Understanding Elections Through Statistics

Author : Ole J. Forsberg
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 209 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2020-11-02
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781000205749

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Understanding Elections through Statistics by Ole J. Forsberg Pdf

Elections are random events. From individuals deciding whether to vote, to people deciding for whom to vote, to election authorities deciding what to count, the outcomes of competitive democratic elections are rarely known until election day...or beyond. Understanding Elections through Statistics: Polling, Prediction, and Testing explores this random phenomenon from two points of view: predicting the election outcome using opinion polls and testing the election outcome using government-reported data. Written for those with only a brief introduction to statistics, this book takes you on a statistical journey from how polls are taken to how they can—and should—be used to estimate current popular opinion. Once an understanding of the election process is built, we turn toward testing elections for evidence of unfairness. While holding elections has become the de facto proof of government legitimacy, those electoral processes may hide a dirty little secret of the government illicitly ensuring a favorable election outcome. This book includes these features designed to make your statistical journey more enjoyable: Vignettes of elections, including maps, to provide concrete bases for the material In-chapter cues to help one avoid the heavy math—or to focus on it End-of-chapter problems designed to review and extend that which was covered in the chapter Many opportunities to turn the power of the R statistical environment to the enclosed election data files, as well as to those you find interesting From these features, it is clear the audience for this book is quite diverse. This text provides mathematics for those interested in mathematics, but also offers detours for those who just want a good read and a deeper understanding of elections. Author Ole J. Forsberg holds PhDs in both political science and statistics. He currently teaches mathematics and statistics in the Department of Mathematics at Knox College in Galesburg, IL.

Author : Ole J. Forsberg
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 187 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2020-11-16
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781000205800

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Understanding Elections through Statistics by Ole J. Forsberg Pdf

Elections are random events. From individuals deciding whether to vote, to people deciding for whom to vote, to election authorities deciding what to count, the outcomes of competitive democratic elections are rarely known until election day...or beyond. Understanding Elections through Statistics: Polling, Prediction, and Testing explores this random phenomenon from two points of view: predicting the election outcome using opinion polls and testing the election outcome using government-reported data. Written for those with only a brief introduction to statistics, this book takes you on a statistical journey from how polls are taken to how they can—and should—be used to estimate current popular opinion. Once an understanding of the election process is built, we turn toward testing elections for evidence of unfairness. While holding elections has become the de facto proof of government legitimacy, those electoral processes may hide a dirty little secret of the government illicitly ensuring a favorable election outcome. This book includes these features designed to make your statistical journey more enjoyable: Vignettes of elections, including maps, to provide concrete bases for the material In-chapter cues to help one avoid the heavy math—or to focus on it End-of-chapter problems designed to review and extend that which was covered in the chapter Many opportunities to turn the power of the R statistical environment to the enclosed election data files, as well as to those you find interesting From these features, it is clear the audience for this book is quite diverse. This text provides mathematics for those interested in mathematics, but also offers detours for those who just want a good read and a deeper understanding of elections. Author Ole J. Forsberg holds PhDs in both political science and statistics. He currently teaches mathematics and statistics in the Department of Mathematics at Knox College in Galesburg, IL.

Author : Deborah Kalb
Publisher : CQ Press
Page : 5119 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2015-12-24
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781483380384

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Guide to U.S. Elections by Deborah Kalb Pdf

The CQ Press Guide to U.S. Elections is a comprehensive, two-volume reference providing information on the U.S. electoral process, in-depth analysis on specific political eras and issues, and everything in between. Thoroughly revised and infused with new data, analysis, and discussion of issues relating to elections through 2014, the Guide will include chapters on: Analysis of the campaigns for presidency, from the primaries through the general election Data on the candidates, winners/losers, and election returns Details on congressional and gubernatorial contests supplemented with vast historical data. Key Features include: Tables, boxes and figures interspersed throughout each chapter Data on campaigns, election methods, and results Complete lists of House and Senate leaders Links to election-related websites A guide to party abbreviations

Author : Peter Galderisi
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 364 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2015-03-12
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781136819506

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Understanding Political Science Statistics by Peter Galderisi Pdf

In politics, you begin by asking theoretically interesting questions. Sometimes statistics can help answer those questions. When it comes to applied statistics, students shouldn’t just learn a vast array of formula—they need to learn the basic concepts of statistics as solutions to particular problems. Peter Galderisi demonstrates that statistics are a summary of how to answer the problem: learn the math but only after learning the concepts and methodological considerations that give it context. With this as a starting point, Understanding Political Science Statistics asks students to consider how to address a research problem conceptually before being led to the appropriate formula. Throughout, Galderisi looks at problems through a lens of "observations and expectations," which can be applied to myriad statistical techniques, both descriptive and inferential. This approach links the answers researchers get from their individual data analysis to the research designs and questions from which these analyses are derived. By emphasizing the underlying logic of statistical analysis for greater understanding and drawing on applications and examples from political science (including law), the book illustrates how students can apply statistical concepts and techniques in their own research, in future coursework, and simply as an informed consumer of numbers in public discourse. The following features help students master the material: Legal and Methodological sidebars highlight key concepts and provide applied examples on law, politics, and methodology; End-of-chapter exercises allow students to test their mastery of the basic concepts and techniques along the way; A Sample Solutions Guide provides worked-out answers for odd-numbered exercises, with all answers available in the Instructor’s Manual; Key Terms are helpfully called out in both Marginal Definitions and a Glossary; A Companion Website (www.routledge.com/cw/galderisi) with further resources for both students and instructors; A diverse array of data sets include subsets of the ANES and Eurobarometer surveys; CCES; US Congressional district data; and a cross-national dataset with political, economic, and demographic variables; and Companion guides to SPSS and Stata walk students through the procedures for analysis and provide exercises that go hand-in-hand with online data sets.

Author : Ray Fair
Publisher : Stanford University Press
Page : 234 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2011-12-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780804778022

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Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition by Ray Fair Pdf

"It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape—but Fair doesn't stop there. Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well—including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things and find out! As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.

Author : W.D. Wallis
Publisher : Springer
Page : 103 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2014-10-08
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9783319098104

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The Mathematics of Elections and Voting by W.D. Wallis Pdf

This title takes an in-depth look at the mathematics in the context of voting and electoral systems, with focus on simple ballots, complex elections, fairness, approval voting, ties, fair and unfair voting, and manipulation techniques. The exposition opens with a sketch of the mathematics behind the various methods used in conducting elections. The reader is lead to a comprehensive picture of the theoretical background of mathematics and elections through an analysis of Condorcet’s Principle and Arrow’s Theorem of conditions in electoral fairness. Further detailed discussion of various related topics include: methods of manipulating the outcome of an election, amendments, and voting on small committees. In recent years, electoral theory has been introduced into lower-level mathematics courses, as a way to illustrate the role of mathematics in our everyday life. Few books have studied voting and elections from a more formal mathematical viewpoint. This text will be useful to those who teach lower level courses or special topics courses and aims to inspire students to understand the more advanced mathematics of the topic. The exercises in this text are ideal for upper undergraduate and early graduate students, as well as those with a keen interest in the mathematics behind voting and elections.

Author : William C. Kimberling
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 20 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 1992
Category : Electoral college
ISBN : PURD:32754076105075

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The Electoral College by William C. Kimberling Pdf

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 16 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 1987
Category : Campaign funds
ISBN : IND:30000068299860

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Public funding of presidential elections by Anonim Pdf

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Computer Science and Telecommunications Board,Policy and Global Affairs,Committee on Science, Technology, and Law,Committee on the Future of Voting: Accessible, Reliable, Verifiable Technology
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 181 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2018-09-30
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780309476478

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Securing the Vote by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Computer Science and Telecommunications Board,Policy and Global Affairs,Committee on Science, Technology, and Law,Committee on the Future of Voting: Accessible, Reliable, Verifiable Technology Pdf

During the 2016 presidential election, America's election infrastructure was targeted by actors sponsored by the Russian government. Securing the Vote: Protecting American Democracy examines the challenges arising out of the 2016 federal election, assesses current technology and standards for voting, and recommends steps that the federal government, state and local governments, election administrators, and vendors of voting technology should take to improve the security of election infrastructure. In doing so, the report provides a vision of voting that is more secure, accessible, reliable, and verifiable.

Author : S. I. Keethaponcalan
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 205 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2022-07-21
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781000613490

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Electoral Politics in Sri Lanka by S. I. Keethaponcalan Pdf

This volume examines and analyses electoral politics in Sri Lanka through the theoretical framework of manipulation. The following questions guided the study: how do political actors manipulate elections, and what are the salient features of electoral politics in Sri Lanka? Primary and secondary data formed the basis of the analysis, examining eight presidential elections. The research findings indicated that Sri Lankan governments, political parties and political leaders have taken advantage of six types of electoral manipulation, including constitutional tinkering, field fixing, time fixing, vote suppression, process manipulation and resource manipulation. Through a close examination of eight presidential elections, research carried out for the volume found that elections are often associated with violence; presidential elections are mainly a majoritarian affair in which minority communities play only a marginal role; there is a significant gender imbalance, as women’s participation in the electoral process is very limited; despite the presence of a large number of candidates contesting the election, it always remains a two-way race; and amid extensive manipulation and other problems, voter participation tends to be high. This volume will be a valuable resource for students, academics and researchers who focus on democracy, good governance, electoral studies and South Asian politics and history, and will enhance the conceptual foundation of democracy advocates and activists.

Author : Juan Medina Ariza,Reka Solymosi
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 451 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2023-04-27
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781000850789

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Crime Mapping and Spatial Data Analysis using R by Juan Medina Ariza,Reka Solymosi Pdf

Crime mapping and analysis sit at the intersection of geocomputation, data visualisation and cartography, spatial statistics, environmental criminology, and crime analysis. This book brings together relevant knowledge from these fields into a practical, hands-on guide, providing a useful introduction and reference material for topics in crime mapping, the geography of crime, environmental criminology, and crime analysis. It can be used by students, practitioners, and academics alike, whether to develop a university course, to support further training and development, or to hone skills in self-teaching R and crime mapping and spatial data analysis. It is not an advanced statistics textbook, but rather an applied guide and later useful reference books, intended to be read and for readers to practice the learnings from each chapter in sequence. In the first part of this volume we introduce key concepts for geographic analysis and representation and provide the reader with the foundations needed to visualise spatial crime data. We then introduce a series of tools to study spatial homogeneity and dependence. A key focus in this section is how to visualise and detect local clusters of crime and repeat victimisation. The final chapters introduce the use of basic spatial models, which account for the distribution of crime across space. In terms of spatial data analysis the focus of the book is on spatial point pattern analysis and lattice or area data analysis.

Author : Rafael A. Irizarry
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 794 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2019-11-20
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781000708035

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Introduction to Data Science by Rafael A. Irizarry Pdf

Introduction to Data Science: Data Analysis and Prediction Algorithms with R introduces concepts and skills that can help you tackle real-world data analysis challenges. It covers concepts from probability, statistical inference, linear regression, and machine learning. It also helps you develop skills such as R programming, data wrangling, data visualization, predictive algorithm building, file organization with UNIX/Linux shell, version control with Git and GitHub, and reproducible document preparation. This book is a textbook for a first course in data science. No previous knowledge of R is necessary, although some experience with programming may be helpful. The book is divided into six parts: R, data visualization, statistics with R, data wrangling, machine learning, and productivity tools. Each part has several chapters meant to be presented as one lecture. The author uses motivating case studies that realistically mimic a data scientist’s experience. He starts by asking specific questions and answers these through data analysis so concepts are learned as a means to answering the questions. Examples of the case studies included are: US murder rates by state, self-reported student heights, trends in world health and economics, the impact of vaccines on infectious disease rates, the financial crisis of 2007-2008, election forecasting, building a baseball team, image processing of hand-written digits, and movie recommendation systems. The statistical concepts used to answer the case study questions are only briefly introduced, so complementing with a probability and statistics textbook is highly recommended for in-depth understanding of these concepts. If you read and understand the chapters and complete the exercises, you will be prepared to learn the more advanced concepts and skills needed to become an expert.

Author : Ryan Kennedy,Philip D. Waggoner
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 198 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2021-02-23
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781000353853

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Introduction to R for Social Scientists by Ryan Kennedy,Philip D. Waggoner Pdf

Introduction to R for Social Scientists: A Tidy Programming Approach introduces the Tidy approach to programming in R for social science research to help quantitative researchers develop a modern technical toolbox. The Tidy approach is built around consistent syntax, common grammar, and stacked code, which contribute to clear, efficient programming. The authors include hundreds of lines of code to demonstrate a suite of techniques for developing and debugging an efficient social science research workflow. To deepen the dedication to teaching Tidy best practices for conducting social science research in R, the authors include numerous examples using real world data including the American National Election Study and the World Indicators Data. While no prior experience in R is assumed, readers are expected to be acquainted with common social science research designs and terminology. Whether used as a reference manual or read from cover to cover, readers will be equipped with a deeper understanding of R and the Tidyverse, as well as a framework for how best to leverage these powerful tools to write tidy, efficient code for solving problems. To this end, the authors provide many suggestions for additional readings and tools to build on the concepts covered. They use all covered techniques in their own work as scholars and practitioners.

Author : Barry Schouten,Jan van den Brakel,Bart Buelens,Deirdre Giesen,Annemieke Luiten,Vivian Meertens
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 283 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2021-09-27
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780429865855

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Mixed-Mode Official Surveys by Barry Schouten,Jan van den Brakel,Bart Buelens,Deirdre Giesen,Annemieke Luiten,Vivian Meertens Pdf

Mixed-mode surveys have become a standard at many statistical institutes. However, the introduction of multiple modes in one design goes with challenges to both methodology and logistics. Mode-specific representation and measurement differences become explicit and demand for solutions in data collection design, questionnaire design, and estimation. This is especially true when surveys are repeated and are input to long time series of official statistics. So how can statistical institutes deal with such changes? What are the origins of mode-specific error? And how can they be dealt with? In this book, the authors provide answers to these questions, and much more. Features Concise introduction to all the key elements of mixed-mode survey design and analysis Realistic official statistics examples from three general population surveys Suitable for survey managers and survey statisticians alike An overview of mode-specific representation and measurement errors and how to avoid, reduce and adjust them.

Author : Holmes Finch
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 45,5 Mb
Release : 2022-03-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781000548198

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Applied Regularization Methods for the Social Sciences by Holmes Finch Pdf

Researchers in the social sciences are faced with complex data sets in which they have relatively small samples and many variables (high dimensional data). Unlike the various technical guides currently on the market, Applied Regularization Methods for the Social Sciences provides and overview of a variety of models alongside clear examples of hands-on application. Each chapter in this book covers a specific application of regularization techniques with a user-friendly technical description, followed by examples that provide a thorough demonstration of the methods in action. Key Features: Description of regularization methods in a user friendly and easy to read manner Inclusion of regularization-based approaches for a variety of statistical analyses commonly used in the social sciences, including both univariate and multivariate models Fully developed extended examples using multiple software packages, including R, SAS, and SPSS Website containing all datasets and software scripts used in the examples Inclusion of both frequentist and Bayesian regularization approaches Application exercises for each chapter that instructors could use in class, and independent researchers could use to practice what they have learned from the book