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Wage Growth and Inflation in Europe: A Puzzle? by Vizhdan Boranova,Raju Huidrom,Sylwia Nowak,Petia Topalova,Mr.Volodymyr Tulin,Richard Varghese Pdf
Wages have been rising faster than productivity in many European countries for the past few years, yet signs of underlying consumer price pressures remain limited. To shed light on this puzzle, this paper examines the historical link between wage growth and inflation in Europe and factors that influence the strength of the passthrough from labor costs to prices. Historically, wage growth has led to higher inflation, but the impact has weakened since 2009. Empirical analysis suggests that the passthrough from wage growth to inflation is significantly lower in periods of subdued inflation and inflation expectations, greater competitive pressures, and robust corporate profitability. Thus the recent pickup in wage growth is likely to have a more muted impact on inflation than in the past.
European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers by Yuanyan Sophia Zhang Pdf
Wage rises have remained stubbornly low in advanced Europe in recent years, but, at the same time, newer EU members are experiencing rapid wage acceleration. This paper investigates the drivers of this wage divergence. Econometric analysis using error correction models suggests that wage growth responds more quickly to changes in unemployment in the newer EU members than in advanced Europe, where wages are more closely related to inflation and inflation expectations in the short run, implying greater inertia in nominal wage rises in advanced Europe. In the years after the global crisis, this inertia contributed to the build up of a real wage overhang relative to sharply slowing labor productivity, which subsequently dragged on nominal wage rises even as unemployment began to decline. Spillovers of subdued wage growth between euro area countries also weighed on wage rises in advanced Europe.
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019, Europe by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Pdf
Economic activity in Europe has slowed on the back of weakness in trade and manufacturing. For most of the region, the slowdown remains externally driven. However, some signs of softer domestic demand have started to appear, especially in investment. Services and domestic consumption have been buoyant so far, but their resilience is tightly linked to labor market conditions, which, despite some easing, remain robust. Expansionary fiscal policy in many countries, and looser financial conditions, have also supported domestic demand. On balance, Europe’ s growth is projected to decline. A modest recovery is forecast for 2020 as global trade is expected to pick up and some economies recover from past stresses. This projection, broadly unchanged from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook, masks significant differences between advanced and emerging Europe. Growth in advanced Europe has been revised down, while growth in emerging Europe has been revised up. Amid high uncertainty, risks remain to the downside, with a no-deal Brexit the key risk in the near term. An intensification of trade tensions and related uncertainty could also dampen investment. More broadly, the weakness in trade and manufacturing could spread to other sectors—notably services—faster and to a greater extent than currently envisaged. Other risks stem from abrupt declines in risk appetite, financial vulnerabilities, the re-emergence of deflationary pressures in advanced economies, and geopolitics.
Wage and Inflation Dynamics in Denmark by Raju Huidrom Pdf
Nominal wage growth in Denmark has so far been modest and outpaced by high inflation, putting real wage growth in negative territory. Amid still-tight labor markets, this has raised concerns about wage pressures going forward and the eventual impact on inflation. The analysis suggests that wage formation in Denmark has historically been partly backward-looking, and economic slack also has played a role. Given these, high inflation realized thus far and the tightness in the labor market implies that wage pressures are expected to remain elevated in the near term. Some of these wage pressures, in turn, are expected to be passed on to core inflation, sustaining high inflation. Thus, determined policies to fight inflation are important.
A European Minimum Wage: Implications for Poverty and Macroeconomic Imbalances by Ms.Enrica Detragiache,Mr.Christian H Ebeke,La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul,Koralai Kirabaeva,Mr.Davide Malacrino,Florian Misch,Hyun Woo Park,Ms.Yu Shi Pdf
A hypothetical European Minimum Wage (MW) set at 60 percent of each country’s median wage would reduce in-work poverty but have limited effects on overall poverty, as many poor households do not earn a wage near MW and higher unemployment, higher prices, and a loss of social insurance benefits may erode direct benefits. Turning to competitiveness, since the MW increase to reach the European standard would be larger in euro area countries with excessive external surpluses, the associated real appreciation should help curb existing imbalances. However, a few countries with already weak external positions would experience an undesirable real appreciation.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 45 pages File Size : 42,7 Mb Release : 2024-03-04 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9798400269462
Romania by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Pdf
Romania has weathered the economic shocks from the pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the resulting surges in energy and food prices relatively well. Growth has slowed down but is expected to remain fairly robust in 2023 and 2024, supported by investment. Inflation remains notably above target but has been declining steadily through 2023. Fiscal deficits remain too large, although the authorities adopted a fiscal package to limit spending and raise additional revenues.
Inflation Expectations by Peter J. N. Sinclair Pdf
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author : Robert James Gordon Publisher : Cambridge University Press Page : 520 pages File Size : 44,8 Mb Release : 2004 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 052153142X
Productivity Puzzles Across Europe by Philippe Askenazy,Lutz Bellmann,Alex Bryson,Eva Moreno Galbis Pdf
The 2008 financial crisis put an end to an era of sustained economic growth in Europe. The size of the shock differed across European countries and affected economies in different ways. Yet despite this heterogeneity, most European countries suffered a prolonged period of economic slowdown which raised concerns about the risk of a secular stagnation in Europe. This book focuses on labour productivity in Europe, one of the main drivers of growth and prosperity. Although productivity trends became the focus of policy interest in the immediate aftermath of the recession in the UK, 'productivity puzzles' received much less attention in the rest of Europe. These 'puzzles', which are apparent to greater or lesser extents in most European economies, centre on the marked decline in labour productivity growth which occurred with the on-set of recession. They are puzzles because, in neo-classical economics, firms respond to demand shocks by laying off workers, thus maintaining labour productivity and limiting growth in unit labour costs. Yet this didn't happen in this recession - at least, not to the same extent as in previous recessions, except in Spain. This book brings together contributions from leading European economists who analyse production models and macroeconomic policies, with specific focus on European countries that represent around 60% of the EU GDP. Chapters on France, Germany, the UK, and Spain provide new evidences at the firm/workplace level, and stress the role of transitory labour market mechanisms
The Monetary Economics of Europe by Christopher Johnson,Stefan Collignon Pdf
Based on research commissioned by the European Parliament, this volume allows the economists contributing to offer their own explanations for the collapse of the European Monetary System, with the use of economic models.
Thomas S. Coleman,Bryan J. Oliver,Laurence B. Siegel
Author : Thomas S. Coleman,Bryan J. Oliver,Laurence B. Siegel Publisher : CFA Institute Research Foundation Page : 64 pages File Size : 44,8 Mb Release : 2021-11-29 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781952927232
Puzzles of Inflation, Money, and Debt: Applying the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level by Thomas S. Coleman,Bryan J. Oliver,Laurence B. Siegel Pdf
The fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) provides an update and revision of monetary theory to address puzzles raised by the failure of both the new Keynesian theory (commonly used by central bankers) and neoclassical monetarism (in particular, the quantity theory of money as interpreted by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz)—puzzles such as the low inflation that followed the sustained expansionary monetary policies post-2008. We aim to summarize and explain the FTPL as developed by Eric Leeper, John Cochrane, and others. The FTPL builds on neoclassical monetarism by observing that government liabilities—bonds, notes, bills, and currency—derive their value from the assets that back these liabilities. These assets are chiefly the present value of future tax revenues, minus government spending other than that part of spending used to service the liabilities themselves. This net “profit” of the government is called the primary surplus. This primary surplus can be expressed in real terms (a quantity of goods and services, rather than a money amount). The total real value of the bonds is thus the total real value of the assets backing the bonds: the present value of all future real primary surpluses (which we shorten to PVFS, present value of future surpluses). In a very important sense, the FTPL harkens back to commodity-based theories of money, except now the “commodity” is the real value of future surpluses earned by the government. We can then solve for the price level. It is simply the nominal value of the bonds (the face value or number of bonds issued) divided by the real value of the bonds (the PVFS). If the nominal value of the bonds is held constant and the underlying asset (PVFS) becomes less valuable, prices go up. If the PVFS becomes more valuable, prices go down. We thus calculate the value of “money” (including government liabilities of all maturities) the way one would calculate the value of any security: through discounted cash flow analysis. Note that this approach is consistent with the QTM because, if money is defined in the traditional way as currency and demand deposits and we now hold the PVFS (the backing of the money) constant, then the price level is proportional to the amount of money in circulation. The FTPL is a more complete theory, however, because (1) it incorporates all government liabilities, not traditional money alone, and (2) because it is forward-looking and dynamic rather than considering only conditions in the present.
Essays on the Great Depression by Ben S. Bernanke Pdf
From the Nobel Prize–winning economist and former chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, a landmark book that provides vital lessons for understanding financial crises and their sometimes-catastrophic economic effects As chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve during the Global Financial Crisis, Ben Bernanke helped avert a greater financial disaster than the Great Depression. And he did so by drawing directly on what he had learned from years of studying the causes of the economic catastrophe of the 1930s—work for which he was later awarded the Nobel Prize. Essays on the Great Depression brings together Bernanke’s influential work on the origins and economic lessons of the Depression, and this new edition also includes his Nobel Prize lecture.
The 2018/19 edition analyses the gender pay gap. The report focuses on two main challenges: how to find the most useful means for measurement, and how to break down the gender pay gap in ways that best inform policy-makers and social partners of the factors that underlie it. The report also includes a review of key policy issues regarding wages and the reduction of gender pay gaps in different national circumstances. “The Global Wage Report is an indispensable for economists, trade unionists, employers and the interested public.” − Hansjörg Herr, Berlin School of Economics and Law.
