & Uncertainty Quantification: Industrial Applications Controlling Uncertainty Uncertainty in Early Stage Design Modeling of Musical Instruments Overview of Model Validation and Uncertainty

Author : T. Simmermacher,Scott Cogan,L.G. Horta,R. Barthorpe
Publisher : Springer
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2012-04-24
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 1461424305

Get Book

Topics in Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 4 by T. Simmermacher,Scott Cogan,L.G. Horta,R. Barthorpe Pdf

Topics in Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 4, Proceedings of the 30th IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Structural Dynamics, 2012, the fourth volume of six from the Conference, brings together 19 contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Structural Dynamics, including papers on: Robustness to Lack of Knowledge in Design Bayesian and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Uncertainty Quantification Model Calibration