Why Stock Markets Crash

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Why Stock Markets Crash

Didier Sornette
Why Stock Markets Crash Book PDF

Author : Didier Sornette
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 448 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2017-03-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781400885091

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Why Stock Markets Crash by Didier Sornette Pdf

The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.

Why Stock Markets Crash

Didier Sornette
Why Stock Markets Crash Book PDF

Author : Didier Sornette
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 448 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2017-03-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780691175959

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Why Stock Markets Crash by Didier Sornette Pdf

The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.

The Great Crash 1929

John Kenneth Galbraith
The Great Crash 1929 Book PDF

Author : John Kenneth Galbraith
Publisher : Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
Page : 228 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2009
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0547248164

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The Great Crash 1929 by John Kenneth Galbraith Pdf

The classic examination of the 1929 financial collapse, with an introduction by economist James K. Galbraith Of John Kenneth Galbraith's The Great Crash 1929, the Atlantic Monthly said: "Economic writings are seldom notable for their entertainment value, but this book is. Galbraith's prose has grace and wit, and he distills a good deal of sardonic fun from the whopping errors of the nation's oracles and the wondrous antics of the financial community." Originally published in 1955, Galbraith's book became an instant bestseller, and in the years since its release it has become the unparalleled point of reference for readers looking to understand American financial history."

Stock Market Crashes: Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them

Ziemba William T,Zhitlukhin Mikhail,Lleo Sebastien
Stock Market Crashes Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them Book PDF

Author : Ziemba William T,Zhitlukhin Mikhail,Lleo Sebastien
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 308 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2017-08-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789813223868

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Stock Market Crashes: Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them by Ziemba William T,Zhitlukhin Mikhail,Lleo Sebastien Pdf

This book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years. We present four models that have been successful in predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline predictions over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models are call option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett's value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby's stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small cap dominance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017. We study small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations. The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&P 500 graphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models. Contents: IntroductionDiscovery of the Bond–Stock Earnings Yield Differential ModelPrediction of the 2007–2009 Stock Market Crashes in the US, China and IcelandThe High Price–Earnings Stock Market Danger Approach of Campbell and Shiller versus the BSEYD ModelOther Prediction Models for the Big Crashes Averaging –25%Effect of Fed Meetings and Small-Cap DominanceUsing Zweig's Monetary and Momentum Models in the Modern EraAnalysis and Possible Prediction of Declines in the –5% to –15% RangeA Stopping Rule Model for Exiting Bubble-like Markets with ApplicationsA Simple Procedure to Incorporate Predictive Models in Stochastic Investment Models

The Causes of the 1929 Stock Market Crash

Harold Bierman Jr.
The Causes of the 1929 Stock Market Crash Book PDF

Author : Harold Bierman Jr.
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing USA
Page : 180 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 1998-04-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780313007996

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The Causes of the 1929 Stock Market Crash by Harold Bierman Jr. Pdf

Attempting to reveal the real causes of the 1929 stock market crash, Bierman refutes the popular belief that wild speculation had excessively driven up stock market prices and resulted in the crash. Although he acknowledges some prices of stocks such as utilities and banks were overprices, reasonable explanations exist for the level and increase of all other securities stock prices. Indeed, if stocks were overpriced in 1929, then they more even more overpriced in the current era of staggering growth in stock prices and investment in securities. The causes of the 1929 crash, Bierman argues, lie in an unfavorable decision by the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities coupled with the popular practice known as debt leverage in the 1920s corporate and investment arena. This book extends Bierman's argument in an earlier book, The Great Myths of 1929 and the Lessons to Be Learned (Greenwood, 1991), in which he discussed and refuted seven myths about 1929 but could not explain the crash. He now believes he has a reasonable explanation. He also examines the actions of Charles E. Mitchell and Sam Insull and their subsequent unjust criminal prosecution after the crash of the 1929 stock market.

The Rise of Carry: The Dangerous Consequences of Volatility Suppression and the New Financial Order of Decaying Growth and Recurring Crisis

Tim Lee,Jamie Lee,Kevin Coldiron
The Rise of Carry The Dangerous Consequences of Volatility Suppression and the New Financial Order of Decaying Growth and Recurring Crisis Book PDF

Author : Tim Lee,Jamie Lee,Kevin Coldiron
Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2019-12-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781260458411

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The Rise of Carry: The Dangerous Consequences of Volatility Suppression and the New Financial Order of Decaying Growth and Recurring Crisis by Tim Lee,Jamie Lee,Kevin Coldiron Pdf

Protect yourself from the next financial meltdown with this game-changing primer on financial markets, the economy—and the meteoric rise of carry. The financial shelves are filled with books that explain how popular carry trading has become in recent years. But none has revealed just how significant a role it plays in the global economy—until now. A groundbreaking book sure to leave its mark in the canon of investing literature, The Rise of Carry explains how carry trading has virtually shaped the global economic picture—one of decaying economic growth, recurring crises, wealth disparity, and, in too many places, social and political upheaval. The authors explain how carry trades work—particularly in the currency and stock markets—and provide a compelling case for how carry trades have come to dominate the entire global business cycle. They provide thorough analyses of critical but often overlooked topics and issues, including: •The active role stock prices play in causing recessions—as opposed to the common belief that recessions cause price crashes •The real driving force behind financial asset prices •The ways that carry, volatility selling, leverage, liquidity, and profitability affect the business cycle •How positive returns to carry over time are related to market volatility—and how central bank policies have supercharged these returns Simply put, carry trading is now the primary determinant of the global business cycle—a pattern of long, steady but unspectacular expansions punctuated by catastrophic crises. The Rise of Carry provides foundational knowledge and expert insights you need to protect yourself from what have come to be common market upheavals—as well as the next major crisis.

The Great Crash, 1929

John Kenneth Galbraith
The Great Crash 1929 Book PDF

Author : John Kenneth Galbraith
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 248 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 1961
Category : Depressions
ISBN : STANFORD:36105041737680

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The Great Crash, 1929 by John Kenneth Galbraith Pdf

John Kenneth Galbraith's classic study of the Wall Street Crash of 1929.

The Complete Financial History of Berkshire Hathaway

Adam J. Mead
The Complete Financial History of Berkshire Hathaway Book PDF

Author : Adam J. Mead
Publisher : Harriman House Limited
Page : 480 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2021-04-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780857199133

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The Complete Financial History of Berkshire Hathaway by Adam J. Mead Pdf

For the first time the complete financial history of Berkshire Hathaway is available under one cover in chronological format. Beginning at the origins of the predecessor companies in the textile industry, the reader can examine the development of the modern-day conglomerate year-by-year and decade-by-decade, watching as the struggling textile company morphs into what it has become today. This comprehensive analysis distils over 10,000 pages of research material, including Buffett’s Chairman’s letters, Berkshire Hathaway annual reports and SEC filings, annual meeting transcripts, subsidiary financials, and more. The analysis of each year is supplemented with Buffett’s own commentary where relevant, and examines all important acquisitions, investments, and other capital allocation decisions. The appendices contain balance sheets, income statements, statements of cash flows, and key ratios dating back to the 1930s, materials brought together for the first time. The structure of the book allows the new student to follow the logic, reasoning, and capital allocation decisions made by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger from the very beginning. Existing Berkshire shareholders and long-time observers will find new information and refreshing analysis, and a convenient reference guide to the decades of financial moves that built the modern-day respected enterprise that is Berkshire Hathaway.

A History of the United States in Five Crashes

Scott Nations
A History of the United States in Five Crashes Book PDF

Author : Scott Nations
Publisher : HarperCollins
Page : 367 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2017-06-13
Category : History
ISBN : 9780062467294

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A History of the United States in Five Crashes by Scott Nations Pdf

In this absorbing, smart, and accessible blend of economic and cultural history, Scott Nations, a longtime trader, financial engineer, and CNBC contributor, takes us on a journey through the five significant stock market crashes in the past century to reveal how they defined the United States today The Panic of 1907: When the Knickerbocker Trust Company failed, after a brazen attempt to manipulate the stock market led to a disastrous run on the banks, the Dow lost nearly half its value in weeks. Only billionaire J.P. Morgan was able to save the stock market. Black Tuesday (1929): As the newly created Federal Reserve System repeatedly adjusted interest rates in all the wrong ways, investment trusts, the darlings of that decade, became the catalyst that caused the bubble to burst, and the Dow fell dramatically, leading swiftly to the Great Depression. Black Monday (1987): When "portfolio insurance," a new tool meant to protect investments, instead led to increased losses, and corporate raiders drove stock prices above their real values, the Dow dropped an astonishing 22.6 percent in one day. The Great Recession (2008): As homeowners began defaulting on mortgages, investment portfolios that contained them collapsed, bringing the nation's largest banks, much of the economy, and the stock market down with them. The Flash Crash (2010): When one investment manager, using a runaway computer algorithm that was dangerously unstable and poorly understood, reacted to the economic turmoil in Greece, the stock market took an unprecedentedly sudden plunge, with the Dow shedding 998.5 points (roughly a trillion dollars in valuation) in just minutes. The stories behind the great crashes are filled with drama, human foibles, and heroic rescues. Taken together they tell the larger story of a nation reaching enormous heights of financial power while experiencing precipitous dips that alter and reset a market where millions of Americans invest their savings, and on which they depend for their futures. Scott Nations vividly shows how each of these major crashes played a role in America's political and cultural fabric, each providing painful lessons that have strengthened us and helped us to build the nation we know today. A History of the United States in Five Crashes clearly and compellingly illustrates the connections between these major financial collapses and examines the solid, clear-cut lessons they offer for preventing the next one.

Why Stock Markets Crash

Sornette Didier
Why Stock Markets Crash Book PDF

Author : Sornette Didier
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 444 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2006-01-01
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 8122417906

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Why Stock Markets Crash by Sornette Didier Pdf

The Scientific Study Of Complex Systems Has Transformed A Wide Range Of Disciplines In Recent Years, Enabling Researchers In Both The Natural And Social Science To Model And Predict Phenomena As Diverse As Earthquakes, Global Warming, Demographic Patterns, Financial Crises, And The Failure Of Materials. In This Book, Didier Sornette Boldly Applies His Varied Experience In These Areas To Propose A Simple, General Theory Of How, Why, And When Stock Markets Crash.Any Investor Or Investment Professional Who Seeks A Genuine Understanding Of Looming Financial Disasters Should Read This Book. Physicists, Geologists, Biologists, Economists, And Other Will Welcome Why Stock Markets Crash As A Highly Original Study Of The Exciting And Sometimes Fearsome But No Longer Quite So Unfathomable World Of Stock Markets.This Special Low-Priced Edition Is For Sale In India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Myanmar, Pakistan And Sri Lanka Only.

TAIL RISK HEDGING: Creating Robust Portfolios for Volatile Markets

Vineer Bhansali
TAIL RISK HEDGING Creating Robust Portfolios for Volatile Markets Book PDF

Author : Vineer Bhansali
Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
Page : 256 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2013-12-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780071791762

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TAIL RISK HEDGING: Creating Robust Portfolios for Volatile Markets by Vineer Bhansali Pdf

"TAIL RISKS" originate from the failure of mean reversion and the idealized bell curve of asset returns, which assumes that highly probable outcomes occur near the center of the curve and that unlikely occurrences, good and bad, happen rarely, if at all, at either "tail" of the curve. Ever since the global financial crisis, protecting investments against these severe tail events has become a priority for investors and money managers, but it is something Vineer Bhansali and his team at PIMCO have been doing for over a decade. In one of the first comprehensive and rigorous books ever written on tail risk hedging, he lays out a systematic approach to protecting portfolios from, and potentially benefiting from, rare yet severe market outcomes. Tail Risk Hedging is built on the author's practical experience applying macroeconomic forecasting and quantitative modeling techniques across asset markets. Using empirical data and charts, he explains the consequences of diversification failure in tail events and how to manage portfolios when this happens. He provides an easy-to-use, yet rigorous framework for protecting investment portfolios against tail risk and using tail hedging to play offense. Tail Risk Hedging explores how to: Generate profits from volatility and illiquidity during tail-risk events in equity and credit markets Buy attractively priced tail hedges that add value to a portfolio and quantify basis risk Interpret the psychology of investors in option pricing and portfolio construction Customize explicit hedges for retirement investments Hedge risk factors such as duration risk and inflation risk Managing tail risk is today's most significant development in risk management, and this thorough guide helps you access every aspect of it. With the time-tested and mathematically rigorous strategies described here, including pieces of computer code, you get access to insights to help mitigate portfolio losses in significant downturns, create explosive liquidity while unhedged participants are forced to sell, and create more aggressive yet tail-risk-focused portfolios. The book also gives you a unique, higher level view of how tail risk is related to investing in alternatives, and of derivatives such as zerocost collars and variance swaps. Volatility and tail risks are here to stay, and so should your clients' wealth when you use Tail Risk Hedging for managing portfolios. PRAISE FOR TAIL RISK HEDGING: "Managing, mitigating, and even exploiting the risk of bad times are the most important concerns in investments. Bhansali puts tail risk hedging and tail risk management under a microscope--pricing, implementation, and showing how we can fine-tune our risk exposures, which are all crucial ways in how we can better weather our bad times." -- ANDREW ANG, Ann F. Kaplan Professor of Business at Columbia University "This book is critical and accessible reading for fiduciaries, financial consultants and investors interested in both theoretical foundations and practical considerations for how to frame hedging downside risk in portfolios. It is a tremendous resource for anyone involved in asset allocation today." -- CHRISTOPHER C. GECZY, Ph.D., Academic Director, Wharton Wealth Management Initiative and Adj. Associate Professor of Finance, The Wharton School "Bhansali's book demonstrates how tail risk hedging can work, be concretely implemented, and lead to higher returns so that it is possible to have your cake and eat it too! A must read for the savvy investor." -- DIDIER SORNETTE, Professor on the Chair of Entrepreneurial Risks, ETH Zurich

Mass Production, the Stock Market Crash, and the Great Depression

Bernard C. Beaudreau
Mass Production the Stock Market Crash and the Great Depression Book PDF

Author : Bernard C. Beaudreau
Publisher : iUniverse
Page : 206 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2004-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780595323340

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Mass Production, the Stock Market Crash, and the Great Depression by Bernard C. Beaudreau Pdf

Economists and historians view the events of the 1920s, the stock market boom and crash, the Great Depression and the New Deal, as being largely independent. This work presents an integrated, empirically-consistent view of this important period arguing that all of these events can be traced back to a paradigm technology shock, namely the electrification of U.S. industry from 1910 to 1926. The author goes from electrification through the stock market boom to the tariffs of the late 20s to the stock market crash and depression followed by the National Industrial Recovery Act in 1933.

The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1929 Was Not a Bubble

Bernard C. Beaudreau
The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1929 Was Not a Bubble Book PDF

Author : Bernard C. Beaudreau
Publisher : Cambridge Scholars Publishing
Page : 146 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2019-10-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781527542037

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The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1929 Was Not a Bubble by Bernard C. Beaudreau Pdf

In the aftermath of the stock market crash of 1929, Yale University Economics Professor Irving Fisher remained steadfast in his view that the boom in prices had been warranted, pointing to the myriad innovations of the 1920s, including the introduction of the electric unit drive and utility-supplied power. Dismissed by most, this view has since given way to Alan Greenspan’s view of irrational exuberance. This book presents a series of contemporary and period writings which rehabilitate the fundamentals view, showing why Irving Fisher was right. Whereas Fisher was unable to provide a convincing narrative for the crash, these writings point to the Hoover Administration’s tariff initiative, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Bill, as the key element which contributed to both the boom and the crash.

Black Tuesday

Barbara Silberdick Feinberg
Black Tuesday Book PDF

Author : Barbara Silberdick Feinberg
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 64 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 1995
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1562945742

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Black Tuesday by Barbara Silberdick Feinberg Pdf

Discusses events contributing to the stock market crash of 1929, the Great Depression that followed, and the steps that were taken to revive the nation.

A First-Class Catastrophe

Diana B. Henriques
A First Class Catastrophe Book PDF

Author : Diana B. Henriques
Publisher : Macmillan + ORM
Page : 373 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2017-09-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781627791656

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A First-Class Catastrophe by Diana B. Henriques Pdf

The definitive account of the crash of 1987, a cautionary tale of how the U.S. financial system nearly collapsed--from the bestselling author of The Wizard of Lies Monday, October 19, 1987, was by far the worst day in Wall Street history. The market fell 22.6 percent – almost twice as bad as the worst day of 1929 – equal to a one-day loss of nearly 5,000 points today. Black Monday was more than seven years in the making and threatened nearly every U.S. financial institution. Drawing on superlative archival research and dozens of original interviews Diana B. Henriques weaves a tale of missed opportunities, market delusions, and destructive actions that stretched from the “silver crisis” of 1980 to turf battles in Washington, a poisonous rivalry between the New York Stock Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and the almost-fatal success of two California professors whose idea for reducing market risk spun terribly out of control. As the story hurtles forward, the players struggle to forestall a looming market meltdown and unexpected heroes step in to avert total disaster. For thirty years, investors, regulators, and bankers have failed to heed the lessons of 1987, even as the same patterns have resurfaced, most spectacularly in the financial crisis of 2008. A First-Class Catastrophe offers a new way of looking not only at the past, but at our financial future as well.