Understanding Intelligence Failure

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Understanding Intelligence Failure

James J. Wirtz
Understanding Intelligence Failure Book PDF

Author : James J. Wirtz
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 271 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2016-11-10
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781317375722

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Understanding Intelligence Failure by James J. Wirtz Pdf

This collection, comprising key works by James J. Wirtz, explains how different threat perceptions can lead to strategic surprise attack, intelligence failure and the failure of deterrence. This volume adopts a strategist’s view of the issue of surprise and intelligence failure by placing these phenomena in the context of conflict between strong and weak actors in world affairs. A two-level theory explains the incentives and perceptions of both parties when significant imbalances of military power exist between potential combatants, and how this situation sets the stage for strategic surprise and intelligence failure to occur. The volume illustrates this theory by applying it to the Kargil Crisis, attacks launched by non-state actors, and by offering a comparison of Pearl Harbor and the September 11, 2001 attacks. It explores the phenomenon of deterrence failure; specifically, how weaker parties in an enduring or nascent conflict come to believe that deterrent threats posed by militarily stronger antagonists will be undermined by various constraints, increasing the attractiveness of utilising surprise attack to achieve their objectives. This work also offers strategies that could mitigate the occurrence of intelligence failure, strategic surprise and the failure of deterrence. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, security studies and IR in general.

Intelligence and Surprise Attack

Erik J. Dahl
Intelligence and Surprise Attack Book PDF

Author : Erik J. Dahl
Publisher : Georgetown University Press
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2013-07-19
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781589019980

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Intelligence and Surprise Attack by Erik J. Dahl Pdf

How can the United States avoid a future surprise attack on the scale of 9/11 or Pearl Harbor, in an era when such devastating attacks can come not only from nation states, but also from terrorist groups or cyber enemies? Intelligence and Surprise Attack examines why surprise attacks often succeed even though, in most cases, warnings had been available beforehand. Erik J. Dahl challenges the conventional wisdom about intelligence failure, which holds that attacks succeed because important warnings get lost amid noise or because intelligence officials lack the imagination and collaboration to “connect the dots” of available information. Comparing cases of intelligence failure with intelligence success, Dahl finds that the key to success is not more imagination or better analysis, but better acquisition of precise, tactical-level intelligence combined with the presence of decision makers who are willing to listen to and act on the warnings they receive from their intelligence staff. The book offers a new understanding of classic cases of conventional and terrorist attacks such as Pearl Harbor, the Battle of Midway, and the bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The book also presents a comprehensive analysis of the intelligence picture before the 9/11 attacks, making use of new information available since the publication of the 9/11 Commission Report and challenging some of that report’s findings.

Understanding Intelligence in the Twenty-First Century

Peter Jackson,L.V. Scott
Understanding Intelligence in the Twenty First Century Book PDF

Author : Peter Jackson,L.V. Scott
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 296 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2004-07-01
Category : History
ISBN : 9781135769734

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Understanding Intelligence in the Twenty-First Century by Peter Jackson,L.V. Scott Pdf

Intelligence has never been more important in world politics than it is now at the opening of the twenty-first century. The terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001, along with the politics and diplomacy of the Second Gulf War, have brought intelligence issues to the forefront of both official and popular discourse on security and international affairs. The need for better understanding of both the nature of the intelligence process and its importance to national and international security has never been more apparent. The aim of this collection is to enhance our understanding of the subject by drawing on a range of perspectives, from academic experts to journalists to former members of the British and American intelligence communities.

Constructing Cassandra

Milo Jones,Philippe Silberzahn
Constructing Cassandra Book PDF

Author : Milo Jones,Philippe Silberzahn
Publisher : Stanford University Press
Page : 392 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2013-08-21
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780804787154

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Constructing Cassandra by Milo Jones,Philippe Silberzahn Pdf

Constructing Cassandra analyzes the intelligence failures at the CIA that resulted in four key strategic surprises experienced by the US: the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, the Iranian revolution of 1978, the collapse of the USSR in 1991, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks—surprises still play out today in U.S. policy. Although there has been no shortage of studies exploring how intelligence failures can happen, none of them have been able to provide a unified understanding of the phenomenon. To correct that omission, this book brings culture and identity to the foreground to present a unified model of strategic surprise; one that focuses on the internal make-up the CIA, and takes seriously those Cassandras who offered warnings, but were ignored. This systematic exploration of the sources of the CIA's intelligence failures points to ways to prevent future strategic surprises.

Why Intelligence Fails

Robert Jervis
Why Intelligence Fails Book PDF

Author : Robert Jervis
Publisher : Cornell University Press
Page : 248 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2010-12-15
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780801457616

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Why Intelligence Fails by Robert Jervis Pdf

The U.S. government spends enormous resources each year on the gathering and analysis of intelligence, yet the history of American foreign policy is littered with missteps and misunderstandings that have resulted from intelligence failures. In Why Intelligence Fails, Robert Jervis examines the politics and psychology of two of the more spectacular intelligence failures in recent memory: the mistaken belief that the regime of the Shah in Iran was secure and stable in 1978, and the claim that Iraq had active WMD programs in 2002. The Iran case is based on a recently declassified report Jervis was commissioned to undertake by CIA thirty years ago and includes memoranda written by CIA officials in response to Jervis's findings. The Iraq case, also grounded in a review of the intelligence community's performance, is based on close readings of both classified and declassified documents, though Jervis's conclusions are entirely supported by evidence that has been declassified. In both cases, Jervis finds not only that intelligence was badly flawed but also that later explanations—analysts were bowing to political pressure and telling the White House what it wanted to hear or were willfully blind—were also incorrect. Proponents of these explanations claimed that initial errors were compounded by groupthink, lack of coordination within the government, and failure to share information. Policy prescriptions, including the recent establishment of a Director of National Intelligence, were supposed to remedy the situation. In Jervis's estimation, neither the explanations nor the prescriptions are adequate. The inferences that intelligence drew were actually quite plausible given the information available. Errors arose, he concludes, from insufficient attention to the ways in which information should be gathered and interpreted, a lack of self-awareness about the factors that led to the judgments, and an organizational culture that failed to probe for weaknesses and explore alternatives. Evaluating the inherent tensions between the methods and aims of intelligence personnel and policymakers from a unique insider's perspective, Jervis forcefully criticizes recent proposals for improving the performance of the intelligence community and discusses ways in which future analysis can be improved.

Intelligence Success and Failure

Uri Bar-Joseph,Rose McDermott
Intelligence Success and Failure Book PDF

Author : Uri Bar-Joseph,Rose McDermott
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 256 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2017-03-03
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780190676995

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Intelligence Success and Failure by Uri Bar-Joseph,Rose McDermott Pdf

The study of strategic surprise has long concentrated on important failures that resulted in catastrophes such as Pearl Harbor and the September 11th attacks, and the majority of previously published research in the field determines that such large-scale military failures often stem from defective information-processing systems. Intelligence Success and Failure challenges this common assertion that catastrophic surprise attacks are the unmistakable products of warning failure alone. Further, Uri Bar-Joseph and Rose McDermott approach this topic uniquely by highlighting the successful cases of strategic surprise, as well as the failures, from a psychological perspective. This book delineates the critical role of individual psychopathologies in precipitating failure by investigating important historical cases. Bar-Joseph and McDermott use six particular military attacks as examples for their analysis, including: "Barbarossa," the June 1941 German invasion of the USSR (failure); the fall-winter 1941 battle for Moscow (success); the Arab attack on Israel on Yom Kippur 1973 (failure); and the second Egyptian offensive in the war six days later (success). From these specific cases and others, they analyze the psychological mechanisms through which leaders assess their own fatal mistakes and use the intelligence available to them. Their research examines the factors that contribute to failure and success in responding to strategic surprise and identify the learning process that central decision makers use to facilitate subsequent successes. Intelligence Success and Failure presents a new theory in the study of strategic surprise that claims the key explanation for warning failure is not unintentional action, but rather, motivated biases in key intelligence and central leaders that null any sense of doubt prior to surprise attacks.

Breakdown

Bill Gertz
Breakdown Book PDF

Author : Bill Gertz
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
Page : 256 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2012-03-28
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781596987104

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Breakdown by Bill Gertz Pdf

New York Times bestselling author Bill Gertz uses his unparalleled access to America's intelligence system to show how this system completely broke down in the years, months, and days leading up to the deadly terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.

Intelligence Success and Failure

Uri Bar-Joseph,Rose McDermott
Intelligence Success and Failure Book PDF

Author : Uri Bar-Joseph,Rose McDermott
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 256 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2017-03-03
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780199341757

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Intelligence Success and Failure by Uri Bar-Joseph,Rose McDermott Pdf

The study of strategic surprise has long concentrated on important failures that resulted in catastrophes such as Pearl Harbor and the September 11th attacks, and the majority of previously published research in the field determines that such large-scale military failures often stem from defective information-processing systems. Intelligence Success and Failure challenges this common assertion that catastrophic surprise attacks are the unmistakable products of warning failure alone. Further, Uri Bar-Joseph and Rose McDermott approach this topic uniquely by highlighting the successful cases of strategic surprise, as well as the failures, from a psychological perspective. This book delineates the critical role of individual psychopathologies in precipitating failure by investigating important historical cases. Bar-Joseph and McDermott use six particular military attacks as examples for their analysis, including: "Barbarossa," the June 1941 German invasion of the USSR (failure); the fall-winter 1941 battle for Moscow (success); the Arab attack on Israel on Yom Kippur 1973 (failure); and the second Egyptian offensive in the war six days later (success). From these specific cases and others, they analyze the psychological mechanisms through which leaders assess their own fatal mistakes and use the intelligence available to them. Their research examines the factors that contribute to failure and success in responding to strategic surprise and identify the learning process that central decision makers use to facilitate subsequent successes. Intelligence Success and Failure presents a new theory in the study of strategic surprise that claims the key explanation for warning failure is not unintentional action, but rather, motivated biases in key intelligence and central leaders that null any sense of doubt prior to surprise attacks.

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Richards J Heuer
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis Book PDF

Author : Richards J Heuer
Publisher : Pickle Partners Publishing
Page : 344 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2020-03-05
Category : History
ISBN : 9781839743054

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Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richards J Heuer Pdf

In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.

We Never Expected That

Avner Barnea
We Never Expected That Book PDF

Author : Avner Barnea
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
Page : 233 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2021-08-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781793619891

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We Never Expected That by Avner Barnea Pdf

The basic premise of this book is that in both fields, national and business, intelligence gathered about adversaries or competitors regarding changes in the external environment support the decision-making process. In both fields the subject has been studied within its own framework without comparative analysis or mutual learning.

The Tet Offensive

James J. Wirtz
The Tet Offensive Book PDF

Author : James J. Wirtz
Publisher : Cornell University Press
Page : 305 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2013-07-12
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781501713354

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The Tet Offensive by James J. Wirtz Pdf

In this account of one of the worst intelligence failures in American history, James J. Wirtz explains why U.S. forces were surprised by the North Vietnamese Tet Offensive in 1968. Wirtz reconstructs the turning point of the Vietnam War in unprecedented detail. Drawing upon Vietcong and recently declassified U.S. sources, he is able to trace the strategy and unfolding of the Tet campaign as well as the U.S. response.

Fool Me Twice: Intelligence Failure and Mass Casualty Terrorism

Thomas Copeland
Fool Me Twice Intelligence Failure and Mass Casualty Terrorism Book PDF

Author : Thomas Copeland
Publisher : BRILL
Page : 318 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2007-07-30
Category : Law
ISBN : 9789047440291

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Fool Me Twice: Intelligence Failure and Mass Casualty Terrorism by Thomas Copeland Pdf

This study evaluates whether surprise and intelligence failure leading to mass casualty terrorism are inevitable. It explores the extent to which four factors – failures of public policy leadership, analytical challenges, organizational obstacles, and the inherent problems of warning information – contribute to intelligence failure. The study applies existing theories of surprise and intelligence failure to case studies of five mass casualty terrorism incidents: World Trade Center 1993; Oklahoma City 1995; Khobar Towers 1996; East African Embassies 1998; and September 11, 2001. A structured, focused comparison of the cases is made using a set of thirteen probing questions based on the factors above. The study concludes that while all four factors were influential, failures of public policy leadership contributed directly to surprise. Psychological bias and poor threat assessments prohibited policy makers from anticipating or preventing attacks. Policy makers mistakenly continued to use a law enforcement approach to handling terrorism, and failed to provide adequate funding, guidance, and oversight of the intelligence community. The study has implications for intelligence reform, information sharing, congressional oversight, and society’s expectations about the degree to which the intelligence community can predict or prevent surprise attacks.

The CIA and the Culture of Failure

John M. Diamond
The CIA and the Culture of Failure Book PDF

Author : John M. Diamond
Publisher : Stanford University Press
Page : 552 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2008
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780804756013

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The CIA and the Culture of Failure by John M. Diamond Pdf

The CIA and the Culture of Failure follows the CIA through a series of crises from the Soviet collapse to the war in Iraq and explains the political pressures that helped lead to the greatest failures in U.S. intelligence history.

Problem of Secret Intelligence

Kjetil Anders Hatlebrekke
Problem of Secret Intelligence Book PDF

Author : Kjetil Anders Hatlebrekke
Publisher : Edinburgh University Press
Page : 272 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2019-05-03
Category : History
ISBN : 9780748691845

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Problem of Secret Intelligence by Kjetil Anders Hatlebrekke Pdf

What is intelligence - why is it so hard to define, and why is there no systematic theory of intelligence? Kjetil Anders Hatlebrekke creates a new, systematic model of intelligence analysis, arguing that good intelligence is based on understanding the threats that appear beyond our experience, and are therefore the most dangerous to society.

Understanding Police Intelligence Work

Adrian James
Understanding Police Intelligence Work Book PDF

Author : Adrian James
Publisher : Policy Press
Page : 188 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2016-04-27
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781447326403

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Understanding Police Intelligence Work by Adrian James Pdf

Procedural and moral shortcomings in both child abuse cases and the long-term deployment of undercover police officers have raised questions about the effectiveness and efficacy of intelligence work, and yet intelligence work plays an ever growing role in policing. Part of a new series on evidence-based policing, this book is the first to offer a comprehensive, fully up-to-date account of how police can--and do--use intelligence, assessing the threats and opportunities presented by new digital technology, like the widespread use of social media and the emergence of "big data," and applying both a practical and an ethical lens to police intelligence activities.