What Factors Appear To Drive Private Capital Flows To Developing Countries
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What Factors Appear to Drive Private Capital Flows to Developing Countries? by Dipak Das Gupta,Dilip Ratha Pdf
Private portfolio flows to a country tend to rise in response to an increase in the current account deficit, a rise in foreign direct investment flows, higher per capita income, and growth performance. The most important determinant of official lending to a developing country seems to be the external current account balance or a change in international reserves in the country.
Revisiting the Determinants of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets--A Survey of the Evolving Literature by Swarnali Ahmed Hannan Pdf
This paper documents the evolution of gross and net capital flows to emerging market economies and surveys the large literature on the potential drivers. While the capital flow landscape has been shaped by the evolution of both global and country-specific factors, the relative importance of these factors has varied over time and differs depending on the type of capital flows. The findings from the survey of the literature thus underscores the importance of policies in both source and recipient countries in shaping capital flows.
Private Capital Flows to Developing Countries by Anonim Pdf
This book analyzes the process of international financial integration and the structural forces driving private capital to developing countries. Against this background, it details the potential benefits of integration and the implications of fast-moving global capital flows for emerging economics. Examining the experience of countries that have attracted substantial private capital flows, the book provides invaluable guidance as to what works and what doesn't during the transition to financial integration. It will be of compelling interest to policymakers and also to international investors and bankers, financial analysts, and researchers.
Author : World Bank Publisher : Washington, D.C. : World Bank Page : 10 pages File Size : 46,5 Mb Release : 1997 Category : Capital movements ISBN : 0821339265
Private Capital Flows, Financial Development, and Economic Growth in Developing Countries [electronic Resource] by Bailliu, Jeannine N,Bank of Canada Pdf
Mr.Thierry Tressel,Dennis B. S. Reinhardt,Mr.Luca Antonio Ricci
Author : Mr.Thierry Tressel,Dennis B. S. Reinhardt,Mr.Luca Antonio Ricci Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 46 pages File Size : 50,9 Mb Release : 2010-10-01 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781455209354
International Capital Flows and Development by Mr.Thierry Tressel,Dennis B. S. Reinhardt,Mr.Luca Antonio Ricci Pdf
Does capital flow from rich to poor countries? We revisit the Lucas paradox and explore the role of capital account restrictions in shaping capital flows at various stages of economic development. We find that, when accounting for the degree of capital account openness, the prediction of the neoclassical theory is confirmed: less developed countries tend to experience net capital inflows and more developed countries tend to experience net capital outflows, conditional of various countries’ characteristics. The findings are driven by foreign direct investment, portfolio equity investment, and to some extent by loans to the private sector.
Private Capital Flows and Development by Gerald K. Helleiner Pdf
This paper considers the new forms and roles of private capital flows to developing countries in the 1990s and appropriate national and international policy responses to the problems and possibilities they create. Section 2 describes the growth of these flows in the 1990s, their role in development and some of their effects in recipient countries. Section 3 considers alternate capital account policies for developing countries. In section 4 the possibility of improved international arrangements is considered. Section 5 contains recommendations from the previous analysis.
Sustainability of Private Capital Flows to Developing Countries - is a Generalized Reversal Likely? by Leonardo Hernández,Heinz Rudolph Pdf
Since 1989, private capital flows to a select group of developing countries have increased sharply, but developments in 1994 have caused concern about the sustainability of those flows. Several highly indebted developing countries that are implementing reform are concerned that a generalized reversal - similar to episodes of capital flight in the early 1980s - might disrupt their economies and threaten economic reform. Because the surge in private capital flows coincided with a period of low international interest rates and intensive policy reform in developing countries, debate has been active about whether the surge is driven mainly by domestic (pull) or external (push) factors. Under the pull hypothesis, successful domestic policies are the key to ensuring sustainable capital inflows; under the push hypothesis, an increase in international interest rates would cause a reversal of those flows (back to the industrial world). Using a partial adjustment model in which both domestic and external variables are defined, the authors explain why private capital flows to some developing countries but not to others (using panel data for 1986-93 for 22 countries). They argue that a generalized reversal is unlikely in countries that maintain a fundamentally sound macroeconomic environment. In fact, their empirical results show that domestic factors such as domestic savings and investment ratios significantly affected the recent surge in capital inflows. Further, they suggest that countries that have not received significant foreign capital - including countries in sub-Saharan Africa - could begin to if they implemented structural reforms that allow them to export, save, and invest at higher rates. Reducing their foreign debt (which might call for a continuation of recent debt reduction operations) could also help attract foreign private investors.
Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets by Mr.Eugenio Cerutti,Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Damien Puy Pdf
This paper analyzes the behavior of gross capital inflows across 34 emerging markets (EMs). We first confirm that aggregate inflows to EMs co-move considerably. We then report three findings: (i) the aggregate co-movement conceals significant heterogeneity across asset types as only bank-related and portfolio bond and equity inflows do co-move; (ii) while global push factors in advanced economies mostly explain the common dynamics, their relative importance varies by type of flow; and (iii) the sensitivity to common dynamics varies significantly across borrower countries, with market structure characteristics (especially the composition of the foreign investor base and the level of liquidity) rather than borrower country’s institutional fundamentals strongly affecting sensitivities. Countries relying more on international funds and global banks are found to be more sensitive to push factors. Our findings suggest that EMs need to closely monitor their lenders and investors to assess their inflow exposures to global push factors.
Capital Flows to Central and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union by Stijn Claessens,Daniel Oks,Rossana Polastri Pdf
September 1998 Foreign direct investment and, more recently, short-term debt and portfolio flows have become important parts of private capital flows to Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Private flows have increased in response to reform efforts, the buildup of reserves, and prospective membership in the European Union. Private capital flows to Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union have taken off in recent years. Foreign direct investment was the most important such flow from 1991-97, but since 1993 short-term debt and portfolio flows have also been important. The increase in these potentially more volatile short-term flows raises some questions about sustainability and vulnerability. Perhaps more than in other developing countries, reform efforts appear to be the most important determinant of private flows to the region. Private flows also have responded positively to the buildup of reserves (a proxy for improvements in perceived creditworthiness) and to prospective membership in the European Union (reflecting greater economic integration with the West and a greater commitment to reform). Official flows have been associated with the financing of fiscal deficits and appear to have led, rather than followed, countries' reform efforts. This paper-a joint product of the Economic Policy Division, Poverty Reducation and Economic Management Network; and the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region-was prepared for the National Bureau for Economic Research study, Capital Flows to Emerging Markets, organized by Sebastian Edwards. The authors may be contacted at [email protected] or [email protected].
Joining the Club? Procyclicality of Private Capital Inflows in Low Income Developing Countries by Juliana Dutra Araujo,Mr.Antonio David,Carlos van Hombeeck,Mr.Chris Papageorgiou Pdf
Using a newly developed dataset this paper examines the cyclicality of private capital inflows to low-income developing countries (LIDCs) over the period 1990-2012. The empirical analysis shows that capital inflows to LIDCs are procyclical, yet considerably less procyclical than flows to more advanced economies. The analysis also suggests that flows to LIDCs are more persistent than flows to emerging markets (EMs). There is also evidence that changes in risk aversion are a significant correlate of private capital inflows with the expected sign, but LIDCs seem to be less sensitive to changes in global risk aversion than EMs. A host of robustness checks to alternative estimation methods, samples, and control variables confirm the baseline results. In terms of policy implications, these findings suggest that private capital inflows are likely to become more procyclical as LIDCs move along the development path, which could in turn raise several associated policy challenges, not the least concerning the reform of traditional monetary policy frameworks.
Gross Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets by Erlend Nier,Tahsin Saadi Sedik,Tomas Mondino Pdf
This paper assesses empirically the key drivers of private capital flows to a large sample of emerging market economies in the last decade. It analyzes the effect of the global financial cycle, measured by the VIX, on capital flows and investigates the role of fundamentals and country characteristics in mitigating or amplifying its effect. Using interaction models, we find the effect of the VIX to be non-linear. For low levels of the VIX, capital flows are driven by fundamental factors. During periods of stress, the VIX becomes the dominant driver of capital flows while other determinants, with the exception of interest rate differentials, lose statistical significance. Our results also suggest that the effect of global financial conditions on gross private capital flows increases with the host country’s level of financial sector development. Finally, our results imply that countries cannot fully insulate themselves from global financial shocks, unless creating a fragmented global financial system.
